Political violence in Ecuador and the AVC

Abstract

Since its return in 1979 Ecuador's civilian constitutional government has been marred by continuous political violence. The newest and most dangerous challenge to regime stability has surfaced over the past few years in the domestic terrorist organization, the ¡Alfaro Vive, Carajo! (AVC). Beginning as a small, student‐led subversive group in 1983, the AVC now appears in coordination with the neighboring Colombian M‐19 and Peruvian Sendero Luminoso guerrillas and in cooperation with regional narcotraficantes. Determined government efforts, supported by the United States, have failed decisively to uproot and destroy the AVC.     

The 2011 presidential election in Peru: a thorny moral and political dilemma

The 2011 presidential elections in Peru was the third one held in the post-Fujimori era. A perusal of the campaign's political dynamics reveals pervasive anti-democratic behaviours, attitudes and rhetoric on the part of key political actors, showcasing the degree to which Peru remains an unconsolidated, precarious democracy. The second round presented a moral and political dilemma insofar as two unsavoury candidates of highly dubious democratic credentials vied for the presidency: Ollanta Humala, a former army lieutenant burdened by accusations of human rights violations who, additionally, led or supported two military uprisings; and Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a convicted and jailed dictator who unabashedly touted the legacy of her father's authoritarian regime and surrounded herself with tainted fujimoristas. The paradox of this undesirable electoral outcome, which can be read as a popular rebuke of the status quo, is that it took place in the Latin American country posting the fastest economic growth over the past decade.     

Aiding democracy? Donors and civil society in South Africa

During the 1990s the North has increasingly used a new tool, political aid, to influence its relations with the South. More commonly known as 'democracy assistance', political aid is targeted at governmental structures such as parliament, the judiciary and local government, as well as civil society organisations, with the aim of strengthening the institutions and culture of liberal democracy. However, despite its increasing deployment, the shape and extent of foreign political aid in individual countries in the South remain largely undocumented. This article shows the importance of political aid in South Africa since the pivotal elections of 1994. It then critically examines the role assigned to civil society by donors within the 'democratisation' process. Unlike most writers on the new political aid regime, who are often both its chroniclers and mandarins, this author questions the emancipatory potential of the kind of democracy being 'helped along' by democracy assistance.     

The rules of capitalism

This paper discusses the background to the Palestinian elections and highlights the fact that they are the first democratic elections since 1996. It discusses the reasons for Hamas's participation and the problems it faced. It also examines what issues the electoral candidates needed to touch on in order to win the election. The paper highlights the fact that Fatah's days are over because of widespread corruption. It touches on how Hamas now needs to deal with the international community and how it can compromise with Israel. The paper emphasises that Hamas is the people's choice and that, because it has many obstacles ahead of it, the international community needs to allow it time and to monitor its progress, watching how it deals with being in the real political realm.     

The water and the fish: Public opinion and the provisional IRA in Northern Ireland

Abstract

The methods and goals of the Provisional IRA make it difficult to categorize it simply as a “terrorist” group. Its longevity and its affinity to Irish political culture suggest that it will not be defeated by force but by being rendered irrelevant. This is likely to come about as a result of the state demonstrating its own legitimacy among those sections of the Catholic community which have been understandably reluctant to give the state their full allegiance in the past. Survey evidence supports the contention that the Provisional IRA's goals and grievances are shared by many who would spurn their tactics.     

Dependency today—finance,firms, mafias and the state: A review of Susan Strange's work from a developing country perspective

The movements of political protest, competitive elections and the installation of new regimes are widely regarded as the most significant political upheaval to shake Africa since political independence. The impression is often given that this transformation has also seen the sweeping away of the old guard of autocratic leaders. The image of renewed leadership does not however correspond with reality. Taking the leaders that were in office in 1990 at the beginning of the democratisation movement, the article traces their subsequent history. It finds that half still hold the highest office, having for the most part successfully transformed themselves into 'democratic' leaders. This remarkable success story is examined, for the purpose of this article, from a voluntarist perspective, that is, the tactics that the incumbents pursued so as to remain in office are the focus. Continuing in the tradition of Sandbrook, and Jackson and Rosberg's work on 'personal rule',1 it constitutes a primer on how to hang on to power against the odds.     

