Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

From dynamic risk factors to causal processes: a methodological framework

ABSTRACT

It is becoming increasingly apparent that dynamic risk factors are unable to function as explanations of offending because they are composite constructs, which contain a mixture of putative causes, states of affairs, and problematic cognitive, affective, behavioural and social states associated with crime. In this paper we draw from psychopathology research and theory on the conception and classification of mental disorders to develop the Dynamic Risk Research Framework (DRRF). In our opinion, the assumptions and methodological tool associated with this framework can better focus research into the causes of offending by making use of the information provided by dynamic risk factors. A conceptual framework such as the DRRF can arguably translate this valuable information into deep, coherent explanations, and ultimately, more streamlined and precise intervention strategies.     

Developing a theory of dynamic risk

ABSTRACT

The Propensities Model is now the dominant applied conceptualization of dynamic risk factors for sexual offending. In this paper five important limitations of this model are identified: it asserts causality but does not explain it; it does not represent human agency; it offers no account of what is involved in the development of propensities; it does not explain stable change in risk; and its account of the operation of static factors is a theoretical leap not supported by the evidence. A more elaborate theoretical framework is developed by integrating ideas from Ward's Good Lives model, Beck's account of schema modes, and Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action. This more elaborate framework incorporates the Propensities Model in a way that mitigates its limitations. Implications for research, assessment, and rehabilitation are explored.     

Forensic occupational therapy to reduce risk of reoffending: a survey of practice in the United Kingdom

Forensic services are required to reduce an individual’s risk of reoffending. Despite being integral to forensic mental health services, the contribution of forensic occupational therapy to achieving this aim is unclear. This study describes current forensic occupational therapy practice to reduce reoffending risk in the United Kingdom. Responses to a cross-sectional survey consisting of multiple choice and free-text questions were analysed using frequency counts and percentages, and thematic analysis respectively. Of the 58 participants, 83% actively addressed reoffending risk. Participants informed practice with occupation-focused theories, models and assessment tools. Five themes described forensic occupational therapy to reduce reoffending risk: an occupational perspective of risk assessment and formulation; volitional realignment; increasing protective factors; community integration; and enhancing understanding of forensic occupational therapy. Forensic occupational therapists perceive their practice to contribute to reducing reoffending risk, but are yet to establish routine outcome measurement in this area. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

Biological protective factors of criminal offending: implications for risk assessment research and practice

Despite the recognition of the practical and theoretical contributions of protective factors in risk assessment practice, the field has granted significant attention to psychosocial protective factors to the apparent neglect of biological protective factors. This review found a wealth of evidence which strongly and convincingly indicates that biological factors such as high intelligent quotient, executive functioning, skin conductance, and resting heart rate offer protection against criminal and antisocial behaviors. More importantly, the literature is supportive of the view that both risk and protective factors co-occur in the same variables, thus questioning the practice of classifying a set of variables as strictly risk or protective. Specifically, the risk–protective effect is contingent upon individual’s rating as high or low on the factor in question. It is recommended that researchers, academicians, and practitioners strive in their efforts to canvass other salient factors beyond the psychosocial factors as these factors can significantly and positively impact the risk assessment field, both theoretically and practically.     

Problems in the measurement of dynamic risk factors in sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

Having valid and reliable tools to measure ‘dynamic’ risk factors and minimising assessor bias is said to be critical in helping to make decisions regarding how individuals convicted of committing crime should be managed and treated, and how resources within the Justice System should be prioritised. This article outlines the problems and issues associated with the measurement of such putative dynamic risk factors (see Ward, 2015 Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law, 22(01-02), 2–16. [Google Scholar] [Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law.], 22(1–2), 2–16], this volume for a critique of current conceptions of these), and suggests ways of ensuring that measurement is conducted in the most appropriate way for the population being dealt with. Specifically, we would note that the evidence suggests that psychometric analysis, and structured professional judgment can be used to measure dynamic psychological problems using some tools within some samples. However, their use can be hindered by a number of conceptual factors including how the tests are designed and used, their reliability and validity, the context in which they are used, and the samples used. Finally, we would note that interviews are also an important part in the process of dynamic assessment.     

