Problems in the measurement of dynamic risk factors in sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

Having valid and reliable tools to measure ‘dynamic’ risk factors and minimising assessor bias is said to be critical in helping to make decisions regarding how individuals convicted of committing crime should be managed and treated, and how resources within the Justice System should be prioritised. This article outlines the problems and issues associated with the measurement of such putative dynamic risk factors (see Ward, 2015 Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law, 22(01-02), 2–16. [Google Scholar] [Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law.], 22(1–2), 2–16], this volume for a critique of current conceptions of these), and suggests ways of ensuring that measurement is conducted in the most appropriate way for the population being dealt with. Specifically, we would note that the evidence suggests that psychometric analysis, and structured professional judgment can be used to measure dynamic psychological problems using some tools within some samples. However, their use can be hindered by a number of conceptual factors including how the tests are designed and used, their reliability and validity, the context in which they are used, and the samples used. Finally, we would note that interviews are also an important part in the process of dynamic assessment.     

An investigation into the applicability of the Ward and Siegert Pathways Model of child sexual abuse with Internet offenders

Abstract

This study examined the applicability of the Ward and Siegert (Psychology, Crime & Law, 8, 319–351, 2002) Pathways Model of Sexual Offending to a sample of Internet offenders. The Pathways Model identifies five etiological pathways, each with primary psychological deficits that interact to create a vulnerability to sexual offending behavior. The applicability of this model was tested on a sample of 72 cases drawn from a community sample in England and Wales, via the analysis of primary and associated psychometric indicators of pathway membership. Sixty per cent of men in the sample were found to display dysfunctional psychological mechanisms (43 cases). Two pathways were found to be particularly prominent: the intimacy deficits pathway and the emotional dysregulation pathway. The implications for future treatment and the appropriateness of current treatment programs for this population are examined in the light of these findings.     

Multidimensional scaling and the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: a reply to Sturidsson et al.

Abstract

Sturidsson et al. (Psychology, Crime & Law, 12, 221–230, 2006) published an article on the replicability of early multidimensional scaling (MDS) behavioural research by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990). Sturidsson et al. were unable to find a ‘readily apparent, simple interpretation’ of their MDS solution and therefore suggested that the MDS approach may be flawed as a device for interpreting sexual assault. The current paper explains how the methods employed by Sturidsson et al. represent an incorrect use of MDS, specifically in their input of Jaccard similarity data into the MDS (ALSCAL) procedure in SPSS as opposed to the correct MDS (PROXSCAL) procedure. A comparative example is used to illustrate how adopting the ALSCAL procedure will result in an inverse MDS solution, where objects appearing closer together are more dissimilar, making interpretation of the MDS plot meaningless in this context. The current paper discusses this methodological flaw in greater depth and in the context of behavioural investigative research using MDS in general. It concludes with some general guidelines in utilizing the MDS procedure in SPSS specific to criminal profiling research.     

How well do dynamic needs predict recidivism? Implications for risk assessment and risk reduction

Purpose

The current study assessed the predictive validity of nine dynamic risk factors in two samples of justice-involved individuals (n = 24,972) to identify promising targets for correctional programming. The study also tested the incremental predictive validity of dynamic risk relative to static indicators of recidivism risk (i.e., criminal history, age and sex).

Methods

The study relied on bivariate correlations and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses to test the predictive and incremental validity of dynamic risk constructs measured by the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R).

Results

Study findings revealed that while several dynamic risk constructs were significantly related to recidivism (antisocial attitudes, antisocial peers, education/employment, and substance abuse) over a 36-month follow-up period, the inclusion of dynamic risk items on the LSI-R did little to improve the overall predictive validity of the instrument. Across both study samples, static criminal history risk emerged as the most robust predictor of recidivism.

Conclusions

The advantages of third and fourth generation risk-need assessment tools are noted for classification purposes, but the study findings imply that risk prediction is better served by static risk factors. Implications for risk assessment and offender case management are discussed.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

A re-examination of female child molesters’ implicit theories: evidence of female specificity?

