A method for estimating the GNP loss from a future oil embargo

This article develops a theoretical model to estimate the loss in GNP to the U.S. economy that would result from a future oil embargo. The model is based on an input-output matrix of the economy, but modifies the traditional input-output analysis in order to take account of conservation and substitution possibilities. Data generated from the 1973–74 embargo is used as a bench mark for this study in order to assure that the model produces reasonable estimates. Based upon estimates of future economic and energy growth, this study concludes that the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to economic damage as a result of a future embargo.This work was begun while the author was employed at the Center of Naval Analyses during the summer of 1974. Financial support for the continuation of this project was received from the Federal Energy Administration, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the FEA. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of either of the above organizations.     

An evaluation of some microeconomic consequences of a future oil embargo

In order to develop an energy policy designed to help insulate the economy against the effects of a future oil embargo, projections of the effects of an embargo are necessary. Past work has concentrated on the aggregate output loss from an embargo, but has not carefully considered other important effects. This paper examines two important effects. First, the most heavily damaged sectors are identified, showing the automobile industry to have by far the most significant damage. Second, a large part of the economic damage done by an embargo is shown to be due to a decline in the demand for output rather than as a direct consequence of reduced petroleum supplies. This finding is significant for two related policy reasons. First, it implies that even if policy makers could replace all of the embargoed oil, major economic disruptions could still result from an embargo. Second, policies designed to minimize demand disruptions can achieve significant benefits, at low cost, and should have a high priority in policy matters pertaining to embargoes.Financial support for this work was received from the Department of Energy, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the DOE. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

China and Europe: engagement,multipolarity and strategy

Abstract

Ever closer relations between China and Europe over the last decade have sparked speculation about an emerging axis or balance of power vis-à-vis the United States. China, the European Union and its key member states have expressed a preference for a more balanced international order based on multilateral institutions. Despite a rapid and extensive expansion in economic and political relations between China and the European Union, there is no evidence for balancing against the United States in strategic areas. Rather, the variations in the positions of China, the European Union and the United States can more accurately be seen as policy or interest bargaining. Because the European Union does not share US security interests in the Asia-Pacific region, the European Union and its key member states can seem at variance with the US position on China. Bargaining over the failed attempt to lift the European Union's arms embargo against China shows that the European Union and the United States are not so far apart on strategic issues in the Asia-Pacific.     

Qatar and its neighbours

Qatar’s ruling family has a long history of struggle with rival Gulf dynasties. Qatar’s neighbours have increasingly seen in Doha’s determination to forge an independent path an alarming affinity to the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. This perception contributed to their embargo of Qatar in June 2017. The embargo has failed to isolate or break Qatar, however, and there is little indication that the dispute will be resolved soon.     

行政管理支出、城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析

建立在向量自回归模型的基础上,运用Granger因果关系检验、协整理论和向量误差修正模型分析我国行政管理支出、城市化和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明：我国城市化发展滞后于经济发展;城市化水平的提高导致行政管理支出的膨胀。长期来说,三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,其中,经济增长与城市化水平正相关、与行政管理支出负相关;行政管理支出与城市化水平正相关。短期来说,我国的经济增长和城市化水平都有惯性上升的趋势,其它变量的波动对其影响不显著;短期内行政管理支出也有惯性增长趋势,同时受城市化水平波动的影响;而且,三个变量对上一期非均衡的校正能力都很弱。     

Controlling money during socialist economic reform: the Chinese experience

Contrary to the easy job that some conservative economists imagine, the task faced by the socialist monetary authority in controlling the money supply during economic reform is a daunting one, as recent experience in China indicates. It is difficult to estimate the demand for money in the mixed system that has emerged from the reform process, with all its structural disequilibria. Given prevailing economic and political interferences, keeping the money supply within targets is also beset with problems. Monetary issues have not received much attention in the conventional discourse about socialist economics, before or during reform. Hence the Chinese central bank often has to take uninformed action on events that it cannot effectively control. The results could be very serious, even tragic. In any case, it seems that the bank should not shoulder the main blame.     

