2000年以来俄罗斯经济结构的变化及其发展趋势

俄罗斯2020年发展战略实质是要彻底调整经济结构,转向创新发展模式.本文对俄罗斯现有经济结构变化的消极趋势和积极趋势进行了分析,对2020年发展战略的目标、手段和措施进行了客观评述.     

经济国际化与苏东经济体系的瓦解

转轨初期,俄罗斯把美国的自由市场经济确立为其经济体制改革的目标模式。于是,支撑美国自由市场经济模式的新自由主义理论便自然而然地充当了俄罗斯经济转轨的指导思想。然而,在新自由主义理论(特别是现代货币主义)基础上形成的“休克疗法”改革方案并没有使俄罗斯人看到文明的现代市场经济,继盖达尔之后的几届政府都不同程度地对休克疗法进行了反思,但政府危机使经济转轨模式无法根本调整。普京上台以后,提出了自己的治国理念的“富民强国”的经济思想,并通过将市场经济、民主原则与俄罗斯现实相结合的“第三条路”来推行他的政策主张,产生了积极的效果。     

浅论普京的经济思想与经济政策

转轨初期,俄罗斯把美国的自由市场经济确立为其经济体制改革的目标模式。于是,支撑美国自由市场经济模式的新自由主义理论便自然而然地充当了俄罗斯经济转轨的指导思想。然而,在新自由主义理论(特别是现代货币主义)基础上形成的“休克疗法”改革方案并没有使俄罗斯人看到文明的现代市场经济,反倒“把国民经济搞休克了,把国家搞休克了,把人民搞休克了”。继盖达尔之后的几届政府都不同程度地对休克疗法进行了反思,但政府危机使经济转轨模式无法根本调整。普京上台以后,提出了自己的治国理念的“富民强国”的经济思想,并通过走将市场经济、民主原则与俄罗斯现实相结合的“第三条路”来推行他的政策主张。新总统的政策措施已开始发挥作用,而且产生了积极的效果。     

基于转轨视角的俄罗斯国家创新战略的演进与趋势

俄罗斯经济转轨进入深化阶段后,保持经济的持续稳定增长是解决各种社会问题的基础和前提.选择适宜的国家创新战略对经济的持续稳定增长和国家整体竞争力的提升无疑起着至关重要的作用.本文分析了对经济转轨以来俄罗斯技术创新战略演进的路径的,从经济转轨初期的"培植战略"、"引进战略"、"转让战略"到进入稳定增长阶段后的惯性发展模式、出口发展模式和投资发展模式的转变.揭示其技术创新战略演进的内在逻辑和动力,即俄罗斯创新战略的相互融合与渗透、创新战略之间的互补性与递进性、与国家整体经济发展战略的高度统一.阐述俄罗斯国家整体创新跨越战略的实施路径选择,并提出对我国有益的借鉴和启示.     

俄罗斯金融部门对俄罗斯经济增长作用研究

解释俄罗斯经济强劲增长的原因,探讨未来俄罗斯经济的走向一直是俄罗斯经济研究的热点和难点问题.本文通过对俄罗斯经济现状和增长原因的分析,梳理了影响俄罗斯未来经济发展的有利和不利因素,总结了俄罗斯金融服务业发展现状以及开放水平,认为俄罗斯金融体系的完善和服务水平的深化,将对俄罗斯经济长期增长起到至关重要的作用.     

作为中亚转型国家参考模式的发展型政权

苏联解体20年后,几乎所有的前共产主义国家都程度不同地完成了从计划经济向市场经济的转型.然而,仍然有些转型国家在这一进程中落在后面,其中就有前苏联的5个中亚加盟共和国.对于这些既不同于俄罗斯和东欧,更不同于西方发达国家的国家来说,实现转型没有明显的参照模式.本文的目的就是分析在东亚地区取得成功的"发展型政权"是否也能够为中亚经济体的发展提供一个参考模式.     

俄罗斯国防工业体转型路径及效用分析

俄罗斯国防工业体从前苏联时期的斯大林模式向市场导向的转型,经历了漫长而艰辛的历程.尤其是20世纪90年代的军转民实践,充满了曲折和困难,短期内削弱了其经济实力.但俄罗斯也逐渐明确了国防工业体进一步转型的方向,为推动其经济结构的进一步调整以及经济的持续发展奠定了基础.本文着重从理论上分析俄罗斯国防工业体转型的路径,并深入探讨其对经济发展的巨大影响.     

俄罗斯经济转轨中金融体系构建的目标模式与路径选择

构建科学规范的金融体系对促进经济长期稳定发展具有十分重要的作用,对经济转型国家更是如此。鉴于中俄都是从高度集中的计划经济体制向市场经济制度转轨的国家,本文试图对俄罗斯金融体系构建的目标模式及路径选择进行分析,并对其金融体系改革绩效进行评价,以期为我国进一步深化金融体制改革提供借鉴。     

危机中的俄罗斯:一个超级能源大国的终结

叶利钦时期俄罗斯的掠夺式资本主义导致了后苏联时期俄罗斯经济转型的灾难性后果。普京当政后对这一政策进行了大幅修正,转而奉行传统俄罗斯式的反市场经济模式。强力部门人士进入权力核心,国家控制取代市场运营成为主要战略。重组能源部门并借此巩固新的政治权力基础,进而恢复俄罗斯超级大国地位,构成了普京当局的优先政策。俄罗斯经济在普京作为俄罗斯总统任内的强势复苏似乎标志着俄构建能源超级大国的战略进展顺利,但金融危机的冲击暴露了现存俄罗斯制度的危险性。俄已经错过了调整经济结构的宝贵机会,克里姆林宫将能源同时作为财富增长和外交杠杆的时代已经结束。在这一背景下,梅普共治体制的改革以及经济政策的调整也许将成为可能。但历史的惯性和重负经常使俄在经历混乱失序后回归原点。俄罗斯市场经济的转型必将是一个漫长的过程。     

