伊拉克战争:呈现战争新趋势的一个样本

自2003年3月23日美国发动伊拉克战争迄今已历四年。四年来,美国软硬实力、内政外交因为这场战争而发生了什么样的变化?国际战略形势又随之出现了哪些变迁?对中国而言,加速发展的战略机遇期是否还将持续?伊拉克战争本身又带来哪些启示?围绕这些问题,《现代国际关系》编辑部举办了“伊拉克战争四周年国际战略形势”专题研讨会,邀请一些知名国际问题专家进行了深入探讨。现将与会专家学者的主要观点辑录刊发,以期对读者更好地理解和把握这些问题有所裨益。     

伊拉克战争遗患无穷

自2003年3月23日美国发动伊拉克战争迄今已历四年。四年来,美国软硬实力、内政外交因为这场战争而发生了什么样的变化?国际战略形势又随之出现了哪些变迁?对中国而言,加速发展的战略机遇期是否还将持续?伊拉克战争本身又带来哪些启示?围绕这些问题,《现代国际关系》编辑部举办了“伊拉克战争四周年国际战略形势”专题研讨会,邀请一些知名国际问题专家进行了深入探讨。现将与会专家学者的主要观点辑录刊发,以期对读者更好地理解和把握这些问题有所裨益。     

伊拉克战争牵动国际格局调整

2007年5月1日是美国宣布伊拉克战争结束四周年.四年多来天下并未太平,国际战略格局呈现以下新特点:     

The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War

Saddam's Iraq has become a cliché in the study of military effectiveness—the quintessentially coup-proofed, personalist dictatorship, unable to generate fighting power commensurate with its resources. But evidence from the later years of the Iran-Iraq War actually suggests that the Iraqi military could be quite effective on the battlefield. What explains this puzzling instance of effectiveness, which existing theories predict should not have occurred? Recently declassified documents and new histories of the war show that the Iraqi improvements stemmed from changes in Saddam's perceptions of the threat environment, which resulted in significant shifts in his policies with respect to promotions, training, command arrangements, and information management in the military. Threat perceptions and related changes in these practices also help explain Iraq's return to ineffectiveness after the war, as evident in 1991 and 2003. These findings, conceived as a theory development exercise, suggest that arguments linking regime type and coup-ridden civil-military relations to military performance need to take into account the threat perceptions that drive autocratic leaders’ policies toward their militaries. After discussing how to define and measure battlefield effectiveness, the article reviews Saddam's changes and their effects; addresses alternative explanations for the improvement in Iraqi effectiveness; and explains how further research based on this initial exercise could generate a better understanding of the observed variation in states’ battlefield effectiveness, including variation within and across autocratic regimes.     

伊拉克战争与世界大势

伊拉克战争对国际形势和国际关系全局及其走向产生重大而深远影响。美对外用武频率上升对世界和平与发展造成更大挑战。国际关系单边与多边之争空前深化。称霸与反霸成为当前世界主要矛盾。国家主权在国际法体系中的核心地位凸显。联合国在世界政治舞台上的地位与作用虽受冲击,仍不可替代。地区合作势头趋于增强。国际地缘政治正在酝酿深刻变化。     

伊拉克战争与俄美国际战略冲突

对于伊拉克战争 ,俄罗斯外交反应经历了强硬—缓和—再强硬的过程。强硬是其反应的基调 ,当前俄美之间的斗争已转向伊拉克战后安排问题。巨大的经济损失、对外经济战略的失败和俄美之间国际战略的严重冲突 ,决定了俄罗斯外交的基本立场 ,对形势判断有误也是导致俄罗斯激烈反应的不容忽视的因素。就全局而言 ,今后俄美之间还必须寻求妥协与合作 ,但由于国际战略利益的冲突 ,两国之间的共同点在减少 ,分歧在增加 ,两国间的斗争将长期继续下去。在短期内 ,俄罗斯的国际战略环境将趋于恶化 ,俄罗斯外交正进入较困难的时期     

Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004–2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.     

纽马克翻译理论与汉语文化负载词的翻译

汉语文化负载词的翻译历来是翻译界的难题,在翻译方法和策略的选择上一直缺少科学、规范的参考。本文以我国文学作品及现实生活中的翻译实例为例,探讨将彼得·纽马克的交际翻译及语义翻译理论应用于汉语文化负载词翻译的可行性,认为适当地运用交际翻译及语义翻译策略能帮助译者更好地胜任汉语文化负载词的翻译工作。     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

The Crisis of Federalism and Electoral Strategies in Iraq

After uprooting Saddam Hussein from power, establishing democracy in Iraq has been declared among the most important objectives of the U.S.-led Coalition. However, the Coalition has encountered complex ethnic and religious relations and resentment of foreign intervention in Iraq. These reactions reflect decades, even centuries, of divisive and antagonistic policies whose impacts continue to complicate and threaten coexistence and civil peace. The immediate challenge of achieving stability and peace in Iraq, therefore, rests in the ability to foster a genuinely indigenous institutional political structure that can accommodate the different ethnic and sectarian aspirations. This article highlights the major potential shortcomings of the federal model established by the "Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for The Transitional Period." It also examines the shortcomings of the List Proportional Representation system as presented by the United Nations for Iraq's transition, and alternatively proposes national electoral reform strategies, with the implementation of an Alternative Vote system with Minority Provision in the election to the National Assembly, as a means to strengthen Iraq's national unity.     