Understanding the Political Economy of Cross-Strait Security: A Missing Link

This paper explores how and why China has been perceived as an economic threat in Taiwan through an examination of Taipei’s post-Cold War economic policy with respect to the mainland. While Taipei’s restriction on trade and investment across the Taiwan Strait until mid-2008 was widely considered a failure by both opponents and supporters of closer cross-Strait economic ties, this analysis points to an overlooked function of Taiwan’s economic policy that was not just about tackling the problems of the security externalities or promoting the island’s economic development. What appeared to be an ineffective policy can be understood as a successful boundary-drawing practice that discursively constituted a vulnerable Taiwan under Chinese economic threat, hence conducive to the (re)production of Taiwanese national identity.     

Who Votes for the Future? Information,Expectations, and Endogeneity in Economic Voting

Voters’ four primary evaluations of the economy—retrospective national, retrospective pocketbook, prospective national, and prospective pocketbook—vary in the cognitive steps necessary to link economic outcomes to candidates in elections. We hypothesize that the effects of the different economic evaluations on vote choice vary with a voter’s ability to acquire information and anticipate the election outcome. Using data from the 1980 through 2004 US presidential elections, we estimate a model of vote choice that includes all four economic evaluations as well as information and uncertainty moderators. The effects of retrospective evaluations on vote choice do not vary by voter information. Prospective economic evaluations weigh in the decisions of the most informed voters, who rely on prospective national evaluations when they believe the incumbent party will win and on prospective pocketbook evaluations when they are uncertain about the election outcome or believe that the challenger will win. Voters who have accurate expectations about who will win the election show the strongest relationship between their vote choice and sociotropic evaluations of the economy, both retrospective and prospective. Voters whose economic evaluations are most likely to be endogenous to vote choice show a weaker relationship between economic evaluations and their votes than the voters who appear to be more objective in their assessments of the election. Economic voting is broader and more prospective than previously accepted, and concerns about endogeneity in economic evaluations are overstated.     

How electoral reform alters legislative speech: Evidence from the parliament of Victoria,Australia 1992–2017

Does changing single-member district (SMD) systems to proportional representation (PR) systems affect politicians' behavior? Previous studies, which have utilized cross-sectional or temporal variation in electoral systems, fail to estimate their effects. In contrast, we employ a difference-in-differences design and text analysis to estimate the causal effect of an electoral reform on politicians' issue attention. In particular, we estimate the causal effect of the electoral reform in the Parliament of Victoria in Australia, which changed the electoral systems of the Legislative Council from SMD to PR while holding the system of the Legislative Assembly constant. We analyzed a newly collected dataset of legislators' inaugural speeches from 1992 to 2017 using a topic model. The results show the electoral reform increased politicians’ attention to new economic issues but did not decrease attention to local interests such as promoting primary industries.     

Iraq: The New Criminal 'War' of the Transnational Elite

Abstract The aims of this paper are fourfold: first, to show that the present invasion and occupation of Iraq is in fact the culmination of a campaign that began with the 'war' in the Gulf in 1991 and continued with over a decade of constant bombardment and embargo, with the overall aim of establishing a client regime in Iraq as a means of achieving a number of important economic and geopolitical aims; second, to discuss the role of the UN in the New World Order and the change in this role between the 'Clinton doctrine' and the 'Bush' doctrine'; third, to discuss the criminal invasion itself and the dubious character of the 'victory' claimed by the transnational elite,1 all the members of which, directly or indirectly, took part in this campaign; fourth to examine the role of the Left in relation to the 'war'.Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. (British) Proclamation of Baghdad, 19 March 1917 Our forces are friends and liberators of the Iraqi people, not your conquerors. Tony Blair's address on Towards Freedom TV, 10 April 2003     