Recent research by Beech, Parrett, Ward, and Fisher has suggested that Ward and Keenan's male-derived implicit theories represent a good theoretical fit for explaining female child molesters’ offence-supportive cognitions. This paper re-examines the applicability of Ward and Keenan's (1999) male-derived implicit theories for explaining the self-reported offence-supportive cognitions of 16 UK female child molesters. Using almost identical analytic methods to Beech et al., we show that it is indeed possible to code female child molesters’ offence-supportive cognitions under each of the five male-derived implicit theories proposed by Ward and Keenan. However, our results show that the content of female child molesters’ offence-supportive cognitions appears very different to that of male child molesters. Based on our findings, we discuss relevant treatment implications and offer a re-conceptualization of implicit theories for female child molesters using the sex-role stereotyping literature. We also propose that – unlike male child molesters – female child molesters are unlikely to hold generalized implicit theories that sexualize children.     

Evaluation of structured cognitive–behavioural treatment programmes in reducing criminal recidivism

This paper reports the outcome of a 17-month follow-up of structured, community-based, offence-focused, intervention programmes designed to reduce rates of re-conviction amongst adjudicated offenders under probation supervision. Three separate programmes were examined, all derived from a cognitive social learning model of risk factors for repeated involvement in crime. Using a quasi-experimental design, the study compared male offenders who had completed programmes (n = 215) with a non-completion group (n = 181), a group allocated to programmes but who had not commenced them (n = 339), and a control sample (n = 194) not allocated to the programmes. Outcome data analysis employed (a) an “intent to treat” between-group comparison, (b) “treatment received” methodology. In order to take account of selection bias, data were further analysed using instrumental variables and propensity scores; results suggested a possible treatment effect for moderate and higher-risk cases. Factors influencing different interpretations of these findings were considered.

Comparing the psychological characteristics of un-apprehended firesetters and non-firesetters living in the UK

Deliberate firesetting research predominantly focuses on apprehended populations. In contrast, this paper focuses on the prevalence and characteristics of un-apprehended firesetters living in the UK. Social media was utilized to recruit 232 participants for an online questionnaire. Two hundred and twenty-five people answered a question relating to deliberate firesetting. Forty participants (17.78%) indicated that they had ignited a deliberate fire and were classified as un-apprehended firesetters. Firesetting was most common in childhood and adolescence. Relative to non-firesetters, un-apprehended deliberate firesetters were more likely to report; a diagnoses of a psychiatric illness, a diagnosis of a behavioural problem, having been suspended from school, a history of suicide attempts, experimenting with fire before the age of 10 years old, and having a family member who also ignited a deliberate fire. Un-apprehended firesetters also scored significantly higher compared to non-firesetters on the Fire Setting Scale and the Fire Proclivity Scale [Gannon, T. A., & Barrowcliffe, E. R. (2012). Firesetting in the general population: The development and validation of the Fire Setting and Fire Proclivity Scales. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 17(1), 105–122], the Fire Interest Rating Scale [Murphy, G. H., & Clare, I. C. H. (1996). Analysis of motivation in people with mild learning disabilities (mental handicap) who set fires. Psychology, Crime & Law, 2(3), 153–164], the Novaco Anger Scale and Provocation Inventory [Novaco, R. W. (2003). The Novaco Anger Scale and Provocation Inventory: NAS-PI. Los Angeles, CA: Western Psychological Services], the Boredom Proneness Scale – Short Form [Vodanovich, S. J., Wallace, J. C., & Kass, S. J. (2005). A confirmatory approach to the factor structure of the Boredom Proneness Scale: Evidence for a two-factor short form. Journal of Personality Assessment, 85(3), 295–303], and the Measure of Criminal Attitudes and Associates Scale [Mills, J. F., & Kroner, D. G. (1999). Measures of criminal attitudes and associates: User guide. Unpublished instrument and user guide].     

Bridging the gap between judges and the public? A multi-method study

This article examines the gap between Dutch judges and the public in terms of preferred severity of sentences. It focuses on one particular explanation usually given for the gap: the lack of case-specific, detailed information on the part of the general public. Findings from three studies are reported and combined: (a) a survey among a sample from the Dutch population (N = 2,127), (b) a sentencing experiment with judges in Dutch criminal courts (N = 180), and (c) a sentencing experiment, using the same case materials as with judges, but now with a sample from the Dutch population (N = 917). Results show that providing the public with detailed case information indeed reduces severity of sentences preferred. Moreover, those members of the public who were given short and unbalanced newspaper reports preferred much harsher sentences than did those who were given the full case files. However, despite such a reduction in punitiveness as a result of information, the public’s preferred sentences remain much more punitive than judges’ sentences pertaining to exactly the same case files.

