The Impact of Housing Submarkets and Urban Form on the Foreclosure Crisis in U.S. Urban Counties

In this article, the authors introduce a novel way to define and measure housing submarkets in relation to foreclosures. Instead of the traditional methods of identifying submarkets a priori, this study uses an approach that empirically delineates housing submarkets based on spatial contiguity and housing attributes. The spatial clustering algorithm developed for this study identified submarkets in each of the urban counties. A spatial regression model was then used to assess the impact of submarket structure on foreclosure rates. In addition, the study also incorporates a measure of sprawl in its analysis. It was found that sprawling counties are not more likely to have higher rates of foreclosures compared with average rates. However, the counties with smaller and more fragmented housing submarkets are likely to have lower rates of foreclosures. The results suggest that urban form is less consequential than housing market structure in affecting U.S. housing market dynamics.     

Household Energy Consumption and Housing Choice in the U.S. Residential Sector

Energy use in residential buildings accounted for 21% of U.S. CO₂ emissions in 2013. Efforts to reduce energy use in the residential sector have been overly focused on improving energy efficiency of buildings. This article incorporates housing policy debate into energy policy, hoping to provide new opportunities for planners to participate in residential energy policy. Using data from the latest Residential Energy Consumption Survey, structural equation modeling has been applied to isolate the direct and indirect effects of household and housing characteristics on residential energy use. Results show that more than 80% of a household's indirect effect on energy consumption happens through the building characteristics, which is characterized as the housing choice effect on energy consumption. Planners can participate in residential energy management efforts by influencing housing needs and priorities of communities towards more sustainable compact housing units.     

The spatial mismatch hypothesis: A review of recent studies and their implications for welfare reform

Abstract

In 1992, Housing Policy Debate published John Kain's comprehensive review of the extensive scholarly literature on the spatial mismatch hypothesis. This hypothesis maintains that the suburbanization of jobs and involuntary housing market segregation have acted together to create a surplus of workers relative to the number of available jobs in submetropolitan areas where blacks are concentrated.

Since Kain's review, more than two dozen new studies on the spatial mismatch hypothesis have been completed. Generally, these studies use more suitable data and superior methodologies than earlier studies and therefore provide the most reliable evidence to date on the spatial mismatch hypothesis. This article critically reviews the new studies and assesses what implications can be drawn for welfare reform.     

Neighborhood change and the city of New York's ten‐year housing plan

Abstract

This article examines neighborhood changes associated with New York City's Ten‐Year Plan—the largest municipal housing program in the United States. We examine indicators of change, in the context of two possible hypotheses about the program's impact: (1) neighborhood revitalization, including improved physical and housing market conditions, as well as gentrification, and (2) the concentration of poor and welfare‐dependent households, as well as the possibility of residential segregation by race or ethnicity.

Our results present a mixed picture, with some evidence favoring both hypotheses, especially when parts of the city, particularly the South Bronx, are examined separately. Specifically, the program is associated with steep declines in the rate of boarded‐up buildings and some indications of increased home values, as well as rent burdens. However, it is also correlated with increases in maintenance deficiencies and a greater proportion of poor, single‐parent, and welfare‐dependent households, but there is little evidence of accentuated residential segregation.     

Low‐Income Housing Development,Poverty Concentration,and Neighborhood Inequality

Considerable debate exists about the merits of place‐based programs that steer new development, and particularly affordable housing development, into low‐income neighborhoods. Exploiting quasi‐experimental variation in incentives to construct and rehabilitate rental housing across neighborhoods generated by Low‐Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program rules, we explore the impacts of subsidized development on local housing construction, poverty concentration, and neighborhood inequality. While a large fraction of rental housing development spurred by the program is offset by a reduction in the number of new unsubsidized units, housing investment under the LIHTC has measurable effects on the distribution of income within and across communities. However, there is little evidence the program contributes meaningfully to poverty concentration or residential segregation.     

A different lens: administrative perspectives on portability in Illinois' Housing Choice Voucher Program

Over the last decade, the Housing Choice Voucher Program has grown to become the USA's primary strategy for providing safe, decent, and affordable housing. Annually serving more than 2 million low-income households, the program is designed to help low-income households afford private market rental housing. The program also allows for the “portability” of vouchers nationally between housing authority jurisdictions. Both features aim to mitigate the effects of concentrated poverty. Research on the Moving to Opportunity Program and the Gautreaux consent decree have produced data confirming that residential mobility can at times lead to positive opportunities for assisted households. This past research has been conducted on specific programs occurring outside of the general Housing Choice Voucher Program framework and has focused on household-level outcomes, paying little attention to the ways in which program administration may affect outcomes for voucher households. This article aims to understand voucher portability from the perspective of housing authority executive directors and program administrators, in order to better understand how program administration impacts the types of household outcomes observed in prior research. The results reveal that housing authority administrative practices and inter-housing authority relationships play a significant role in shaping the types of outcomes realized by porting voucher households. These findings suggest several changes to program administrative design and policy that may improve support for voucher households as they make portability moves.     

