The Practice and Impacts of Russian-style Hybrid Warfare

The term hybrid warfare was first coined by US military scholars and later widely adopted in the West to refer to Russian military operations in the Ukrainian and Syrian crises.In Russia,it is called "Gerasimovism".Russia adapted the idea of hybrid warfare for its military operations in Ukraine and Syria into a Russian-style hybrid warfare that has seen successful results so far.This model is likely to impact future military developments.     

Fencing in Warfare: Threats,Punishment, and Intra-war Deterrence in Counterterrorism

New theoretical approaches have been developed that apply deterrence and coercion to counterterrorism. Critics have suggested, however, that in the particular case of deterring terrorism by threats of punishment, a mismatch exists between deterrent goals and counterterrorism intentions: the twin aims of destroying and deterring a single opponent is logically and theoretically incompatible. These criticisms, however, neglect to take two important factors into consideration. First, threats of punishment in counterterrorism can be applied against a wide assortment of actors involved in and associated with terrorism and political violence. Second, the concept of “intra-war deterrence” suggests ways in which a state can deter certain behavior or a specific form of warfare while engaging in open conflict with that same adversary. In exploring both factors, this article posits that states can gain coercive leverage over different actors involved in terrorism, including organizations with which they are actively hoping to defeat.     

从威慑到劝阻:布什政府的战略稳定战略

文章分阶段地对布什政府的战略稳定战略进行了分析和评估。作者认为 ,布什政府的战略稳定思想是经历了一个演变的过程的。文章还着重对布什的“劝阻战略”作了分析 ,认为其形成是出于“战略环境的不稳定性”的考虑和为了“应对突发事件”的发生 ,但在具体实施中 ,布什政府尚缺乏有效的把这一战略付诸实际的操作构想。     

对伊朗核危机的战略解读

伊朗核危机折射出单极霸权与反霸权、能源控制与反控制、金融霸权与反金融霸权、保持军事优势与挑战这种优势等后冷战时代的多种国际政治基本矛盾。该问题的凸显是美国战略决策能力下降的产物,同时,美面对伊朗核问题的疲态,也折射出美国在中东的战略控制能力已近极限。该事件对我们理解国际政治实质颇有启示意义。     

From Israel with Deterrence: Strategic Culture,Intra-war Coercion and Brute Force

This study contributes to the debate on the role of nonnuclear (conventional) deterrence in international security by examining the Israeli practice of this strategy. By analyzing a case outside of Western strategic thought, which traditionally has dominated deterrence theory, it demonstrates how strategic thinking evolves differently in various ideational realms. The article highlights the impact of strategic culture on the Israeli conceptualization of deterrence, explores its deficits, and yields lessons for theoreticians and practitioners from the challenges of intra-war coercion operations. The study introduces the innovative term “culminating point of deterrence,” calls for improving analytical techniques for deterrence evaluation, claims that successful conventional deterrence perpetuates political conflict, stimulates the adversary's dangerous innovations, and argues for a tailored approach not only for formulating deterrence strategy, but also for exploring deterrence policies of different actors. The findings of the study are applicable beyond the Israeli case and are relevant to actors utilizing coercion strategies.     

Thucydides and Deterrence

Thucydides describes ten attempts at deterrence and compellence. With one partial exception, the use of these strategies fail and generally help to provoke the behavior they were meant to prevent. The narrative and speeches in Thucydides' text indicate that leaders everywhere rely on deterrence and compellence and expect them to succeed. Targets of these strategies nevertheless downplay risks and costs when it is contrary to their desires or needs. When motivated by appetite, actors not infrequently indulge in wishful thinking. When motivated by honor, actors are risk accepting and may welcome threats as a means of demonstrating their courage. When motivated by fear, actors worry about the consequences of compliance, which they reason may be more costly than resistance. Thucydides is the first person to frame deterrence and compellence as a strategic interaction problem and to emphasize the determining importance of motives for the strategic calculus of actors. His analysis has important implications for contemporary conflict management.     