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

The Dynamic Prediction of Criminal Recidivism: A Three-wave Prospective Study

A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73–.87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

Dynamic risk factors: scientific kinds or predictive constructs

ABSTRACT

There are a number of theoretical problems evident in the concept of dynamic risk factors that arise from their (increasing) importation into the explanatory and treatment domains of forensic and correctional practice. More specifically: (a) the concept of dynamic risk factors has not been well defined; (b) relatedly, there is a lack of clarity whether dynamic risk factors refer to causal processes or are predictive constructs; and finally (c) because of the above problems no one is sure how best to integrate them into clinical assessment and treatment. I will examine each of these three conceptual problems in this paper and make some suggestions about how to utilise dynamic risk factors in explanations of offending.     

Exploring Risk: Potential Static,Dynamic, Protective and Treatment Factors in the Clinical Histories of Female Sex Offenders

Despite nearly a century of knowledge indicating a significant number of women engaging in sexual activities with children, the phenomenon has not yet been fully acknowledged. Recently, however, there has been a marked increase in research in this area. However, due to the relatively small numbers of detections or convictions there remains a lack of data regarding: (1) the specific clinical characteristics of female sex offenders; and (2) how these clinical factors link to re-offending and treatment need. The following study examines potential risk, protective, and treatment factors that are highlighted through the process of clinical intervention, using an adapted version of the Beech and Ward (2004) risk framework. We describe how female sex offenders typically display clinical deficits in the same risk domains as their male counterparts, while noting the ways in which these deficits manifest in this population. In addition, we compare these vulnerability factors in four established types of female sex offender.     

Predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system in individuals with intellectual disability residing in the community

Background. The Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management System (DRAMS) was created to measure dynamic risk in individuals with intellectual disabilities (ID). Steptoe, Lindsay, Murphy, and Young, (2008) examined the construct validity, reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability and found that the total DRAMS score and sections on mood, antisocial behaviour and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size for offenders with ID residing in high secure settings.     

Publication and Research Trends in Police Psychology: A Review of Five Forensic Psychology Journals

Police psychology (PP) articles in five forensic psychology journals (Behavioral Sciences and the Law; Criminal Justice and Behavior; Law and Human Behavior; Legal and Criminological Psychology; Psychology, Crime, and Law) were identified in order to examine PP publication and research trends within the field of forensic psychology. A level of interest (LI) score was calculated by dividing the total number of pages dedicated to PP articles by the total number of journal pages. Article characteristics (e.g., research location, topic) were also coded. The overall LI-score across all journals was 0.13, with Legal and Criminological Psychology having the highest LI-score. Results also showed that interest in PP research is growing, particularly in Law and Human Behavior and Criminal Justice and Behavior. PP research has primarily been conducted in the United States, dedicated to operational issues, and experimental in nature. The alignment of these research trends with practice is discussed.

Criminogenic need and women offenders: A critique of the literature

Purpose . This paper considers the criminogenic needs of women offenders, raising the question of whether there may be women‐specific criminogenic needs. Arguments . The risk‐needs model of offending has become increasingly influential in both research and practice. Simply, the risk–needs model holds that some aspects of an individual's functioning are risk factors for offending. The distinction can be drawn between static and dynamic risk factors: the former are historical, the latter reflect current functioning and are amenable to change. These dynamic attributes linked to offending – such as financial status, emotional problems, and substance use – are referred to as criminogenic needs. Needs assessment instruments, such as the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R; Andrews & Bonta, 1995 ) have been developed to assess criminogenic need and predict risk of offending. Much of the research informing the risk–needs model has been carried out with male offenders, leading to questions about the criminogenic needs of women offenders and whether there may be women‐specific criminogenic needs. Conclusion . An overview of typical criminogenic needs, as assessed by the LSI‐R, suggests that there are probably common needs for male and female offenders. A common need does not imply that aetiology or level of importance of that need is the same for men and women, while some events, such as physical and sexual abuse, are arguably criminogenic needs for women. The implications for practice and research of understanding more about women‐specific criminogenic needs are considered.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.