布什政府对台政策的特点及其原因

本文探讨了布什政府对台政策的主要内容,深入分析了布什政府对台政策的特点及其原因,并就美国对台政策的趋势进行了展望,认为美国在台湾问题上的作用将呈基本稳定的态势.     

Causes and Consequences of Political Clientelism: Mexico's PRD in Comparative Perspective

PRD politicians and officials widely use clientelism to structure their relationships with citizens. This is due not only to the entrenchment of clientelism in Mexican politics or to high rates of poverty and inequality, but also to the limited institutionalization of democratic rules inside the party. The last stems largely from the party's electoral strategy in its formative years, and has resulted in uncontrolled factional battles that play out through clientelism. The Brazilian PT faced external and internal conditions quite similar to those of the PRD, but its early focus on organization building and policy change allowed it to avoid clientelism to a greater degree. This analysis problematizes the trend of using minimalist definitions that assume clientelism to be nondemocratic because these approaches result in conceptual stretching and decreased explanatory power.     

变与不变:美国对欧政策的历史考察

由于历史和现实的原因,对欧政策长期占据美国对外政策的中心位置。随着国际体系的演变及美国实力与国际地位的变化,美国的对欧政策经历了一个渐进的、不断突破传统的变化过程。相应地,美国对欧洲事务介入的程度越来越深、范围越来越广、方式和手段越来越多样化。虽然美国的对欧政策经历了不断的调整,但是其两个核心成分和目标却得以延续和保留:即防止欧洲出现挑战美国利益的霸权,以及将欧洲纳入美国主导的全球秩序。当前美国的对欧政策仍在调整,对欧盟既合作借重又制约防范将是主要趋向。     

一种新的阐释美国外交政策的方法--读《美国外交政策及其如何影响了世界》

人们在对美国外交政策进行分析、阐释和预测时所面临的问题之一是 ,如何以一种适当的方法来解读错综复杂的当代美国外交政策。《美国外交政策及其如何影响了世界》① 一书体现了为应对这一问题而进行的努力。该书作者、美国对外关系委员会的美国外交政策高级研究员沃尔特·拉塞尔·米德向人们提出具有启迪意义的阐释方式。一米德在书中提出的一个核心论点就是 ,正确理解后冷战时期的美国外交政策 ,关键在于承认并理解美国的外交政策传统。米德认为 ,自美国独立以来 ,对外政策在美国的历史进程中发挥了重要作用 ,相对于其他大国 ,美国对外政…     

冷战后印度对华政策调整的特点和原因

冷战末期至今的印度对华政策的三次重大调整是在现实主义思想的指导下进行的.印度国内政治发展、美国和巴基斯坦等外部因素、对中国崛起的看法和反应将是影响印度未来对华政策的决定性因素,其基本特征仍将具有两面性和反复性,但在积极和理性的方面将有所加强.     

Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuela's 2000 Elections

This study aims to explain the victory of Hugo Chávez and his party in the 2000 Venezuelan elections, to analyze the factors that made this victory possible, and to examine the consequences for future developments in the Venezuelan political system. The decay of traditional party loyalties without the emergence of new parties deeply rooted in society (dealignment without realignment); underdevelopment; and an institutional setting dominated by a president elected by a plurality electoral system have opened the door to personality-centered politics and weak parties, which are the main features of the current political situation. Compared to the 1993 and 1998 elections, the 2000 elections once again confirm an increase in personality politics and the decay of parties as instruments for articulating interests, representation, and governance. As a consequence, this article argues, instability is likely to remain a feature of Venezuela's party system for some time.     

菲律宾非暴力群众运动的根源和后果

2006年的菲律宾政治危机的根源,在于其民主的狭窄基础。对于菲律宾而言,如何超越“精英民主”,已成为非常现实的学术和政治问题。过去一直被认为是推动了菲律宾民主制度恢复和发展的人民力量运动,而今同样需要重新思考其性质和作用。从实际结果看,人民力量运动并非人民的意志和政治影响力的体现,而是精英之间的派系斗争,参加运动的群众只是精英们掌握的工具,因此,人民力量运动并不能够使菲律宾走出当前所面临的社会政治困境。     

Soviet Electric Power After Chernobyl': Economic Consequences and Options

A review of the role of nuclear power in Soviet electricity production and of economic and design factors that may have contributed to the accident at the Chernobyl' Atomic Power Station sets the stage for analysis of its economic and other impacts on the USSR and Eastern Europe. The paper outlines methods for estimating direct costs stemming from lost generating capacity, agricultural output, and plant infrastructure; clean-up and relocation; and medical care. Longer-term costs in the form of environmental and public health problems, reexamination of energy development strategies, and effects on international trade will be greater but more difficult to determine. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

Japan's Choices in a Changed Security Environment

China's rise and clear ambition to change Asia poses both tactical and strategic questions, long neglected in Japan. Tactically, territorial challenges can be countered effectively by use of Anti-Access Area Denial [A2/AD] tactics, as Japan is now doing. The strategic issues: how to deal with a hostile nuclear super-power neighbor, counter nuclear blackmail, and so forth, are far more difficult. This author believes that US “extended deterrence” no longer exists. Washington in fact would never use nuclear weapons to defend Japan, whatever promises have been made. The only answer, and one that decreases rather than increases the possibility of conflict, is for Japan to acquire within a decade a minimal nuclear deterrent, too small for war-making but adequate to prevent attack, such as those maintained by Britain and France, who know America best. Without such a deterrent Japan will be defenseless against inevitable Chinese nuclear threats and blackmail.     

The Aboriginal Franchise and Its Consequences

This article traces the expansion (and contraction) of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander franchise for Commonwealth, state and territory elections, and to a lesser extent local government elections; it outlines the arguments made for (and against) Aboriginal enfranchisement; and it examines alternative accounts of what drove the expansion (and contraction) of the vote. It pulls together data on Aboriginal enrolment, political awareness and party support, particularly in the Northern Territory. And it examines divergent views about the consequences of Aborigines having the vote: claims that the franchise is an empty formality; claims that it has allowed Aborigines to be manipulated; and claims that it has generated benefits — symbolic, expressive and instrumental.