Armed Groups as Political Parties and Their Role in Electoral Politics: The Case of Hizballah

In recent decades, armed groups have shown an increased interest in creating political parties to take part in institutional politics. By using these political wings to participate in elections and win public office, some of them have gained enormous political power. However, despite the important real-world implications of this trend, the existing literature on the topic is still underdeveloped. This article contributes to a better understanding of this subject by examining the factors that motivate armed groups to set up a political wing and compete in elections and by assessing how political participation affects an armed group's strategic outlook. The hypotheses on political wing formation and development are tested by analyzing the decision-making patterns of Hizballah. The findings suggest that the political involvement of armed groups does not follow a linear development process from armed to political organization, but instead assumes cyclical patterns: political accommodation and armed struggle are chosen in turn in response to shifts in the relation and the internal balance of power between a given group's political and armed wings.     

2010年：党的对外工作的亮点和特点——中共中央对外联络部八位地区局局长纵横谈

2010年,中共中央对外联络部作为党的对外工作的职能部门,坚持以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,准确把握党和国家的工作中心和国家总体外交需要,在进一步完善工作格局、丰富交流渠道、拓宽业务领域、深化交往内涵的同时,不断提高党的对外交往能力,积极有所作为,     

Criminality and Armed Groups: A Comparative Study of FARC and Paramilitary Groups in Colombia

Terrorist groups and armed insurgents regularly exploit illicit markets to launder money, traffic illegal goods, and purchase arms. In such an environment, the line between armed political organizations and criminal groups appears to break down. However, through a comparative study of paramilitary groups and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) in Colombia, this article finds that group goals, the political environment, and membership strongly influence the types of criminal activities a given armed groups undertakes. Thus, the membership and political agenda of sub-state armed groups not only distinguishes them from criminal groups—organized for and motivated by economic gain—but also shapes their criminal behavior.     

Terrorism Targeting Industrial Chemical Facilities: Strategic Motivations and the Implications for U.S. Security

Policy to reduce the threat of a terrorist attack against industrial chemical facilities—critical infrastructure with potential to cause mass casualties—is being driven by incomplete and, in some cases, incorrect assumptions. This article chronicles incidents by non-state actors directed at the chemical industry and explores the strategic considerations prompting groups to target the industry. By incorporating motivations for targeting infrastructure a more robust, comprehensive risk assessment is realized. Analysis challenging the “insider” threat paradigm and recommendations to ameliorate the potential effects are also presented. These are found to differ substantially from the leading policy measures currently advocated.     

The Centrality of Non-traditional Groups for Security in the Globalized Era: The Case of Children

The globalized security situation characterized by transnational threats and international interventionism in "new wars," connect non traditional local actors and traditional global actors to one another in unprecedented ways. We argue that children in particular need to be highlighted because they are highly pertinent to the globalized security situation, yet they make up one of the few agents that have remained non-politicized in the eyes of the scholarly community. The article suggests a framework of analysis that can generate analyses on security of traditional as well as non-traditional agents. Placing non-traditional groups in the center of attention serves to mirror the complexities of the current security situation better.     

The Tottenham Ayatollah and The Hook-Handed Cleric: An Examination of All Their Jihadi Children

Omar Bakri Mohammed (the Tottenham Ayatollah) and Abu Hamza al-Masri (the hook-handed cleric) are two of the more infamous figures to emerge from what critics called “Londonistan.” However, they should be remembered not only for their rhetoric and appearance, but also for the fact that their respective organizations, Bakri's Al Muhajiroun, and Hamza's Supporters of Shariah based at the Finsbury Park Mosque, have been the connective thread through most Islamist terrorist plots that have emanated from the United Kingdom. This article maps out the network of terrorist plots in the United Kingdom and abroad that appears to have emanated from the networks around these two men with a view to understanding better how the connections remained unclear for so long and how understanding of the networks evolved over time.     

当代拉美政治思潮的基础、影响及实施前景

思潮是社会存在的产物,是一定时期内反映一定阶级、阶层的要求,得到广泛传播并对社会生活产生一定影响和作用的思想倾向、思想潮流.     

Czech and Slovak Relations with China: Contenders for China's Favour

This study examines the prospects for new European Union (EU) member countries in pursuing their foreign policy objectives in relations with China. Both the Czech Republic and Slovakia cherished an idea of making China an alternative economic partner. However, after 1989, China perceived these states as minor, almost unimportant partners, regardless of their efforts. Their profile was raised by EU accession but there was little change in their strength in terms of bilateral relations with China. The article investigates the failures and partial successes of the Czech and Slovak relationships with China, comparing their different approaches to the balance between focusing on political and human rights issues and the pursuit of economic and business interests.     