Retracting suburbia: Smart growth and the future of housing

Abstract

Metropolitan areas throughout the United States increasingly experience sprawl development. States such as Oregon and Maryland have enacted land use legislation that curbs sprawl by promoting denser urban growth. Smart growth, a new method of metropolitan development leading to more compact regions, offers an alternative to sprawl. Given that housing comprises a major share of the built environment, policies that promote denser residential development form a key component of smart growth.

This article provides an analytic review of the ways housing can be used to support successful smart growth policies. It focuses on three areas: the market for higher density housing, land use issues associated with denser housing development, and methods for financing higher density and mixed‐use housing. The literature on the link between smart growth and housing remains underdeveloped. We offer this synthesis as a way to advance the state of knowledge on smart growth's housing dimension.     

Affordability After Subsidies: Understanding the Trajectories of Former Assisted Housing in Florida

Each year, thousands of units are lost from the assisted rental housing inventory through deterioration and default, subsidy expiration, and market-rate conversion. While a good deal of research and data collection has focused on identifying at-risk developments, less is known about what happens to former assisted developments after they exit income and rent restrictions. This article uses a survey of former assisted properties in Florida to identify their postsubsidy trajectories—that is, as to whether developments continue as rental housing, are converted to condominiums, or leave the housing stock through vacancy and demolition; and for those that continue as rental housing, whether they continue to offer affordable rents. Using logistic regression models, the article examines the property, housing market, and neighborhood characteristics that determine these trajectories. The results show that smaller properties, those that have been out of subsidy programs longer, and those in stronger neighborhood housing markets are more likely to be converted to condominiums. Among developments that continue as rental housing, those that previously had more stringent rent restrictions, those in strong rental submarkets, and those with better transit access tend to become unaffordable compared with previous rent limits.     

Interpreting the dynamics of public housing: Cultural and rational choice explanations

Abstract

This article uses culture of poverty and rational choice theories of poverty to explain how quickly nonelderly household heads leave public housing. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics serve as the basis for the analysis.

Although a significant proportion of all household heads have public housing spells lasting five or more years, the majority have spells lasting less than five years. The availability of other housing options has a strong impact on how quickly individuals move out of public housing. Family structure and human capital play a more modest role. To the extent that one's childhood experiences affect the likelihood of exiting public housing, they appear to do so mostly through their effect on the acquisition of human capital. Finally, the evidence presented is inconsistent with the notion that public housing is a trap from which it is more difficult to escape the longer one lives in it.     

Why Do Housing Mobility Programs Fail in Moving Households to Better Neighborhoods?

This article conceptualizes the relationship between housing instability, residential mobility, and neighborhood quality. We summarize the existing literature about residential mobility and housing instability and examine their potential interactions along three dimensions: (a) the reasons for a move, including a variety of push and pull factors; (b) mobility outcomes in terms of whether moves result in residing in a better or worse neighborhood than that of the prior residence; and, especially important for low-income households, (c) the degree to which the current move and past experiences of moving have been discretionary or forced. Housing instability is a cumulative concept, with involuntary moves at its center. This synthetic model of housing instability's impact on mobility outcomes suggests that the more instability a household has experienced, the less likely mobility moves are to occur, or, if they do occur, to be long lasting. Policy implementation may underestimate the interaction between cumulative housing instability and residential mobility in housing mobility policies. Thus, these interactions have implications for mobility policies, pointing toward a path for future research that inform policies to move low-income households toward both greater housing stability and better neighborhood outcomes.     

