Fencing in Warfare: Threats,Punishment, and Intra-war Deterrence in Counterterrorism

New theoretical approaches have been developed that apply deterrence and coercion to counterterrorism. Critics have suggested, however, that in the particular case of deterring terrorism by threats of punishment, a mismatch exists between deterrent goals and counterterrorism intentions: the twin aims of destroying and deterring a single opponent is logically and theoretically incompatible. These criticisms, however, neglect to take two important factors into consideration. First, threats of punishment in counterterrorism can be applied against a wide assortment of actors involved in and associated with terrorism and political violence. Second, the concept of “intra-war deterrence” suggests ways in which a state can deter certain behavior or a specific form of warfare while engaging in open conflict with that same adversary. In exploring both factors, this article posits that states can gain coercive leverage over different actors involved in terrorism, including organizations with which they are actively hoping to defeat.     

The Practice and Impacts of Russian-style Hybrid Warfare

The term hybrid warfare was first coined by US military scholars and later widely adopted in the West to refer to Russian military operations in the Ukrainian and Syrian crises.In Russia,it is called "Gerasimovism".Russia adapted the idea of hybrid warfare for its military operations in Ukraine and Syria into a Russian-style hybrid warfare that has seen successful results so far.This model is likely to impact future military developments.     

从威慑到劝阻:布什政府的战略稳定战略

文章分阶段地对布什政府的战略稳定战略进行了分析和评估。作者认为 ,布什政府的战略稳定思想是经历了一个演变的过程的。文章还着重对布什的“劝阻战略”作了分析 ,认为其形成是出于“战略环境的不稳定性”的考虑和为了“应对突发事件”的发生 ,但在具体实施中 ,布什政府尚缺乏有效的把这一战略付诸实际的操作构想。     

From Israel with Deterrence: Strategic Culture,Intra-war Coercion and Brute Force

This study contributes to the debate on the role of nonnuclear (conventional) deterrence in international security by examining the Israeli practice of this strategy. By analyzing a case outside of Western strategic thought, which traditionally has dominated deterrence theory, it demonstrates how strategic thinking evolves differently in various ideational realms. The article highlights the impact of strategic culture on the Israeli conceptualization of deterrence, explores its deficits, and yields lessons for theoreticians and practitioners from the challenges of intra-war coercion operations. The study introduces the innovative term “culminating point of deterrence,” calls for improving analytical techniques for deterrence evaluation, claims that successful conventional deterrence perpetuates political conflict, stimulates the adversary's dangerous innovations, and argues for a tailored approach not only for formulating deterrence strategy, but also for exploring deterrence policies of different actors. The findings of the study are applicable beyond the Israeli case and are relevant to actors utilizing coercion strategies.     

对伊朗核危机的战略解读

伊朗核危机折射出单极霸权与反霸权、能源控制与反控制、金融霸权与反金融霸权、保持军事优势与挑战这种优势等后冷战时代的多种国际政治基本矛盾。该问题的凸显是美国战略决策能力下降的产物,同时,美面对伊朗核问题的疲态,也折射出美国在中东的战略控制能力已近极限。该事件对我们理解国际政治实质颇有启示意义。     

Thucydides and Deterrence

Thucydides describes ten attempts at deterrence and compellence. With one partial exception, the use of these strategies fail and generally help to provoke the behavior they were meant to prevent. The narrative and speeches in Thucydides' text indicate that leaders everywhere rely on deterrence and compellence and expect them to succeed. Targets of these strategies nevertheless downplay risks and costs when it is contrary to their desires or needs. When motivated by appetite, actors not infrequently indulge in wishful thinking. When motivated by honor, actors are risk accepting and may welcome threats as a means of demonstrating their courage. When motivated by fear, actors worry about the consequences of compliance, which they reason may be more costly than resistance. Thucydides is the first person to frame deterrence and compellence as a strategic interaction problem and to emphasize the determining importance of motives for the strategic calculus of actors. His analysis has important implications for contemporary conflict management.     

