Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

Dynamic risk and violence in individuals with an intellectual disability: tool development and initial validation

Without a violence risk assessment designed for people with an intellectual disability (ID), assessors are reliant upon tools developed for mainstream offenders or develop their own tools. This study describes the early stages of development of the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV), an informant-reported measure of dynamic risk for aggression in adults with an ID. The pool of items was generated from a multitude of sources. Predictive accuracy for aggression was tested prospectively among 64 adults with an ID and history of aggression. The 34-item CuRV was found to be a brief, uncomplicated risk assessment. Initial findings revealed good predictive validity over a five-month period: area under the curve (AUC) range from .72, 95% CI [.59, .85] to .77, 95% CI [.66, .89]. These preliminary findings suggest that the CuRV may assist staff to perform assessments of risk in busy clinical settings. Future research effort is needed to fully explore the psychometric properties of the CuRV.     

Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors

ABSTRACT

The inclusion of dynamic factors in risk assessment measures used with forensic populations has largely been considered an improvement in both the accuracy and utility of these assessments in informing treatment and sentencing. However, there are important challenges associated with the current approach to the conceptualisation, identification, and use of dynamic factors in risk assessment. Whereas some of these challenges relate to applied settings (such as the use of measures with different offender populations), there are also deeper questions regarding the construct validity of dynamic risk measures and the methodological strategies used to identify them. More emphasis on theoretically driven research is needed, to identify causal and explanatory relationships between dynamic risk factors and recidivism. We hope that highlighting these challenges can help to build a consensus on a future research agenda for dynamic risk factors.     

Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Risk of harm: inmates who harm themselves while in prison psychiatric treatment

In this study, 242 randomly selected male offenders who were receiving psychiatric treatment in prison were administered psychological and neuropsychological evaluations and were followed during their treatment in a prison psychiatric hospital. Offenders who harmed themselves in treatment were compared to those who did not harm themselves. Eighteen percent of offenders harmed themselves, the severity of which required medical intervention. Young age, drug abuse, absence of Axis I mental disorder but presence of Axis II borderline personality disorder identified offenders who harmed themselves. Psychopathy checklist-revised (PCL-R) total rating > or = 30 and PCL-R Factor 2 (antisocial lifestyle) rating also identified offenders who harmed themselves. Additionally, offenders who harmed themselves also were 8.36 times more likely than their cohorts to harm treatment staff. Theoretical understanding of offenders who harm themselves, the importance of considering the environmental context in identifying risk factors for self-harm, and implications for treatment are suggested.     

Suicide behind bars: trends, inconsistencies, and practical implications

The results of two comprehensive approaches are compared: the nationwide surveys of suicides in U.S. jails by Hayes and the international meta-analyses of suicides in jails and prisons by Fazel et al. Factors are classified as demographic, situational, clinical, and methodical. More than 50% of U.S. jail suicide victims were men, white, unmarried, under 28 years of age, charged with minor or drug-related offenses, and intoxicated with drugs or alcohol. Suicides significantly occurred in isolation. Suicide victims in the international study were significantly (p < 0.001) men, white, married, pretrial, and charged with or convicted of violent offenses. Psychiatric diagnosis, alcohol abuse, taking psychotropic medication, and suicidal ideation were also positively correlated in the international study, but suicide victims were distributed more evenly over age-groups. Results of other studies illustrate the near universality of some findings. Three theories of suicide are briefly discussed.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

The Effects of Changes in Dynamic Risk on Reoffending among Serious Juvenile Offenders Returning from Residential Placement

This study examines whether changes in dynamic risk during juvenile justice long-term residential placement affect recidivism. Advancing the work of prior dynamic risk change analyses, we examine a large sample of 11,891 male and 1930 female juvenile offenders while taking methodological steps to ensure successful and non-successful youth (in terms of recidivism) are (statistically) identical at admission. Specifically, we employ propensity score matching on residential placement youth who recidivate post-release and non-recidivists on static risk factors and initial dynamic risk scores assessed at admission to residential placement. Post-matching, changes in dynamic risk factors from initial assessment at admission to exit assessment at release are examined with a focus on whether those changes distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. Separate analyses are conducted for male and female juveniles. Results indicate that changes in dynamic risk do affect recidivism likelihood, but that different factors matter for males and females. These sex-specific models allow for distinct policy recommendations.     

Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample

If clinicians in forensic psychiatry want to reduce risk of reoffending in their patients, they require insight into dynamic risk factors, and evidence that these add predictive power to static risk indicators. Predictors need to be evaluated under clinically realistic circumstances. This study aimed to validate dynamic and static variables as predictors of reconviction in a naturalistic outcome study. Data on static and dynamic risk factors were collected for 151 patients discharged from Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Community follow-up was prospective, with a 5.5 year minimum. A prediction model was developed using Cox regression analysis. The magnitude of the predictive power of this model was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The final prediction model contained four static and no dynamic predictors. The model's ROC area under the curve was .79 (95% CI .69–.89). Clinical risk ratings were non-predictive. Post hoc analyses exploring the influence of subgroups of patients did not yield better models. It is concluded that a small set of static predictors yielded a good estimate of future reconvictions; inclusion of dynamic predictors did not add predictive power.     