哥伦比亚政府反毒反恐战略及其对南美邻国影响—解析“哥伦比亚计划”

从20世纪70年代开始,哥伦比亚的三大武装组织—准军事组织（“哥伦比亚联合自卫军”）、游击队（主要包括“哥伦比亚革命武装力量”和“哥伦比亚民族解放军”）和政府军—之间的对抗不断加剧。同一时期,哥伦比亚还成为世界上最大的非法古柯作物种植区和可卡因产地,毒品组织与以上三大武装的联系和矛盾日益复杂。     

传播友谊，促进合作，共创未来——中共中央政治局委员、北京市委书记刘淇访问印度尼西亚、马来西亚纪行

应印度尼西亚民主党、马来西亚马来民族统一机构（下称“巫统”）的邀请,中共中央政治局委员、北京市委书记刘淇率中共代表团于2009年11月28日—12月4日访问了上述两国。陪同刘淇同志出访的有中联部副部长李进军,北京市委常委、北京市公安局局长马振川,北京市副市长丁向阳等。日前,胡锦涛主席成功访马并与印尼总统苏希洛在APEC领导人非正式会议期间会见,印尼、马加强与中国合作的愿望更为强烈。值此刘淇同志一行出访,受到了印尼、马来西亚两国各界的高度重视和热烈欢迎。     

Saddam Hussein: Political Psychological Profiling Results Relevant to His Possession,Use, and Possible Transfer of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) to Terrorist Groups

This article applies psychological profiling data from the speeches and interviews of Saddam Hussein during the 1990 Gulf Crisis to many of the recent questions about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) policies and intentions that were pivotal to the decision to wage war in Iraq. Content analysis of Hussein's verbal comments prior to the invasion of Kuwait and after the introduction of coalition forces into Saudi Arabia were used to assess his psychological state, political attitudes, and decision-making processes under stress. The findings were then applied to the recent issues of Iraqi WMD possession, use, and possible transfer to terrorist groups. The results of this political psychological assessment of Hussein indicated that prior to his removal by coalition forces it was extremely unlikely that he had significantly reduced what he perceived to be Iraq's WMD capabilities. Analysis of Hussein's political psychology, sensitivity to threats, propensity for violent reactions, and tendency to miscalculate indicated that he had a very low threshold for WMD use and may not have waited to be attacked before using these weapons. The results also indicated that the same characteristics that made Hussein an extremely likely candidate for WMD use made it unlikely that he would transfer WMD assets to a terrorist group not under his direct control. Although examination of Hussein's decision making under stress indicated that the invasion would increase the likelihood of Iraqi WMD use, it was not seen as increasing the odds of Iraqi transfer of WMD to terrorist groups. However, the results also indicated the potential for Hussein to suffer from a significant series of cognitive biases with direct impact on his decision making regarding WMD, as well as his ability to use these weapons. Support was also noted for his potential to experience gaps in reality testing and immobilizing anxiety should the military struggle turn desperate for Iraq and for him personally. The implications for the characterization of leaders likely to use WMD were also examined.­     

The Bombing of Omagh, 15 August 1998: The Bombers,Their Tactics,Strategy, and Purpose Behind the Incident

The purpose of this article is to review the above incident: what happened, how it happened and who did it and why. Also, to place it in the context of the current "peace process," Irish history and the history of Irish Republican violence. In looking at who carried out the bombing there is also an attempt to explain the split between the Provisional and Real IRA, their motives and ideas, the complex relationship between the two and what they hope to achieve. This is then followed by an analysis of the actual bombing, the tactics involved in carrying it out and what went wrong. And finally to look at the after effects of the bombing. In many ways the bombing was not as unusual as portrayed by the media, just a continuation of what had been happening for the last 30 years; thus, it is instructive in itself as an "ideal" terrorist operation.     

The carcass of dead policies: lessons for Obama in dealing with Iran

The United States has spent 30 years clinging to variations of the same policy towards Iran, to no avail. ‘Doing the right thing’ has proved perplexing, complicated and, ultimately, elusive. In 1979, the United States struggled to come to terms with Iran's transformation from consort to adversary. Washington had difficulty fitting Iran into the hierarchy of regional and international priorities, often viewing it through the prism of its other regional concerns. Administration tensions, varying levels of dysfunction and wider governmental conflict also affected policy formulation and execution by producing different agendas, and, occasionally, a range of different assessments of US policy. Underpinning and exacerbating these problems was the fact that policymakers were doing a jigsaw with missing pieces. Two types of intelligence failures, missing and poor information and flawed interpretation, proved debilitating. A further complication was the fact that the United States and Iran engaged in a dialogue of the duff for nearly 30 years. Besides not hearing each other (and when they did, regularly misunderstanding the message), bad timing and the intervention of events conspired repeatedly to frustrate initiatives and confound a breakthrough. This case-study-based analysis of policymaking and policy explores why successive administrations have failed to ‘park Iran in a better place’ and offers a set of lessons for the Obama administration as it confronts this unique ‘non-relationship’.     

Terrorism: Review of 1988 and prospects for 1989

This article is the first to explore the Israel Defense Forces's official statistical data on Palestinian terrorism toward Israeli targets during the al-Aqsa intifada 2000–2004. Focusing the analysis on the logic of terrorist target choice, the article identifies two separate results: First, an unambiguous difference in the form of the attacks contingent on whether they are carried out in the state of Israel or in the Occupied Territories. Second, based on the same distinction, the analysis points out how the attacks are targeted toward distinctively different categories of the Israeli populace. Causes of the results are discussed.