War and identity: the case of the Donbas in Ukraine

Abstract

The study of identities struggles to capture the moments and dynamics of identity change. A crisis moment provides a rare insight into such processes. This paper traces the political identities of the inhabitants of a region at war – the Donbas – on the basis of original survey data that cover the four parts of the population that once made up this region: the population of the Kyiv-controlled Donbas, the population of the self-declared “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic,” the internally displaced, and those who fled to the Russian Federation. The survey data map the parallel processes of a self-reported polarization of identities and the preservation or strengthening of civic identities. Language categories matter for current self-identification, but they are not cast in narrow ethnolinguistic terms, and feeling “more Ukrainian” and Ukrainian citizenship include mono- and bilingual conceptions of native language (i.e. Ukrainian and Russian).     

Capturing ethnicity: the case of Ukraine

Abstract

Building on past survey-based studies of ethnic identity, we employ the case of Ukraine to demonstrate the importance of taking seriously the multidimensionality of ethnicity, even in a country that is regarded as deeply divided. Drawing on relational theory, we identify four dimensions of ethnicity that are each important in distinctive ways in Ukraine: individual language preference, language embeddedness, ethnolinguistic identity, and nationality. Using original survey data collected in May 2014, we show that the choice of one over the other can be highly consequential for the conclusions one draws about ethnicity’s role in shaping attitudes (e.g. to NATO membership), actions (e.g. participation in the Euromaidan protests), and the anticipation of outgroups’ behavior (e.g. expectations of a Russian invasion). Moreover, we call attention to the importance of including the right control variables for precisely interpreting any posited effects of ethnicity, making specific recommendations for future survey research on ethnic identity in Ukraine.     

Destined for deadlock? Russia,Ukraine, and the unfulfilled Minsk agreements

ABSTRACT

Bringing peace, security, and stability to the war-torn region of Donbas has proven to be a challenging – some would say near-impossible – task. The “Minsk II” agreement, signed in February 2015, was supposed to put an end to the armed hostilities, resolve the underlying political issues, and gradually restore Ukrainian government control of the country’s eastern border. None of this has happened. Despite continuous Western support and pressure, progress in the implementation of the peace plan signed in Minsk has been slow, also after the much-anticipated Paris summit of the “Normandy Four” (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France) in December 2019. This article discusses the underlying causes of the current stalemate, emphasizing factors such as the inherently complex nature of the conflict, the process through which “Minsk II” came into being, the vague and ambiguous language of this and other agreements, practical challenges related to the timing and sequencing of agreed-upon measures, and Russia’s persistent non-acknowledgement of its role in the conflict.     

Nothing personal: explaining the rise and decline of political machines in Ukraine

This article is the first to explore and compare the dynamics of party-building between the three main political forces that competed for power during the last decade in Ukraine – Viktor Yushchenko's Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine), Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland), and Viktor Yanukovych's Partiya Rehioniv (Party of Regions). We show that their political trajectories can be explained by differences in their organizational structure and distribution of resources within the party's leadership. When a party depends on resources linked primarily to one individual, it will develop a personalized decision-making structure advantaging its leader, and the party's fortunes will be tied to the popularity (or lack of same) of the leader. By contrast, when a party relies equally on resources from several groups, a more consociational style of decision-making is likely to emerge. Using Ukraine as a case study, the article shows that personality-led parties will be more vulnerable to defections and less capable of absorbing potential competitors. On the other hand, coalition-led parties are better capable of surviving defeats, maintaining internal cohesion, and merging with like-minded parties.     

The practice and implications of legislative proxy voting in Ukraine

Governing parties often face the challenge of coordinating the behavior of legislators to pass bills and achieve their policy goals. Solutions to this collective action problem vary, but generally involve a combination of inducements and punishments to encourage legislators to toe the party line. “Ghost voting,” a form of proxy voting in which legislators record roll-call votes in place of their absent co-partisans has been noted over time in many representative institutions. This article addresses the process of proxy voting in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, empirically demonstrating that proxy voting has been widespread and essential to the success of crucial legislation. At the same time, proxy voting creates impediments to measures of legislative unity and undermines accountability.     