The Scandinavian Democratic Model

Given the continuing importance of democracy as an analytic concept. this article seeks to compare Scandinavian practice with accepted general definitions and theories. Definitions that recognize contemporary political democracy as consensual and procedural seem most appropriate to the Scandinavian cases. Although remaining dynamic. political democracy has not been a contested principle for more than 50 years.
Efforts since 1945 to extend democracy to social and economic spheres have been more controversial, however. Welfare state measures enjoy broad support, not least for functional reasons. For many, however, such policies seek a broader social democracy instead of merely a humane 'safety net'. Economic democracy remains the most contested dimension. Seeking to transcend corporatism and rational collective bargaining, economic democracy seeks simultaneously to promote greater economic equality and participation while maintaining an efficient productive system.
The dynamic and expanded democratic model has engendered much domestic debate about means and ends. This has been, on balance, a source of reinvigoration.     

Inflation,unemployment and government popularity—Dynamic models for the United States,Britain and West Germany

There has been numerous attempts to model the relationship between unemployment, inflation, other economic variables and government popularity in a variety of industrial countries. However, there is conflicting evidence about the magnitude and significance of effects both between different countries, and within the same country at different points of time. The purpose of this article is to examine the existing literature, to provide a critique of the theoretical and statistical validity of many existing studies, and to specify and estimate a dynamic model of the relationship between inflation, unemployment and government popularity in three countries over the post-war period. This model is a multivariate transfer function with an autoregressive-moving average error structure which has been developed in its general form by Box and Jenkins. The results demonstrate significant relationships between inflation, unemployment and government popularity, but relationships which are relatively weak and unstable over time.     

When do Economic Perceptions Matter for Party Approval?

Do economic perceptions influence partisan preferences or vice versa? We argue that the direction of influence between government approval and economic perceptions is conditional on the state of the economy. Under conditions of economic crisis, when economic signals are relatively unambiguous, perceptions of the economy can be expected to exogenously influence government approval but this is not found when the economy is experiencing a more typical pattern of moderate growth and economic signals are more mixed. We test these arguments using British election panel surveys covering electoral cycles of moderate economic growth (1997–2001) and dramatic and negative disruption (2005–2010). We examine the most commonly employed measures of retrospective economic perceptions and estimate a range of models using structural equations modelling. We demonstrate that when the economy is performing extremely badly economic perceptions have an exogenous effect on government approval and provide a means of electoral accountability, but this is not the case in under more normal circumstances.     

The Political Implications of American Concerns About Economic Inequality

This article presents a national measure of Americans’ level of concern about economic inequality from 1966 to 2015, and analyzes the relationship between this construct and public support for government intervention in the economy. Current research argues that concerns about economic inequality are associated with a desire for increased government action, but this relationship has only been formally tested using cross-sectional analyses. I first use a form of dynamic factor analysis to develop a measure of national concern over time. Using an error correction model I then show that an increase in national concern about economic inequality does not lead to a subsequent increase in support for government intervention in the economy. Instead there is some evidence that, once confounding factors are accounted for, an increase in concern could lead to reduced support for government intervention.     

Structure of State‐Level Tax and Expenditure Limits

While much consideration has been given to the approval process, base classification, and codification of tax and expenditure limits (or TELs), these factors tell us nothing about how they actually work. This study focuses exclusively on the technical elements of these limits and finds how states estimate their limits have over time eroded their potency. More specifically, if a state resets or rebases its limit annually by using actual revenues or expenditures for the preceding year, the limit will trend closely with actual revenues or expenditures, effectively restricting growth in spending as prescribed by law. However, if the law requires a state to estimate its limit using the appropriation limit for the preceding year instead of actual revenues or expenditures, that is, without rebasing, the limit will reflect cumulative changes to the base when it was first approved. Over time, the TEL cap is significantly above the states revenues or expenditures as it remains unaffected by the state's underlying fiscal and economic environment.     

