经济全球化与韩国民主化：以发展战略转型为视角

自20世纪60年代实施出口导向型发展战略后,韩国被纳入国际经济体系之中,并与之同步演化。随着新自由主义意识形态主导的全球化的进一步发展,出口贸易的严重依赖使得韩国政治经济发展受到全球市场的制约与影响。本文运用相互依赖理论来分析经济全球化的发展与韩国发展战略转型之间的相关性以及韩国经济结构的变迁及其与政治转型相互型塑的发展结果。     

转型深化进程中的国家治理模式重构

多重制度转型改变了传统的全能主义国家治理模式,政府-市场-公民社会三元并存与互补的现代国家治理模式成为转型国家制度改革的目标.国家治理模式重构的进程异常复杂曲折,转型国家普遍存在程度不同的治理危机.尽管不同国家的制度转型与国家治理模式重构路径存在差异,但协调政府、市场与社会间的关系依然是其转型深化阶段国家治理模式构建的关键.对转型国家重构国家治理模式的进程进行研究,有助于中国在完善社会主义市场经济体制阶段选择更为有效的国家治理模式构建战略.     

族群冲突对缅甸民主转型的影响

缅甸是一个族群状况复杂的国家,族群问题在缅甸政治中占据重要地位。独立运动时期,缅甸各民族的团结被放在了首要地位,并通过《彬龙协议》相互约定独立后采取民族自治的联邦制。但是,独立后的缅甸政府却在联邦制和民族自治上有名无实,相反强调"一个种族(缅甸族)、一种语言(缅甸语)、一个宗教(佛教)"的强制民族融合政策,这直接造成了国内大规模的族群冲突。2003年8月缅甸政府推进民主转型以来,族群冲突依然成为阻碍民主转型的重要障碍,甚至还将完全逆转民主转型,如何解决该冲突成为当前缅甸政治中的重要问题。     

俄罗斯体制转型的发生、路径及其走向

俄罗斯体制转型是俄罗斯社会转型的核心内容。俄罗斯体制转型是在苏联时期高度集权的政治、经济体制弊端毕露及苏联解体的特殊背景之下,以大体上和平方式推进的一次复杂而内容深刻的社会进程。俄罗斯体制转型以自由主义经济改革为路径选择,却得到了一个权威主义与自由主义并存,寡头集团与平民主义兼容的混合型体制的结局,给其它转轨国家的改革以深刻启示。     

金融危机下中东欧转型模式再评估

新兴市场国家经济与政治体制转型是转型问题研究的焦点,而中东欧国家的转型模式也作为一个范例持续得到来自理论和实证研究上的关注.本研究以金融危机发生、演化为背景,旨在检测金融危机背景下中东欧国家的整体经济表现与金融市场表现,并通过分析对国际学术界公认的"转型优等生"中东欧国家的转型模式进行再评估和反思.     

东盟能源转型:困局与展望

东盟能源体系的现况是资源禀赋较好、高碳结构突出、用电水平落后、需求增长旺盛,迫切需要加速能源转型.当前,东盟及其成员国虽然确定了宏大的转型愿景,但是能源转型处境严峻,表现为能源结构呈现碳锁定状态、清洁能源开发力度有限、煤电依赖有增无减、电网建设长期滞后等.其原因在于:部分国家过于强调化石能源的不可替代性,政府决策缺乏稳定性与合理性,传统产业势力抵制转型,清洁能源产业面临融资困难,水电开发面临自然、国际和社会层面的多重阻碍等.东盟能源转型之难凸显了发展中国家的普遍困境,即各国难以兼顾能源供给与能源替代,缺乏转型决心、治理架构、开发资金三个关键动能.中国有能力帮助东盟国家开发重大项目,提升技术实力,加速转型进程.     

