Individual and contextual characteristics of the German extreme right-wing vote in the 1990s. A test of complementary theories

Abstract In this article we set out to improve our knowledge on voting for extreme right–wing parties, i.e. the Republikaner, by taking into account social, political and contextual characteristics. We test four theories that provide explanations as to why certain social categories are more likely to vote for the Republikaner. The hypotheses are tested with multilevel analyses, with data from a national sample (N = 4688). Multinomial analyses provide additional information on how theoretically derived political attitudes effect voting behaviour.     

Electoral participation in the Netherlands: Individual and contextual influences

Abstract Research into electoral participation has produced two traditions, one focusing mainly on individual level explanations while the second concentrates primarily on aggregate level explanations. By bringing these two research approaches together, we are not only able to explain individual electoral participation more thoroughly, but we also gain additional insight into the influence of aggregate level characteristics on individual behavior. We combine eight National Election Studies held in the Netherlands between 1971 and 1994 enabling us to study variation on the individual and the contextual (aggregate) level, including interactions between these two levels. Findings show that the addition of contextual characteristics form a significant improvement to an individual level model predicting electoral participation. Findings also confirm our expectation that the influence of individual characteristics such as education or political interest is dependent upon contextual characteristics describing for instance the salience of the election.     

The dynamics of the extreme right support: A growth curve model of the populist vote in Flanders-Belgium in 1987–2007

In the last 20 years, extreme right parties have gained a substantial share of electorate in a number of Western European countries. Despite of substantial research interest, the reasons for the popularity of the Extreme Right parties presented in the studies are often contradictory. Our study has a two-fold contribution to the topic. First, we show that studies based on aggregate data analysis may yield biased results that are not confirmed when contextual and individual-level data are fitted together using the growth curve analysis. Second, we argue that the analysis of extreme-right vote based on one election suggests a constant effect of contextual variables on the outcome variable. We demonstrate that the effects of local context vary over time, and hence should be modeled using the multilevel (growth curve) approach.     

20世纪八九十年代台湾少数民族政治运动初探

20世纪80年代的台湾,受各种政治因素的影响,国民党当局的统治受到严重冲击,被迫进行"本土化"、"民主化"的政治革新,台湾少数民族政治运动由此兴起.在党外反对势力支持下,台湾少数民族政治运动围绕"正名"、"还我土地"、"自治"三大诉求,向国民党当局抗争维权,这一运动到20世纪90年代末逐渐走向消沉,其原因值得深思.台湾少数民族政治运动虽然历时短暂,却在台湾政治运动史上占有重要地位.     

A swing vote from the ethnic backstage: The role of German American isolationist tradition for Trump's 2016 victory

We question the growing consensus in the literature that European Americans behave as a homogenous pan-ethnic coalition of voters. Seemingly below the radar of scholarship on voting groups in American politics, we identify a group of white voters that behaves differently from others: German Americans, the largest ethnic group, regionally concentrated in the ‘Swinging Midwest’. Using county level voting returns, ancestry group information from the American Community Survey (ACS), current survey data and historical census data going back as early as 1910, we provide evidence for a partisan and a non-partisan pathway that motivated German Americans to vote for Trump in 2016: a historically grown association with the Republican Party and an acquired taste for isolationist attitudes that mobilizes non-partisan German Americans to support isolationist candidates. Our findings indicate that European American experiences of migration and integration still echo into the political arena of today.     

Parties,candidates and issues in the German federal election of 1980: An application of normal vote analysis

An application of the concept of a normal vote to the West German political system is attempted. Normal vote parameters for West Germany are calculated and the 1980 Federal election is analysed by means of this newly established baseline. Furthermore, a modified version of the well-known Boyd formula for the computation of short-term effects will be proposed since under some circumstances Boyd's S may be seriously inflated. Finally, the formula will be extended to multivariate relationships. Applying the resulting partial short-term coefficient shows quite clearly that the outcome of the 1980 German Federal election was more strongly influenced by candidate evaluations than by issue orientations.     

Individual and contextual variation in EU issue voting: The role of political information

Increasing politicization in EU member states about European issues can be expected to strengthen the impact of attitudes towards Europe on vote choice in European Parliament (EP) elections. At the same time this impact is likely to vary between voters and contexts as a function of political information. This study explores the role of political information in explaining individual and contextual heterogeneity in the degree of EU issue voting. Using a two-step hierarchical estimation procedure to explore both individual and contextual variation, we show that while EU issue voting in the 2009 EP elections is only slightly more pronounced among the politically sophisticated, it is clearly more extensive in contexts that provide higher levels of political information on European matters.     

