Perilous presidentialism or precarious power-sharing? Hybrid regime dynamics in Myanmar

ABSTRACT

Although Myanmar's transition from military rule has been thoroughly studied, research into the evolving presidential system is lacking. This article maps Myanmar's unique hybrid form of presidentialism and characterises executive-legislative relations between 2012 and 2017. It not only examines institutions themselves but also explores how actors within them have acted and shifted strategically. It is argued that elite-behaviour determines how institutions work. Myanmar's 2008 constitution imposed by the military established a hybrid presidential system with a formally powerful president. The first phase under President Thein Sein saw competitive yet cooperative executive-legislative relations between President Thein Sein and the ambitious House Speaker Shwe Mann, both members of the former military regime. However, this power-sharing arrangement of former members of the military regime became increasingly fragile with the rise of Aung San Suu Kyi and her attempt to change the 2008 constitution. After the election victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the passage of the state counsellor law, a de facto semi-presidential system was established – Burmese style. Since then, the frontline has been between the civilian and military parts of the administration.     

Will REDD+ Safeguards Mitigate Corruption? Qualitative Evidence from Southeast Asia

High levels of faith and finance are being invested in REDD+ as a promising global climate change mitigation policy. Since its inception in 2007, corruption has been viewed as a potential impediment to the achievement of REDD+ goals, partly motivating ‘safeguards’ rolled out as part of national REDD+ readiness activities. We compare corruption mitigation measures adopted as part of REDD+ safeguards, drawing on qualitative case evidence from three Southeast Asian countries that have recently piloted the scheme: Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. We find that while REDD+ safeguards adopt a conventional principal-agent approach to tackling corruption in the schemes, our case evidence confirms our theoretical expectation that REDD+ corruption risks are perceived to arise not only from principal-agent type problems: they are also linked to embedded pro-corruption social norms. This implies that REDD+ safeguards are likely to be at best partially effective against corruption, and at worst will not mitigate corruption at all.     

Democratization and women’s representation in presidential cabinets: evidence from East and Southeast Asia

This article examines patterns of women’s cabinet representation across all presidential democracies in East and Southeast Asia since democratization. It demonstrates how the choice of female ministers differs across career backgrounds in presidential systems and further examines why young presidential systems in Asia are conducive to women’s access to ministerial power through professional career tracks. We argue that despite women’s successful performance in national legislative elections, women have been restricted to access the power resources necessary to target other political goals, such as cabinet positions, whereas democratic transition has provided broader avenues for women to emerge as professionals outside party politics. By analyzing original data on female ministers in East and Southeast Asia, the study finds that the share of women among professional ministers has increased over time, but women’s share among political ministers has not changed significantly. Additionally, the different qualifications of female politicians and professionals also make them eligible for appointment to different types of policy areas in terms of prestige and gender. Our analysis suggests that women’s cabinet representation has improved overall since democratic transition in Asia, but this improvement disguises contrasting outcomes in women’s cabinet status according to their career backgrounds.     

Perilous semi-presidentialism? On the democratic performance of Timor-Leste government system

ABSTRACT

Timor-Leste chose semi-presidentialism as its government system to steer the country towards a democratic state. This government system became popular in the course of the ‘Third Wave’ of democratization, but has no other example in Southeast Asia. The Timorese Constituent Assembly was guided not by an appraisal of the virtues and pitfalls of competing systems, but by historical and political factors that led it to craft an institutional solution in line with significant features of Timorese society. Yet the specific form of semi-presidentialism adopted in Timor-Leste (‘president-parliamentarism’) is regarded in the literature as prone to instability. However, in spite of episodes of instability, the conclusion emerging from three consecutive presidencies is one of positive steps in democracy-building and consolidation. This is mainly due to the emergence of ‘independent’ presidents who have sought power-sharing arrangements and promoted inclusive governance.     

Does public participation matter? Inclusive growth in East Asia

Inclusiveness in economic development has lately emerged as a critical factor for development. This paper adopts an analytical concept of inclusive growth to evaluate East Asia’s economic success. It contests the Western conceptualization of the critical role of public participation in development, and argues that it has played a limited role in terms of inclusive growth in East Asia. Several factors have influenced the outcome of research in this area including the choice of methodology adopted, the challenge of defining and measuring inclusive growth, and the unclear mode and impact of public participation in the process.     

National Museums in Southeast Europe: (En)countering Balkanism?

The collapse of sclerotic and dysfunctional one-party regimes in central and eastern Europe, associated with the end of the USSR, and in parts of the Balkans, with the death of President Tito of Yugoslavia in 1980, was followed by violence and war, which brought the region to the world’s attention. These events, and inevitably the historical causes, were and still are interpreted to an international audience, largely through a global media, over which Balkan countries have limited influence. Todorova (Slavic Review 53(2):453–452, 1994, 2009, 1997) identified a trend or convention in these interpretations which was largely negative, which she called ‘Balkanism’, and which was at least partly constructed ‘from the outside’ (1994, p. 445). She argued that our knowledge of the Balkans is mediated through a distorting lens: we see it as a dark ‘other’. By contrast, national museums funded by national governments would seem to offer a channel through which the states in the region might be able to tell their own stories, in their own way. This survey of national museums attempts to map these stories against specific aspects of Balkanism. Are they complicit in its construction, or do they run counter to or align with it? It is argued that the key elements of these displays counter some aspects of Balkanism but align with it or reinforce it in other ways.     

