试论20世纪俄罗斯哥萨克的复兴运动

哥萨克是俄罗斯历史上一个独特的现象。作为一个独特的军事团体，哥萨克形成于16世纪末，为沙皇俄国对外殖民扩张立下了汗马功劳。随着苏联的建立，哥萨克作为一个阶层被取消。20世纪末随着苏联的解体，哥萨克又开始复兴。哥萨克复兴运动并非偶然，也不是突发的历史现象，它是历史发展的必然结果，是时代的要求。哥萨克复兴主要是其文化复兴，...     

俄罗斯学者关于哥萨克学研究述评

哥萨克是俄国历史上一个独特的现象,一个重要的角色,无论在历史学、文学中,或是在其他学科研究中,哥萨克都是一个重要的研究对象。20世纪末,随着哥萨克复兴运动的兴起,"哥萨克学"也成为一种显学。自18世纪至今,俄罗斯学者关于哥萨克学的研究取得了丰硕的成果,他们主要研究了哥萨克的历史起源、社会发展与文化等,而且在不同时期研究的侧重点有所不同:俄国学者比较侧重于研究哥萨克历史起源和社会文化方面,苏联学者较多地研究了哥萨克的社会政治、哥萨克与革命的问题,而苏联解体后的俄罗斯学者的研究视野比较宽阔,研究得更加深入。     

试论沙皇政府对哥萨克政策的演变

俄国哥萨克自15世纪形成后，热爱自由、平等与享有自治权逐渐成为其鲜明特征。然而由于沙皇政府在不同时期对哥萨克所采取的政策有所变化，哥萨克逐渐从逃亡农民的组织转变成俄罗斯国家的一个军事阶层，从自由与平等的象征演变为沙皇专制驯服的工具。     

论普京外交思维的内在取向

俄罗斯总统普京自上台执政以后,以复兴俄罗斯为目标,在规划对外政策的同时,频频展开首脑外交,显示出了特有的"普京色彩".本文从俄罗斯的文化背景、国家实力以及地缘现实等方面分析了支配普京外交政策的强国意识和现实主义的内在取向,揭示了普京外交思维的特点和实质以及对中俄关系未来走向可能产生的影响.     

俄罗斯强势复兴及其战略影响

2006年,俄罗斯呈现出强势复兴势头,经济崛起势头强劲,治国理念进一步成熟,外交的自信心与独立性显著增强,军事力量继续提升.强势复兴使普京对俄的国际角色重新定位:在国际政治中,不仅要成为"全球议事日程"的"参与者",更要成为"制定者";在世界经济中,不再做"被剥削者",而要做"得利者";在对原苏联国家关系中,不再做"供养者",而要充当"主导者".俄罗斯复兴及其相应的战略调整对国际格局及中俄关系将产生重大影响.但俄罗斯复兴引起外部强烈反应,俄面临的国际环境未见明显好转.     

基于俄罗斯能源经济下的“能源陷阱”分析

依靠能源出口拉动经济增长作为俄罗斯的一项基本国策,虽历经叶利钦、普京、梅德韦杰夫三代政府更迭,但无论何人主政这项政策均得到了有效延续。在以能源经济为主要发展方式的政策引领下,俄罗斯大国复苏之路清晰而坚定。但是,随着能源经济在俄经济发展中所占比例日益加重,"能源陷阱"也逐步凸显。因此,在这种能源经济的引领下,俄罗斯是实现真正的国家复兴,还是削弱自身经济自主性、跌入"能源陷阱",进而彻底沦为资源型经济国家,仍是一个值得深入探讨的问题。     

俄罗斯实用主义气候政策探析

气候变化议题在今天的全球治理中居于核心地位。俄罗斯的气候政策对于全球气候变化合作的开展有着非常重要的影响。"气候实用主义"是当前俄罗斯气候政策选择的核心。本文分析了近年来俄罗斯"气候实用主义"的内涵特征、政策特点、选择动因以及造成的影响。本文指出价值观、经济发展模式以及国际体系中的地位是决定俄罗斯实用主义气候政策选择的三个关键变量。这些变量通过观念、利益和身份的路径影响了俄罗斯气候政策的理念框架、国内偏好以及国际合作参与。对于气候变化起源的"怀疑论"、对碳氢能源企业的重点保护,通过气候政策对内增强治理合法性,吸引投资和技术以缓解美欧制裁是当前俄政府实用主义气候政策的突出特点。俄罗斯的这种气候政策为国际气候变化合作的加强提供了新动力,也为中俄区域合作开辟了新领域。但却难以弥合俄罗斯与美欧在气候变化问题上的根本分歧,也不会对俄罗斯依赖能源经济的发展模式造成实质影响。     

