Good Inflation, Bad Inflation: The Housing Boom, Economic Growth and the Disaggregation of Inflationary Preferences in the UK and Ireland

This article presents a comparative analysis of the determinants, sustenance and broader macroeconomic consequences of the ultimately unsustainable housing boom in Ireland and the UK in recent years. It examines, in particular, the role played by ostensibly depoliticised monetary policy in both contexts in the development of a house price bubble that has served to fuel consumer-led growth. It assesses the viability, sustainability and reproducibility of the private debt-financed consumer boom that house price inflation has generated. In the process it draws attention to the increasingly differentiated character of both government inflationary preferences and counter-inflationary performance—with the shift to official measures of inflation that exclude mortgage interest repayments and, in the UK at least, to the covert re-politicisation of monetary policy. It concludes by suggesting that governments may well not have time-inconsistent inflationary preferences so much as sectorally specific inflationary preferences. This might be summarised in terms of the aphorism: 'retail price inflation bad, house price inflation good'.     

The Syrian Refugee Crisis and the International Community

This article analyzes the problematics of the international community's response to the Syrian refugee crisis: patterns of displacement, including the lack of attention to basic needs, the limited economic opportunities in host countries, the conditions facing Syrian refugee children, the risk involved in migration, and the challenge of adapting to host societies. The article then elucidates the series of failures of the international community to address the causes of this displacement, despite efforts by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and international institutions to alleviate suffering. It traces the humanitarian mismanagement to political divisions in the international community, including the failure of Arab states, the Iranian intervention, and the role of the United Nations, Russia and the United States in aggravating the displacement. The article provides policy recommendations for international actors in order to honor their commitments to hosting refugees and addresses the political requirements for a lasting solution.     

Back to the Suitcase? Emigration during the Great Recession in Spain

The complex and multidimensional economic crisis experienced by Spain since 2008 significantly altered migration patterns in this country. Large scale unemployment contributed to slow down migrant inflows and accelerated out-migration flows in Spain. The media coverage of these processes created a distorted image of the patterns of migration affecting Spain during the crisis. Although the incipient economic recovery has not had a major impact in terms of modifying the migration dynamics triggered by the crisis, the media attention to this issue has substantially decreased without questioning its previous approach to the phenomenon. This article presents extensive data from a wide range of sources covering the period 2008–2016 to extract detailed information about the reality of crisis-era migration flows in Spain, and discusses the extent to which the media treatment of the issue has contributed to a partial and misleading view of the causes and consequences of the new Spanish emigration.     

东盟面临的危机与挑战

本文探讨了东南亚国家联盟作为一个组织机构在这次亚洲金融危机中所起的作用。从各个国家来看 ,成员国们采取各种措施加强对银行的管理 ,加大金融交易的透明度 ,鼓励竞争 ;从双边关系来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们对受影响最严重的国家 ,尤其是对印度尼西亚进行了援助 ;从国际方面来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们共同呼吁发达国家继续开放市场 ,在重新谈判债务问题时更灵活些 ,在实施改革计划时要注意保护贫穷阶层的人士。本文追踪了在一系列会议上东南亚联盟的初衷 ,但是最后得出结论认为现有的经济合作项目有待进一步扩大合作领域 ,进一步加强责任感。     

Colonial Crisis and Spanish Diplomacy in the Caribbean During the Sexenio Revolucionario, 1868–1874

During the nineteenth century, the Caribbean was the stage for a complex geopolitical confrontation involving the United States, Spain, Great Britain, and France. The precarious balance of powers in that region was upset by the outbreak of the Cuban crisis in 1868 and by the dawn of the period of severe instability in Spain following the overthrow of Isabel II and the onset of the reformist period characterised by the Sexenio Revolucionario. The Cuban crisis strongly constrained the foreign policy of the new regime in Spain and turned the Caribbean Basin into a zone of vital interest for Spanish diplomacy.     

新自由主义与世界经济危机

2008-2010年世界经济金融危机,并不单纯是由美国次贷市场的崩溃所引发的,其根源深植于新自由主义的资本主义。目前现存的国际制度体系与其说有助于全球秩序,不如说催生了全球混乱。应该从根本上重建日益相互依存的世界经济所赖以运行的制度架构。未来世界的经济,即相互关联的全球经济,需要的是能够进行包括政治在内的全球协调的制度。     

The Commonwealth of Nations and the EU after the ‘Global’ Crisis: Rethinking Post-2015 ‘Global’ Development?

Abstract

The continuing ‘global’ crisis has accelerated divergences between regions, especially between the ‘rising’ global South, the European Union (EU) of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) and Cyprus, which belongs to both the Commonwealth and the EU. This article studies the emerging ‘vertical’ divergences between the EU and the global South, especially around the so-called Economic Partnership Agreements, and the parallel ‘horizontal’ divergences among Anglophone, Francophone (the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie) and Lusophone (the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa) Commonwealths, with their inheritance of emulation and competition. It focuses on the possibilities of enhanced human/citizen security to propose an analysis that challenges established perspectives and points towards prospects for Commonwealth ‘schools’ of international relations/development.     

The rise of a hesitant EU host? Examining the Greek migrant integration policy and its transformation during the crisis

Greece lately, as a result of the crisis, has been transformed from a migrant receiving (host) country to a simultaneously migrant sending and receiving one. At the same time, processes of migrant de-integration from the economy and society have been manifesting too. This paper attempts to draw light on Greek migrant integration policy, which through the years has been characterized by a contradiction between policy narratives and concrete actions on the ground. More specifically, this paper brings to the fore a policy change that occurred during the period 2012–2015 and possibly continues up to now. According to this policy shift, special emphasis was put on the acquisition of the European long-term resident status from the part of already settled migrants as a passport to their intra-European mobility. Politically speaking, such developments were heralded as a win–win situation for both migrants, but also, Greece as a host country. Nevertheless, this rise of a hesitant EU host, who turned its integration policy into a managing migration endeavour, might be indicative of broader tendencies and trends within an expanded EU migratory landscape that includes both migration, but lately most importantly, asylum too.     

The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

Russia’s economic policy in 2015–2016: the imperative of structural reform

In the aftermath of the global economic crisis, we have seen uneven development in the leading advanced and emerging economies, new models of economic growth that vary from country to country, uncertain prospects for globalization and challenges of “regional globalization,” looming currency re-configurations, as well as shifting energy price dynamics and their influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. This paper discusses current challenges for social and economic policy in the context of the history of the past 30 years. With reference to Russia, it focuses on a new growth model, structural transformation (including import-substitution issues), economic dynamics, fiscal and monetary concerns, and social issues. It concludes by addressing the priorities of economic policy.