核威慑新论

核武器无疑是20世纪留给本世纪最重要的"军事遗产",而由其派生出的核威慑是半个多世纪以来国际安全与战略理论研究的重要内容之一,今天仍被认作是维系大国关系稳定和维护国家安全的重要支柱,但内涵现已发生深刻变化.随着核技术普及与扩散,人类社会正面临前所未有尴尬:核武器及放射性物质一旦落入非国家行为体或不负责任国家手中,其威胁度要比核武器国家更可怕.在此背景下,建立无核武器世界的倡议又被重新提及,但实现这一倡议的最大障碍之一就是奉行了多年的核威慑思想,因而有必要对核威慑进行重新认识.     

Selection Effects and Deterrence

The empirical question of how often deterrent threats issued during international disputes succeed has been hotly debated for years, with some researchers arguing that virtually no robust cases of success can be identified. I argue that what appears to be an empirical and methodological debate actually arises from the inadequacy of classical rational deterrence theory, which fails to comprehend the implications of states' strategic self-selection into international disputes. Rational self-selection is shown to imply that in a sample of crises, deterrent threats issued after an initial challenge will tend to fail in precisely those cases where they are relatively most credible signals of an intent to resist with force. The product of a selection effect, this paradoxical implication allows a resolution of the debate on the efficacy of deterrence in crises. And because selection effects can arise whenever a historical "case" is the product of choices by actors who also influence the outcome in question, this example from the study of deterrence has broad relevance for empirical research.     

墨中战略伙伴关系的潜力

随着中国在21世纪国际事务中的重要性不断上升,加强对华关系应长期成为墨西哥外交政策的优先点。从政治角度看,墨中战略伙伴关系不仅为双方共同关注的问题提供了令人满意的解决之道,同时也有利于两国加强双边政治对话与合作。从经济角度看,中国快速发展为墨西哥企业提供了巨大机遇,促使它们明确意识到现在必须要有所作为。基于上述理由,墨西哥应该在双边和多边领域中采取持续不断的行动,加强与中国的战略伙伴关系。“墨中政府间常设委员会”的建立为21世纪墨中战略伙伴关系进一步发展提供了一个新平台。     

Deterrence,uncertainty and cooperative behavior

The paper analyzes deterrence relationships in situations when the relevant forms of behavior are subject to lags such as in the case of foreign interventions and technological arms races. Mutual deterrence is a way of inducing cooperative behavior. Successful deterrence, in the cases considered, can be considered as ways of inducing cooperative behaviors in Prisoners’ Dilemma Supergames, the model used in this paper. It is argued that, in general, deterrence is more likely to be successful and hence cooperative behavior more prevalent in systems where the actors can move between strategies quickly (i.e., are flexible) and which are characterized by low uncertainty. The paper also analyzes the concept of discounting and time preference in the discussion of political phenomena where the concept has no market interpretation. It is analyzed as a rational response to uncertainty.     

International Relations Theory and Minimum Deterrence

ABSTRACT

India’s government under Narendra Modi represents a return to single party rule. This paper investigates whether and why single party governments in India differ in their extremity of foreign policies from coalition governments. It particularly focuses on how different forms of government influence the saliency, contestation, and enactment of national conceptions about India’s global role. First, I situate India within the academic debate regarding coalitional governments and foreign policy. I suggest that one reason why India challenges scholars‘ assumption is the missing link between partisan conceptions of India’s global role and their institutional representation. Second, I propose a role theoretical approach and argue that the process of self-identification, consisting of ego and anticipated alter expectations, conditions a state’s role set and extreme foreign policy. It is hypothesized that the nature of contestation of national role conceptions varies between factions and fractions because of the nature of India’s party system, as well as the relative significance of external others for India’s identity. Third, I examine instances of role-taking in the field of nuclearization and Sino-Indian relations. Findings suggest that contested role conceptions during single-party rule caused more extreme variances in international role-taking, while coalition governments proved to induce more complementary role-taking processes.     

