Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

ABSTRACT

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk: reoffending rates for rapists,child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

Abstract

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.     

Static risk factors predict sexual misconduct among incarcerated female sexual offenders

Abstract

Although there has been a great deal of research conducted on sexual offenders in recent years, the vast majority of studies have focused on male perpetrators. Little is known about female sexual perpetrators, due primarily to the small number of offenders/offences and sociocultural factors. This study evaluated if there was an association between static risk factors [as delineated by the Static-99 and Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR)] and institutional sexual misconduct for incarcerated female sexual offenders. In addition to demographic information, total Static scores were obtained from a file review along with institutional conduct reports. The STATIC-99 and RRASOR scores from intake information significantly predicted sexual conduct reports in prison.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

The relationship between risk,deviance, treatment outcome and sexual reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers completing residential treatment for their offending

Abstract

The study investigated the relationship between static and dynamic risk and reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers who had completed a long-term residential treatment programme for their sexual behaviour problems. Results found that only High/Very High risk men as measured by a static risk assessment schedule (Risk Matrix 2000) were reconvicted for sexual offences (17% over a 2-year period, 42% over a 5-year period). Results also showed that it was generally men who were rated as a high level of dynamic risk that were reconvicted for a sexual offence (13% versus 5% over a 2-year period; 44% versus 10% over a 5-year period). The study also indicated the benefits of residential treatment for such High risk/High Deviance men in that no men who left the programme having responded to treatment had been reconvicted for sexual offences at either follow-up period.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

Dynamic risk factors: a theoretical dead-end?

While the quality of empirical research on risk predication, assessment and management in the sexual offending field has been of a high standard, relatively little attention has been paid to theoretical issues related to risk and its conceptualisation. In this paper, we develop alternative ways of understanding dynamic risk factors and their utility in theory construction and case formulation. We would stress that this work is of a preliminary nature but believe that it is crucial that standard clinical and research practices are critically challenged from time to time, and their underlying theoretical assumptions evaluated. Our aim is to encourage researchers and practitioners to look at the issue of dynamic risk factors from a different viewpoint; one that we hope can help move the sex offender field forward.     

Forensic Psychology: A Guide to Practice

Abstract

G. H. Gudjonsson and L. R. C. Haward, Forensic Psychology: A Guide to Practice. London. Routledge, 1998.     

Developing a theory of dynamic risk

ABSTRACT

The Propensities Model is now the dominant applied conceptualization of dynamic risk factors for sexual offending. In this paper five important limitations of this model are identified: it asserts causality but does not explain it; it does not represent human agency; it offers no account of what is involved in the development of propensities; it does not explain stable change in risk; and its account of the operation of static factors is a theoretical leap not supported by the evidence. A more elaborate theoretical framework is developed by integrating ideas from Ward's Good Lives model, Beck's account of schema modes, and Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action. This more elaborate framework incorporates the Propensities Model in a way that mitigates its limitations. Implications for research, assessment, and rehabilitation are explored.     

Revisiting the use of pornography by sexual offenders: Implications for theory and practice

Abstract

Summary: This article examines the extant research on the use of pornography by sexual offenders and some of the debates engendered by such use. The analyses should assist in clarifying a number of issues of concern for all who work in the field of sexual offending.     

Problems in the measurement of dynamic risk factors in sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

Having valid and reliable tools to measure ‘dynamic’ risk factors and minimising assessor bias is said to be critical in helping to make decisions regarding how individuals convicted of committing crime should be managed and treated, and how resources within the Justice System should be prioritised. This article outlines the problems and issues associated with the measurement of such putative dynamic risk factors (see Ward, 2015 Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law, 22(01-02), 2–16. [Google Scholar] [Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law.], 22(1–2), 2–16], this volume for a critique of current conceptions of these), and suggests ways of ensuring that measurement is conducted in the most appropriate way for the population being dealt with. Specifically, we would note that the evidence suggests that psychometric analysis, and structured professional judgment can be used to measure dynamic psychological problems using some tools within some samples. However, their use can be hindered by a number of conceptual factors including how the tests are designed and used, their reliability and validity, the context in which they are used, and the samples used. Finally, we would note that interviews are also an important part in the process of dynamic assessment.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Self-serving aspects of social cognition among adult offenders

Abstract

The different cognitive beliefs about offending exhibited by offenders are discussed. The question addressed in this paper concerns the extent to which beliefs and social knowledge about offending differentiate between different characteristic types of offending (drug abuse, theft, sexual and violent). Two hundred and ninety adult male prisoners in four Taiwanese prisons provided self-reported criminal histories. From these a crime index indicative of the proportion of offences of each type (or specialism in offending) was calculated for each offender. Offenders legitimize their own offending while they tend to regard the offences of others negatively. In this way, cognitive representations may reinforce an offender's specific pattern of criminal acts while also insulating them from pressures towards other criminal activities. Evidence is presented that offenders' social knowledge development is consolidated around crime themes.     

Sexually violent predators and civil commitment: is selection evidence based?

Sexual offenses represent an alarming proportion of crimes committed yearly. To address these concerns, several states, including South Carolina (SC), have enacted laws requiring sexually violent predators (SVPs) to be civilly committed to treatment. To date, no published study has examined sexual offenders recommended for treatment in SC. This study used a specially designed statewide database (SC-SVP research database) to determine which offender and offense characteristics were associated with increased likelihood of being recommended for civil commitment. Factors correlated with being more likely to be recommended included: being of a younger age at time of evaluation, prior sex convictions, having related and unrelated victims, a higher number of victims, frequent substance use, and a history of suicide attempts. Prior sex convictions, having both related and non-related victims, and a higher total number of victims align with characteristics associated with sexual recidivism. Frequent substance abuse and a history of suicide attempts do not mirror previous findings regarding sexual recidivism. These findings present new information regarding the civil commitment process of offenders being committed to the SC-SVP treatment program, characterize types of offenders committed to SC-SVP treatment program, and provide a foundation for using a computerized database in conducting sex offender research.