阿拉伯基督教徒与中东政治

历史上,中东地区的阿拉伯基督教徒长期处于“受保护人”的地位,但他们仍为阿拉伯文化的发展作出了贡献。近代以来,他们引进西方近代价值观念,积极投身于民族解放运动,推动了阿拉伯文化的复兴和民族意识的觉醒。现代民族国家建立后,阿拉伯基督教徒首次获得了平等的公民地位。他们积极投身于新生的阿拉伯国家社会建设,并有力地促进了国家的政治稳定与发展。鉴于阿拉伯基督教徒的特殊身份,国际社会对他们寄予厚望,期望他们能够在基督教-伊斯兰教、阿拉伯-西方文明对话中发挥积极作用。     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

中东国家抗争政治的特点分析

抗争政治提供了民主转型的一个视角。根据查尔斯·蒂利的抗争政治理论,2010年底以来中东国家政局动荡中,体制外有一定认同感的集体行动者为抗争主体;客体为政府及其决策者;抗争目的是表达追求自由、民主、民生等公共诉求;具有对抗性、偶然性和创新性特点;并以媒体等信息技术的间接劝说为主。虽然抗争政治对于改变人们的政治认同、培育积极的公民意识以及构建公民社会等方面,有一定的推动作用,但抗争政治与民主化并不具有必然的因果联系。受制于民主与权威之间的矛盾与斗争,中东国家要选择符合现实国情的民主道路可谓任重而道远。     

Global Politics: The Middle East Remains the Darkest Place in 2015

Over the past four years,political changes in the Middle East have always appeared to be unexpected and dazzling.Anti-governmentArab Springmovements against strongman politics broke out in 2011;political Islam gained power through elections in Tunisia and Egypt in2012;an Egyptian military coup occurred in 2013;and in 2014 theIslamic Statesprung up in Iraq and Syria.All these seemingly irrational episodes in fact share an inherent logical relationship.Looking ahead to2015,there is no end in sight to the military conflicts currently rife in the Middle East.This includes civil wars such as those in Iraq,Syria,and Libya,and the Yemen and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.There is no hope for     

"文明对话与中东发展"——2007年中国中东学会学术研讨会综述

2007年8月25~26日,由中国中东学会、上海社会科学院欧亚研究所、上海世界史学会和上海国际问题研究中心联合举办的“文明对话与中东发展”学术研讨会在上海成功举行。作为中国中东学会年会及上海国际关系学会建立50周年的重要学术活动之一,20多家单位的近60名专家学者参加了这次会议。与会单位分别是外交部、中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所、中国现代国际关系研究院、西北大学、云南大学、西南大学、河南师范大学、上海国际问题研究所、上海外国语大学、上海国际关系学会、上海社科院和上海国际问题研究中心等。会议开幕式由时任上海社科院欧…     

The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution

The author contends that the Arab Spring has provided an opening for the Gulf Cooperation Council as a group and for Saudi Arabia as a long-time aspiring leader of the Arab world to try to expand their regional influence and global profile. An already weakened Arab state system, he argues, has been once again weakened by the sweeping wave of rebellion.     

中东国家经济体制改革与民主政治建设的启迪

从20世纪70年代开始,中东国家先后进行了经济体制改革,取得了一定的成效,但也产生贫富差别扩大等问题。这一波经济体制改革有其合理的一面,但被西方媒体蒙上意识形态的色彩。美国在中东地区推行的民主化改造受挫。一个国家的民主政治建设,需要符合本国的国情,才会有成效。     

当前中东局势及中国与中东关系

近年来,中东局势持续动荡,出现了一些新的特点和趋势,即多点地区冲突同时爆发,互相呼应,互相影响;地区政治力量出现新的消长变化。政治伊斯兰势力上升,传统大国地位下降;美国对中东新战略严重受挫。在可预测的未来,中东热点问题将持续成为地区动荡之源。其中伊拉克政局的走向将对未来中东形势的发展产生重要影响。伊斯兰势力与世俗政权之间对权力与影响力的争夺将更趋激烈,地区内激进势力将更趋活跃,极端思潮蔓延,并有向地区外扩展的趋势。同时,美国在中东影响力下降,难以完成对中东地区进行民主改造的使命。国际和中东形势的变化,使中国和中东国家分别面临新的不同的国际环境,对中东和阿拉伯国家的内政、外交产生深刻影响,也给中国带来新的机遇和挑战。     

中东民主变革与美国的大中东倡议

20世纪八九十年代之交 ,推动中东地区的民主化一度成为美国政策的主要目标。然而 ,民主化可能意味着伊斯兰化这样一种可怕前景有效地吓阻了美国在中东推进政治变革的热情。九一一事件之后 ,中东的民主化重回美国对中东外交的议事日程 ,不仅如此 ,美国似乎把改变政府、民主变革、国家安全这样一些概念联系在一起 ,试图通过一项被称为大中东倡议的综合行动计划 ,实现对中东、乃至整个穆斯林世界的民主化改造。美国的大中东倡议有可能使中东地区陷入另一场动乱之中。     

China and the Middle East

The exchanges between China and the Middle East are profound. In 500 B. C, the world-famous Silk Road was built. In 700 B. C, there were two great empires on the Asian Continent.     

中国中东学会2008年会暨中国中东研究三十年回顾与展望研讨会纪要

2008年12月22～24日,中国中东学会2008年会暨中国中东研究30年回顾与展望研讨会在昆明召开,与会代表来自中东学会数十个理事单位,其中有中国中东学会会长、中国社会科学院西亚非洲所所长杨光研究员,副会长、云南大学副校长肖宪教授,副会长、中国国际问题研究院李绍先研究员,云南大学国际关系研究院院长刘稚教授,     

Multipolarity and instability in the Middle East

Tensions have long been a feature of the international relations of the Middle East. After the 2011 Arab uprisings, regional instability is being driven by a confluence of three interrelated developments. First, the weakening role of the United States as a power balancer in the Middle East, combined with the larger global context, has provided assumptions about threats and new opportunities for local and other actors to pursue strategic and foreign policy objectives that have deepened tensions and regional competition. Second, there has been a juxtaposing of power multipolarity with ideological multipolarity, itself a source of increased instability, with two of the regional powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, fanning opposing sectarian flames to further their respective strategic objectives. Third, this strategic competition is being played out in several newly weakened or collapsing states such as Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Similarly, the regional powers’ competition in previously weakened states, such as Lebanon and Iraq, has intensified due to the acquisition of new, sectarian dimensions. These developments are likely to perpetuate instability and tensions in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

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Jordan: Between the Arab Spring and the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Arab Spring has fundamentally shifted the strategic balance in the Middle East. As all sides rush to ensure that their interests will be secured, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has emerged as a key battleground between those who would like to see a more democratic region, and those who would like to maintain economic stability. On one side of this debate is the Gulf Cooperation Council, led by Saudi Arabia, that views democratic reform as a threat to economic stability. On the other side are the forces of the Arab Spring, which have called for political reform in states such as Egypt, Syria, and Libya, even if these reforms come at the expense of stability. This article examines the various forces, both domestic and international, that are attempting to influence Jordan, and through it, the balance of power in the Arab World.     

Trends in Middle Eastern Politics

The politics in the Middle East has now entered into a new era from rigid, stagnant and stable period into a vibrant, unrest and conflict stage. This is not only a window of hope but also a thorny road, which can be called creative destruction. Facing new opportunities and challenges of its policies in the Middle East, China should promote research and discussion in depth.