Advance Agent of the Truman Doctrine: The United States,The New York Times,and the Greek Civil War

Democratic theorists observe high correlations between public opinion and government policy, but it is difficult to determine the direction of causation. This article concerns the relative abilities of government officials and media owners to influence political discourse. Both affected The New York Times' coverage of the Greek civil war before the declaration of the Truman Doctrine. When the Truman administration leaked its intention to intervene in Greece and offered a new interpretation of the civil war, the Times instantly adopted the new theme. The Times had the resources and opportunity to challenge government arguments, but its correspondent in Athens suppressed available information that contradicted official statements, and the publisher supported his reporter despite obvious partisanship. Top reporters maintained close ties with government officials, and they promoted American interventionism in the pages of the newspaper. And a seamless connection between editorials and news coverage reflects ownership's support for the Truman Doctrine. Government's influence may be strongest when officials and media owners share interests and values. And the temporal order raises implications for the relationship between opinion and policy: Policymakers may select new policies first and then move public opinion to win support for planned policy changes.     

驴攻象守:美国2006年中期选举前瞻

即将到来的美国2006年中期选举是2008年总统选举之前最重要的一次选举。其结果将决定美国国会的政党分野和权力布局,而且将影响2008年总统选举的议题设定和民调走向。截至目前,本次中期选举呈现出三个特点:选民普遍对现任议员不满,大部分选民思变心切;共和党的支持率下降,相对多数的选民表示支持民主党;布什总统的民意支持率明显偏低。伊拉克问题和国内经济问题是本次中期选举的中心议题。从目前的选举形势来看,民主党方面将略占优势,整体选情呈现“驴攻象守”态势。     

From Media Attention to Negotiated Peace: Human Rights Reporting and Civil War Duration

Violations of human rights in the context of a conflict have in recent years received an increasing amount of attention from the international media. Yet how such media attention influences conflict remains understudied and, a priori, uncertain. On the one hand, media coverage of human rights abuses may constitute “naming and shaming” that might temper hostilities. On the other hand, such coverage might spark intransigence and complicate negotiations among conflicting parties, thereby hindering rather than hastening peace. This article tries to adjudicate among these and other possibilities by exploring how media reporting on human rights abuses influences the development of conflicts. The analysis reveals that such reporting is associated with shorter conflicts and negotiated agreements between fighting parties.     

Fracas in Caracas: Latin American Diplomatic Resistance to United States Intervention in Guatemala in 1954

The Eisenhower Administration claimed a diplomatic triumph—and a mandate to overthrow the elected government of Guatemala—after the Tenth Inter-American Conference held in Caracas, Venezuela, in March 1954, when 17 nations voted for an American resolution condemning international Communism. This article disputes the official story and some recent scholarly depictions of the conference. Caracas was the scene of intense Latin American opposition to the American agenda. Vote-buying was rampant as Washington made hundreds of millions of dollars worth of concessions to individual countries. Nonetheless, amendments pushed through by Latin American diplomats transformed the interventionist American resolution into a strong statement against intervention. The American “triumph” was actually a fiasco that called into sharp relief the difference between United States and Latin American understandings of the inter-American system, demonstrating Latin American diplomatic resistance to intervention and the limits of diplomacy's potential to constrain the actions of the most powerful American state.     

美国与冷战后的联合国维持和平行动

冷战结束期间及冷战后是联合国维和行动急剧增加的时期,我们看到大量分析冷战后维和行动形势变化的材料,这无疑是必要的。但形势中一个重大的因素,就是冷战剩下的惟一超级大国美国的动向。很少有人把联合国维和行动面对的形势变化同美国冷战后的战略策略变化联系起来,本文拟就此略加填补。     

Eroding Democracy: Federal Intervention in Russia's Gubernatorial Elections

Under some conditions, electoral politics may undermine democratization, even when the elections themselves adequately meet the usual standards. To illustrate this point, the article examines the dynamics of gubernatorial elections held in the 89 regions that comprise the Russian Federation during the first term of President Vladimir Putin. The analysis considers whether pressure from the federal executive and strategic changes in election timing influenced the results of these elections. The study contends that Putin's experience with gubernatorial elections led him to question their value and, ultimately, to eliminate them. Meanwhile, several of Russia's governors sent clear signals that they did not value free and fair elections. Since governors presiding over Russia's poorest regions were also the ones most likely to be insulated from public accountability, voters saw little value in defending the institution of gubernatorial elections. This helps explain the lack of public outcry following Putin's decision.     

