Hydropolitics: challenging the water-war thesis

Mostafa Dolatyar is Assistant Director at the Department of Border Affairs, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and a senior consultant in the field of international relations. For the past few years he has focused on the environment of the Middle East.     

The hybrid role of the High Representative in the security and defence field: more in 10 months than in the 10 years?

ABSTRACT

Despite a growing “momentum” on European Union (EU) security and defence, there are no academic analyses that aim to systematically assess the role of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission (HR/VP) in these strategic domains. This is surprising given that the HR/VP is one of the central actors in the complex institutional architecture of EU security and defence. To fill this gap in the scholarly literature and to contribute to a more fine-grained analysis of the two post-Lisbon Treaty HR/VPs, the article assesses Ashton and Mogherini’s mandates in these fields. This study is particularly relevant because the HR/VP’s hybrid institutional role may represent a unique analytical angle to investigate a formally intergovernmental sector, strongly shaped also by EU institutions’ authority over defence-industrial policy. Following these considerations, the article looks at how the two HR/VPs managed to navigate both the military and the defence-industrial dimensions of EU security and defence.     

From “partnership” to “principled pragmatism”: tracing the discursive practices of the High Representatives in the EU’s relations with the Southern Mediterranean

ABSTRACT

The EU’s relations with countries in the Southern Mediterranean have a long history as the region is of great strategic importance for the Union and its member states. The High Representatives of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy have been highly involved in shaping these relations, and this role has been officially strengthened with institutional changes brought about with the Lisbon Treaty. This article analyses the role of the HR/VPs in shaping the EU's foreign and security policy towards the region with an analytical focus on discursive practice. Drawing on insights from practice theory in IR and EU studies, the analysis traces continuity and change in how the Southern Mediterranean is described in the drafting of key strategic documents. The main finding is that EU foreign and security policy towards the Southern Mediterranean shows a high degree of continuity despite several crises and institutional changes, although the discursive practices have evolved. The article ends by highlighting a conundrum that the EU can be said to implicitly acknowledge: if authoritarian states in the Southern Mediterranean are inherently unstable, yet stable enough to quench the democratic aspirations of their people, then what should be the basis for EU actions?     

A Review of: “Andrew F. Krepinevich. 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century.”

J. Bowyer Bell, IRA Tactics and Targets: An Analysis of Tactical Aspects of the Armed Struggle 1969–1989. Swords, Co. Dublin, Ireland: Poolbeg Press Ltd, 1990. Pp.117. $11.95. ISBN 1–85371–086–5

David A. Charters and Maurice Tugwell (eds.), Armies in Low‐Intensity Conflict: A Comparative Analysis. London: Brassey's (UK) Ltd, 1989. Pp.272, 5 maps. ISBN 0–08–036253–2

Rod Paschall, LIC 2010: Special Operations and Unconventional Warfare in the Next Century. New York: Brassey's (US), Inc., 1990. Pp.x + 166 select biblio., index. ISBN 0–08–035982–5

Austrian Foreign Policy Yearbook: Report of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs for the year 1990. Distributed by Verlag Manz, Kohlmarkt 16, A‐1014 Vienna. 187 Austrian schillings. ISBN 3–214–08261–2

Oliver Peter St. John, Air Piracy, Airport Security, and International Terrorism: Winning the War Against Hijackers. New York, Westport, CT, London: Quorum Books (Aerospace Management Law Series), 1991. Pp.296. $49.95. ISBN 0–89930–413–3     

The post-Lisbon high representatives: an introduction

ABSTRACT

The Lisbon Treaty recently celebrated its 10th anniversary. The 2009 legal text was an attempt to enhance the unity, consistency and effectiveness of the EU’s action in an increasingly volatile world. And yet, the post-Lisbon time period has been characterised by multiple crises coming from the West, the East, the South, and even from within the EU. Against this backdrop, our Special Issue makes a systematic assessment of the EU's foreign policy post-Lisbon and of its evolution by focusing on the role of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR/VP). Assessing the post-Lisbon HR/VPs provides important insights on EU foreign policy processes over the past decade. In this introduction, we discuss the three research questions that guide our collection of articles, as well as our theoretical and empirical contribution to existing scholarly literature.     

‘Local is lekker’: Nation,narration and the sABC's Afrikaans programmes

Abstract

This article provides an exploration of the role of the SABC's Afrikaans language programmes in contemporary South African constructions of national identity. It examines the programmes’ engagement with the construction of (a) national identity by addressing the SABC's mandated obligation towards nation building, and exploring how the broadcaster's Afrikaans programmes are positioned in this regard. The article suggests that the SABC's task to ‘narrate the nation’ is complicated not only by the theoretical dilemmas faced by the terms ‘nation’ and ‘nation building’, but also by the broadcaster's historical ties to the apartheid government. This matter is further complicated for the Afrikaans-language programmes on SABC, given the language's binary position as both ‘unifier’ and ‘oppressor’.     

