Retrospective and Prospective Performance Assessments during the 2004 Election Campaign: Tests of Mediation and News Media Priming

According to many theoretical accounts of the vote choice, distal determinants (e.g., party identification) influence proximal determinants (e.g., perceptions of candidates), which in turn shape candidate preferences. Yet almost no research on voting has formally tested such mediational hypotheses. Using national survey data collected between February and September of 2004, this paper begins by illustrating how to conduct such investigations. We explored whether public approval of President Bush’s handling of a series of specific national problems (e.g., the Iraq war) influenced overall assessments of his job performance and evaluations of his likely future performance versus John Kerry’s, which in turn shaped vote choices. The results are consistent with the claim of mediation and shed additional light on the impact of various issues on the 2004 election outcome. We also tested what we term the “dosage hypothesis,” derived from news media priming theory, which posits that changes in the amount of media coverage of an issue during the course of a campaign should precipitate changes in the weight citizens place on that issue when evaluating the president’s overall job performance, particularly among citizens most exposed to the news. Surprisingly, this analysis did not yield consistent support for the venerable dosage hypothesis, suggesting that the conditions under which priming occurs should be specified much more precisely in future work.

Returning to a Sane Foreign Policy

The next president of the USA will surely correct some of the Bush administration’s most egregious policy errors, particularly its gross insensitivity to the rest of the world’s opinions and its extreme bellicosity. To restore trust in American, and to strengthen national security, better diplomacy will be necessary. Strengthening a demoralized and nearly dysfunctional State Department by acknowledging the vital role foreign area experts must play will have to be a major part of the new administration’s policy.

Race,Partisanship, and Political Trust Following <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bush versus Gore</Emphasis> (2000)

In contrast to what we know about the sources of political trust among whites, recent research suggests that political mistrust among blacks indicates discontent with the political system. The current study adds to research investigating racial differences in political trust by examining racial differences in the influence of the 2000 United States presidential election on political trust. Specifically, I test for whether whites and blacks adjusted their trust in government in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in Bush versus Gore (2000) and whether the influence of the Court’s decision on trust was dependent on partisan identification. The findings indicate that blacks perceived the Court’s decision as illegitimate, reinforcing their mistrust in their political system.

International Obligations and the Morality of War

Americans are not as religiously divided on foreign policy questions as they are over such hot-button, culture war domestic issues as abortion and gay marriage. Nevertheless, surveys suggest that Americans’ attitudes on several foreign policy fronts are consistent with a religious worldview. This analysis draws primarily on the findings of various PRC polls to examine the relationship between religion and three areas of foreign policy: the role of the USA in the world; the nature of international obligations; and the morality of war.

Pluralism and Multiculturalism

I agree with Roger Sandall’s opposition to the ‘culture cult’ in broad outline, but wish to register three reservations. First, he is too sweeping in apparently attacking the whole of ‘multiculturalism’, and unfair in condemning claims on the basis of the motives allegedly behind them. Second, his relativist interpretation of Berlin and Herder needs qualification, since their work also contains the idea of value pluralism, which should be distinguished from relativism. Third, the political implications of pluralism support a commitment to liberal universalism and liberal multiculturalism, which may not be far removed from Sandall’s own position.

Hans Jonas: A Study in Biology and Ethics

Hans Jonas was a philosopher who looked nihilism in the eye and courageously stood his ground. He did so by volunteering to serve against the Nazis in World War II, by discovering the links to nihilism in his thought of his teacher Martin Heidegger and by developing a novel philosophy of nature that took its lessons from both Aristotle and Darwin. Jonas’s philosophy of organic nature – his rehabilitation of the soul as a relevant notion for biology – provided prescient insights for the still developing fields of bioethics and environmental ethics.

Why it Never Really was About Authenticity

Critics of the concept fail to note that staged authenticity is not authenticity but its opposite or negation. This error is illustrated referencing Ed Bruner’s reading of The Tourist in his recent book Culture on Tour.

From Dictatorship to Democracy: Four Chilean Women’s Memories

A law school dean, a university president, a scholarly judge, and the head of the Foreign Ministry division in charge of Chile’s frontiers agree: The Constitution of 1980 was the initial turning point in Chile’s transition from autocracy to pluralism.

Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance

In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways.

The Freedom of Expression in Global Perspective

This paper presents recent events including the Danish cartoon crisis occasion—a re-examination of John Stuart Mill’s argument for freedom of expression. Despite the appeal of liberalism, Mill’s philosophy had from the start been subject to intense criticism. The rise of political Islam opens a new phase in the debate; the difficulties pointed out by Mill’s critics are indicative of the obstacles that liberalism still faces.

Stuck with Virtue in Our Pro-Life Future

Callahan is wrong to be pro-death, but he’s right to say that to live well—or for society to have a real future—we have to care about more than mere life. Futile attempts to stop the pursuit of extreme personal prolongevity are contrary to our rights-based way of life. It’s also contrary to human love and dignity to regard the old as a threat.

The “L-Word,” or Turning Fifty

This meditative essay by a writer and professor reflects on the milestone of reaching 50 years of age. The author relates his own experiences and those of his elder literary friends and colleagues who have felt comparable anxieties and coped with similar challenges toward aging and death. He records their own milestones on life’s journey as well as their insightful and often quite hopeful, if not always cheery, responses. Several of them, like the author, admit that turning 50 has entailed for them a coming to terms with the impossibility of realizing some immortality projects.