关于美国的战争特性及其影响

东北亚是当今世界冷战残留最严重的地区,历史恩怨与现实利益相互交织,传统安全与地缘战略共同作用。美国是对东北亚和平、安全与稳定最具影响力的域外大国,从历史和现实的角度,分析战争对美国发展的影响,对我们认识美国的全球特别是亚太地区政治、经济及军事政策,具有重要意义。美国在战争中成长和强大,通过战争维护和巩固世界霸权。美国频繁发动战争的原因包括:没有真正能与之匹敌的对手,选举政治迫使政治人物"讨好选民"与"做点什么",议会对总统进行战争缺乏有效的制度制约,右翼保守势力对战争议题的操弄,在全球进行能源及资源利益争夺。美国虽然不时对战争进行反思,但综观历史,人们对美国领导人能否抵挡住因发动战争所带来的种种利益的诱惑,不能不保持怀疑。     

Lincoln's Gamble: Fear of Intervention and the Onset of the American Civil War

Few studies consider how civil war onset can be influenced by third parties and by the belligerents’ perceptions of third party actions. I show that the American Civil War, a war largely ignored by civil war scholars, sheds insights into how anticipation of third party intervention influences the decision-making process within the target state and how the possibility of third party intervention can influence the onset and escalation of civil war. The American Civil War is an especially interesting case for exploring the role of third parties in civil war initiation since, unlike most cases considered by the existing civil war literature, the American Civil War is an instance of nonintervention: the third parties (the European powers in this case) mattered despite staying out of the conflict. Specifically, I argue that fear of foreign recognition (particularly by the British) played an underappreciated (if not the decisive) role in the earliest stages of the American Civil War by influencing Lincoln's decision to authorize the first major battle of the war at Manassas Junction, Virginia.     

苏丹内战中的宗教因素

苏丹内战是当今世界历时最长、产生原因最复杂、冲突解决最棘手的内战之一。导致苏丹内战爆发和持续的因素主要有宗教问题、种族问题、认同问题、殖民遗留问题、国家权力分配问题、环境资源问题及外部影响问题等 ,但宗教问题是最关键的因素。北方伊斯兰教和南方基督教的冲突对内战的爆发、进程及未来走向都有根本性的影响。因此可以说 ,苏丹内战就是宗教冲突激化和延续的结果与表现。两种宗教固有的不同政治观是导致南北冲突的本质原因 ,也决定了冲突的解决必然是困难重重。尽管苏丹内战可望结束 ,但无宗教间的真正平等与友好就不会有苏丹的真正和平与统一。     

美国因素和1962年《日内瓦协议》以后老挝内战的重启

日内瓦协议签署以后,美国并没有停止对老挝事务的干涉。美国政府在继续援助老挝反共力量的同时,进一步采取了促进老挝中立派与右派势力合作的战略。美国对日内瓦协议的公然违背造成了老挝政治力量的再次分化与重组。老挝再次陷人内战的同时,美国也对老挝事务进行了直接的军事干涉,使老挝最终成为越南战争的真正战场。     

How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

Years of strategic missteps in oceans policy, naval strategy and a force structure in decline set the stage for U.S. defeat at sea in 2015. After decades of double-digit budget increases, the People's Liberation Army (Navy) was operating some of the most impressive systems in the world, including a medium-range ballistic missile that could hit a moving aircraft carrier and a super-quiet diesel electric submarine that was stealthier than U.S. nuclear submarines. Coupling this new asymmetric naval force to visionary maritime strategy and oceans policy, China ensured that all elements of national power promoted its goal of dominating the East China Sea. The United States, in contrast, had a declining naval force structured around 10 aircraft carriers spread thinly throughout the globe. With a maritime strategy focused on lower-order partnerships, and a national oceans policy that devalued strategic interests in freedom of navigation, the stage was set for defeat at sea. This article recounts how China destroyed the USS George Washington in the East China Sea in 2015. The political fallout from the disaster ended 75 years of U.S. dominance in the Pacific Ocean and cemented China's position as the Asian hegemon.     

