哈萨克斯坦对欧亚经济联盟的参与及限度——结构制约与精英偏好的影响

欧亚经济联盟是俄罗斯整合后苏联空间的最新尝试,而成员国对组织的认同和参与攸关其成败。因此,在分析欧亚经济联盟的发展轨迹及其发展趋势时,中小成员国对该组织的参与同样值得关注。哈萨克斯坦是欧亚经济联盟中除俄罗斯之外最具实力的国家,其对联盟的参与至关重要。哈萨克斯坦对欧亚经济联盟的认知和参与,从最初的积极拥抱变为谨慎支持。哈的立场变化同时受到结构制约与精英偏好的影响。俄罗斯在地区一体化机制中的主导地位、哈国内族群结构、哈地理位置等结构性因素,决定了哈萨克斯坦需要参与欧亚经济联盟。然而,乌克兰危机在一定程度上削弱了俄在后苏联空间内的结构性权力,这增加了哈萨克斯坦的行动自由。与此同时,俄罗斯在乌克兰危机后为维系自身的国际和地区地位,加强了对后苏联空间的整合力度。但俄采取的一些做法被哈精英解读为对其国家主权和自主发展道路的威胁,这削弱了哈精英对欧亚经济联盟的认同度和参与度。     

俄罗斯在中亚面临多方挑战

苏联解体后,俄罗斯与中亚五国在政治、经济、军事等领域保持着密切的关系。近年来,它们之间的合作又有了新进展,标志之一是哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦与俄罗斯、白俄罗斯于1996年3月签订了《关于加深经济和人文领域一体化条约》。又如,中亚与俄罗斯军事上的合作稳步发展,由俄、哈、乌、吉、塔组成的维和部队,对于稳定塔吉克斯坦政局和保卫塔阿(富汗)边界发挥了重要作用。     

俄罗斯与欧盟关系:目标实现困难重重?

俄罗斯与欧盟合作尽管态势良好,但成效甚微,欧盟扩张后更是陷入深刻危机.本文认为,除几乎在方方面面均为不对等的合作者因素外,俄欧双方在目标和期望上的不对称性亦是重要诱因.而能源以及后苏联空间则是俄欧博弈的主要内容.俄欧双方都在致力于构建新的合作模式,但由于分歧过多,不会一帆风顺.     

哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦立国之道的异同

哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦立国后都面临安全和生存问题。两国经济结构单一,对外依附性很大。苏联解体后原来的经济联系遭到极大破坏,财政补贴中断,国内生产总值直线下降,经济陷入困境。哈萨克境内俄族人几乎与哈族人相等,北面与俄罗斯紧挨着,如何维护本民族利益又兼顾俄族人要求,从而减少     

俄罗斯对朝鲜半岛关系的现状、问题与前景

在冷战后期,苏联在东亚地区实行战略收缩,东北亚局势随之得到了缓和,苏联解体后,俄罗斯继承了前苏联的国际地位和国际上的权利义务,苏朝、苏韩关系转变为俄朝、俄韩关系。俄罗斯加快发展以经济为先导的“亚太外交”,这不仅有利于恢复俄罗斯经济,而且为俄罗斯在未来时期恢复前苏联在朝鲜半岛地区的影响力打下了基础。目前,俄罗斯国内政治动荡,经济衰退,民族纷争,这大大限制了其在半岛事务中发挥作用的能力,俄罗斯对朝鲜半岛的外交政策显得有心无力。     

"9·11"以后的俄美欧关系

"9·11"事件出乎意料地促成了俄美欧关系的靠近,但它们都抱有不同的目的,俄罗斯经济发展需要美欧的支持,所以,"9·11"事件正好成为俄与美欧改善关系的契机,欧洲希望借此机会,建立一个"完整"的欧洲,美国则从反恐需要出发,认为没有俄罗斯的支持,反恐战争是难以取胜的,所以,基于各自战略的考虑,俄美欧走到了一起.     

独联体内"四国统一经济空间"相关问题探析

2003年9月19日,独联体中经济规模最大的俄罗斯、乌克兰、哈萨克斯坦和白俄罗斯正式签署了建立"四国统一经济空间"的协议,这无疑为独联体经济一体化进程掀开了新的篇章.长期以来一直游离于独联体核心圈之外的乌克兰加入其中是"四国统一经济空间"最显著的特点.在可预见的未来,"四国统一经济空间"可为独联体经济一体化的发展提供成功的机遇,但实现过程并非坦途.为了使"四国统一经济空间"顺利向前发展,就目前而言,四国应在入世问题上协调政策,统一立场;俄罗斯应尽快使所有以俄为中心的三个集团(俄白联盟国家、欧亚经济共同体和四国统一经济空间)的一体化方案协调一致并千方百计地加强在成员国,特别是在乌克兰的经济存在.     

