阿拉伯基督教徒与中东政治

历史上,中东地区的阿拉伯基督教徒长期处于“受保护人”的地位,但他们仍为阿拉伯文化的发展作出了贡献。近代以来,他们引进西方近代价值观念,积极投身于民族解放运动,推动了阿拉伯文化的复兴和民族意识的觉醒。现代民族国家建立后,阿拉伯基督教徒首次获得了平等的公民地位。他们积极投身于新生的阿拉伯国家社会建设,并有力地促进了国家的政治稳定与发展。鉴于阿拉伯基督教徒的特殊身份,国际社会对他们寄予厚望,期望他们能够在基督教-伊斯兰教、阿拉伯-西方文明对话中发挥积极作用。     

The Arab Uprisings and the Geopolitics of the Middle East

The contest between Saudi Arabia and Iran played out in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, postwar Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Yemen and Bahrain, has shaped the geopolitics of the region since the 2003 US invasion and occupation of Iraq. The Arab uprisings intensified this geopolitical contest and spread it to Syria. The sectarianisation of the region’s geopolitical battles, and the instrumental use of some of the uprisings for geopolitical ends, has hardened sectarian sentiments across the region, complicated post-authoritarian democratic transitions, and, at least in Syria’s case, transformed its popular uprising into a veritable civil war.     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

中东国家抗争政治的特点分析

抗争政治提供了民主转型的一个视角。根据查尔斯·蒂利的抗争政治理论,2010年底以来中东国家政局动荡中,体制外有一定认同感的集体行动者为抗争主体;客体为政府及其决策者;抗争目的是表达追求自由、民主、民生等公共诉求;具有对抗性、偶然性和创新性特点;并以媒体等信息技术的间接劝说为主。虽然抗争政治对于改变人们的政治认同、培育积极的公民意识以及构建公民社会等方面,有一定的推动作用,但抗争政治与民主化并不具有必然的因果联系。受制于民主与权威之间的矛盾与斗争,中东国家要选择符合现实国情的民主道路可谓任重而道远。     

Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb

After the 2011 Arab Spring, a pressing concern is to understand why some authoritarian regimes remain in power while others fall when confronted with similar difficulties. Earlier representations of the success of authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa generated common misperceptions concerning politically effective behaviour in the region. These views, shared by local autocrats and international actors alike, led them to propose ad hoc policy reorientations in response to a contagion of popular uprisings. In their turn, these policy responses directly contributed to the failure of authoritarianism and the production of democratic revolutions in several countries of the region. Such revolutionary options, although structured by the (lack of) opportunities for contestation present in each polity, are not predicable events as they depend on elite mis-assessments of the situation to be effective (as in Tunisia, Libya). Reciprocally, when reform pathways are made available by authoritarian regimes, contestation can be channelled into non-revolutionary political action (as in Morocco, Algeria).     

Beyond the Arab revolts: conceptualizing civil society in the Middle East and North Africa

How do we make sense of the potential role of civil society in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in bringing the region into a new era of reform and political participation? This article critically examines how the civil society landscape in the region has been conceptualized in the past and proposes a new typology of MENA civil society actors. I employ this typology in two cases – the revolutionary uprising in Egypt in 2011 and “evolutionary” long-term efforts to broaden the space for political participation in Lebanon. Comparing these two very different cases illustrates the utility of a typology of civil society actors (CSAs) that (a) emphasizes temporary coalitions between diverse actors; (b) highlights the both contentious and collaborative struggles through which political change actually happens; and (c) recognizes that different types of CSAs face different constraints and opportunities. I argue that employing such a typology can help structure comparison between disparate cases of civil society efforts for democratization and bring to the forefront issues of authenticity and legitimacy – challenges emanating not only from an oppressive state, but from within civil society itself.     