Anti-capitalism in the name of ethno-nationalism: ideological shifts on the German extreme right

ABSTRACT

Sommer examines the (re-)emergence of anti-capitalist and anti-globalization themes within the ideology and discourses of the German extreme right. He argues that it would be short-sighted to interpret this development simply as another opportunistic attempt by the extreme right to incorporate Zeitgeist issues into its political agenda in order to appeal to a broader spectrum of supporters. An analysis of the latest campaigns of the Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD)—the most successful extreme-right party in recent years—as well as the activities of groups that exist within the larger German extreme-right milieu, the so-called freie Kameradschaften, reveals that the taking up of social questions as well as anti-capitalist and anti-globalization themes marks a deeper shift within the political agenda of the extreme right in Germany. However, the analysis shows that racist and antisemitic issues do not disappear with this shift, but are linked with and incorporated into anti-capitalist and anti-globalization discourses.     

The Cadillac,the mother-in-law,and the ballot: Individual and contextual roots of ambivalence in Swiss direct democracy

Citizens may experience irreconcilable and conflictive values or feelings about a political issue. They may, for instance, both believe in a woman's right to autonomy over her body (pro choice) and that human life begins before birth (pro life). This conflictive situation – referred to as ambivalence in relevant literature – has detrimental effects on political choices. For instance, ambivalence may enhance instability in candidates' evaluations, delay the formation of vote intentions, and finally weaken predictions on vote choices.This being, literature has less looked at what may induce ambivalence, and especially on how informational context may affect it. Our paper aims to compensate for this lack, by assessing under which individual and contextual conditions ambivalence has more chances to be felt by citizens. Through a series of hierarchical estimations based on post-electoral data on Swiss direct democracy and original data retracing content of political campaigns, we will demonstrate that individual determinants (political sophistication, exposure to political campaigns, and heuristics) as well as political campaigning (intensity and negativism) strongly determine the existence of ambivalence.     

Crime Story: The role of crime and immigration in the anti-immigration vote

Some scholars have found that mass immigration fuels the success of anti-immigration parties, whereas others have found that it does not. In this paper, we propose a reason for these contradictory results. We advance a set of hypotheses that revolves around a commonly ignored factor, crime. To test these hypotheses, we examine a setting where an anti-immigration party, the LPF, participated in simultaneous elections in all Dutch municipalities, which form a single constituency. According to our results, the impact of immigration rates on the individual vote for the LPF only manifests itself among those voters who are very ‘tough on crime’. In addition, we demonstrate that high local crime rates make an anti-immigration vote more likely, but only among voters who are very ‘tough on immigration’. This suggests that immigration and crime rates do not make all citizens more likely to cast an anti-immigration vote, but only those who perceive a link between the two issues. Thus, if one wishes to reduce anti-immigration leaders’ electoral support, countering their criminalization of immigrants may be a more fruitful strategy than trying to stop immigration – if at all possible.     

Medicaid in the 1990s: Trends, Innovations, and the Future of the "PAC-Man" of State Budgets

Rapidly escalating health-care inflation and congressionallymandated expansions have led to large increases in spendingfor Medicaid, the federal-state program of health care for thepoor. These increases came at a time when state budgets werealready under recession-induced stresses. In addition, 1991brought new pressures for Medicaid spending from the courtsand closer federal scrutiny and control over revenues used forthe program's state "match." Yet the Medicaid picture is farfrom bleak. Diversity, innovation, and an emerging stale policyrole also characterize the program in ways that epitomize thestrengths and weaknesses of the American intergovernmental system.     

Occupational safety and health in Poland in the 1990s: A regulatory system adapting to societal transformation

The societal transformation underway in Poland createda fundamental challenge to the occupational health and safety system, as the ideological and administrative principles on which it was founded vanished along with the communist-dominated regime. This paper examines the regulatory reform in Poland during the 1990s: its structural elements, implementation record and future prospects. Drawing on five case studies of privatized firms, a mailed questionnaire, and policy and institutional analysis, we find that Poland had considerable success in developing an effective regulatory system for managing occupational health hazards in privatized sector while also achieving considerable socioeconomic progress. The fundamental legitimacy of the regulators and regulatory process, the availability of information about firms and regulatory intents, and the capacity for case-specific decision making, are among the key explanatory factors. The case-specific implementation in Poland is consistent with models advocated by several authors in relation to other industrialized European economies (termed variously as negotiated compliance, tit-for-tat, cooperation-deterrence), despite a uniquely Polish context related to the continuing legacy of the communist era. The study also shows how in Poland a good fit between regulatory institutions and policies on the one hand, and their social context on the other hand, contributes to the effectiveness of the regulatory system.