俄罗斯民族意识：历史与现状

俄罗斯民族意识是以东正教精神为核心的俄罗斯民族价值观,是俄罗斯国家要实现的社会理想。萌动期的俄罗斯民族意识是第三罗马帝国理想,19世纪俄罗斯民族意识是以官方民族发展政策为基础的斯拉夫派民族主义思想,当代俄罗斯民族意识是坚持民族特色的复兴道路。俄罗斯民族意识在发展中存在着自我反对、抽象化、理想化的问题,现今也面临着一定困境,但是它对俄罗斯国家的未来发展具有深远的意义。     

俄罗斯文化战略评析

以《2030年前俄罗斯联邦国家文化政策战略》的出台为标志,俄罗斯形成了明确的国家文化战略。本文从多方面论述了俄罗斯文化安全面临的挑战,并从俄罗斯文化复兴的理论导向和制度重建、语言文化战略、文化外交战略三个维度对俄罗斯文化战略的内容进行分析,认为出台文化战略是俄罗斯应对苏联解体的文化冲击和西方文化挑战的重要举措,而重塑国内文化环境和扩大俄罗斯文化国际影响力是俄罗斯文化战略的根本目标。     

中亚五国民族关系问题

本文主要论述了中亚国家独立后复杂的民族结构和民族矛盾,即突出主体民族地位,与其他民族特别是俄罗斯人的矛盾,历史上遗传下来的跨界民族使中亚地区民族关系复杂化;中亚国家对民族政策的调整和变化,即奉行民族复兴政策,以巩固新独立国家的主权和统一;否定民族自决权,倡导文化多元化;强化"人权和公民权",淡化民族观念;反对极端民族主义,建立和谐民族关系;采取措施缓和与俄罗斯人的矛盾;恪守历史形成的边界,维护中亚国家稳定与民族关系和谐.文章还论述了中亚与中国西北地区的跨界民族问题.     

Democratization in clan-based societies: explaining the Mongolian anomaly

Mongolia is a long-standing democratic anomaly – a democracy in a clan-based society – that is rarely discussed in research. This article addresses the question, why did Mongolia and the Central Asian countries embark upon markedly different regime trajectories following 70 years of Soviet rule? I argue that the prospects of democracy were shaped by a complex relationship between clan-based traditional authority structures, social relations based on nomadism and the style of Soviet rule. In Mongolia, Soviet authorities carefully enforced collectivization across kin groups and provided all necessary public goods to citizens, effectively dismantling clan-based authority structures. This process unintendedly fortified nomadic social relations that enabled re-emergent elements of opposition and forces in civil society to fill the void of authority generated by the Soviet collapse and to use this counterweight to state power to push for competitive politics. In contrast, the Soviet authorities’ “divide and rule” with clans in Kyrgyzstan reproduced clans that easily took on a dominant role on the eve of the Soviet breakdown and filled the void of authority by placing themselves at the apex of political power providing welfare services and political order. This placed Kyrgyzstan on the path to a post-communist non-democracy.     

俄乌克里米亚争端及其原因浅析

1954年,为纪念乌克兰与俄罗斯合并300周年,苏联最高苏维埃主席团决定将克里米亚作为“礼物”赠送给乌克兰,以示俄乌之间的亲密关系。但这一决定,却为后来双方的争吵埋下了祸根。苏联解体后,克里米亚争端伴随着俄乌之间一系列冲突的发生很快浮出水面,成为90年代初困扰俄乌关系发展的一大障碍。经过多回合的较量、妥协与各种力量的分化组合,克里米亚争端在1997年基本得到了解决,也给我们留下了一些值得思考的问题和启示。     

再论《奉俄协定》

《奉俄协定》是苏联政府为了落实其在《中苏协定》中关于共管中东铁路权益,与以张作霖为首的奉系集团所签订的协定.该协定的签署不仅开了苏联与中国地方当局订立协约的先河,同时对中苏关系乃至整个远东地区形势的发展产生了重大影响.奉直两个军阀集团之间的关系走向直接影响了奉苏交涉谈判进度和《奉俄协定》的签署,但该协定作为主权国与地方当局签订的协约有违于国际法的规定.     

Making a Cold War in the Near East: Turkey and the Origins of the Cold War, 1945–1947

During the post-war negotiations in the years of 1945 and 1946, the Soviets launched a bitter war of nerves against Turkey in order to establish a military base in Istanbul and share control of the Straits. It was crucial for Britain that the USSR be prevented from gaining any influence in Turkey. However, as Britain was in no position to support Turkey financially, American authorities encouraged by London and Ankara took over the responsibility for Turkey. This articles examines the Great Powers rivalry over Turkey and Turkey’s response to it. It argues that regional factors other than US–Soviet confrontation, such as Turkey’s security search against the Soviets, also played a crucial part in starting the Cold War in the Near East.     