Selection Effects and Deterrence

The empirical question of how often deterrent threats issued during international disputes succeed has been hotly debated for years, with some researchers arguing that virtually no robust cases of success can be identified. I argue that what appears to be an empirical and methodological debate actually arises from the inadequacy of classical rational deterrence theory, which fails to comprehend the implications of states' strategic self-selection into international disputes. Rational self-selection is shown to imply that in a sample of crises, deterrent threats issued after an initial challenge will tend to fail in precisely those cases where they are relatively most credible signals of an intent to resist with force. The product of a selection effect, this paradoxical implication allows a resolution of the debate on the efficacy of deterrence in crises. And because selection effects can arise whenever a historical "case" is the product of choices by actors who also influence the outcome in question, this example from the study of deterrence has broad relevance for empirical research.     

核威慑新论

核武器无疑是20世纪留给本世纪最重要的"军事遗产",而由其派生出的核威慑是半个多世纪以来国际安全与战略理论研究的重要内容之一,今天仍被认作是维系大国关系稳定和维护国家安全的重要支柱,但内涵现已发生深刻变化.随着核技术普及与扩散,人类社会正面临前所未有尴尬:核武器及放射性物质一旦落入非国家行为体或不负责任国家手中,其威胁度要比核武器国家更可怕.在此背景下,建立无核武器世界的倡议又被重新提及,但实现这一倡议的最大障碍之一就是奉行了多年的核威慑思想,因而有必要对核威慑进行重新认识.     

美国“一体化威慑”的战略逻辑：以AUKUS的演进为范例

在大国竞争背景下,美国拜登政府正式提出并实践“一体化威慑”战略概念。“一体化威慑”意味着通过跨越领域、区域、冲突域、部门、盟国和伙伴等五个维度的“一体化”调度,统筹“拒止性威慑”“韧性威慑”“直接和集体施加成本进行威慑”三种威慑逻辑,针对特定的竞争对手和安全问题施加威慑。在战略逻辑上,美国以“不对称多极”格局为基础,以海洋特别是西太平洋为主要场域,以中国为主要威慑对象并以“印太”为建构区域,通过“网络化”的作用方式,灵活统筹并“量身定制”地施加威慑。在“印太战略”推进下,“美英澳三边安全伙伴关系”(AUKUS)成为美国实施“一体化威慑”的范例。AUKUS由美国联合最亲密盟友发起,针对美国所谓的战略竞争对手中国,以西太平洋特别是南海、台海、东海为战略前沿,通过将“欧洲—大西洋”引入“印度—太平洋”来加强跨区域威慑,并以“全政府”方式运作,囊括核潜艇、高超声速等先进能力、网络和太空等重要领域,考虑不同冲突形态,不断取得进展。然而,AUKUS的进一步推进将面临诸多“一体化威慑”固有的内在和外在困难,未来仍存在不确定性。     

墨中战略伙伴关系的潜力

随着中国在21世纪国际事务中的重要性不断上升,加强对华关系应长期成为墨西哥外交政策的优先点。从政治角度看,墨中战略伙伴关系不仅为双方共同关注的问题提供了令人满意的解决之道,同时也有利于两国加强双边政治对话与合作。从经济角度看,中国快速发展为墨西哥企业提供了巨大机遇,促使它们明确意识到现在必须要有所作为。基于上述理由,墨西哥应该在双边和多边领域中采取持续不断的行动,加强与中国的战略伙伴关系。“墨中政府间常设委员会”的建立为21世纪墨中战略伙伴关系进一步发展提供了一个新平台。     

可持续发展位与当代中国的全球战略选择

美国马里兰大学政治学教授丹尼斯·皮奇雷斯在《国际关系学的新内容——全球经济政治学》一书中,将“全球经济政治学”界定为“关于经济、生态、环境以及伦理问题的新的国际政治学”,在他看来,这是一种新的理论范式,即“一系列全新的观念和行为准则的总括”。这为我们研究21世纪的国际关系提供了一个全新的视野。当代中国正在以一种新的形象和平崛起于世界,世界也普遍欢迎中国的和平崛起。面对全球政治的“新范式”,中国和平崛起应包括更丰富的时代内涵和更广泛的全球认同的文化价值。本文认为,确立可持续发展位的意识和位势,是当代中国全球…     

Deterrence,uncertainty and cooperative behavior

The paper analyzes deterrence relationships in situations when the relevant forms of behavior are subject to lags such as in the case of foreign interventions and technological arms races. Mutual deterrence is a way of inducing cooperative behavior. Successful deterrence, in the cases considered, can be considered as ways of inducing cooperative behaviors in Prisoners’ Dilemma Supergames, the model used in this paper. It is argued that, in general, deterrence is more likely to be successful and hence cooperative behavior more prevalent in systems where the actors can move between strategies quickly (i.e., are flexible) and which are characterized by low uncertainty. The paper also analyzes the concept of discounting and time preference in the discussion of political phenomena where the concept has no market interpretation. It is analyzed as a rational response to uncertainty.     