平衡中美与以印对冲：俄对华战略新动向

俄罗斯对华战略新动向,即在中美博弈加剧、中俄实力对比根本逆转之后俄对华外交的新态势。该战略动向表明俄希望以外交弥补实力不足,巩固和增强其在中俄关系中的主动性,拓展外交空间,与美国维护霸权地位的进攻型战略不同。其政策表现为在中美之间实施平衡外交,在保持中俄关系发展的同时尽力构建与美良性关系,既不与中结盟,也不联美制中;为弥补在中俄关系中的实力不足,以俄印关系对冲中俄关系,谋求在中俄印关系中的主导地位以增强战略能力,使其在中美俄关系中更加主动。本文首先分析界定平衡与对冲概念,建立分析框架;其次分析能反映出俄对华战略新动向的精英言论、体现俄对华战略新动向之外交行为及战略新动向产生的根源;最后在对俄罗斯平衡与对冲战略的政策效应评估的基础上,提出中国的因应之道。     

转型以来俄罗斯与外高加索国家关系的演变

苏联解体后,俄罗斯与外高加索三国关系的演变同俄对独联体政策的转变密切相关。随着对独联体政策的调整,俄罗斯加强了对外高加索事务的介入,以解决“热点”问题为契机,双边关系得到一定发展。但在美国和北约等外部强大势力对该地区的渗透之下,格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆在对俄罗斯失望之余,双边关系很快冷淡下来,格俄之间甚至兵戎相见。     

俄罗斯与越南关系演变的轨迹

俄罗斯与越南的关系经历了曲折的发展过程。本文试图以历史为线索分阶段地分析苏越、俄越之间关系的演变,以期对它们之间的关系有一个较全面、清晰的了解。 一、苏联与越南的关系 1.斯大林时期:隔岸观火 1945年八月革命宣告了越南民主共和国的诞生。然而,仅仅在20天之后即1945年9     

The Poverty of Democracy: Neoliberal Reforms and Political Participation of the Poor in Mexico

Twenty years after governments across Latin America began implementing neoliberal reforms in earnest, concern is growing about their impact on the quality of democracy in the region. This article examines this issue in the case of Mexico by exploring how patterns of political participation, especially among the rural and urban poor, have changed since the implementation of free market reforms. It asks whether the institutional innovations associated with free market reforms make it easier or more difficult for the poor to participate in Mexico's political process. The answer is not encouraging. Despite democratic openings, the new linkages between the state and citizens established as a result of the transition to a free market development model stifle the voice of the poor not through the threat of force or coercion, but by creating obstacles and disincentives for political mobilization that affect the poor more severely than other groups.     

新华侨华人的职业结构及其影响因素——美国与加拿大的比较

本文用人口社会学理论分析了美国和加拿大新华侨华人的职业结构及影响因素.文章认为,20世纪70年代后进入美国和加拿大的华人应被视为新华侨华人.目前,海外华侨华人大约3500万,美国华人有330万,加拿大华裔有120万.美国和加拿大新增加的华人人口中,新华侨华人约占2/3.加拿大的新华侨华人主要集中在大城市,其中70%以上集中在多伦多、温哥华.19世纪至20世纪60年代美国华人移民基本上集中在西海岸地区,从1970年开始,华人集中而居的状况开始发生变化,区域分散化趋势日渐明显.美国和加拿大新华侨华人的职业结构总体上发生了巨大的变化,即由体力型向智力型转变,新华侨华人的经济地位也随之提高了很多.但是,新华侨华人中贫富差别严重.影响新华侨华人职业结构的因素有:美、加、中三国移民政策的调整放宽了对移民出入境的限制;华人人口结构发生的变化影响了其职业结构;知识结构的变化和劳动力市场也对新华侨华人职业结构产生了不可忽视的影响.     

The Deep Roots of Libya’s Security Fragmentation

Abstract

Six years after the 2011 revolution that toppled the Gaddafi regime, the political transition in Libya is at a standstill. The fragmented security landscape fuels chronic local conflicts, lawlessness, and insecurity, and paralyzes the political transition with destabilizing consequences on its neighbors. What explains the rapid, profound, and lasting security fragmentation that affected post-Gaddafi Libya? Notwithstanding the manifest failures of the international intervention during and after the 2011 conflict, this article argues that the security fragmentation in post-Gaddafi Libya is deeply rooted in domestic economic, cultural, and political factors. In particular, the Libyan economy offers almost no employment opportunities, and the country lacks a unitary government and functioning state institutions that it needs to redistribute its oil wealth. Under these circumstances, Libyans attempt to cope with economic hardship, insecurity, and lawlessness by turning towards their family, tribe, neighborhood, or ethnic group, thereby fueling the fragmentation of security. Libya’s current security fragmentation and instability can be seen as part of the messy historical process of state formation. During this phase, political and security agreements are brokered and institutionalized through localized processes of rebel governance whose realm of possible arrangements are determined by contextual economic, political and cultural constraints.     

