The Lebanese Hizballah and Israeli Counterterrorism

This article examines Israel's attempts to weaken and defeat the Lebanese Hizballah. It reviews Hizballah's rise after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hizballah's successful effort to force Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000, the 2006 war, and Israeli attempts to deter Hizballah. The article argues that Israel has largely failed to defeat Hizballah militarily and politically. Israel's experience offers lessons for how terrorist groups learn, the effectiveness of terrorist attrition strategies against casualty-sensitivity states, the difficulties in coercing terrorist groups, and the importance of an information strategy. Finally, Israel's clash with Hizballah indicates the importance of thinking of groups that are large and multi-faceted from a counterinsurgency paradigm.     

Counterterrorism Strategy in the Sahel

The GSPC—more recently titled Al Qaeda in the Maghreb—has maintained a small but significant level of terrorist unrest in the countries of the Sahel for a number of years. Although GSPC activities have been rather small-scale, they have added to the host of other security failures plaguing the region. The United State has begun devoting more attention to the regional security gaps and has started to implement an overall strategy in response. The more broadly-based approaches to dealing with security, economic, and political problems show promise, but only if the United States and regional countries maintain their focus on the long term.     

Instrumentalizing Counterterrorism for Regime Consolidation in Putin's Russia

Since the late 1990s, Russia has been among the countries most painfully affected by terrorism and President Putin has shown little doubt and even much enthusiasm in joining the U.S.-led "war" against terrorism. Intertwined as they are, counterterrorism and Chechnya are still significantly different matters in Russian security policy, and this article aims at examining how the struggle against terrorism shapes essential features of Russia's foreign and domestic policies during Putin's first presidency. Internally, the struggle against terrorism provides for a sufficient mobilization of the dysfunctional society around the "mutant" regime that has consolidated its control over mid-term political agenda. Internationally, high-profile counterterrorism strategy has helped Russia to secure for itself a more prominent role than the sheer size of its "assets" would justify. This war is fundamentally not about victory; it is about many "collateral" benefits for the regime that Putin is presiding over.‐     

Failure and Disengagement in the Red Army Faction

This article examines the factors that have contributed to the end of the Red Army Faction (RAF), and places particular emphasis on the causes and characteristics of individual disengagement of RAF members from the armed struggle. It discusses the evolution, ideology, and decline of each of the three generations of the RAF. The article's contribution is twofold. First, by assessing both contextual- and individual-level factors that led to the group's demise, the article bridges two approaches to analyzing the demise of terrorist organizations—the literature on how terrorism ends and why individuals disengage from terrorism. Second, the article helps build a growing empirical body of work on the demise of terrorist groups that can be used to confirm, challenge, or refine existing hypotheses on how terrorism ends, while formulating new ones. The article concludes that different factors contributed to the decline of each subsequent generation of the RAF. Successful German police efforts played a critical role in thwarting the RAF's first generation. Lack of public support and recruits, due in large part to an escalation of terrorist violence, hastened the decline of the second generation of the group. The third generation suffered from serious interorganizational strife, exacerbated by a government initiative that offered to release those RAF members from prison who renounced terrorism.     

The European Union and Post-9/11 Counterterrorism: A Reappraisal

In spite of the hectic activity subsequent to the so-called month of transformation in the wake of 9/11, it is not to be taken for granted that the European Union is the right vehicle in Europe for the combating of terrorism. The lack of the EU's executive powers with respect to regulating the behavior of member states relative to a common threat such as terrorism, raises the fundamental question of whether the Union itself, as opposed to its constituent members, or an alternative multilateral forum, is an appropriate body for effectively confronting terrorism in Europe.     

A Social Network Analysis of Jemaah Islamiyah: The Applications to Counterterrorism and Intelligence

This article attempts to contribute to and advance the growing literature on social network analysis and terrorism studies, through a social network analysis of the Jemaah Islamiyah cell that was responsible for the Bali bombings in 2002. In doing so, the article endeavors to provide a potential framework for the intelligence analysis of terrorist cells. Such a framework will assist in (1) understanding the communication and structure of such cells and (2) assist in predicting the likely outcomes of terrorist cells when employed in real-time intelligence analysis.     

外交信使秘闻

信使是一个古老的职业,而在信息流通技术发达的今天,各国间的大部分机密信件和物品仍然是通过外交信使传送,他们是特殊的邮递员,在他们来回传送的邮件中埋藏着数不清的故事。最近,俄罗斯《总结》周刊载文披露了这个特殊的邮递职业许多鲜为人知的秘密。     

Trade,Development, and Nonproliferation: Multilevel Counterterrorism in Central Asia

This article was presented in its original form in October 2005 at the Conference on Central Asian Security in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. This article seeks to add to the discourse on counterterrorism by looking at the challenges posed by sub-state radicalism to development and regionalization. Specifically, adequate counterterror campaigns require addressing socioeconomic feeders of radicalism while simultaneously dealing with the threat of political violence itself. In terms of development, this means advocating increased trade volumes and export oriented growth while concurrently controlling for illicit trade (which often finances terrorist movements) and trade in strategic goods (which could serve to undermine the security of the state). The authors use the case study of Uzbekistan and Central Asian insecurity to illustrate the utility of customs modernization, border security, and export control legislation as integral components in wider counterterror campaigns. The study addresses circumstances specific to present day Central Asia but has wider implications in stymieing the relationship between “grey areas” and terrorist movements worldwide.     

Europol and EU Counterterrorism: International Security Actorness in the External Dimension

This article offers an analysis of Europol's security actorness in the external dimension of EU counterterrorism. While Europol has attracted some scholarly attention, not so much work has focused on the meaning of its international agreements in counterterrorism. This article aims to investigate the international actorness of Europol at the international level in relation to the fight against international terrorism. It offers original conceptual insights based on empirical case studies of international agreements: Europol agreements with U.S. law enforcement, as well as Europol agreements with countries in the European Neighbourhood policy.     

Ideology and Disengagement: A Case Study of Nationalists and Islamists in Chechnya

Abstract

Disengagement from militant groups has often been explained in individual terms such as battle fatigue or the desire to rejoin family and friends. We seek to examine empirically which other factors, beyond individual-level determinants, have influenced disengagement processes among militants belonging to different types of Chechen militant organisations. Drawing empirical insights from unique in-depth interviews with former members of the Chechen insurgency, their relatives, eyewitnesses to the Chechen wars and experts with first-hand knowledge of the researched phenomena, this study examines disengagement among jihadist and nationalist Chechen militants. Focusing on group-level factors, such as the capacity to resist external pressures, the use of violence, in-group social bonds and group cohesion, this article demonstrates that disengagement has been a less viable course of action for Chechen jihadists than for nationalist militants.     

国家外交形式的发展趋势

传统观念认为,外交是政府的专利,但是,随着民主建设进程的加快,各国政府的职能均出现了不同程度的转变,政府外交的权能也随着民主进程被各种外交形式所分摊.     

Convergence of Counterterrorism Policies: A Case Study of Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia

This article distinguishes the demand from the supply of counterterrorism following either a large-scale terrorist attack or campaign. On the demand side, terrorism shocks increase the willingness of civilians to sacrifice their liberties for security, thereby giving the government a mandate to augment defensive and proactive measures against the terrorists. The supply side differs greatly between domestic and transnational terrorism. Supply problems may plague countermeasures against transnational terrorism as at-risk nations act strategically. In particular, there is a strong proclivity for nations to overspend on defense and to underspend on proactive measures. These tendencies are explored using simple game theory. A country's sovereignty also bolsters the ability of targeted nations to address domestic terrorism with an appropriate mix of counter- terrorism measures.