Spatially and Sequentially Heterogeneous Discounts of Distressed Property Values in Cuyahoga County,Ohio

One of the most persistent public policy debates is over the aftermath of the foreclosure crisis and its continuing impact on housing markets. Distressed properties – including foreclosure and real estate-owned properties – tend to be sold at much lower prices than nearby comparable properties, often pulling down both surrounding property values and neighborhood morale. Recent findings show that these discounts for distressed properties are associated with various factors, but three important dimensions of these discounts remain relatively unexplored. First among these is the degree of variation in these discounts, even within the same regional market. Second is how discounts vary through the typical sequence of the distressed property transaction cycle. The final factor is the nature by which discounts vary according to the market participants – are the buyers/sellers individuals or institutions? This study examines these major factors affecting discounts, and estimates the spatially and sequentially heterogeneous discounts for distressed properties in the housing submarkets of Cuyahoga County, Ohio. Findings indicate that the discounts of distressed properties in the strong and weak submarkets substantially vary based on all three of these previously overlooked factors, yielding a more complex and nuanced housing context for practitioners and policymakers to consider.     

More Than Meets the Market? Landlord Agency in the Illinois Housing Choice Voucher Program

The federal Housing Choice Voucher Program currently serves as one of the nation's predominant strategies for providing affordable rental housing for low-income households. The program is designed around two goals: first, to uphold the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's mission to provide safe, decent, and affordable housing; and second, to facilitate household residential location choices, with the idea that such choices can leverage other types of nonhousing opportunities for assisted households. While scholarly research has described a range of positive and negative household outcomes associated with the voucher subsidy, less is known about how those outcomes are produced on the ground. This research describes findings from 72 in-depth interviews with Illinois landlords and other voucher program stakeholders regarding their experiences with the program, with the goal of linking landlord practices to tenant outcomes. Findings of this research underscore the substantial influence that landlords have on assisted-household residential location choice and tenure, and show the potential for voucher program design to more actively engage with landlords as providers of supports that extend beyond the housing unit.     

Do Homeowners Associations Affect Citywide Segregation? Evidence From Florida Municipalities

Homeowners associations (HOAs) have become one of the most popular housing options, offering residents supplemental services, amenities, as well as exclusivity and protection. HOAs are touted for their potential to improve the match between household preferences and local services, but denounced for, among other things, their tendency to facilitate residential segregation. Yet, despite growing claims, these propositions have not been rigorously tested. The expectation is that if households do sort into HOAs based on income or race/ethnicity, then these associations can affect segregation by encouraging exclusive and homogeneous living environments. However, HOAs may actually offer a unique vehicle for racial and/or economic mixing or, at the other extreme, they may not influence segregation if residents do not rely on HOAs to sort along racial or economic lines. Unlike previous studies, the current analysis observes jurisdictions over multiple decades in an attempt to better identify whether the growth in HOAs is driving changes in segregation. Using a unique, longitudinal database of HOAs in Florida and multiple measures of segregation, this article tests the effect of HOAs on jurisdiction racial/ethnic and economic segregation. Results from both ordinary least squares and instrumental variable regressions indicate that an increase in HOA presence exacerbates black–white and Hispanic–white residential segregation. Any segregation, however, is tempered by the concentration of HOA units in larger communities. On the contrary, there is no significant effect on income segregation; this suggests that HOAs do not intensify existing tendencies toward income sorting.     

Some possible directions for research on multifamily housing

Abstract

The combination of a growing demand for information and a literature that has not emphasized multifamily housing has produced an information gap in multifamily housing research. This article seeks to shed light on the areas in which the information gap is widest and to put forth a research agenda for the study of multifamily housing. The article starts from a definition of multifamily housing that includes all rental housing in structures with five or more units, and it goes on to develop a more precise definition. Next the various components of the market for multifamily housing are discussed. These include the demand and supply of multifamily housing and its sources of financing. The discussion examines each of these components with an eye toward identifying questions and issues in need of further study. Data needed for further research are the subject of the sixth section. The final section highlights questions of particular interest to public policy makers.

Because of the lack of information about multifamily properties, the list of possible research questions is long. A better understanding is needed of how multifamily housing markets operate—for example, what factors influence the supply of multifamily housing and how it is financed. There is also a need to examine specific public policy issues, including the impact of tax policy on residential rents, ways of detecting financial distress in federally insured multifamily properties, and the performance of nonprofit organizations in delivering and maintaining affordable multifamily housing. Recently released data from the 1991 Survey of Residential Finance, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's planned 1995 Landlord Survey, and the newly founded Multifamily Housing Institute could play key roles in studying these questions.     

New York city and subsidized housing: Impacts and lessons of the city's $5 billion capital budget housing plan

Abstract

New York City has devoted far more resources to the development and rehabilitation of affordable housing than any other U.S. city, investing more than $4 billion from 1986 to 1997. This article surveys the impact, status, and implications of New York's housing programs. It looks at correlations between publicly funded housing starts and changes in the housing stock, welfare rolls, and crime and at the economic impact of the city's housing investments within low‐income neighborhoods.