外部约束与东亚经济结构转型

长久以来,东亚经济增长一直是在供求要素结构不完备的经济体系下实现的,这一内在缺陷决定了东亚需要借助外部力量才能实现经济增长。外部力量既是东亚外向型经济增长的结构基础,也是影响或控制东亚经济增长的主要制约因素。2008年全球金融危机的爆发预示着有利于东亚经济增长的外部环境发生逆转,迫使东亚开始新一轮的结构调整与转型。而此次结构调整与转型将主要通过对过去经济运行体系特别是市场要素缺失的矫正来实现,以尽可能减少外部力量对经济增长的负面影响。     

乌克兰危机背景下德国对俄政策的转型——基于对外政策学习理论的分析

俄乌冲突爆发后，德国的外交与安全政策迎来了“时代转折”。本文基于综合的对外政策学习理论框架，分析2022年乌克兰危机背景下德国对俄政策转型及其动因。研究结果显示，德国对俄政策经历了政策目标和工具的双重转向，达到了“复杂学习”水平。德国对俄政策实现转型，其动因在于政府内部认知信念发生了转变、盟友的政策扩散，以及吸取了2014年乌克兰危机后对俄制裁不足的教训，并将2010年后有效制裁伊朗的政策转移至对俄政策。但德国对俄政策学习存在局限性，政党政治、公众舆论、克制文化以及利益集团等是德国对俄政策转型可能面临的制约因素。     

菲律宾与印度尼西亚民主转型原因之异同——对《第三波》转型原因观点的验证

第三波民主化浪潮已进入民主巩固阶段,对过去转型的分析有助于对现阶段民主巩固问题的理解.地处东南亚地区的菲律宾与印度尼西亚提供了可资比较的民主转型经验,以亨廷顿<第三波--20世纪后期民主化浪潮>中关于民主转型原因--威权政体政绩与合法性下降、经济发展水平提高、宗教变化、外部因素直接影响和示范效应等五个因素分析为基础,菲律宾与印度尼西亚的比较可以得出结论:威权政体政绩与合法性下降这一因素可能是第三波民主化转型的普遍原因,而经济发展水平提高、宗教变化、外部因素直接影响和示范效应等四个因素可能只是适用范围较小的民主转型原因.     

未经"改造"的"转型"--西方学术界关于后苏联时期俄罗斯经济转型的研究

俄罗斯的转型进程已经持续了十多年了,事实上仍在继续之中.惟其如此,要把握转型进程今后的发展趋势与动向,就更有必要对过去十余年间转型进程的演变及其中引出的问题有深入的了解.本文的要旨,即在于对这一期间西方学术界关于俄罗斯经济转型问题的研究成果作一大略的介绍,并在此基础上对西方学者的有关看法提出批判性的评述.     

近二十年波兰外交转型刍议

近二十年来,伴随着政治和经济领域的转型,波兰外交亦经历了一个发展演变的过程。总体看来,这一过程既带有东欧国家的普遍共性,亦表现出波兰自身的鲜明个性。对1989年以来波兰外交在不同阶段上的变化背景及走向加以考察,并且进一步分析波兰与主要邻国之间的外交关系,在此基础上就后冷战时期波兰外交转型的目标、业已取得的成就与面临的问题及与国内政治发展之间的关系等做出分析与解读,可以更好地理解转型时期波兰外交政策和实践的总体特点和发展轨迹,对于把握波兰外交的未来走向有着重要意义。     

State Continuismo and Pinochetismo: The Keys to the Chilean Transition

There have been two parallel processes in Chilean political economy during the 1990s. A high profile has been accorded to the transition from authoritarianism to democracy and its related debates. A relatively low profile has been accorded to the continuity in the state model of capitalism that was implemented under authoritarianism. This paper argues that transition can be best understood in terms of the role of Augusto Pinochet and his strategies for maintaining power – Pinochetismo. As such, his forced retirement from political life marks the end of transition. The second point is perhaps of more importance however. The democratic political regime has intensified the model of capitalist accumulation of the 1970s and 1980s and socio-economic polarisation has been perpetuated. While the focus on the nature of transition during the 1990s was necessary, there has been a failure to question the social relations established by capitalism. With the end of transition in July 2001, the greatest challenge for Chilean democracy now lies in creating a state based on social relations that serves the needs of the majority rather than the desires of the few.     

