Islamic State Reflects the Darker Side of International Politics

In revolutions, it is crucial to identify who is the enemy and who is the friend. But when we look at Islamic State it is difficult to distinguish between the two. If there are only two participants, and the relationship is linear, there is no problem. But when there are multiple players, the problem becomes complex. When each player has many targets, and these targets overlap, conflict and vary, the friend-foe relationship becomes multi-dimensional and is often stereotyped. Not only is it complicated but also it can change widely over time and circumstances. A good example is the political game vis-a-vis ISIL. On the surface, most countries and factions regard ISIL as the enemy, but actually the true relationship is very complicated.     

Sino-US Relations： Dependence and Fragility

The twenty years after the end of the Cold War have witnessed a transformation of the mode of Sino-US relations from Security Issue-dominated to Complex Interdependence. Today, conflicts of interest between China and the US can be classified and resolved through normal channels, which protects the roots of good Sino-US relations instead of constantly placing them under threat. However, shifts in the relative power of the two countries, and shifting preferences in their interests continue to highlight the fragility of Sino-US relations. China needs to manage this fragile relationship carefully if it is to achieve its aim of a peaceful rise.     

The Confessional State in International Politics: Tudor England,Religion, and the Eclipse of Dynasticism

Whilst religion and collective identity have become issues of central concern to international relations scholars, dynastic concerns and national interests still dominate their analyses of early modern international politics. This analysis contributes to the constructivist emphasis on collective identity to foreign policy by examining Tudor England in light of the concept of confessionalisation. Based on the recent historiography of Tudor England, this analysis demonstrates the importance of religion in defining not only the collective identity of international actors, but also their foreign policies, choice of alliances, and, more generally, their international outlook. Through such a lens, it seeks to draw analyses of the confessional state away from their focus on domestic state formation to the “external” dimension of confessionalisation and its importance for international politics.     

发展中国家经济脆弱性的根源及其化解

20世纪80年代以来,世界经济出现了一种“边缘震荡”的新现象,发展中国家维护经济安全的难度明显增大,其中有相当一部分国家的经济发展甚至陷入了某种恶性循环,并成为国际经济体系周期性调节的减震阀。发展中国家经济脆弱性的根本原因在于缺少控制资本积累过程的能力,而国际经济体系的惯性制约更强化了对这些国家经济安全的威胁。发展中国家经济未来发展不仅取决于经济体制的创新,而且也取决于在适应全球化趋势的同时保持内部经济结构的自我协调。对于中国的现代化进程,也要充分考虑诸多可能遇到的困难和风险,避免过于简单的线性思维,以求立于不败之地。     

关于勃列日涅夫时期的“官僚特权阶层”问题

苏联的“官僚特权阶层”越来越引起学者们的关注。关于勃列日涅夫时期“官僚特殊阶层”问题谈论的有很多 ,但还不见专门的论述。苏联“官僚特权阶层”的形成有其制度上的原因 ,它形成于斯大林时期 ,到勃列日涅夫时期发展到顶峰。勃列日涅夫以“稳定”当头 ,不思改革 ,带头奢靡腐化 ,致使这个掌握人民权力的阶层终于走向人民的反面。     

“规模政治”:全球化背景下国际政治的新现象

"规模政治"是从经济学中借鉴过来的一个新概念,它是单个国际政治行为体在对外关系中由于自身和外在的作用而逐渐形成的一种理想化模式。"规模政治"与"规模经济"一样,都是通过数量的增加而使成本得到降低。全方位多边外交和合作型国际机制是使国际政治向更有利于"规模政治"方向发展的两大动力。在全球化的背景之下,国际机制特别是其中的合作型机制使国际政治越来越向"规模政治"方向发展,并同之前以权力和冲突为特征的国际政治大不一样了,国际关系越来越讲究互利、双赢、和谐。     

Predicting Revolt: Fragility Indexes and the Level of Violence and Instability in the Arab Spring

This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.     

强权政治与巴勒斯坦问题

强权政治是封建帝国、殖民主义和霸权主义者给中东留下的毒菌,长期影响中东国际关系的正常发展.在中东的核心问题——巴勒斯坦问题的形成和发展过程中充斥着强权政治和实力原则.在当前的中东和平进程中,强权政治仍然发挥作用.正确认识强权政治对巴以和谈的影响,有利于推进中东和平进程,有利于中东国际关系的健康发展.     

海湾政治的石油味与海湾石油的政治味

海湾石油具有浓厚的政治色彩 ,而海湾政治亦离不开石油味。美国的石油利益高于伊拉克的主权 ,这是美国领导人“石油思维”的重要特点。利用“石油武器”与美国进行斗争 ,是萨达姆手中的一张王牌。美国对伊拉克采取军事行动 ,必然对世界石油市场产生影响 ,但影响是有限的。通过控制石油来确立霸权地位的思维已经过时 ,与当今世界经济和政治生活的现实不符。     

Bureaucratic façade and political realities of disarmament and demobilisation in Afghanistan

Internationally sponsored disarmament and demobilisation in Afghanistan was characterised by a marked divergence between the bureaucratic process designed by the UN and the political reality of disarmament. The bureaucratic process had several flaws of its own, which were particularly obvious in the case of DIAG, but the main reason for the substantial failure of disarmament was the absence of political will among key Afghan partners. International players in the process choose to compromise on ratherunfavourable terms, saving the façade of demobilisation thanks to the formal disbandment of the militias incorporated under the Ministry of Defence, but in fact allowing thousands of militias to continue operating throughout the country. The article shows how the very limited impact of DDR and even more so DIAG was already obvious in the early stages of the process and was deliberately ignored. The article concludes that the compromise could at least have achieved some limited aims, such as delegitimising the militias, had not many of their leaders been allowed to compete successfully for parliamentary seats shortly afterwards.     