Avoiding the Economic Crisis: Pragmatic Liberalism and Divisions over Economic Policy in Poland

Although liberalism has been the dominant economic ideology in post-communist Poland, liberal parties have tended to struggle to win political majorities. After winning the 2011 parliamentary elections, Citizens' Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) became the first party in Poland's democratic history to win two consecutive elections. Despite its liberal ideological background, Platforma Obywatelska took a more pragmatic and cautious approach to economic policy, avoiding the introduction of strong austerity economic policies. This paper considers the debate within the liberal camp about Platforma Obywatelska's economic policies, with particular reference to the reform of pensions. It also looks at the plans of the government for more strident liberal economic reforms in its second term, at what impact these will have on the popularity of Platforma Obywatelska and at how this reflects a tension between the party's pragmatic concerns of government and commitment to liberal ideology.     

Forming community councils East Kilbride

The principle of directly elected mayors forms a key part of the Labour government's strategy to modernise local democracy and strengthen accountability. First applied to London, the government has sought to extend the institution, allowing local referendums to determine whether the public favours the principle or not. This article examines the state of public opinion regarding elected mayors before reporting on the outcome of referendums held since the 2001 general election. We then consider the results of mayoral elections, specifically addressing issues of electoral participation, legitimation and partisan support. In conclusion, we consider whether its experience with both referendums and mayoral elections may have affected the government's enthusiasm for further expansion of this institution across the local government system.     

Curbing ‘Anti-Systemic’ Tendencies in Peru: democracy promotion and the US contribution to producing neoliberal hegemony

Critical scholars and investigative journalists have developed a significant body of evidence demonstrating how US democracy assistance programmes undermine left and centre-left governments in Latin America. This article draws upon original research to examine how democracy promotion has sought to stabilise neoliberal polyarchy in Peru, a longtime regional ally of the US. It contributes to a neo-Gramsican theorisation of democracy programmes by examining how ‘soft’ tactics have contributed to the state's efforts at creating an inclusive neoliberal social order, a project which has ultimately failed. Particular attention is paid to the way in which US programmes were configured and carried out to respond to the rise of the ‘anti-systemic’ Peruvian nationalist party of Ollanta Humala, who won the recent presidential elections in June 2011.     

From War to Peace: The Nepalese Maoists's Strategic and Ideological Thinking

In February 1996, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) initiated a bloody war to establish a Mao-style “people's republic.” A decade later, however, they signed a peace agreement with the government, joined the mainstream political parties in parliament and in an interim government, and participated in democratic elections. This article provides some insight into the Nepalese Maoists's strategic and ideological thinking. More specifically, this article shows the reason behind the party's change of tactics and goals and describes the process in which these changes materialized.     

A Deeper Look at the Relationship between Political Knowledge and Political Participation: Evidence from Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan

This study examines the effects of political knowledge on various types of political participation by focusing on five recent presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. The empirical findings indicate that political knowledge has positive effects on some types of political participation but the effects of political knowledge on different types of political participation vary by the types of electoral systems and elections. Besides, although the interviewer's assessment of the respondent's level of information has been widely used as an effective indicator of political knowledge, this study shows that the interviewers tend to rate men and partisans as politically knowledgeable, which might lead to a biased estimate of political knowledge. Overall, this study provides insight into the relationship between political knowledge and political participation in Taiwan.     

Going Local. Voting for independent local Parties in the Netherlands 1986-2010

ABSTRACT

This paper examines why the support of independent local parties has grown substantially in the Netherlands. These are parties that run in municipal council elections, but do not run in elections at higher levels, specifically the national level. Such parties saw their support double in the Netherlands between 1986 and 2010. Parties of this type have also grown in other Western European states. This paper examines two possible explanations: declining political trust on the level of voters and, on the supply side, the rise of parties that are not rooted at the local level. The evidence shows that the rise of independent local parties reflects the rise of national political parties that do not run in many municipal elections. This article examines the case of the Netherlands, pooling five surveys from the 1986–2010 period.     