Managing conflict in divided societies: Lessons from Tajikistan

This article presents a new approach to managing conflict in divided societies and describes how it is being implemented in Tajikistan. This approach involves two interrelated strategies: (1) a five-stage unofficial dialogue process aimed at probing the dynamics of the conflictual relationships among the parties and designing a sequence of interactive steps to changing the relationships; and (2) a civil society strategy aimed at building institutions of civil society that transcend the traditional divisions in the society. Randa M. Slim is a program officer in charge of the international civil society programs at the Kettering Foundation, 200 Commons Road, Dayton, Ohio 45459.Harold H. Saunders, former member of the National Security Council Staff and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, is Director of International Affairs at the Kettering Foundation, 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20001. They co-direct the Tajikistani dialogue program.     

The European External Action Service,Counterterrorism and the Imperative of Coherence

ABSTRACT

The European External Action Service (EEAS), specifically mandated with enhancing coherence between the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and non-CFSP bodies on the one hand, and the European Union and member states on the other hand, has the potential to increase CFSP’s contribution to the fight against terrorism and diminish the boundaries between CFSP and other policies. Several of the EEAS’ cooperation and coordination duties, as well as the inclusive composition of the Service, allow for a more coherent approach to counterterrorism policymaking. In practice, coherence is unfolding in diplomatic cooperation with third countries and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions, as CFSP and Justice and Home Affairs actors seem to build on one another’s strengths. The picture is more nuanced in the area of intelligence, where the activities of the EU intelligence centre, transferred from the Council of the European Union to the EEAS, are conditional upon member states’ willingness to exchange information. Ultimately, current efforts towards coherence remain subject to a somewhat paradoxical two-speed process: one that encourages the meshing together of institutional actors and policy cultures, while deferring access to justice to national law, thereby yielding a system of protection of individuals à géométrie variable.     

Redefining the roles of environmental NGOs in Africa

The article summarises issues identified in a study undertaken on behalf of the HIVOS Foundation of the Netherlands and the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs Development Division, which included a field study of 45 environmental NGOs in seven African countries. This generated an institutional database to support the aid strategies of the agencies commissioning the research, and forms the basis of an analysis of some of the broader issues concerning the role and behaviour of various types of NGO.     

Mapping Today's Jihadi Landscape and Threat

This article examines the current state of the global jihad movement and offers reflections on its likely trajectory in the foreseeable future. It concludes that while the global jihad temporarily has been set back by the relative decline of the Islamic State, the movement overall benefits from al-Qaeda's regeneration; its ongoing ideological appeal; and its structural decentralization. In the next years, the movement likely will continue to evolve from its current bipolar structure toward an increasingly multipolar entity. Furthermore, it argues that the future jihadi movement will contain a large number of jihadi actors whose relationships will span cooperative, competitive, or mixed engagements, with implications for the movement as a whole. The article highlights several challenges for counterterrorism, including dealing with a complex movement structure; radicalization; socio-political disenfranchisement; the counter-response of societies targeted by jihadist violence; and technological changes. The article concludes with an assessment that in the next two to five years, the global jihad will remain a potent, although not an existential, threat.This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

Non-normative political extremism: Reclaiming a concept’s analytical utility

ABSTRACT

Political extremism suffers from a definitional deficiency. This article proposes an analytical definition of the term, which avoids using extremism in a pejorative way. This definition also avoids exclusive focus on violence. This definition encourages the analyst to explicitly make the case for defining an action or an actor as extremist by comparing the action or actor to its political context. The article then explores several dimensions of an extremist political identity that can help observers understand extremist behavior and goals. It uses this conceptual framework to consider three examples of political extremism. Finally, the article concludes with some limitations and strengths of this definition of political extremism.     

Regional security cooperation reinvented: Western Balkans counterterrorism initiative

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the Western Balkans Counterterrorism Initiative (WBCTi), originally a Slovenian proposal of late 2014, represents an efficient form of regional security cooperation, particularly when regional EU integration is considered. The Initiative that was accepted by the Justice and Home Affairs Council of the EU in late 2015 is the first of its kind. It is aimed at both incorporating and integrating all forms of international assistance that concern increasing the capacity to prevent and combat terrorism, violent extremism, and radicalisation leading to terrorism. Additionally, it is directed at decreasing duplication of actions by international actors and raising levels of efficiency of security cooperation and reform. This article analyses the Initiative by focusing on its structure and claiming that its specific framework represents an innovative approach establishing a fully functional regional structure outlining EU-Western Balkans security cooperation.     