Global Politics: The Middle East Remains the Darkest Place in 2015

Over the past four years,political changes in the Middle East have always appeared to be unexpected and dazzling.Anti-governmentArab Springmovements against strongman politics broke out in 2011;political Islam gained power through elections in Tunisia and Egypt in2012;an Egyptian military coup occurred in 2013;and in 2014 theIslamic Statesprung up in Iraq and Syria.All these seemingly irrational episodes in fact share an inherent logical relationship.Looking ahead to2015,there is no end in sight to the military conflicts currently rife in the Middle East.This includes civil wars such as those in Iraq,Syria,and Libya,and the Yemen and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.There is no hope for     

"文明对话与中东发展"——2007年中国中东学会学术研讨会综述

2007年8月25~26日,由中国中东学会、上海社会科学院欧亚研究所、上海世界史学会和上海国际问题研究中心联合举办的“文明对话与中东发展”学术研讨会在上海成功举行。作为中国中东学会年会及上海国际关系学会建立50周年的重要学术活动之一,20多家单位的近60名专家学者参加了这次会议。与会单位分别是外交部、中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所、中国现代国际关系研究院、西北大学、云南大学、西南大学、河南师范大学、上海国际问题研究所、上海外国语大学、上海国际关系学会、上海社科院和上海国际问题研究中心等。会议开幕式由时任上海社科院欧…     

The Arab Spring and the European Response

Europeans enthusiastically embraced the Arab Spring. However, the EU and its member states have lacked significant influence in a neighbouring region in turmoil. The EU has not devised new and more appropriate approaches towards the region, but rather relied on its traditional tools and frameworks. The Eurozone’s financial crisis and threat perceptions have quickly underminded the readiness of EU member states to contribute meaningfully to Arab transformations with money, market access and mobility. In addition, European support has not been equally welcomed across the region, and delays in terms of building empowered governments have prevented a quick impact. Moreover, the violent power struggles triggered by the Arab Spring have revealed the EU’s weakness with regard to effective conflict prevention and timely crisis management – and thus created an environment averse to democratic transformation and regional stabilisation.     

Transatlantic Democracy Promotion and the Arab Spring

The Arab Awakening can be seen as a symptom of failure of US and EU democracy promotion policies in the region. By identifying democracy with ‘liberal democracy’ – a discursively powerful political move – the contingent character of democracy has been lost. The US and the EU, the main promoters of a neoliberal understanding of democracy, have sided with the wrong side of history. And because they have failed to deeply revise the philosophical underpinnings of their policies, even after 2011, they risk another, even bigger, policy failure.     

The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution

The author contends that the Arab Spring has provided an opening for the Gulf Cooperation Council as a group and for Saudi Arabia as a long-time aspiring leader of the Arab world to try to expand their regional influence and global profile. An already weakened Arab state system, he argues, has been once again weakened by the sweeping wave of rebellion.     

中东国家经济体制改革与民主政治建设的启迪

从20世纪70年代开始,中东国家先后进行了经济体制改革,取得了一定的成效,但也产生贫富差别扩大等问题。这一波经济体制改革有其合理的一面,但被西方媒体蒙上意识形态的色彩。美国在中东地区推行的民主化改造受挫。一个国家的民主政治建设,需要符合本国的国情,才会有成效。     

From Cold War to Arab Spring: mapping the effects of paradigm shifts on the nature and dynamics of US democracy assistance to the Middle East and North Africa

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has articulated and implemented explicit strategies of democracy promotion by providing assistance to governments, political parties, and other non-governmental groups and organizations all over the world. One particularly challenging region has been the Middle East and North Africa, where democratic development and democracy aid opportunities have been limited and constrained by a variety of factors related to social, economic, and political characteristics of the region and policy priorities of the United States. This article examines the impact of two major paradigm shifts – the end of the Cold War (1989) and the 9/11 episode (2001) – on the nature, purposes, and consequences of US democracy assistance to the Middle East. Examining democracy aid allocations, social, democratic and political factors in the region, and other variables, the analysis traces the shifts in aid strategies, purposes, and recipients generated by these paradigm shifts and assesses the impact of such assistance on the politics of the region. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for US democracy promotion policies and the impact of the Arab Spring events as a potential third break point.