可持续发展位与当代中国的全球战略选择

美国马里兰大学政治学教授丹尼斯·皮奇雷斯在《国际关系学的新内容——全球经济政治学》一书中,将“全球经济政治学”界定为“关于经济、生态、环境以及伦理问题的新的国际政治学”,在他看来,这是一种新的理论范式,即“一系列全新的观念和行为准则的总括”。这为我们研究21世纪的国际关系提供了一个全新的视野。当代中国正在以一种新的形象和平崛起于世界,世界也普遍欢迎中国的和平崛起。面对全球政治的“新范式”,中国和平崛起应包括更丰富的时代内涵和更广泛的全球认同的文化价值。本文认为,确立可持续发展位的意识和位势,是当代中国全球…     

Information Warfare and Security

The on-going information revolution has spurred drastic transformations in the military field, exerting far-reaching impact on the world peace and security. This can be seen in strategic or political terms as well as in the form of war and military theory. More specifically, the impact will be felt in the following seven arenas.     

核学习与印巴核威慑的稳定性分析

在西方国际政治学界 ,自 2 0世纪 70年代后期以来 ,有关学习理论及其在外交上的应用 ,一直是热门话题之一。约瑟夫·奈提出的核学习概念即是学习理论的重要成果之一。本文借助他对核学习的论述 ,来考察印巴之间的核学习及其对印巴核威慑稳定性的作用。文章认为 ,印巴之间所经历的六年多时间的核学习 ,在一定程度上促进了印巴之间核威慑的稳定性。但是 ,印巴核学习还有很长的路要走 ,而随着核学习进程的不断深入 ,印巴之间的核威慑关系将会更加稳定。     

信息化战争的特点及其要求

"战争是独立的政体(国家)或政治团体之间有组织地使用武力的一种行为和现象,战争的目的主要是为了解决那些无法通过和平的外交方式解决的问题和冲突。"有史以来,战争就与人类如影随形,战争的形态也随着人类社会生产力水平的提高和科学技术的进步而不断演变。20世纪90年代以来,计算机技术飞速发展并取得了广泛应用,互联网     

Stuxnet and the Limits of Cyber Warfare

American foreign policy analysts have generally viewed World War II as the most important of the six wars the country fought in the twentieth century. By entering this war, so the argument goes, the United States prevented the gravest geopolitical threat to its security—German and Japanese hegemonies in Eurasia—from materializing. Careful reexamination of the best case for U.S. entry into World War II, made by Nicholas Spykman in 1942, demonstrates that the traditional view is misplaced: the United States could have remained secure over the long term had it not entered the war and had it allowed Germany and Japan to win. Its standard of living and its way of life, however, would most likely have suffered. Avoidance of those two outcomes was the real reason to have entered the war. The implications of this analysis for balance of power theory and current American grand strategy are spelled out.     

中东动荡及其对世界政治的影响

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为当前北非、中东变局及其影响的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

Getting a Grip on Tailored Deterrence: The World of Conflict Management

The assumption that the United States operates from a position of strength relative to its potential enemy underpins U.S. deterrence theory. This perceived strength has emboldened American administrations to take serious tactical risks, such as the positioning of aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean during the 1973 Yom Kippur War in order to dissuade Soviet intervention in that conflict. This tacit assumption, facilitated and entrenched by overwhelming U.S.conventional military superiority in the post-Cold War era, forms the foundation both for the relatively recent developmentof tailored deterrence and for the “Flexible Deterrence Options” (FDO) that now constitute a routine aspectof the joint military planning process. This article argues that the tacit assumption of strength is too narrow and can promote the implementation of deterrent policies and actions that have the opposite effects of those intended. Deterrence, rightly understood, is a component of a conflict management strategy which implies a degree of weakness on the part of the statethat employs it. This condition must be recognized and then incorporated into policies and plans for deterrence.