20年后俄罗斯各派人士论苏联八一九事件

八一九事件20周年之际,俄罗斯官方没有采取特别举动,而主流媒体则以各种方式评述这一事件。20年过去了,各界人士对这一事件的性质大致有三种评价:政变、上层权力之争、挽救苏联之举。关于国家紧急状态委员会行动失败的原因,观点各异,但基本上认为,一方面,国家紧急状态委员会组织不力,意志软弱,行动不果断;另一方面,当时的客观形势不利,其行动被民主派所利用。国家紧急状态委员会行动的失败使苏联解体的进程变得不可逆转。各派人士对八一九事件的看法有助于研究苏联解体的原因,当事人尤其是共产党人的反思为今天仍执政的共产党提供了启示。     

苏联民族联邦制浅析

民族联邦制是苏联的国家结构形式,它在社会基础、制度资源方面存在先天不足并与联邦制的逻辑内涵存在抵触。由于苏联党政领导人在民族问题上的错误政策和行为,民族联邦制失去本来的合法化基础。苏联共产党的意识形态成为民族联邦制和整个政治体制的合法化基础。民族联邦制的异化成为苏联解体的重要原因之一。     

A Soviet Eye on France from the rue de Grenelle in Paris, 1924-1940

The present article is about Soviet perceptions of French politics and society as reported by the five Soviet ambassadors in Paris between 1924 and 1940, and about how their reports influenced Soviet policy making in Moscow. This article is based largely upon unpublished documents from the Soviet foreign policy archives in Moscow (AVPRF), specifically opened to researchers in the 1990s. It contends that these Soviet ambassadors established effective relationships with French counterparts and that they were pragmatic, non-ideological realists trying unsuccessfully to improve Soviet relations with France. The narrative is about the failure of these efforts over a period of sixteen years and ultimately about the failure of the Soviet Union and France to form anti-Nazi alliance during the 1930s.     

A Soviet Eye on France from the rue de Grenelle in Paris, 1924–1940

The present article is about Soviet perceptions of French politics and society as reported by the five Soviet ambassadors in Paris between 1924 and 1940, and about how their reports influenced Soviet policy making in Moscow. This article is based largely upon unpublished documents from the Soviet foreign policy archives in Moscow (AVPRF), specifically opened to researchers in the 1990s. It contends that these Soviet ambassadors established effective relationships with French counterparts and that they were pragmatic, non-ideological realists trying unsuccessfully to improve Soviet relations with France. The narrative is about the failure of these efforts over a period of sixteen years and ultimately about the failure of the Soviet Union and France to form anti-Nazi alliance during the 1930s.     

The 1945 Ethridge Mission to Bulgaria and Romania and the Origins of the Cold War in the Balkans

In autumn 1945, US Secretary of State James Byrnes deadlocked with Soviet Foreign Minister Viacheslav Molotov over the governments of Bulgaria and Romania. To escape, Byrnes dispatched Mark Ethridge, a liberal newspaperman, on a fact-finding mission. Contrary to Byrnes' hopes, Ethridge found conditions as bad as reported, and went to Moscow to convince the Soviet government to moderate Communist behavior. Ethridge's damning report on political repression had little effect on Byrnes, who grabbed a face-saving Soviet offer. President Harry Truman, though, read Ethridge's report and became convinced of the failure of Byrnes' soft-line and the need to stand up to the Soviet Union.     

Press content as a key to a country's alignment: The case of Ethiopia

This article examines the news content of an Ethiopian government‐run newspaper over a period of 20 years to determine how closely the present government is aligned with the Soviet Union. There are two schools of though among foreign policy scholars. Regionalists believe Ethiopia is nonaligned. They argue that since the country follows the tenants of African socialism, its international politics are shaped by indigenous factors such as nationalism and local economic and security needs, rather than by Soviet or U.S. influence. Globalists, on the other hand, believe Ethiopia belongs to the Soviet camp and is dependent on the Soviet Union. A review of a government‐run newspaper in two ten‐year periods before and after the takeover by Mengistu Haile Mariam found a dramatic shift in the nature of coverage. Under Emperor Haile Selassie before the ovethrow, the paper printed predominantly pro‐United States and anti‐Soviet news. But under Mengistu, the same paper printed vastly pro‐Soviet and anti‐United States news, and absolutely no anti‐Soviet news. These findings support the globalist view.