Beyond Good and Evil: The Black–White Divide in Critical Race Theory

Derrick Bell’s work challenges the dichotomy that separates legitimate legal reasoning from “mere” fiction through hybrids that play across science fiction, Platonic dialogue, and autobiography. Despite its merits, I argue that Bell’s position reifies and strengthens, rather than deconstructs, structures of tyranny; it maintains the problematic rhetorical construction of United States race relations in terms of the black–white divide, either alienating, or leaving little or no room for other racial groups constructively to revise power and identity. In contrast, bell hooks’, Mari Matsuda’s and Robert Chang’s work, though tentatively sketched, construes current race and gender relations in terms of a chiaroscuro of power, rather than a simple dichotomy.

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The Need for Death

‘Social precognition’ is the forerunner of new developments in science and technology such as extended life or immortality. While life-extension may have been neglected by philosophers or social scientists, it has been explored in depth by creative writers. They underline the threat of new kinds of inequality and of the conservatism of a society that protects the interests of the long-lived. They also question the quality of a longer life as likely to be lonely and empty rather than wise, peaceful and fulfilled.

Wie lässt sich Demokratie am besten messen? Zum Forumsbeitrag von Thomas Müller und Susanne Pickel

Ohne Zusammenfassung * Die vier Autor(inn)en arbeiten in einem gemeinsamen Forschungsprojekt des NCCR Democracy (vom Schweizerischen Nationalfonds finanziertes National Centre of Competence in Research: Challenges to Democracy in the 21^st Century) und des WZB an einem „Demokratiebarometer“ für die 30 OECD-Staaten, das die Ignoranz der 0-Varianz bei Polity und Freedom House aufkl?ren will.

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Has Television Personalized Voting Behavior?

Scholars and political observers have suggested that television has “personalized” voting behavior in American presidential elections by encouraging citizens to cast ballots on the basis of candidate image and personality. Though an oft-heard assertion, little solid evidence exists that this is true, and the reinvigoration of partisanship and the persistence of ideological conflict suggest personalization may be less pervasive than supposed. In this paper, I use National Election Studies data to examine whether voters are more concerned with candidates’ personal characteristics now than they were at the outset of the television era. I find, however, that voters are no more likely today to mention candidate personality as a reason for their vote choice than they were in the 1950s and 1960s. Moreover, while personality affects voting behavior, its influence on candidate choice is not significantly larger than it was a half-century ago. The results are not contingent on exposure to television or political awareness and are insensitive to different measures of perceptions of candidate image. The findings are consistent with the resurgence of partisan voting in American elections and suggest that some concerns about TV’s effects on political judgment are exaggerated.

Electoral Democracy during Wartime: The 2004 U.S. Election

The U.S. election of 2004 affords an opportunity to investigate how wartime affects presidential voting. The conventional wisdom is that wartime presidents always get reelected, but previous studies have not examined how citizens' attitudes on the war affect their voting. The papers in this special issue investigate this process, looking at how attitudes on the Iraq War, the larger War on Terrorism, and the so-called cultural war affected attitudes toward the presidential candidates and voting. The studies use a wide variety of datasets and survey questions, showing that the different aspects of the war resonate with different voters and that some of the effects of wartime are indirect through increasing the salience of leadership in the election. Wartime presidents do not get reelected automatically; they have had success in reelection because of how they use the war to build an image that can get them reelected.

As Dayton Undergoes Proposals for Reform, the Status of Freedom of Movement, Refugee Returns, and War Crimes in Bosnia And Herzegovina

The Dayton General Framework Agreement for Peace of late 1995 brought a ceasefire and an end to the killings in Bosnia. More than 11 years after its signing, some of Dayton’s outlined aims for Bosnia remain unfulfilled or realized with mixed results. Late in 2005, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of Dayton, leading world political figures raved about the successes of Dayton, but the immediate calls for the reform of Constitution included in the Dayton agreement, which followed the praise, are perhaps a better indicator of the Agreement’s shortfalls in transitioning the Bosnian society from war to peace and subsequently creating a functioning state since its signing. The outlined aims of Dayton were undoubtedly ambitious. This article will examine the successes and failures of Dayton, within the framework of its own aims and jurisdiction – which themselves, in the process, evolved and changed – to protect human rights with respect to the freedom of movement, the return of refugees, and the war crime indictments.

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Public Opinion and Collective Obligations

This article attempts to identify the general principles that underlie public reasoning about collective obligations and that help explain when political parties can create new obligations or defend existing ones. I use these principles to President Clinton’s unsuccessful attempt to create government health-care plan and attempts by President Bush to privatize Social Security. The success of a party in selling – or defeating – an obligation depends upon what people believe about the competence and capacity of government and the value of autonomy – choices made by each citizen; whether people perceive the obligation as providing floors or establishing ceilings by limiting choice or otherwise restricting opportunities for the better-off; and whether the program is more like insurance or more like welfare. A party’s ability to maintain credibility with voters also depends upon whether party leaders can suppress issues that threaten intra-party elite pacts. When attempts to suppress “taboo” issues like “stem cells” or “black crime” fail, the party loses credibility with its voters and attempts to defend or sell obligations fail.

Pope Benedict XVI Confronts Religious Relativism

Pope Benedict XVI’s inflammatory speech at Regensburg highlights a subtle difference between Benedict and John Paul II. John Paul called Muslims and Jews “sons of Abraham,” and he organized high-profile interfaith events. Benedict is more skeptical of interreligious dialog and more confrontational toward Islam than was his predecessor. This shift in tone toward Islam stems from changed historical circumstances. Islam has replaced communism as Europe’s biggest ideological challenge. But, there are also subtle theological differences between the two Popes. John Paul was trained by Dominicans, and throughout his papacy, he was a champion of St. Thomas Aquinas. St. Augustine, with his bleaker view of non-Christian cultures, is the dominant influence on Benedict. Benedict believes that theologies of religious pluralism, which lead to metaphysical and religious relativism, have replaced liberation theologies as the most serious threats to Catholic orthodoxy.