How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

Mandatory life sentences for serious sex offenders in England and Wales: tough,but intelligent too?

Abstract

This paper reviews the changes in risk assessment procedures for sexual offenders over the last 15 years from the viewpoint of two active participants in that change. Best practices with this target group have evolved at a dizzying pace, leaving many practitioners and programme managers uncertain about which tests or procedures they should use and, frankly, wondering why things keep changing. We view this ongoing evolution as very positive. Compared to the early 1990s, evaluators now have better knowledge of the static and dynamic factors associated with sexual recidivism, and a number of empirically validated risk assessment tools. We describe the various risk assessment procedures we have introduced (e.g. STATIC-99, SONAR, STABLE-2007/ACUTE-2007), the reasons why practices have changed and the reasons why practices will continue to change.     

Criminal recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators

Forensic psychiatric reports on 166 sexual homicide perpetrators in Germany were retrospectively analyzed for criminal risk factors. Follow-up information about release and reconvictions from federal criminal records was available for 139 offenders; 90 (64.7%) had been released. The estimated recidivism rate (Kaplan-Meier analyses) for 20 years at risk was 23.1% for sexual and 18.3% for nonsexual violent reoffences. Three men (3.3%) were reconvicted for attempted or completed homicide. Only young age at the time of sexual homicide resulted in higher sexual recidivism, whereas increased nonsexual violent recidivism was related to previous sexual and nonsexual delinquency, psychopathic symptoms, and higher scores in risk assessment instruments. Increased recidivism with any violent reoffence was associated with age-related factors: young age at first sexual offence, at homicide, and at release and duration of detention. The impacts of the results for risk assessment, relapse prevention, and supervision are discussed.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Cross-Validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden

We cross-validated two actuarial risk assessment tools, the RRASOR (R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999), in a retrospective follow-up (mean follow-up time = 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993–1997 (N = 1,400, all men, age 18 years). File-based data were collected by a researcher blind to the outcome (registered criminal recidivism), and individual risk factors as well as complete instrument characteristics were explored. Both the RRASOR and the Static-99 showed similar and moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions whereas the Static-99 exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for the prediction of any violent recidivism as compared to the RRASOR. Although particularly the Static-99 proved moderately robust as an actuarial measure of recidivism risk among sexual offenders in Sweden, both procedures may need further evaluation, for example, with sex offender subpopulations differing ethnically or with respect to offense characteristics. The usefulness of actuarial methods for the assessment of sex offender recidivism risk is discussed in the context of current practice.     

How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

Sexual predator civil commitment: a comparison of selected and released offenders

This study compared two groups of sex offenders who were considered for civil commitment under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act: Two hundred twenty-nine sex offenders who were recommended by forensic evaluators to be civilly committed and 221 sex offenders who were recommended for release. It was hypothesized that selected offenders would be more likely to display risk factors for sex offense recidivism than those who did not meet criteria. Data analyses revealed that selected offenders, as a group, scored significantly higher on actuarial risk assessment instruments. There were also significant differences between the groups on other risk factors that have been empirically correlated with sexual recidivism. Selected offenders had higher frequencies of paraphilia diagnoses and antisocial personality. These findings supported the hypotheses and suggested that evaluators are correctly selecting for civil commitment those sex offenders who have a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and who are at higher risk for reoffense.     

To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota

PurposeThis study examines the selective incapacitation effects of civil commitment on sexual reoffending among 105 Minnesota sex offenders who were civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.MethodsThe Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3, a sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, was used to estimate what the four-year sexual recidivism rate would have been for these offenders had they been released to the community. Integration of Survival with Quality of Life (iSQoL) software was used to extrapolate the survival curves over a 50-year period to develop a lifetime sexual recidivism estimate.ResultsIf the 105 civilly committed sex offenders had been released to the community, an estimated nine percent would have been reconvicted of a new sex offense within four years. Civilly committing these offenders therefore likely reduced the overall four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent. The results further suggest that if these offenders had been released to the community, an estimated 28 percent would be rearrested for another sex offense within their lifetime.ConclusionsTo better align the costs of civil commitment with its public safety benefits, states operating these programs should emphasize the use of intermediate alternatives in the community for a more positive return on investment.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.     