构建公民社会——普京的思想与实践

公民社会作为市场经济和民主制度的基础,是西方用来衡量一个国家民主与否的标准之一。普京执政以后,提出要构建俄罗斯的公民社会,并采取了一系列措施,形成了不同于西方的独特的自上而下的发展模式。本文以西方市民社会理论为依据,对普京构建俄罗斯公民社会的思想理论、方式方法和存在的问题进行了研究,分析了西方和俄罗斯对于公民社会在内涵以及概念上的不同认识,并对俄罗斯公民社会的发展提出了自己的见解。     

The Russian Economy in 2008: Testing the "Market Economy"

In Russia, the market system that arose out of the financial crisis of a decade earlier faced its first major challenge in the second half of 2008. The Russian response to this crisis provides a defining event for the Russian market economy. Drawing on macroeconomic statistics and newspaper coverage, the article uses the crisis as a lens for focusing on the nature of the Russian economy in 2008, and on the defining characteristics behind its response to the crisis. The beginnings of a systematic response that tells us much about the state of the Russian economy in 2008 is already evident.     

俄罗斯经济的转折点与“俄罗斯病”

俄罗斯经济一度在油价的暴涨中实现了高增长,但在2008年油价暴跌之后,俄面临着经济增长的转折点。虽说俄罗斯的经济转型伴随着一系列的市场经济结构改革,但还是对于油价变动反应过度。俄受油价变动摆布的资源依赖型经济可统称为"俄罗斯病"。这其实是一种"石油诅咒"综合症,但它不同于"荷兰病"。虽然俄罗斯历经石油价格高涨→实际汇率升值→进口扩大的发展路径,却没有出现GDP增长递减和制造业增长低迷的现象。因为俄国内市场大于荷兰,而且制造业发展缓慢。我们不能期待出现治愈"俄罗斯病"的特效药和特需,而有效利用资源利益来推动其经济发展是俄罗斯的现实选择。俄罗斯以"推翻世界史"的速度实现了开放的市场经济,但是,在重构文化背景和制造业基础之后再来发展经济恐怕还需时日。     

Contemporary Russian conservatism

This article analyzes contemporary Russian conservatism through the prism of ideational and positionist ideological perspectives. The author argues that Russian conservatism proposes a distinct value package through its anthropocentric nature, its plans for modernization of Russia, and its future outlook that must rest on the best elements of tradition. The author compares these trends with the Western conservative tradition, making distinct parallels between the two strands of conservative thought. The author also explores the attitude of Russian conservatism toward the post-modern world. This is intrinsically linked to the discussion of Russia's attempts to develop a political and ideational alternative to the West, introduce a distinct model for the architecture of international relations, and find Russia's position in the global world.     

Russia's Policy Towards OPEC

Russia and OPEC are major oil producers. Considering the growing energy demand for the global economy, both parties are consistently increasing their exports of hydrocarbons and developing new supply capacities. Meanwhile, both parties have a mutual interest in creating a stable market by cooperating. However, the likelihood of Russian cooperation with OPEC is largely a function of oil prices and the political relations between Russia and OPEC countries. The following article deals with the relations between Russia and OPEC since the collapse of the USSR to the economic crisis in 2008. The author examines the political, cultural and economic conflicts between the two parties and their different attitudes toward the oil market in order to assess their chance to fully cooperate in the long term.     

The Mafiya and the New Russia

The rise of the Russian mafiya , a distinctive form of organised crime, reflects more than just the temporary dislocations and uncertainties of the country's transition from a Soviet state to a free market democracy. Rooted in Russian tradition and Soviet practice, it is also a formidable obstacle to this evolution. This has serious implications for the new Russian polity: weakening central authority, diluting the state's monopoly of coercion, discrediting the market economy and ultimately usurping and distorting the very functions of the state. Any solution will have to come not from tougher policing (which itself would threaten a return to authoritarianism) but from a wider political and cultural response.     

The Putin Thesis and Russian Energy Policy

A specialist on Russian politics and society analyzes Russian President Vladimir Putin's academic work on mineral resources in the Russian economy. Mr. Putin defended a kandidat dissertation in economics and subsequently published an article outlining his view of the appropriate role of the Russian state, and of vertically integrated financial-industrial groups, in the mineral resource sector, and particularly in the oil and gas industry. Connections are drawn between the views expressed in Mr. Putin's publications and policy during his second presidential term.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on Russia's Agriculture

The article analyzes the impact of WTO accession on Russia's agricultural sector. Three aspects of WTO rules that will affect Russian agriculture are examined: (1) financial support from the Russian government, (2) market access for foreign imports, and (3) market access for Russia's food exports. Addressing the question of positive and negative impacts on Russia's agricultural sector, the article asks if a pessimistic view that sees primarily negative consequences as a result of accession is justified. Claims made by skeptics who are dismissive of the impact WTO entry will have on Russian agriculture are also considered.     

Contemporary Russian liberalism

This article analyzes contemporary Russian liberalism through the prism of competing trends of moderate pluralist and monistic radical thought. The author focuses particularly on the pluralist trend, less well known in the West, arguing that its prospects are more promising over the long term. Ideological and tactical differences within the liberal camp in Russia are compared with those in the West, both for the purpose of emphasizing that such differences are not unique to Russia and to show the connections between Russian and Western strands of liberal political thought.