Half measures and incomplete reforms: the breeding ground for a hybrid civil Society in Ukraine

Abstract

In the space of 24 years, Ukraine has experienced three ‘revolutions’: the revolution for independence, the ‘Orange Revolution’ and the ‘Dignity Revolution’. On each occasion the event has been lauded as a triumph of democracy over authoritarianism and as evidence that Ukraine will soon be able to assume its rightful place as a free, democratic state in Europe. On two out of three occasions the reverse has occurred; while the people have taken to the streets to protest against flagrant corruption and abuse of power, the oligarchs have responded with only minor changes to the political system. The reins of political and economic power have remained firmly in their hands, and Ukraine’s prospects for political and economic development have deteriorated. The Dignity Revolution of 2014 is seen as different from preceding revolutions because civil society appeared to be much more active and it has succeeded, in part, in maintaining pressure on government for reform. It is important to understand, however, that despite periodic and dramatic demonstrations of outrage over the corrupt and authoritarian practices of the political elites, civil society has generally been classed as apathetic, weak and ineffectual. Thus, the current challenge for Ukrainian civil society is to overcome its own limitations so that it can better hold government to account.     

Multi-level voting and party competition in vertically simultaneous elections: the case of Ukraine

Vertically simultaneous elections to state-wide and regional legislatures provide us with a naturally occurring experiment in which to examine regionalism and multi-level voting. We examine the 2006 vertically and horizontally simultaneous state-wide and regional elections in Ukraine to determine how the internal dynamics of regionalism within a state account for the dissimilarity of voting behavior across electoral levels. Drawing on the party competition literature, we demonstrate that variations in both supply (parties) and demand (voters) produce considerable dissimilarity between regional and state results, with lower levels of consolidation and greater fractionalization at the regional level. We show that political cleavages operate differently across levels, that regional distinctiveness rather than regional authority better predicts first order-ness in regional elections, and that voters display varying tolerance for polarization at the regional and state level.     

Eurasian integration: elite perspectives before and after the Ukraine crisis

A European scholar explores the changing dynamics of integration processes within the Eurasian Customs/Economic Union in the new context created by the Ukraine crisis. The article examines positions adopted by member states Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus before and after onset of the crisis in Ukraine. Several rationales for justifying the Union are derived from international relations theory and documented in the rhetoric of actors from these three countries. The evolution of conflicting rhetorical postures mirrors a slowdown of the Eurasian integration process and growth in the bargaining leverage of Belarus and Kazakhstan vis-à-vis Moscow.     

The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia,Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas

The crisis in Ukraine since late 2013 has seen four successive internationally mediated agreements that have been at best partially implemented. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and 42 key informant interviews sides, we explain this outcome with reference to the logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia is currently unable to achieve a friendly and stable regime in Kyiv and thus hedges against the consolidation of an unfriendly pro-Western and stable regime by maintaining its control over parts of eastern Ukraine and solidifying the dependence of local regimes there on Russian support. This gives Russia the opportunity to maintain the current status quo or settle for re-integration terms through which Russia can sustain long-term influence over Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy. We conclude by reflecting on the consequences of competitive influence-seeking in the post-Soviet space: the likely persistence of low-intensity conflict in Ukraine; the further consolidation of territorial divisions in other post-Soviet conflicts; and the need for policy-makers in Russia and the West to prioritize the management of the consequent instability.     