Disproportionality by Proportional Design: Seats and Votes in Russia'sRegional Legislative Elections,December 2003–March 2005

From a normative perspective, one of the major merits of electoral systems involving proportional representation (PR) is that they entail high levels of correspondence between voters' preferences, as expressed at the polls, and the levels of representation attained by political parties. From December 2003, federal law made it imperative to use mixed electoral systems in Russia's regional legislative elections. Thus PR, previously used in only a few regions, emerged as a principal mechanism of representation at the sub-national level of the Russian polity. The political incentives that drove this sweeping reform had little to do with normative considerations. When bringing mixed electoral systems to the regions, the federal centre apparently sought to open up the regional political arenas to national political influences, which could be achieved by introducing national political parties as important actors in regional elections. 1 ¹See Grigorii V. Golosov (2004) Political Parties in the Regions of Russia: Democracy Unclaimed (Boulder, Lynne Rienner), pp. 260–268. View all notes However, one might expect that even if without clear intent, high proportionality of electoral outcomes could have emerged as a side product of the electoral reform. It did not. Instead, the conversion of votes into seats in Russia's regional elections produced persistently disproportional outcomes that greatly favoured some political forces at the expense of others. The goal of this study is to examine this idiosyncratic tendency and to build an explanatory model incorporating both institutional and political determinants of disproportionality. By its methodological design, the study is based primarily on a statistical analysis of aggregate electoral results.     

United Russia’s Primaries and the Strength of Political Machines in the Regions of Russia: Evidence from the 2016 Duma Elections

Abstract

The primary elections of the United Russia party serve as a tool for party organisation and voter mobilisation. In this study, we employ United Russia’s capacity to mobilise voter turnout in the 2016 primary elections as an indirect indicator of the strength of party-controlled regional political machines. Our analysis of the results of the 2016 Duma elections in 83 regions of Russia demonstrates that voter turnout in the spring 2016 party primaries of United Russia to a significant extent explains cross-regional variation in party success.     

North Korean leadership: Kim Jong Il's balancing act in the ruling circle

The unexpected durability of North Korea, the world's last unreformed Stalinist polity, is attributable to Kim Jong Il's prudent balancing act between political forces. His balancing act, which is embodied in inclusive politics, honour-power sharing arrangements, and divide-and-rule tactics, has turned out to be effective in clearing away potential cleavages built into the ruling circle and thus in concluding the prolonged succession plan. As long as the balancing act continues to work, the dynasty, albeit defective, could survive in adversity for a longer period than expected. However, once the delicate balance artificially designed by Kim Jong Il is broken down for any reason, Pyongyang's power circle will slip into a centrifugal spiral, followed by internecine power struggles and the collapse of the regime.     

Democratic Consolidation in Timor-Leste: Achievements,Problems and Prospects

Timor-Leste has had three rounds of major elections, all of which have been widely regarded as meeting international criteria for being free and fair. There has also been one change of government on the basis of these elections. On these grounds, some observers have suggested that Timor-Leste has met the benchmark for having consolidated its democracy. Timor-Leste can be said to meet the criteria for an expanded minimalist definition of democracy, holding regular, free and fair elections within an open competitive political environment, with relatively little violence and intimidation and general freedom of expression. This political process has, as defined by the literature, also consolidated. However, Timor-Leste continues to face future economic challenges. The literature indicates that states with high levels of poverty, unemployment and with food shortages are more prone to political instability. Given that Timor-Leste's political party system relies heavily on charismatic individuals and, apart from Fretilin, has poor party structures, loss of current political leaders will add a further destabilising effect. Expected economic problems are likely to manifest around the same time that the current generation of political leaders are no longer active. The question will be, in this increasingly challenging environment, whether Timor-Leste can sustain its democracy.     