International Relations Theory and Minimum Deterrence

ABSTRACT

India’s government under Narendra Modi represents a return to single party rule. This paper investigates whether and why single party governments in India differ in their extremity of foreign policies from coalition governments. It particularly focuses on how different forms of government influence the saliency, contestation, and enactment of national conceptions about India’s global role. First, I situate India within the academic debate regarding coalitional governments and foreign policy. I suggest that one reason why India challenges scholars‘ assumption is the missing link between partisan conceptions of India’s global role and their institutional representation. Second, I propose a role theoretical approach and argue that the process of self-identification, consisting of ego and anticipated alter expectations, conditions a state’s role set and extreme foreign policy. It is hypothesized that the nature of contestation of national role conceptions varies between factions and fractions because of the nature of India’s party system, as well as the relative significance of external others for India’s identity. Third, I examine instances of role-taking in the field of nuclearization and Sino-Indian relations. Findings suggest that contested role conceptions during single-party rule caused more extreme variances in international role-taking, while coalition governments proved to induce more complementary role-taking processes.     

Alliance Proximity and Effectiveness of Extended Deterrence

This article examines whether geographical proximity between defensive allies and a protégé increases the likelihood of successful extended general deterrence. I argue that proximate allies are better at making a credible deterrent threat because proximate allies are more willing and able to help alliance partners in times of crisis than distant ones. This claim is theorized by examining how geographical distance influences the international and domestic costs of alliance commitments. The empirical tests reveal that a potential aggressor is less likely to initiate a militarized dispute against a target with proximate defensive allies. Furthermore, I find that the power of proximate defensive allies is a more significant determinant of successful extended general deterrence than that of distance allies. Interestingly, I also find that the constraining effects of geographical distance on the effectiveness of extended general deterrence have been alleviated by advancements in military technologies throughout history.     

Information Warfare and Security

The on-going information revolution has spurred drastic transformations in the military field, exerting far-reaching impact on the world peace and security. This can be seen in strategic or political terms as well as in the form of war and military theory. More specifically, the impact will be felt in the following seven arenas.     

网络威慑与霸权重塑：美国网络威慑战略的演化及动因探析

网络空间正在成为信息化时代美国全球战略竞争的主要领域之一。为适应迅速扩张、充满不确定性的网络环境,美国将传统威慑理念引入网络安全战略领域,以网络威慑作为其追求安全利益、扩大竞争优势、重塑国际霸权的重要手段。美国的网络威慑战略不断调整,先后经历了被动应对、主动防御、攻势主导和立体威慑四个阶段,在网络霸权追求的驱使下呈现出威慑态势日益强化、威慑体系不断完善、攻防兼备且偏重实战等趋势。美国的网络威慑战略强化受到多种内外动因的影响,是安全—利益考量、权力—政治诉求、思想—文化根源以及社会—经济因素等变量叠加作用的结果。美国企图超越传统的战略逻辑,但其战略制定与实施并未单纯地停留在“安全”层面上,而是在激进特征的推动下进行战略的演化发展,其安全思维背后的霸权实质形成了一种战略悖论,不仅造成美国的内在逻辑困境,还将导致攻防相悖的脆弱安全环境并动摇国家间的战略平衡。     

核学习与印巴核威慑的稳定性分析

在西方国际政治学界 ,自 2 0世纪 70年代后期以来 ,有关学习理论及其在外交上的应用 ,一直是热门话题之一。约瑟夫·奈提出的核学习概念即是学习理论的重要成果之一。本文借助他对核学习的论述 ,来考察印巴之间的核学习及其对印巴核威慑稳定性的作用。文章认为 ,印巴之间所经历的六年多时间的核学习 ,在一定程度上促进了印巴之间核威慑的稳定性。但是 ,印巴核学习还有很长的路要走 ,而随着核学习进程的不断深入 ,印巴之间的核威慑关系将会更加稳定。