Foreign Policy Analysis and the study of Indian foreign policy: a pathway for theoretical innovation?

ABSTRACT

This article proposes that the study of Indian foreign policy and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) offers a “win-win situation” for scholarship. On the one hand, this bridge-building exercise leads to a better understanding of the making and substance of Indian foreign policy. On the other hand, it advances FPA in both theoretical and empirical terms, thus contributing to overcoming FPA’s US/Western bias and to decentering the field more generally. Framing the argument in terms of levels of analysis, we offer specific contributions to the understanding of foreign policy in areas such as leadership traits, poliheuristic theory, coalition politics, and state-society influences. Moreover, this line of research suggests the contours of a new comparative foreign policy agenda which could emerge from this examination of Indian foreign policy.     

Diasporas as ‘agents of development’: transforming brain drain into brain gain? The Dutch example

This article is based on research that explored and analysed the potential role of diasporas in development aid in the Netherlands. The research adopted the hypothesis that development agencies could benefit from the knowledge, skills, and views of diasporas as ‘agents of development’ and thereby make aid more effective and sustainable. Data were derived from semi-structured interviews with representatives of diasporas residing in the Netherlands; Dutch NGOs selected by the Dutch government for their capacity-building programmes; official donors, namely the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken); and international organisations, such as the International Organization of Migration (IOM). Secondary data were derived from a literature review.     

Cautious Surfers: The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Negotiates the Wave of the Information Age

Due to the ongoing information revolution, diplomats find themselves in an increasingly competitive information-intensive environment where they have to prove that they still are relevant and needed. The article explores this general development by detailing how the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has related to the technological challenge. Drawing on personal interviews with MFA staff, study of MFA documents including reports from Norwegian embassies and delegations, as well as participant observation, reasons for the relative tardiness and path-dependence in implementing IT-supported organizational change at the MFA are explored.     

Cautious Surfers: The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Negotiates the Wave of the Information Age

Due to the ongoing information revolution, diplomats find themselves in an increasingly competitive information-intensive environment where they have to prove that they still are relevant and needed. The article explores this general development by detailing how the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has related to the technological challenge. Drawing on personal interviews with MFA staff, study of MFA documents including reports from Norwegian embassies and delegations, as well as participant observation, reasons for the relative tardiness and path-dependence in implementing IT-supported organizational change at the MFA are explored.     

The EU as a Global Actor? EU Policy Towards Iran

Abstract

This paper explores EU policy towards Iran to challenge the common implicit or explicit notion that the EU's ‘actorness’ in the international system rests primarily, or solely, on its Pillar I external relations. Utilising criteria developed to examine the ‘actorness’ of the EU, the article explores this policy area to demonstrate that the EU's ‘actorness’ resulted not only from the ‘Community’ aspects of foreign policy, but also from its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).     

Assessing the Future Threat: ISIS's Virtual Caliphate

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's (ISIS) Virtual Caliphate shows no signs of diminishment. With the group's loss of territory and with social media platforms increasingly policed, Telegram, a messaging application, remains ISIS's key platform for disseminating propaganda and recruiting new members. Telegram's security features, cross-platform construction, and secret chat option offer a secure environment for interaction between ISIS and its supporters. On Telegram, ISIS manipulates an environment rich with addictive properties, creating online spaces that encourage group identity, shared opinions, and dominant ideologies, while exploiting an individual's need to be a part of the group. This research investigates how Telegram is used by ISIS and its supporters and assesses what kind of threat the use of Telegram poses for the future.The research is supported in part by the Office of Naval Research “Documenting the Virtual Caliphate” #N00014-16-1-3174. All opinions are exclusively those of the authors and do not represent the Department of Defense or the Navy. This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

EU–Russia Security Relations and the Survey of Russian Federation Foreign Policy: One Year On

Abstract

The Kremlin's change of leadership on 7 May 2008 and growing international fears of Russia's resurgence, especially in the aftermath of the Georgian conflict, make this an interesting time to reflect upon EU–Russia security relations. This article does so by examining closely the Survey of Russian Federation Foreign Policy and, one year on from its approval, drawing upon subsequent developments as preliminary corollary or otherwise of its bearing on policy. On balance, it seems that the Kremlin's evolving perception of Russia and international relations has encouraged revised priorities and objectives and a more forceful foreign policy that not only slow progress in filling the Common Spaces, but also increase the likelihood of Russia–EU competition especially in their shared neighbourhood.