The “revival of communism” or the effect of institutions?: The 1993 Polish parliamentary elections

In several Eastern European countries the breakdown of communism in 1989 was followed by a surprising return to power of post-communist parties. Yet, some electoral victories of post-communists look puzzling when contrasted with a small size of a shift in voters' preferences that has led to them. Such is the case of the 1993 Polish parliamentary elections. Using partition-function form games and results of simulated elections, we estimate the impact of three factors that were blamed, in addition to the shift to the left in voters' preferences, for the 1993 victory of the post-communists in Poland. We show that the shift to the left was insufficient to assure post-communists an electoral victory, and that this victory would not have happened under the old electoral law or under a unified coalition of the Right. Our results show the high sensitivity of emerging democracies to the details of their institutional backbones.     

Multi-level muddling: Candidate strategies to “nationalize” local elections

Comparative literature has identified how political parties at subnational levels strategically refer to the performance of parties or policy issues at national level to varying degrees. Building upon these studies on multi-level electoral dynamics, the article demonstrates how individual legislative candidates, and not just parties, selectively adopt what we call “cross-level electoral appeals”(CLEAs): campaign messages which emphasize issues, performances, and actors in levels of government other than that which the candidate or party is seeking office. Advancing existing conceptualizations of nationalization, we posit that there are mainly three types of such CLEAs, those in which local candidates: 1) praise or criticize a specific national policy or 2) performance of the national government; or 3) emphasize personal linkages to national-level parties or politicians. The article investigates the potential factors which lead to more frequent CLEAs by observing candidate manifestos for local legislative elections in Japan. We use an original dataset from a sample of prefectures differently affected by specific national policies, candidates affiliated to parties differing in organizational centralization and from districts varying in seat magnitude as well as incumbent party popularity. To test hypotheses about national and local level party popularity as well as district-level variables on the frequency of such appeals, the article analyzed the data set using the novel methodology of not just counting, but also measuring the surface area of specific appeals in candidate manifestos. Through regression analysis, we find evidence of national government party popularity leading to more frequency of local candidate CLEAs. We also find that local candidates who are more dependent on the party vote (i.e. those in smaller district magnitudes and in centralized party organizations) are more prone to certain types of CLEAs.     

The French elections of 2017: shaking the disease?

The results of the 2017 presidential and legislative elections represent an important shift in French politics. For the first time in the history of the 5th French Republic, the candidates of the two traditional governing parties were disqualified during the first round of the presidential elections. The duel between a centrist and a radical-right candidate in the second round of the elections constitutes an unprecedented configuration. Moreover, there was a record parliamentary renewal after the 2017 legislative elections, as well as a feminisation of the National Assembly with 38.8 per cent of women among the deputies. At the same time, abstention for the legislative elections reached a new record high. Overall, the results of the French elections in 2017 could point to major shifts in the party system, as well as to a renewal of the French political elite, and to an enduring malaise between French citizens and their political representatives.     

The impact of at-large elections: vote dilution or choice dilution?

Multi-member, at-large legislative elections result in election outcomes different from outcomes in single-member district elections for two reasons: they cancel out the voting strength of geographically concentrated groups of voters (e.g., party groups, racial groups), and they make it difficult for a voter to vote for an individual candidate, rather than for one of the competing lists of candidates. An electoral setting in Long Island, New York, presents an opportunity to test which of these two aspects of at-large elections—vote dilution or choice dilution—accounts for the usual pattern of one party (or group) winning all the legislative seats at stake.     

What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections

Existing theories of contesting elections typically treat all potential challengers as identical while under-playing the importance of political parties and primary contests. We offer a theory addressing these issues based on how the various actors in the process define and evaluate the probability of winning an election and the value of the office being contested. We test our theory by estimating a model predicting which of three responses a party that loses a legislative race makes in the next cycle: nominating the same candidate, nominating a new candidate, or nominating no one. We find substantial empirical support for our theory.     

Why noncompetitive states are so important for understanding the outcomes of competitive elections: the Electoral College 1868–2016

Brams and Kilgour (Public Choice 170:99–113, 2017) begin their recent essay on the Electoral College (EC) by pointing out the obvious, but nonetheless regularly neglected fact that noncompetitive states may have a decisive impact on EC outcomes and shape the electoral strategies of the candidates in the competitive states, especially if there is asymmetry in the partisan balances in the non-competitive states. Their contribution is to offer combinatorics insights into the implications of such asymmetries in the form of three new indicators: Winningness, Vulnerability, and Fragility. They then explore the magnitude and effects of these three measures for the presidential elections of 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. The major contribution of this note is to extend their analyses of these measures to an additional 34 elections: every election in the modern two-party post-Civil War era from 1868 to 2016. We find the Winningness measure to predict very well over the entire set of 38 presidential elections. Inspired by their work, we also offer a new and simpler metric for partisan asymmetries in noncompetitive states and show how it can predict the expected closeness of EC outcomes as well or better than the more complex combinatorics measures they propose.     

German elections: more of the same?

As Germany's citizens prepare to vote in elections for the Bundestag, its European counterparts are paying closer attention than in previous years. But just as this election campaign has failed to spark much enthusiasm domestically, so its impact on Europe might be similarly anti-climactic.     

The Alternative Vote and Coombs Rule versus First-Past-the-Post: a social choice analysis of simulated data based on English elections, 1992–2010

This paper presents a social choice analysis, using simulated data based on English general elections from 1992 through 2010, of the properties of three voting rules: First-Past-the-Post, the Alternative Vote, and the Coombs Rule. More specifically, the paper examines (1) the plurality, anti-plurality, and Condorcet status of candidates in each election and the interrelationships among these statuses, (2) the effects of strict and partial single-peakedness of voter preferences, and (3) the identity of winners, Condorcet efficiency, and the relationship between votes and seats under the three voting rules. The analysis considers only the case of three candidates and, in the manner of basic social choice theory, the set of candidates and voter preferences over them are taken to be fixed.     