Good times,bad times: Taxation and electoral accountability

In this article we address two important and related questions. First, do economic hard times make defeat inevitable for any incumbent? And, second, do voters sanction incumbents for a poor economy whatever the economic policy pursued? To answer these questions, we propose a new theory about the ways in which taxation policies, clarity of responsibility, government ideology, and economic conditions come together to shape election outcomes. We address these questions with a new set of data collected on elections, government policies, and economic measures before and during the current economic crisis. Our findings indicate that taxation policies have effects on incumbent electoral patterns net of economic performance measures, but that these effects differ in theoretically-expected fashions depending on clarity of responsibility, government ideology, and whether or not there has been a recession in the year before an election is held.     

The determinants and interrelationship of carbon emissions and economic growth in African economies: Fresh insights from static and dynamic models

This study explores the interrelationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth in selected Africa economies from 1990 to 2014 providing evidence from both static and dynamic models. Results show that increases in energy use have a significant and positive effect on economic growth; which goes to show that growth in Africa is actually energy dependent. Further findings suggest that CO₂ emissions have no significant contemporaneous effect, however, a significant and negative effect at a one‐period lag on economic growth. The significance of the impacts is consistently confirmed by both the static and dynamic estimations. Also, trade adds to economic growth and also contributes to environmental deterioration in Africa. There is a dire need for Africa to adjust its energy portfolio by shifting to clean energy sources which will enhance sustainable economic growth without deteriorating the environment.     

Interrogating the Political Economy of Age

This article considers the argument by Tim Vlandas, in this issue, that an ageing electorate may undermine democracies’ ability to make the right economic choices. Vlandas suggests that the emergence of gerontocratic politics may give rise to ‘gerontonomia’: an economy run for the old, at the expense of younger generations and of future prosperity. However, evidence from the UK suggests a more mixed picture. Age-based voting patterns have been consequential around single issues, not least the 2016 Brexit referendum. However, voters’ interests in broad economic policy models are not easily reducible to age dynamics, and intergenerational politics are filtered through a set of normative and affective considerations beyond straightforward self-interest. Moreover, since the rational interests of different age groups do not speak for themselves, cueing by political elites is potentially significant and may be contributing to older voters’ relative tolerance of a poor economic record.     

Candidate Character vs. The Economy in the 1992 Election

The outcome of the 1992 U.S. presidential election has been explained largely as a function of perceptions of George Bush's economic performance. The economy submerged questions about Bill Clinton's character, awarding the advantage to the Democrat. In this article, we evaluate the effect of economic evaluations along with character attacks on candidate support in the 1992 presidential contest. Claims that the economy submerged character have been somewhat exaggerated. But while character remains an important issue in presidential evaluation, its role in judging candidates cannot be taken at face value. We show that both economic evaluations and character judgments are highly politicized. The findings indicate that those protesting Clinton's character turned almost exclusively to Bush. Those protesting Bush's economic record turned to both Perot and Clinton. Still, the economy did not trump character. The troubles of both major party candidates fueled a strong protest vote that contributed to Perot's strong showing.     

Efficient allocation and unanimous consent with incomplete demand disclosures?

The following hypothesis about behavior in collective economic decisions is proposed. Individuals disclose latent demands accurately provided that doing so results in no appreciable loss of opportunity for material gain. On the foundation of this behavioral hypothesis, the following procedure is suggested. A collective good intermediary (CGI) solicits reports about latent demand schedules from a sample whose replies will not appreciably affect their own cost-shares. The CGI uses their reports to estimate the statically efficient program size and tax-shares adequate to finance it. The CGI then presents a proposal to the entire pertinent population on a this-or-nothing basis. If approved nearly uanimously, the proposal is adopted. It is concluded that if a program is worth adopting, i.e., generates a positive, aggregate net benefit, complete disclosure by all will not be needed to finance it. Most participants may, therefore, not need to estimate, even for themselves, their maximum personal benefit. The task of setting cost-shares to attain nearly unanimous consent will be easier the greater the aggregate gain from the efficient choice.