Dynamic risk factors: scientific kinds or predictive constructs

ABSTRACT

There are a number of theoretical problems evident in the concept of dynamic risk factors that arise from their (increasing) importation into the explanatory and treatment domains of forensic and correctional practice. More specifically: (a) the concept of dynamic risk factors has not been well defined; (b) relatedly, there is a lack of clarity whether dynamic risk factors refer to causal processes or are predictive constructs; and finally (c) because of the above problems no one is sure how best to integrate them into clinical assessment and treatment. I will examine each of these three conceptual problems in this paper and make some suggestions about how to utilise dynamic risk factors in explanations of offending.     

The impact of timing and frequency of parental criminal behaviour and risk factors on offspring offending

This paper explores mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of criminal behaviour by investigating specifically the timing and frequency of the parents' criminal behaviour while including risk factors for criminal behaviour. The results demonstrate a dose–response relationship: parents' number of criminal convictions is positively related to offspring's conviction rate. Furthermore, children whose parents had only been convicted before the child's birth have more convictions than those whose parents had never been convicted. Children whose parents had been convicted after the child's birth have more convictions than those whose parents had only been convicted before the child's birth, but this difference can be explained partly by the observation that the latter group had fewer risk factors for crime. When parental convictions at different ages were examined, children whose parents had been convicted between their 7th and 13th birthdays exhibit more criminal behaviour than children whose parents were convicted in other periods, but none of the differences were significant. There does not appear to be a sensitive period for the impact of parental criminal behaviour. The results demonstrate support for static as well as dynamic explanations of intergenerational transmission such as the transmission of a criminogenic environment and/or mediation through risk factors.     

Intensive psychological treatment of high-risk violent offenders: Outcomes and pre-release mechanisms

Research on correlates of intervention programmes that reduce expected reconviction rates (‘what works’ literature, Risk–Need–Responsivity model) has been highly influential in criminal justice systems throughout much of the western world. But while this psychological research has been acquiring widespread recognition, a deeper understanding of how programmes work and of mechanisms for desistance more generally, has still to develop. This research reports results of a quasi-experimental recidivism outcome study for a series of prison units that provide intensive psychological treatment to high-risk, persistently violent prisoners. Four outcomes were examined over the first 12 months following release on parole: parole violations, new convictions, new convictions for violence, and imprisonment sentences resulting from new convictions. Alongside these results, we conducted preliminary analyses of two potential pre-release mechanisms for surviving the first 12 months on parole without reconviction: lower dynamic risk for violence, and greater release readiness. We found that dynamic violence risk fully accounted for differences between treatment completers and comparison prisoners in proportions reconvicted for violence. However, in all other cases, the proposed mechanisms did not significantly explain treatment-related differences. We close by considering possible explanations for these unexpected results, and reiterating the importance to our field of more sophisticated treatment outcome research.     

Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Understanding dynamic risk factors for violence

ABSTRACT

Recent years have seen a consensus emerge regarding the dynamic risk factors that are associated with future violence. These risk factors are now routinely assessed in structured violence risk assessment instruments. They provide a focus for treatment in structured group programmes. However, relatively little attention has been paid to risk-related theoretical issues, whether these dynamic risk factors are causally related or simply correlates of violent offending, or the extent to which they change as a consequence of treatment. More challenging is the lack of evidence to suggest that changes in these dynamic risk factors actually result in reductions in violent offending. In this paper we consider the meaning of the term dynamic risk, arguing that only those factors that, when changed, reduce the likelihood of violent recidivism, can be considered to be truly dynamic. We conclude that few of the violence risk factors commonly regarded as dynamic fulfil this requirement. There is a need to think more critically about assessment findings and treatment recommendations relating to dynamic risk, and conduct research that establishes, rather than assumes, that certain dynamic risk factors are directly related to violence. Some suggestions for advancing knowledge and practice are provided.     

Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors

ABSTRACT

The inclusion of dynamic factors in risk assessment measures used with forensic populations has largely been considered an improvement in both the accuracy and utility of these assessments in informing treatment and sentencing. However, there are important challenges associated with the current approach to the conceptualisation, identification, and use of dynamic factors in risk assessment. Whereas some of these challenges relate to applied settings (such as the use of measures with different offender populations), there are also deeper questions regarding the construct validity of dynamic risk measures and the methodological strategies used to identify them. More emphasis on theoretically driven research is needed, to identify causal and explanatory relationships between dynamic risk factors and recidivism. We hope that highlighting these challenges can help to build a consensus on a future research agenda for dynamic risk factors.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

A cognitive-based indicator of deviant sexual interest: Concurrent validation of the Stroop task

ABSTRACT

One of the strongest predictors of sexual recidivism is sexual deviance [Hanson, R. K., & Bussière, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348–362. doi:10.1037/0022-006X.66.2.348]. Phallometric testing, the most commonly used method of assessing sexual deviance, has elicited methodological and ethical criticisms, while self-report is vulnerable to social desirability and poor insight. To overcome these limitations, researchers have utilised cognitive measures, including a modified Stroop task, to measure deviant sexual interests among sex offenders using victim selection as a comparison measure. However, the results have been inconclusive. The current study explored the validity of the modified Stroop task as a measure of deviant sexual interest among a non-offending sample of 570 females and 223 male participants, using self-report as the comparison measure. The results indicated a significant gender difference in concurrent validity; there was a significant relationship between self-reported deviance and deviant word Stroop performance for male but not for female respondents, suggesting the Stroop is a viable option for assessing sexual deviance among males. Implications of these findings are discussed relative to sexual recidivism risk assessment.     

Social psychological risk factors,delinquency and age of onset

Based on data from the 2014 Communities that Care Youth Survey (CCYS), the authors examine the association between risk factors of tenth graders and age of onset (never, 14 or older, 13 or younger) of three antisocial behaviors/delinquency (got arrested; carried a handgun to school; and attacked someone with the intent of seriously hurting them). Risk factors are under four domains: family, community, school, and peer. The age of onset and risk literature are discussed. The purpose of this research is to examine what risk factors are associated with age of onset. Individual risk factors under the peer domain had the strongest association with all three antisocial behaviors.     

The predictive and convergent validity of a psychometric battery used to assess sexual offenders in a treatment programme: an 18-year follow-up

Abstract

This study examined sex offender risk and treatment change based on a battery of psychometric assessment measures administered to 267 treated adult Canadian federal sex offenders followed up an average 18 years post release. Several significant pre–post changes that were frequently moderate in magnitude (d>.50) were observed across these measures. A factor analysis of the psychometric battery generated three broad need domains consistent with the extant literature that were labelled Socioemotional Functioning, Anger/Hostility, and Misogynist Attitudes. The three need domains and a Need Total, created by their summation, converged with the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003) in conceptually meaningful ways and predicted sexual and violent recidivism to varying degrees. Raw measurements of change obtained from pre-to posttreatment frequently bore weak and non-significant relationships to outcome. However, after creating standardised residual change scores to control for pre-treatment score, treatment changes in the individual measures, need domains and Need Total improved significantly in their prediction of reductions in general and sexual violence.     

Review of the Literature on Risk and Protective Factors of Offending Among Native Americans

Abstract

The social and economic conditions faced by much of the Native American population, as well as the history and treatment of Native Americans in our society, create many risk factors for criminal offending. At the same time, however, the cultures, traditions, and spiritualities of Native American tribes likely provide unique protective factors against offending in light of these risks. While these issues, especially drug and alcohol abuse, have received considerable attention by a handful of scholars, the level of research on risk and protective factors of offending have not, although recent research and funding decisions are beginning to make this topic a priority. This paper provides a brief review of the literature on risk and protective factors among Native Americans, highlighting some of the major factors likely to receive the most research attention over the next several years.