Proxy agents,auxiliary forces,and sovereign defection: assessing the outcomes of using non-state actors in civil conflicts

Abstract

This article interrogates the role of non-state armed actors in the Ukrainian civil conflict. The aim of this article is twofold. First, it seeks to identify the differences between the patterns of military intervention in Crimea (direct, covert intervention), and those in the South-East (mixed direct and indirect – proxy – intervention). It does so by assessing the extent of Russian troop involvement and that of external sponsorship to non-state actors. Second, it puts forward a tentative theoretical framework that allows distinguishing between the different outcomes the two patterns of intervention generate. Here, the focus is on the role of non-state actors in the two interventionist scenarios. The core argument is that the use of non-state actors is aimed at sovereign defection. The article introduces the concept of sovereign defection and defines it as a break-away from an existing state. To capture the differences between the outcomes of the interventions in Crimea and South-East, sovereign defection is classified into two categories: inward and outward. Outward sovereign defection is equated to the territorial seizure of the Crimean Peninsula by Russian Special Forces, aided by existing criminal gangs acting in an auxiliary capacity. Inward sovereign defection refers to the external sponsorship of the secessionist rebels in South-East Ukraine and their use as proxy forces with the purpose of creating a political buffer-zone in the shape of a frozen conflict. To demonstrate these claims, the article analyses the configuration of the dynamics of violence in both regions. It effectively argues that, in pursuing sovereign defection, the auxiliary and proxy forces operate under two competing dynamics of violence, delegative and non-delegative, with distinct implications to the course and future of the conflict.     

Considering the Orange legacy: patterns of political participation in the Euromaidan Revolution

The proximity of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2004) andEuromaidan Revolution (2014) provides an opportunity to considerwhy some individuals remain active across protest cycles whileothers defect. Many social movement scholars explain differentialparticipation in terms of micro-structural, biographical, or cognitivefactors. Others rely on rational choice theories of collective actionbased on coordination. Testing competing explanations arecomplicated because the variables included in structural andagency-based models are often the same, although the underlyingcausal mechanisms are different. In this article, I argue that thekey to understanding the role of agency and structure in protestparticipation is to relax strong assumptions about the unified natureof society and consider the multiple paths to participation. Thisapproach suggests that both structural and agency-based causalmechanisms can influence political engagement depending onindividual experiences, identities, and perceptions of events.     

Ukrainian volunteer fighters in the eastern front: ideas,political-social norms and emotions as mobilization mechanisms

Abstract

Following the outbreak of the insurgency in eastern Ukraine, thousands of volunteers joined pro-Kiev battalions. Although they have fiercely fought against pro-Kremlin forces, very little is known about them. The article will investigate why individuals have engaged in such a risky endeavour for no obvious material reward. It will claim that ideas, political-social norms and emotions have functioned as mobilization mechanisms that can explain individual decisions. Based on interviews, the article will argue that the mobilization of Ukrainian volunteer fighters has a strong cognitive-normative-emotional dimension that cannot be ignored and should be further explored.     

Demonizing the enemy: the influence of Russian state-sponsored media on American audiences

ABSTRACT

There is growing anxiety about the influence of international propaganda on public opinion. Under what conditions can countries shift foreign public opinion against an adversary? Does making people aware that news is coming from a foreign source mitigate its influence? I examine these questions in the context of Russian propaganda in the United States. I subject subgroups of Americans to an article from Russia Today (RT), a Russian international television network, criticizing the Ukrainian government. I vary whether audiences are aware of the message source, and/or the intentions, of the Russian-funded network. I show that exposure to information about Ukrainian human rights violations lowers Americans’ evaluations of Ukraine irrespective of source awareness – indicating that making people more aware of foreign propaganda does not attenuate its influence. The findings have important implications for understanding the micro-level effects of international propaganda and the effectiveness of counter-propaganda strategies.     

Security relations in the Black Sea region: Russia and the West after the Ukrainian crisis

The Ukrainian conflict – as all post-Soviet conflicts – has three interrelated dimensions – global, regional and local – with deep implications for international security including the Black Sea region. The strategic interdependence between Russiaand West during the last decade became not only anaemic but antagonistic. The regional implications of that can be compared to the boomerang effect: problems at the strategic level affect the regional level and return to the originators. Generally speaking, Commonwealth of Independent States conflicts can be viewed as the product of the Soviet legacy and the patchy collapse of the USSR as well as the ill-conceived policies and mistakes of the involved parties, Russia and external actors – USA, NATO and EU.     