Theodore Roosevelt and the Politics of the Roosevelt Corollary

There is a broad consensus about the ways in which public opinion and domestic politics influenced American foreign policy during Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency. Historians generally concur that the American public was ignorant about and uninterested in international politics. They also agree that the president’s perception of public sentiment and his reading of the political landscape played essentially negative roles; that is, they were constraints at the point of implementation, rather than factors that shaped the substance of his policy, and were unquestionably a hindrance. Taking a fresh look at the origins of the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine raises questions about this interpretation. Roosevelt believed that Americans were passionately opposed to the blockade of Venezuela by European Powers in late 1902 and early 1903 and viewed it as a threat to the Monroe Doctrine. This perception and Roosevelt’s 1904 presidential campaign therefore significantly affected the timing and content of the Roosevelt Corollary.     

Economic Sanctions and the Politics of IMF Lending

What effect do economic sanctions have on the IMF lending decisions? Though countries under economic sanctions often face significant economic and financial difficulties, no comprehensive research to date has explored whether the IMF as a de facto lender of last resort intervenes in those countries in need. We posit that economic coercion is likely to hinder the target’s access to IMF credits as sanctioning (sender) countries are likely to use their political influence in the IMF to deny funds to the destabilized target economies. To assess the empirical merits of the hypothesis, we combine data on the IMF lending with the economic sanctions data for 120 emerging market economies from 1975 to 2005. Results indicate that target countries are less likely to receive IMF funds, especially when under sanctions by the United States and international institutions. Our findings contradict the conventional wisdom that the IMF is tasked with providing lifelines to member governments in need of help to ease their short-term balance of payment problems. Further, as much as IMF loans can be used as positive inducements to acquire a country’s strategic cooperation, we show that they might also be used by sender countries as a punishment tool against target countries to amplify the impact of sanctions regimes.     

Global Politics and the International Power Configuration

Global politics (including global politico-economics) and the international order are vast and confusing topics that have attracted many commentators. I will try to bring some fresh meaning in my argument today and so I will first make a broad and in-depth review of recent developments in several major aspects in order to introduce some     

教会政治与卢旺达大屠杀

在1994年卢旺达大屠杀中,卢旺达基督教教会深深地卷入了这场血腥暴行。教堂成为主要的杀戮场之一,许多教会的神职人员甚至直接参与了对图西人的屠杀。教会之所以支持大屠杀,原因在于从历史上看教会就与国家政权保持密不可分的关系,并且种族歧视和斗争就存在于教会内部。此外,在内战和民主运动兴起的这样一个特殊历史时期,就像政府官员企图利用大屠杀作为保持权力的手段一样,教会也利用大屠杀作为打击竞争对手、应对内部民主化挑战的重要手段。卢旺达大屠杀的实例说明,推进教会民主化的斗争已经成为非洲大陆政治改革运动的重要组成部分。     

阿拉伯基督教徒与中东政治

历史上,中东地区的阿拉伯基督教徒长期处于“受保护人”的地位,但他们仍为阿拉伯文化的发展作出了贡献。近代以来,他们引进西方近代价值观念,积极投身于民族解放运动,推动了阿拉伯文化的复兴和民族意识的觉醒。现代民族国家建立后,阿拉伯基督教徒首次获得了平等的公民地位。他们积极投身于新生的阿拉伯国家社会建设,并有力地促进了国家的政治稳定与发展。鉴于阿拉伯基督教徒的特殊身份,国际社会对他们寄予厚望,期望他们能够在基督教-伊斯兰教、阿拉伯-西方文明对话中发挥积极作用。     

伊拉克问题与美国政治

伊拉克战争是新世纪美国安全战略和中东政策调整的产物 ,这次调整既有九一一事件的冲击、新保守主义势力上升等现实因素 ,也有冷战结束后国际格局变迁等历史动因。美国虽然在伊拉克顺利地实现了“政权更迭” ,但在伊拉克政治、安全、社会等方面的重建却面临严峻局势 ,这种局面又对美国政治产生重大影响。以伊拉克问题为核心的美国外交政策辩论是今年大选的一个主要议题。伊拉克局势的发展和小布什政府的政策调整不仅对这次大选有直接影响 ,而且影响新一届政府在伊拉克乃至中东问题上的政策走向。     

Studying the New Communication of Politics

A research agenda set forth in the 1975 book Political Communication is well suited for study in an era when conventional mass communication gives way to less centralized channels. Features of this approach include a focus on behavior and cognitions rather than inferred attitudes, close attention to measurement of media experience, conceptualization of curvilinear processes that occur over time, comparative theorizing that can be tested across different national systems, and reconceptualization of communication as a process defined more by its functions than whether it occurs via mass media or interpersonal channels.