中亚国家经济转型的政治—制度基础:来自中国的经验

中亚地区由于地理上和经济上的重要性,以及其尚未完成的转型进程,日益成为国际上高度关注的焦点.本文的目的是详细说明经济转型过程中一个牢靠的政治-制度基础(politico-institutional foundation)是必不可少的;本文还要探讨中亚国家建立这样一个基础的方法.出于相似政治方面的条件,本文把表现出色的中国作为中亚国家发展方向的范例.     

Agrarian Change and the Democratic Transition in Chile: an Introduction

Abstract — The aim of this overview article is to sketch out the broad path of agrarian transformation in Chile since 1973 in order to better contextualise agrarian change and the democratic transition in Chile, the main theme that links the papers in this Special Issue. The legacy of the military government's neoliberal policies on the agricultural sector is analysed before the key themes of agrarian policy during the democratic transition are introduced. The themes of productive transformation and greater equity are focused upon and the articles in this volume put into this context.     

Citizen Activism in the Russian Transition

Two American specialists on Russia report the results of two nationwide surveys conducted in that country in 1992 (N = 1,393) and 1993 (N = 1,598). Focus was on rates and types of political activism and their correlation with attitudes toward economic and political reform. Conclusions are that different types of political activism attract different constituencies. People with higher income and occupational status participate in a wide range of activities but are significantly less likely than others to vote. Those with less to gain from the transition are more likely to vote—perhaps a legacy of communism—but take part less in activities which demand high levels of commitment and resources. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P29, Jl8.     

Regime Transition in Communist Systems: The Soviet Case

An American political scientist reviews existing theories of transition from communism to democracy. Novel arguments suggesting that both regimecentered and society-centered theories underplay important factors, including processes of institution-building and redefinition of interests during the transition itself, are advanced and systematized. Included in the presentation are relevant references to the economy, particularly with regard to such aspects of modernization as urban degradation or change in occupational structures involving convergence of earnings. The paper marshals evidence on the nature of efforts in the USSR to build political organizations that bridge exclusive ethnic and regional identities. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 822.     

The Renovation of Old Institutions: State Governors and the Political Transition in Mexico

The process of political transition in Mexico has fostered several institutional transformations in the political system. Such changes do not modify the system's design, but they do reactivate some basic institutions and forgotten powers that affect the operation of the political system as a whole. The state governors have undergone one of the most relevant transformations: they have gained more autonomy and have forged a new relationship with the federal executive. This essay analyzes the different actions governors have taken depending on their partisan origin. While the PAN governors focus on administrative and financial issues, the PRI governors have developed the most important political challenges to the president's authority.     

东亚结构变迁与中日关系:权力转移理论视角

本文对权力转移理论加以扩展,区分实力与政治权力,并探讨了全球层级体系和区域层级体系并存的情形。借助这一扩展的权力转移理论框架,本文分析了20世纪80年代以来东亚的实力格局和政治权力结构的变迁,中日对东亚政治权力格局态度的变迁,以及前两项对中日关系和东亚区域稳定的影响,并讨论了美国面对中国崛起而采取的对日战略。本文认为,中国崛起所导致的中日两国间的权力转移有利于东亚稳定,但冷战结束以来日本对东亚区域层级体系的态度逐渐由满意转变为不满意,给东亚稳定带来不确定性。本文指出,中国在全面推进与日本的战略互惠关系时,不应在日本"入常"、领土主权等争议上轻易妥协,而应承担起东亚领导者的角色,同时尽可能避免在美国的认知中成为挑战者。     

The Impact of External Factors on Regime Transition: Lessons from the Russian Regions

While many studies have examined the external dimensions of democratization, the role of external anti-democratic factors remains unaddressed. Using an original dataset to analyze the presence and impact of external anti-democratic factors, this article aims to untangle the international dimensions of regime transition by singling out foreign trade. International post-Soviet trade links' impact on subnational political regimes in Russia is analyzed. Trade links between post-Soviet states and their regions are longstanding, dating back to the Soviet or even the tsarist period. The authors hypothesize that this variable was an important factor in regime transition in Russia's regions. The findings have wider implications for area studies and theoretical studies of democratization and regime transition.