New York's housing programs have transformed neighborhoods, replacing large swaths of abandoned shells and vacant land with new housing and preserving thousands of buildings at risk of abandonment. While these housing investments correlate most strongly with reductions in vacant units and vacant lots, they also show significant correlations with reductions in welfare rolls and violent crime, but uneven economic impacts as well. New York's housing programs are important nationally less for the specifics of particular programs than for the institutional collaborations on which they are founded.     

Fighting Housing Discrimination in Europe

ABSTRACT

There is no exact European equivalent to the U.S. Fair Housing Act. The member states of the European Union (EU) have transposed into law the EU Racial Equality Directive of 2000 that prohibits discrimination in, among other things, access to the supply of goods and services, including housing, on the basis of race. Most housing discrimination case law so far comes from nonbinding decisions of the European Court of Human Rights and European Committee of Social Rights under the revised European Social Charter of the Council of Europe. This article explains how the European context of discrimination and segregation differs from the American, reviews the major legal conventions establishing equal rights in housing, protected classes, and key precedents. It discusses how mixing policies in social housing are the primary mechanism to reduce residential segregation in Europe. The special case of extreme discrimination against the Roma is presented, before concluding with some comparative observations.     

Japan,the US,and the emergence of multilateralism in Asia

APEC's founding and subsequent development has been seen as primarily driven by the ‘middle’ and smaller powers of Asia, such as Australia and the ASEAN countries, with Japan as a secondary, if supportive, and the US as a passive and reluctant, player. This article, while acknowledging Australia's essential leadership in the founding process, uses new evidence about it to revise views of Japan and the US's roles in APEC. I argue that the former played a more major role in APEC's founding and that the latter was more positive in its thinking about that forum than has been acknowledged. This should force us to rethink the politics of APEC, paying more attention to how the political economy and relationship of the two major powers in the region influence the patterns of cooperation and conflict in it. It should also lead us to reconsider the efficacy of the major theories of international relations that might be used to explain APEC's politics and development.     

Credit scores,race, and residential sorting

Credit scores have a profound impact on home purchasing power and mortgage pricing, yet little is known about how credit scores influence households' residential location decisions. This study estimates the effects of credit scores on residential sorting behavior using a novel mortgage industry data set combining household demographic, credit, and financial data with property location information and detailed community attribute data. I employ the data set to estimate a discrete‐choice residential sorting model. I find that credit scores significantly predict residential sorting behavior and models that do not account for credit score provide biased estimates of housing utilities for black households in particular. Simulation results show that increases in credit score are associated with increases in the consumption of higher‐priced homes in more expensive school districts, higher‐quality public schools, and proximity to urban/metropolitan areas. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Rethinking Locational Outcomes for Housing Choice Vouchers: A Case Study in Duval County,Florida

This study examines locational patterns of housing choice vouchers in Duval County, Florida, using the Housing Suitability Model (HSM), a newly developed geographic information system–based model that evaluates residential land parcels and neighborhoods in terms of their suitability for affordable housing. The HSM was used to characterize voucher locations and other residential parcels across the county in terms of opportunity and accessibility. The analysis explores the tradeoffs between opportunity and accessibility inherent in many neighborhoods throughout the county. It finds that voucher holders' locations lag substantially behind other residential locations in terms of opportunity measures but are more comparable in terms of accessibility. Further analysis finds differences in opportunity and accessibility among subgroups of voucher holders by various demographic characteristics. The study recommends the incorporation of opportunity and accessibility for voucher holders into local housing planning, including the implementation of proposed rules for Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing.     

Declining foreclosure neighborhood effects over time

According to previous studies, residential foreclosures reduce the value of neighboring residential units and the initial negative effects decay over time and space. This study attempts to investigate the temporal path of the initial effects by following cohorts of single-family housing distressed sales (foreclosures and real estate owned sales) over time. A hedonic model estimation of single-family housing sales in Saint Louis County, Missouri, produced larger marginal impacts for new distressed sales in the year 2000 compared with the marginal impact of new distressed sales in 2007, that is, the marginal impact of new distressed sales is declining in at least one housing market. This result holds true for the distressed sale neighborhood impact, the effect of distress on the same unit's future sales price, and the discount on a distressed unit's current “liquidation sale” price.