Securing the Homelands: Transatlantic Co-operation after Bush

Since 9/11, internal security co-operation has grown into a major feature of transatlantic relations. This article seeks to appraise both the achievements of the Bush administration in this field and the prospects for President Obama's period of office. Homeland security has been a new and difficult area of co-operation to foster, yet both sides of the Atlantic have come to recognise their shared interests in working together. The article cautions those European policy-makers who are hoping for a major change in homeland security co-operation under the new president. It is likely that the policies of the new administration will be characterised more by continuity than by change.     

The paradox of petrodollar development: Chad’s military diplomacy in regional and global security

This paper examines the Chadian government’s overwhelming preoccupation with state security, rather than individual security, as evidenced by its huge expenditure on arms rather than on poverty-alleviating development projects following the unprecedented influx of petrodollars in the years since production began in 2003. This overemphasis on state security demonstrates a mismatch between the availability of natural resource wealth and ongoing low levels of socioeconomic development in Chad. The country has instead used its enormous oil wealth to boost its standing in the turbulent Central African and Sahelian regions where terrorism is rife. The country’s international diplomacy, which consists of deploying its well-equipped military in international peacekeeping missions and in the fight against terrorism, is a strategy of achieving international recognition while simultaneously diverting the international community’s attention from the country’s democracy deficit and poor human rights record. Internally, authoritarianism and political instability are accompanied by conflict, poverty and underdevelopment, which in turn perpetuate the challenges facing the country.     

2021年版《俄罗斯国家安全战略》及中俄安全合作

2021年版《俄罗斯国家安全战略》公布了当前俄罗斯安全战略的主要目标、国家安全面临的主要威胁、国家安全的未来规划。《2021年安全战略》与之前的2009年版、2015年版相比有较大改变,体现了俄罗斯政府对国内外新形势与国家安全风险和挑战的准确把握。该安全战略呈现出涵盖面广、“综合性”强、“战略内倾”突出、“去西方化”明显等特征。自俄罗斯独立后,中俄两国就开始了安全合作,双方在政治、军事与国防、经济和能源、文化信息与科技以及地区反恐和全球战略稳定等领域的安全合作不断深化,合作呈现出安全理念和安全战略理论上共通性强、在国家和地区及全球安全领域实践中配合默契、双方安全合作方式与途径差异明显、地区安全战略和全球安全理念存在国家利益差别等特征。今后双方将在理论创新、实践深化、区域与全球层面加强配合、推动全球安全秩序更合理及推动构建安全命运共同体方面继续深化合作。     

The Final Frontiers of Healthcare Universalisation in Costa Rica and Panama

This article explains how Costa Rica and Panama, two Central American countries with nearly universal public healthcare programmes, have come to enjoy such broad coverage. It then describes the distinct paths each is taking towards reaching the populations still left out of healthcare coverage. Costa Rica is seeking to bring all residents under the umbrella of its ILO‐style social security plan. Panama is targeting the rural poor with a package of defined interventions aimed at maternal and child mortality. The article frames these cases within the literature on the varieties of universalism.     

AFRICOM: a threat or an opportunity for African security?

The establishment of an African military command by the United States reflects the growing focus of the United States on Africa in the US National Security Strategy, which appears to be continuing under new US President Barack Obama. This article deals with several questions. What is the stated US National Security Strategy pertaining to Africa? What national interests does the United States have in Africa? What is the United States officially saying about its objectives in Africa and what has it actually been doing to date? And what are other opinion makers saying about US military involvement in Africa? Finally, it looks at the question of US perceptions of possible rivals in Africa and at potential scenarios for conflict before making a series of conclusions about the threats and opportunities posed by AFRICOM for Africa, and recommendations for a response to AFRICOM on the part of policymakers in South Africa.     

Transition to Upper Secondary School: an Estonian Experience

This is a study of the transition to upper secondary education, an area largely ignored by international educational research. In particular, the study focuses on the transition from compulsory basic education to an academic general upper secondary education in Estonia. This study involves a national survey of school principals as well as case studies. The mixed methods analyses show that a number of barriers can be identified that may have an adverse impact on students’ adjustment to a new learning environment, potentially affecting their educational outcomes and future life-chances. The study places the findings in the context of broader societal processes that have taken place during the last decade in the Baltic countries in general, including Estonia.     

After the euphoria: The United States and South Africa in the 1990s

The United States welcomed the recent transition in South Africa and has worked closely with the new government since April 1994. Traditional American interest in South Africa was motivated first by opposition to communism and then by opposition to apartheid. However, the demise of those systems as well as uncertainties regarding South Africa's transition make it doubtful that the US will give the country as much attention in the next several years. In the more distant future shared interests are likely to bring the United States and South Africa closer.