The Politics of U.S.–UN Reengagement: Achieving Gains in a Hostile Environment

From 1999 to 2001, the United States actively tried to improve its image and role in the United Nations (UN). This was a difficult process due to the many areas of disagreement between the United States and other UN members. However, throughout this period, the focus of reengagement was centered on resolving the large and longstanding U.S. arrears to the UN. While the United States was not able to achieve everything it desired, this period of reengagement resulted in new scales of assessment for the UN's regular and peacekeeping budgets that were much more favorable to the United States. This article draws on practitioner interviews to analyze the U.S. campaign to resolve its arrears, most specifically focusing on six factors that explain why the United States was able to achieve so much in the face of such an inhospitable environment at the UN. In doing so, the article identifies several areas where scholars and practitioners are highlighting similar dynamics, and it uncovers important policy implications for future U.S. efforts to push other UN members in directions that they may not be eager to go. These policy implications are especially relevant for current U.S.–UN relations given the U.S. failure to secure Security Council authorization for the use of force against Iraq in March 2003 .     

伊拉克民族构建问题的根源及其影响

作为文明古国的伊拉克 ,在今天仍然存在着较为严重的民族构建问题 ,主要根源是 :领土和统一国家形成的晚近及各地区间联系的薄弱 ,现代伊拉克的版图最终确立至今不到 6 0年 ;库尔德人与阿拉伯人之间尖锐的民族矛盾影响到国家的稳定 ;逊尼派和什叶派的教派矛盾 ;游牧民的频繁袭扰与部族社会的长期存在 ,在定居农村、甚至城市中不同程度地保留了部落关系及其价值观念。它们对伊拉克现代民族国家和社会经济的发展产生了深远的负面影响 ,其具体后果有 :经济规模的小型化、血缘关系的长期存在及阶级关系的不发达、小党派林立并深受传统因素的影响、激烈而血腥的政治斗争及统治者的独裁等。     

Re-negotiating the Just War: The Invasion of Iraq and Punitive War

This article examines the arguments pertaining to punitive war presented by President George W Bush, Prime Minister Tony Blair and various just war theorists, in order to examine how they relate, first, to the case made for war against Iraq in 2003 and, second, to the classical just war tradition. In highlighting the confluence between contemporary justificatory rhetoric and the classical just war tradition, this article sketches an account of the mode by which the tradition has developed over time. By drawing attention to the homologies linking just war arguments, classical and contemporary, it constructs a basis for a critical perspective: understanding the idea of punishment as it has figured historically in just war tradition past may enable us to gain a degree of critical purchase on how it figures in just war tradition present.     

从战争到战争:论一战对二战的影响

本文以第一次世界大战与第二次世界大战的战争本质中的共同点为基础展开讨论。这两场战争都是大规模的工业化战争,均历经过度的、失控的暴力、死亡和破坏。它们不仅见证了包括新技术和强大武器在内的军事方法和战争手段的发展,也见证了全面的扩张,或者说是战争向人类生活各个领域的越界(Entgrenzung)。在两次世界大战中,扩张或者侵略的概念已经延伸并超越总体战的概念范畴。如果忽略德国记忆的存在和对大战争的解读,只谈第二次战争是绝对不全面的,20世纪30年代的德国社会目睹了——一代人的——第一次世界大战的异化,即一战逐渐失去了在记忆中的重要位置。随后的世界大战用大规模屠杀、破碎的档案和巨大的破坏强化了该进程。更多的受害者,特别是平民百姓的死难,对六百万欧洲犹太人的谋杀使这场规模宏大的暴力的越界达到了巅峰,这一切都使第一次世界大战似乎成了第二次世界大战的灾难的序曲。     

Hitler's Shadow: Historical Analogies and the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait

Leaders often turn to history for guidance. Margaret Thatcher and George Bush were no exception when they responded to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Bush and Thatcher used analogies to the 1930s, the Vietnam War and the Falklands War to frame the crisis, which significantly influenced their policies. They argued that Saddam Hussein was another Adolf Hitler and were determined not to repeat the mistakes of the Western response to the Axis in the 1930s or of the Vietnam War. There would be no 1930s-style appeasement of Iraq, and no slow escalation as had occurred in Vietnam. The prompt use of overwhelming force in the Gulf would succeed, Bush and Thatcher believed, just as the use of force had succeeded in the Falklands crisis, and just as such a policy, they believed, would have deterred the Axis in the early 1930s.     

The Clash of Historical Analogies and Their Influence on Decision-Making: The Case of Iraqi Reconstruction Under George W. Bush

Contrary to the conventional wisdom in the literature on United States foreign policy, there was no consensus within the George W. Bush Administration on the parallel between the reconstruction of Iraq and that of post-Second World War Germany and Japan. Systematic analysis of available sources shows that the decision-makers drew a large number of different historical analogies—73 in all. This analysis takes a fresh look at the use of analogies regarding Iraqi reconstruction. We divide the period of April 2003 to June 2008 into four phases, in each of which a different analogy predominates—Afghanistan, Germany and Japan, the Cold War, and Vietnam. Analysis of the analogies embraced by five distinct groups within the Administration’s decision-making team—nationalist hawks, neoconservatives, administrators of Iraq, realist internationalists and the president—clarifies the affinities and tensions amongst them.     

War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization

Democratization reduces the risk of war, but uneven transitions toward democracy can increase the probability of war. Using country-level data on democratization and international war from the period 1875–1996, we develop a general additive statistical model reassessing this claim in light of temporal and spatial dependence. We also develop a new geopolitical database of contiguities and demonstrate new statistical techniques for probing the extent of spatial clustering and its impact on the relationship between democratization and war. Our findings reaffirm that democratization generally does reduce the risk of war, but that large swings back and forth between democracy and autocracy can increase war proneness. We show that the historical context of peace diminishes the risk of war, while a regional context plagued by conflict greatly magnifies it.