The environment – Energy security nexus: critical analysis of an energy ‘love triangle’ in Southeast Asia

The mantra of energy security is regularly employed as an excuse for governing elites in the less affluent South to pursue large-scale energy projects that are often inappropriate and unnecessary for local development needs. This situation is exemplified in Thailand, Burma and Laos. Here the dominant classes have created an energy ‘love triangle’, whereby Thailand exports the many problems associated with cross-border energy projects to its more authoritarian neighbours while importing the resultant energy. This article employs critical security literature and the concept of earth rights to investigate these relationships and elucidate resultant linkages between environmental and energy security. It finds that, far from safeguarding local communities from depravation, these projects often exacerbate existing social tensions and conflict, hastening environmental degradation and intensifying various manifestations of insecurity.     

Losers’ Consent or Non-Voter Consent? Satisfaction with Democracy in East Asia

In recent times non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in Bangladesh have witnessed massive growth in size, budget and scale of operations. They enjoy growing support from international donors and operate outside the direct control of the government. Their handling of the massive funds aside, increasing involvement of NGOs in economic, social and at times political spheres has given rise to widespread concerns about their accountability including their relationships with the government, donors and the community. This article examines and analyses various dimensions of NGO accountability in Bangladesh. Drawing on evidence from the Grameen Bank and the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC)—two of Bangladesh's largest and the most successful NGOs—the paper argues that NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been more rhetorical than real. It shows that while formal accountability measures are in place, they suffer from a range of inadequacies and shortcomings. Consequently NGO accountability has remained weak and ineffective in relation to major agents such as the government, donors and the clients. The article further shows that some of the recent developments, such as the proliferation of NGO operations, government organisation (GO)–NGO collaboration and the growing involvement of NGOs in commercial activities, have imposed further limitations on their accountability to key stakeholders.     

Sanitation and Religion in South Asia: What Accounts for Differences across Countries?

Exposure to open defecation has serious consequences for child mortality, health, and human capital development. South Asia has the highest rates of open defecation worldwide, and although the incidence declines as household income rises, differences across South Asian countries are not explained by differences in per capita income. The rate of open defecation in sub-national regions of Bangladesh, India and Nepal is highly correlated with the fraction of the population that identifies as Hindu, in part because certain rituals of purity and pollution discourage having latrines in close proximity to one’s home. Almost all open defecation occurs in rural areas, and this paper estimates how much the rate could be reduced if rural households in regions that have a higher fraction of Hindus, where open defecation is still common, altered their behaviour to reflect that of non-Hindu households in regions that are predominantly non-Hindu, where the rate of open defecation is much lower. Using nonparametric reweighting methods, this paper projects that rural open defecation in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal could be reduced to rates of between 6 and 8 per cent, compared to the prevailing level of 65 per cent.     

Does Drug Trafficking Impact Terrorism? Afghan Opioids and Terrorist Violence in Central Asia

ABSTRACT

The relationship between drug trafficking and terrorism remains a contentious issue. While some assert that drug trafficking is a strong predictor of terrorism, others contest this observation. This study focuses on the impact of the Afghan opioid trade on terrorist violence in Central Asia, a region of drug transit states. We employ Geographic Information Systems–enabled visualizations of the drug trade and terrorism as well as statistical tests to study the drug–terror relationship at the subnational level. Our findings lend support to the argument that the drug trade facilitates terrorism, but we also find that the drug–terror relationship is multifaceted, complex, and intimately linked to the state.     

Who’s Socialising Whom? Regional Organisations and Contested Norms in Central Asia

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) represent competing sets of international norms in Central Asia. The contestation between these sets of norms has not led to a complete polarisation between members of the two organisations, however. Instead, the OSCE has used a range of discursive tactics to reduce political contestation, downplaying some contested issues and seeking shared discourses on security threats. This article explores these tactics and suggests that these discursive shifts may eventually threaten the normative identity of the OSCE and lead to the acceptance of a more hybrid set of security-related norms in the region.     

Why (most) Indonesian businesses fear the ASEAN Economic Community: struggling with Southeast Asia’s regional corporatism

By the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had ushered in a common market, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). However, the groups most affected by it – small businesses – were bypassed in the decision-making process. They are the victims of a selectively inclusive state corporatism which member countries have transferred from their domestic political system to the regional level. In this article I argue that the decision to create the AEC was promoted by ASEAN governments together with foreign economic and local corporate interests. This coalition was able to frame the AEC in a way that small businesses perceived it as a win-win scheme. Empirically the article focuses on Indonesia.     

Comparing Employed and Unemployed Workers' Job Motivations for Sector Choice in East Asia: Does Employment Status Matter?

This article seeks to extend the understanding of the varying nature of job motivations on choosing public sector employment by comparing the two different groups of people—the employed and the unemployed—in the context of East Asia. Utilizing a subset of data from the International Social Survey Program on Work Orientation module in 2005, this article examines how eight job motivational aspects correlate with the choice between public and private sector employment. Major findings indicate that there are significant differences in job motivations between people of different employment status. Moreover, public service motivation was a not a significant factor of sector choice for the unemployed workers, compared to the employed workers who cited job usefulness to society as a reason to join the public sector employment. Practical implications are presented at the end of the article.