Case study of three generations of incarcerated sexual offenders

In an attempt to better understand sexual offenders, this study with the aid of a genogram utilizing a grounded theory approach examined the experiences of three generations of incarcerated sexual offenders. The offenders in this study described experiences characterizing a continuum of failure to control their own criminal offences and perpetuity of their chronic conduct despite its serious consequences including imprisonment. One implication of those findings is that some incarcerated chronic sexual offenders possess a predisposition towards a sexual addiction and accordingly, a biological inheritance and environmental factors contribute to their conduct. Therefore, it is recommended for correctional systems including supervisory care that mandatory treatment within a medical model of confinement as opposed to a punitive model be established in order to curve recidivism and victimization levels. A longitudinal study should be conducted consisting of family members who are violent sexual offenders.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Risk assessment with adolescent sex offenders

The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the sample were designated recidivists versus non-recidivists using two methods: clinican's judgement and Home Office records for reconvictions. The risk assessment achieved a moderate to high level of sensitivity and specificity in distinguishing the recidivists from non-recidivists using clinician's judgement of recidivism as outcome. However, the tool was unable to distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. The risk assessment tool described has potential in the identification and modification of contextual and clinical risk factors, in informing professionals’ decision-making and in developing and implementing a comprehensive risk management plan.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

Five-year accuracy of assessments of high risk for sexual recidivism of adolescents

This study looked at 12 juveniles in Wisconsin who were recommended by experts for commitment under Chapter 980, known as the Sexually Violent Person Commitments Act, but who ultimately were not committed. The purpose was to determine the accuracy of these assessments and risk for sexual reoffending for juvenile sexual offenders. The results found a rate of 42% sexual recidivism among these individuals, with a 5-year at-risk period. This figure is in contrast to the low rates of sexual recidivism reported in the general juvenile sexual research. This provides evidence that the capability to assess the risk in juvenile sexual re-offending may at times be higher than previously estimated. Implications of these unusual results are discussed.     

Comparing Male and Female Prison Releasees across Risk Factors and Postprison Recidivism

This study, using data from a large sample of prison releasees, examined the similarities and differences in men's and women's risk factors for recidivism involving rearrest for any crime and rearrest for a violent crime during an average 3.4-year follow-up period. Logistic regressions revealed several gender differences. Prior incarceration, time served, and specific types of prior arrest histories had differential associations with women's and men's overall and violent recidivism. Age, race, and conviction offense were gender-specific risk factors for overall recidivism, and education level and marital status were gender-specific risk factors for violent recidivism. Implications for risk assessment are discussed.     

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk: reoffending rates for rapists,child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

Abstract

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.     

Risk and the preventive detention of sex offenders in Australia and the United States

The development of recent statutory schemes, in both the United States and Australia, aim to keep the most dangerous sex offenders detained beyond the expiration of their prison sentence. In Kansas v. Hendricks (1997), the United States Supreme Court found constitutional Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) legislation that allows for the post-sentence, indefinite civil commitment of a subclass of dangerous offenders. More recently, the Australian High Court in Attorney-General (Qld) v. Fardon (2004) similarly upheld the constitutionality of Queensland's Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act (2003), which allows for the post-sentence preventive detention of sex offenders deemed to be at high risk of serious sexual recidivism. Because an evaluation of a sex offender's likelihood of re-offending is fundamental to these schemes, this article provides an overview of recent advances in the risk assessment literature, discussing base rates of sexual recidivism, the identification of empirically validated risk factors, and the utility of structured risk assessment tools. Although it is recommended that risk assessment measures be utilized to assist the courts in making sound decisions about commitment, the limits of current research knowledge and areas of future research need are discussed.