以史为鉴居安思危--评《帝国霸权与拉丁美洲--战后美国对拉美的干涉》一书

近 2 0年来 ,专门撰写与出版揭露美国帝国主义和霸权主义的书 ,似乎已是一种“久违”了的学术现象。现在摆在我案头的这本题为《帝国霸权与拉丁美洲——战后美国对拉美的干涉》(以下简称《干涉》,徐世澄主编 ,世界知识出版社 ,2 0 0 2 )的书 ,正是这样一本“久违”了的书 ,所以     

"外围国家"上升为"中心国家"的历史经验考察——以美国和巴西为例

独立后至20世纪30年代巴西经济实行初级产品出口型发展模式,虽然它一定程度上促进了巴西经济的发展,但并没有使巴西摆脱"外围国家"(不发达国家或发展中国家)的地位;至70年代巴西根据世界经济发展形势采取了进口替代工业化发展模式,同样也没有缩小与"中心国家"(西方工业发达国家)的经济差距,仍然处于第三世界。而同时期的美国在独立后开始实行保护主义进口替代,有效地保护了国内工业,美国也由此在20世纪初期迅速成为"中心国家";至20世纪70年代全面自由对外贸易进一步巩固了美国"中心国家"的地位。     

析美欧在反恐中的人权分歧

长期以来,"在有关民主和人权的价值观上,美国与欧洲的共同点超过世界上其他任何地区。"正因为如此,冷战年代,它们运用"人权外交",联手对付前苏联;冷战结束后,欧盟支持了美国反对伊拉克入侵科威特的海湾战争,参与了打着"人权高于主权"旗号的科索沃战争,参加了反对恐怖主义的阿富汗战争。即使在伊拉克战争后,当美国和欧洲围绕中东问题、联合国作用及国际秩序等问题发生尖锐分歧时,共同的价值观基础仍能为双方弥合关系发挥一定积极作用。然而,美欧在人权领域也存在矛盾与分歧。自"9·11"事件引发的国际反恐斗争以来,双方在国际人权问题上的分歧愈益显露,这使有的美国学     

Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace After Civil War

This article examines international interventions in the aftermath of civil wars to see whether peace lasts longer when peacekeepers are present than when they are absent. Because peacekeeping is not applied to cases at random, I first address the question of where international personnel tend to be deployed. I then attempt to control for factors that might affect both the likelihood of peacekeepers being sent and the ease or difficulty of maintaining peace so as to avoid spurious findings. I find, in a nutshell, that peacekeeping after civil wars does indeed make an important contribution to the stability of peace.     

Humanitarian Intervention and Communal Civil Wars:

How do policymakers in democratic nations mobilize support for hard-line strategies? Existing answers to this question emphasize the exaggeration of external threats. Yet this overlooks an important dilemma: because democratic citizens expect their leaders to explore peaceful solutions or less aggressive alternatives when foreign dangers are ambiguous, the same conditions that make threat inflation necessary also make it difficult to employ successfully. To mobilize support for hard-line measures when the public wants its leaders to demonstrate restraint, policymakers may therefore attempt to shift blame onto an adversary by using “counterfeit diplomacy.” Specifically, democratic leaders may adopt more cooperative or less coercive options than they believe are necessary, but which they anticipate will fail. This approach can be a risky one, however, because an opponent might accept a nation's demands, accede to its conditions, or offer counterproposals in the hope of diffusing support for more confrontational measures.     

From Commitment to Independence: Greek Foreign Policy and the Western Alliance

This paper examines the troubled relationship between Greece and the western alliance following the collapse of the military regime in Athens and the invasion of Cyprus. U.S. Congressional reports and the Greek parliamentary proceeding reveal the geopolitical significance of Greece to the western alliance and the frustration of the government in Athens regarding its foreign policy objectives. The Greeks might have questioned the benefits of being part of an alliance; however, it is evident that Greece's diplomatic isolation compelled her leadership to strengthen her links with the western camp. Hence, the present study assesses the attitude of the Greek government toward the Atlantic alliance and the US over the issues of NATO membership and the military installations in Greece and challenges the notion of “independence,” or else the need for detachment from the western alliance.