The second European elections: 14–17 June 1984

Social Democratic Parties in Western Europe. Edited by William E. Paterson and Alastair H. Thomas. London: Croom Helm, 1977. Pp. 444. £9.95.

Policy Making in the European Communities. Edited by H. Wallace, W. Wallace and C. Webb. London: Wiley, 1977. Pp. xiv+341. £10.50.

La Politique Militaire de la Ve République. By Lothar Ruehl. Presses de la Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques (Cahiers de la Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques No. 193), 1976. Pp. xi+130. Fr. 76.

Fascism. By Martin Kitchen, London: Macmillan, 1976. Pp. xi+106. £2.95.

Sozialpolitik im Dritten Reich: Arbeiterklasse und Volksgemeinschaft. By Timothy W. Mason. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1977. Pp. 374, DM. 19,80.

Writers and Politics in Modern France. (1909–1961). By J. E. Flower. London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1977. Pp. vii+78. £1.50.

Le discours communiste. By Dominique Labbe. Paris: Presses de la Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques, 1977. Pp. 205. Frs. 80.

Western Europe: The Trials of Partnership. Edited by David Landes. Critical Choices for Americans, Vol. VIII. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books (D. C. Heath), 1977. Pp. xix+406. £12.50.

The Jekyll and Hyde Years: Politics and Economic Policy since 1964. By Michael Stewart. London: Dent, 1977. Pp. 272. £8.50.

From Summit to Council: Evolution in the EEC. By Annette Morgan. London: Chatham House‐PEP, 1976. Pp. 75. £1.50.

The Politics and Economics of European Monetary Integration. By Loukas Tsoukalis. London: Allen and Unwin, 1977. Pp. 192. £8.50.

National Attitudes and the Financing of Industry. By Yao‐Su Hu. London: Chatham House—PEP, 1975. Pp. v+71. £3.00.

The Deferential Worker: A study of farm workers in East Anglia. By Howard Newby. London: Allen Lane, 1977. Pp. 462; £9.00.

The European Policy of the SPD. By Juliet Lodge, Sage Research Paper, Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 5, 1977 $3.00.

Der Rechtsstatus des Landes Berlin. Eine Untersuchung nach dem Viermachte‐Abkommen vom 3. September 1971. By Ernst R. Zivier, Berlin: Berlin‐Verlag, 3rd. ed., 1977. Pp. 399 (incl. Dokumentation); DM 36.

Die DDR zwischen Ost und West von 1961 bis 1976. By Peter C. Ludz. Munich: C. H. Beck'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung, 1977. Pp. 367; DM 19,80.     

Are city elections unique? Perceptions of electoral cleavages and social sorting across levels of government

A long tradition of scholarship has argued that the cleavages that animate urban politics are distinct from those that structure regional or national politics. More recent scholarship has challenged this view, demonstrating the relevance of cleavages that apply at higher levels of government, such as partisanship and ideology, for urban elections. We contribute to this debate by investigating the perceptions of urban residents themselves. Using survey data from a major Canadian city, we use a novel survey question battery to compare how urban residents understand municipal and provincial electoral cleavages. We consider two questions that speak to the distinctiveness of local politics: (1) How do electors perceive coalitions of support at the two levels of government, and do perceptions of coalitions differ across levels? (2) How do perceptions compare to actual electoral coalitions at the two levels? We find little evidence to support the view that local electoral cleavages are unique.     

The timing of elections in federations: a disciplining device against soft budget constraints?

We introduce political economics into the soft budget constraint problem by asking if the timing of elections has the potential to harden budget constraints. Specifically, we ask under which circumstances the soft budget constraint problem is worse—with synchronized elections, i.e. simultaneous central and regional office terms, or with staggered elections, i.e. terms of office that do not coincide. We find that staggered elections clearly improve fiscal discipline at the local level as well as welfare.     

Time to Discuss: Data to Crunch or Problems to Solve? A Rejoinder to Robert Thomson

Testing the insights from qualitative case studies (Falkner et al. 2005 Falkner, G., Treib, O., Hartlapp, M. and Leiber, S. 2005. Complying with Europe. EU Harmonisation and Soft Law in the Member States, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) in quantitative models is a challenging task (see Thomson 2007). This article argues that in political science, our evaluation standards for quantitative analyses need to go far beyond the sophistication of calculations. They should include the quality of assumptions imputed, of data used, and of reasoning as to the political – as opposed to statistical – significance of regressions. When presenting statistical findings that counter solid qualitative work, scholars therefore are under an obligation also to present reasoned arguments for their case, taking into full account the qualitative findings on processes and mechanisms unveiled in these empirical studies.     

The progress of the betting in a baseball game: A comment

In their article in the current issue of this journal, Sauer et al. compare the evolution of prices of in-game betting markets of baseball games to an empirical model of scoring based on the probability of various game events occurring. The authors correctly suggest this in-game betting market provides an opportunity to examine the efficiency of gambling markets, as the value of the security being examined can be known with a greater degree of precision than the fundamental value of securities being traded in general financial markets. While we appreciate the progress that has occurred, we believe that with some fairly simple changes, the authors may be able to improve the precision of their model to the point where a more powerful commentary on potential market efficiency could be developed. We offer suggestions on more precisely matching of the two sources of data, timing of the events, and dealing with games in which there is a clear pre-game favorite. We close with suggestions for extensions.