侨民利益、国家利益与国籍法--关于建构国家利益认知的思考和中国的双重国籍问题分析

国家利益的模糊性为国家利益的建构主义观点提供了哲学基础,中国国内在双重国籍问题上关于国家利益的认知变化则为我们提供了认识建构国家利益的一个很好案例.在国家利益的建构中,知识分子以自己的见解和论证起着重要作用.     

Local democracy in Ukrainian cities: civic participation and responsiveness of local authorities

This article examines local democracy in Ukrainian cities from the perspective of the local population, with a focus on citizen participation and city authorities' responsiveness to the concerns of local inhabitants. It draws on a survey of 2000 urban residents in 20 Ukrainian cities with a diversity of population size, administrative status, and geographic location. Correspondence analysis is used to show how different groups of the population are distributed along the two dimensions of responsiveness of local authorities and citizen participation. A typology of four ideal-types of city residents is elaborated: “alienated,” “protesters,” “compliant,” and “interactive.” The data reveal remarkably large differences among cities: from four to six of the cities are associated with each of the four typology categories based on the clustering patterns along the two dimensions. The main policy implication of the study is that general measures for local government reform should be combined with targeted measures directed at the various types of challenges experienced in different Ukrainian cities.     

国籍·民族主义·"社会主义":战后缅甸华侨国籍个案研究

吴努时期,缅甸华侨中存在国籍(选择)问题的主要是第一代移民、一代和少数二代以上的侨生.这一时期这部分华侨入籍并不积极,入籍比例较低.这主要是缅甸民族主义政策对华侨的影响,吴努政府对"社会主义"的理解和实践,中缅关系的亲善,中国对缅甸华侨的影响等多种因素综合作用的结果.     

Regionalism,personalism, ethnicity,and violence: parties and voter preference in the 2010 parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan

On the basis of interviews, census data, and precinct-level electoral results from the October 2010 parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan, this paper examines the influences on the party vote in Kyrgyzstan. Instead of traditional socioeconomic variables, this study finds that regionalism (North vs. South), ethnicity, personalism, and violence offered the most compelling explanations of party preference in Central Asia's most competitive election. The paper also examines the contextual factors that constructed and filtered voter demand, from Kyrgyzstan's political and economic conjuncture in 2010 to its unusual party system and electoral rules.     

Crimea and the quest for energy and military hegemony in the Black Sea region: governance gap in a contested geostrategic zone

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its destabilization of Eastern Ukraine have radically altered the European security order, with the Black Sea region becoming an acutely contested geostrategic zone. Russia’s strategic interests in the Black Sea region, especially in terms of energy and military presence, collide with those of Ukraine, Turkey, the European Union and the United States, among others, and expose the governance gap left by the existing conventions and institutions in dealing with the region. It is argued that Russia’s move to annex Crimea was a strategic decision made irrespective of the destructive effect on the post-Cold War order. Furthermore, until a new normal has been accepted by the main players, there is no hope of revising the existing conventions and institutions pertaining to the basin.     

Endurance of the Soviet imperial tongue: the Russian language in contemporary Georgia

This article will examine the role of the Russian language on the periphery of the post-Soviet space by using multiple sources of data, including original matched-guise experiments, to examine the language situation in contemporary Georgia. This is one of the former Soviet republics in which the use of the titular language was most intensively institutionalized and that most ardently resisted Russification, and one that today for various reasons is most eager to escape the legacy of its Soviet past and to embed itself in the global community. In Georgia the cultural and political influence of the former imperial centre has been greatly reduced, and Russian has been challenged in functional roles by the new international lingua franca of English. The direction that the Russian language takes in a place like Georgia may be a useful bellwether for such transformations elsewhere in the post-Soviet periphery.