以色列政坛重新洗牌

2005年注定会成为以色列历史上乃至中东和平进程中的关键一年.在单边行动计划于8月在争议声中如期实施,结束了以色列对加沙38年的军事占领后,岁末的以色列政坛风云乍起,乱象丛生."少壮派"佩雷茨一举击败德高望重的政坛元老佩雷斯,出任工党新主席,随即率工党退出沙龙联合政府,引发连环政治"地震".     

A decade of decline: a longitudinal look at big city and big county strategies to cope with declining revenues

Many local governments have now endured a decade of fiscal decline due to periodic reductions in external funding (federal and state and slowdowns in the rate of growth of the state and local government sector. This research examines the extent to which six large jurisdictions (three cities, three counties) under fiscal duress avoided political conflict and prevented further fragmentation of their authority between 1978 and 1987. The results showed that local officials generally chose retrenchment strategies (revenue, expenditure, and borrowing) with the least anticipated political opposition; but where hard choices had to be made (personnel reductions), they were made without hesitation. The timing of politically unpopular choices to coincide with downward trends in the private sector reduced the level of political fallout, even in heavily unionized, socioeconomically diverse communities. The results also showed that local officials strongly endorsed, rather than opposed, strategies that further fragmented their authority (privatization, intergovernmental cooperative agreements), because these approaches produce significant personnel and capital savings in the short term. Finally, the results indicated that the long-term cumulative effects of short-term decremental decisionmaking on the quality of life (as measured by drops in bond ratings) were negative in only one-third of the jurisdictions.     

The media and suicide: a cautionary view

There is now unequivocal statistical evidence of an association between some media portrayals of suicide and further subsequent suicide. However, it is a weak association, and it is probably of far less importance than our need to address basic principles of good mental health management. Rather than prescribe to the media how to report suicide, its potentially positive effects should be addressed.     

Reaching suicidal people with media campaigns: new challenges for a new century

Five variables were investigated in the evaluation of Suicide Prevention Weeks (SPW) held in 1999, 2000, and 2001 in Québec, Canada: exposure to the campaign, previous suicide ideation, knowledge, attitudes, and intentions. After the year 2000 campaign, a telephone survey conducted on a representative sample of 1020 men revealed that only those actually exposed to the SPW had gained more knowledge of suicide facts and resources. However, the SPW did not influence attitudes or intentions to seek help. Results are not surprising, considering the low intensity of the campaign, especially in the media. Campaigns aimed at changing suicidal behaviors must be intensive.     

韩国:小国大外交

韩国,领土面积9.96万平方公里,约占中国的1/100,只相当于广东省的一半.人口4800万,约为中国的1/28.而且,由于地缘政治形势独特,韩国所处的朝鲜半岛是大国利益的交汇点.在大国间周旋,实现左右逢源,最大限度地维护国家利益,是韩国历届政府的重大外交课题.2003年卢武铉执政以来,立足于韩国的国家利益,积极调整对美、日、中、俄的外交政策,推行"大外交",以维护东北亚地区的安全与稳定,在国际舞台上的作用日益凸显,也为自身发展赢得和平的国际环境.     

Iran and Terrorism: The Transatlantic Responses

Since 1979 the United States and several European countries have accused the Islamic Republic of Iran of supporting terrorism. This article does not seek to examine the validity of these accusations. Rather, it analyzes how Washington and Brussels have sought to change Tehran's policy. Special attention is given to organizations such as Hizbollah, Hamas, Jihad, and Mujahideen-e Khalq. In addition, Ayatollah Khomeini's Fatwa against Salman Rushdie, the Mykonos trial, and the Flatow Amendment are discussed. The article highlights the differences between the American and European approaches toward Iran and suggests that more cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic is needed.     

The carcass of dead policies: lessons for Obama in dealing with Iran

The United States has spent 30 years clinging to variations of the same policy towards Iran, to no avail. ‘Doing the right thing’ has proved perplexing, complicated and, ultimately, elusive. In 1979, the United States struggled to come to terms with Iran's transformation from consort to adversary. Washington had difficulty fitting Iran into the hierarchy of regional and international priorities, often viewing it through the prism of its other regional concerns. Administration tensions, varying levels of dysfunction and wider governmental conflict also affected policy formulation and execution by producing different agendas, and, occasionally, a range of different assessments of US policy. Underpinning and exacerbating these problems was the fact that policymakers were doing a jigsaw with missing pieces. Two types of intelligence failures, missing and poor information and flawed interpretation, proved debilitating. A further complication was the fact that the United States and Iran engaged in a dialogue of the duff for nearly 30 years. Besides not hearing each other (and when they did, regularly misunderstanding the message), bad timing and the intervention of events conspired repeatedly to frustrate initiatives and confound a breakthrough. This case-study-based analysis of policymaking and policy explores why successive administrations have failed to ‘park Iran in a better place’ and offers a set of lessons for the Obama administration as it confronts this unique ‘non-relationship’.