The Strategy of Exclusion in American Counterterrorism

ABSTRACT

While garnering heightened attention following the Trump administration's travel restrictions, exclusionary tactics in counterterrorism have a much lengthier history. Given that some terrorism studies scholars identify social and political exclusion as an explanation for the resort to terrorist violence, the selection of a strategy of exclusion is significant. In this article, I identify the elements of a strategy of exclusion and the logic behind this strategy. In particular, I examine the origins and persistence of this strategy in the U.S. context. Rather than a contemporary anomaly, exclusion was among the first strategies the United States added to its counterterrorist tool-kit, and has remained among the most consistent strategies relied on. I trace the history of this strategy from its origins in immigration restrictions passed following the assassination of President McKinley by an anarchist through the contemporary War on Terror. Controversy surrounding this strategy, its negative effects on nonviolent immigrant populations, and its failure to prevent further acts of terrorism suggest it was historically ineffective and may also be so today.     

Pacts,Parties and Elite Struggle: Ukraine's Troubled Post-Orange Transition

This article resuscitates some of the theoretical arguments of transition studies to shed light on the complex institutional and political developments in post-Orange Ukraine (2004 – 2007). In December 2004, Ukraine's elite agreed to embark on a complex transition involving power-sharing between the Rada (parliament) and the government on one side, and the presidency on the other. The new electoral law was to be based on a fully proportional system. In the subsequent period of 2005 – 2007, two consecutive proportional elections have been held, Ukraine has had several governments, and the Rada was incapacitated for a longer period. Rival elites engaged in a zero-sum game over reforms, and attempts were made to resolve differences by several pacts. This article analyses the post-Orange transition in terms of three variables: the effectiveness of pacts, the need to abide by the transition scheme, and the effect of elections. It is argued that Ukraine has failed to deliver on pacts and timetables, but has delivered on elections. This means that its political system may be considered a minimalist and electoral based one.     

Political incrementalism: Political lessons from China's 20 years of reform

The recent crackdown by the Chinese Communist Party government on the efforts of Chinese dissidents to organise the China New Democratic Party has raised a serious question among scholars: why has the Chinese leadership been so reluctant to initiate democratic reforms? But an equally important question is: how has the Chinese political system been able to accommodate drastic socioeconomic changes? Although Chinese leaders from Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin have strongly opposed the Western style of democracy, they have continuously adjusted the country's political system to prevent socioeconomic chaos from occuring, chaos that has troubled many former communist states and Third World countries. This paper explores China's political incrementalism and explains how incremental political reforms have worked. It argues that, although Chinese leaders have so far been successful in accommodating social changes through incrementalism, they are still uncertain about how to cope with increasing social demands for political reform and democratisation.     

Zambia's 2001 elections: The tyranny of small decisions, 'non-decisions' and 'not decisions'

The course of the 1990s witnessed deterioration in the quality of elections held across sub-Saharan Africa. Zambia's elections for the presidency, parliament and local government held on 27 December 2001 are no exception. They returned the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) to power, but with much reduced popular support and leaving doubts about the legitimacy of the result. A 'tyranny of small decisions', 'non-decisions' and 'not decisions' perpetrated over 12 months or more leading up to these elections combined to influence the outcome. The previous MMD government and the formally autonomous Electoral Commission were primarily but not wholly responsible. For independent analysts as well as for the political opposition, who secured a majority of parliamentary seats while narrowly failing to capture the presidency, identifying the relevant category of 'decisions' to which influences belong and comparing their impact is no straightforward matter. Zambia both illustrates the claim that 'administrative problems are typically the basis of the flawed elections' in new democracies and refines it by showing the difficulty of clearly separating the administrative and political factors. In contrast Zimbabwe's presidential election in March 2002, which had the Zambian experience to learn from, appears a more clear-cut case of deliberate political mischief by the ruling party.