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Characteristics and offences of women with borderline personality disorder in forensic psychiatry: a multicentre study

Although female forensic patients diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD) are generally considered taxing in clinical practice, little is known about their specific characteristics or offences. In this study, 156 female forensic psychiatric patients diagnosed with BPD were compared to 113 diagnosed otherwise. Information on demographic and psychiatric characteristics, victimization, index offences, and incidents during treatment was gathered from patient files. Risk factors for recidivism were assessed using the PCL-R and historical items of the HCR-20, including items from the new Female Additional Manual (FAM). Compared to non-BPD women, BPD women were more likely to have been abused as children and to have a history of outpatient treatment. While less likely to be convicted for (attempted) homicide, a higher percentage of BPD women was convicted for arson. Comorbid substance abuse was more frequent in the BPD group and incidents towards others and themselves were more violent in nature. The PCL-R and the H-scale of the HCR-20/FAM indicated several risk factors especially important for BPD women, such as poor behavioural control, impulsivity, and irresponsibility. The results support the clinical impression that women diagnosed with BPD are a subgroup within the female forensic psychiatric population, with specific focus points for treatment and management.     

Desistance and dynamic risk factors belong together

ABSTRACT

Depending on definitions, dynamic risk factors and desistance are either highly intertwined or aligned with distinctly separate paradigms. This paper describes and critiques each concept, and then reviews research on how they may be linked, including some preliminary findings from a longitudinal study of the early phases of desistance in high-risk offenders. I argue that seeking to understand how reductions in dynamic risk work together with the development of the psychological components of desistance will shed the most light on how offenders move from persistence to the maintenance of desistance.     

Child Sexual Abuse Perpetrated by Women: Case Series and Review of the Literature

The literature on child sexual abuse (CSA) perpetrated by female sexual offenders (FSOs) is exiguous, and many studies have focused on judicial databases. The present retrospective study, instead, analyzed clinical and judicial data of a group of both victims and alleged FSOs, to additionally include women who have not been convicted by the criminal justice system, but who hold strong clinical suspicions of being perpetrators of CSA. The medical records and the Court files of 11 children and their eight suspected FSOs have been collected and critically reviewed in light of the literature to date. This approach allowed for a deeper understanding of the relationship between child and FSO. The authors hypothesize that the victims’ severe psychopathological outcomes were a result of a failure to develop appropriate attachments with their prospective caregivers, which could have been damaged by the pathological relationship with FSOs, who were the victims’ caregivers.     

Not just welfare over justice: Ethics in forensic consultation

The ethics of forensic professionalism is often couched in terms of competing individual and societal values. Indeed, the welfare of individuals is often secondary to the requirements of society, especially given the public nature of courts of law, forensic hospitals, jails, and prisons. We explore the weaknesses of this dichotomous approach to forensic ethics, offering an analysis of Psychology's historical narrative especially relevant to the national security and correctional settings. We contend that a richer, more robust ethical analysis is available if practitioners consider the multiple perspectives in the forensic encounter, and acknowledge the multiple influences of personal, professional, and social values. The setting, context, or role is not sufficient to determine the ethics of forensic practice.     

Prediction of institutional aggression among personality disordered forensic patients using actuarial and structured clinical risk assessment tools: prospective evaluation of the HCR-20, VRS,Static-99, and Risk Matrix 2000

A minority of men and women with intellectual disabilities at times engage in, and are suspected, or convicted, of illegal activity. Recent policy developments in England and Wales emphasise the need to respond appropriately to putative offending risk through the provision of safe and effective community management, treatment, and support services. In line with these concerns, research has focused increasingly on testing the utility of an evolving variety of risk assessment procedures. Here, the authors set out to challenge the repertoire of a number of prominent and/or recently developed risk assessment procedures and the scope of an associated research literature, on the basis that contextual risk factors are receiving insufficient attention in relation to offending among people with intellectual disabilities. Drawing on the wider criminological literature, a novel study is reported that compares key contemporary proximal social and environmental circumstances in the lives of offenders and non-offenders with intellectual disabilities. A contextual risk score is derived, providing statistical support for increased consideration of the impact of relevant social and environmental circumstances. Increased emphasis on key contextual risk factors is recommended to strengthen community service responses to offenders with intellectual disabilities.     

Popping the cultural bubble of violence risk assessment tools

Violence risk instruments are administered in medico-legal contexts to estimate an individual’s likelihood of future violence. However, their ostensible limitations; in particular their mono-cultural and risk-centric composition, has drawn academic attention. These concerns may facilitate erroneous risk evaluations for certain non-white populations. Yet it remains unaddressed how cultural differences will be appraised in a risk assessment framework and which specific cultural factors should be considered. Provisions under the Canadian Criminal Code allow for Gladue Reports, to be sought by judicial officers prior to sentencing Indigenous people. Gladue Reports provide insights into an Indigenous person’s unique circumstances that may have led to their offending as well as community-based options for rehabilitation. We proffer that there may be value in augmenting the risk evaluation with culturally relevant Gladue style considerations identified by relevant Indigenous people to provide a more holistic account of an Indigenous individual’s circumstances.