A welfare analysis of the EC‐ACP sugar protocol

The Sugar Protocol, laid down in the Convention of Lome, has been an established instrument of commodity policy for nearly 20 years. Its basic rule is that the EC imports at guaranteed prices specified quantities of sugar from ACP countries. It is the objective of the article to provide an economic evaluation of the Sugar Protocol. Impacts on prices, trade, export earnings and economic welfare are elaborated. The Sugar Protocol's impacts on the level and instabilty of sugar export earnings are jointly evaluated by computing transfer and risk benefits along the lines of Newbery/Stiglitz. A major conclusion is that the policy has to be evaluated differently from the donor's and the recipient's point of view. The Sugar Protocol induces international income transfers that are untargeted in terms of per capita income. It causes, however, rather strong risk benefits compared with other instruments of international commodity policy and sizeable welfare gains for individual recipient countries.     

A farm‐sizewise analysis of irrigation distribution in India

This article analyses and describes the relationship between the size of operational holding on the one hand and various irrigation and irrigation‐related variables, on the hand, using cross‐section regression analysis of farm‐sizewise/statewise Indian data. The overall conclusion that emerges from the analysis is that irrigation development in India as a whole seems to be such that its propagation and diffusion among agricultural households seems to be somewhat in favour of larger farms. Even though the government predominantly controls the development and distribution of flow‐sources of irrigation, especially of canal irrigation, it does not seem to have produced any significant positive impact on reducing the level of inequity involved in the distribution of irrigation across farm‐size groups.     

How to lend like mad and make a profit: A micro‐credit paradigm versus the start‐up fund in South Africa

In current debates about micro‐credit, joint‐liability schemes are often viewed as the only viable way to non‐collateralised lending, and are thus seen as almost synonymous with micro‐credit. This article reports about an alternative, non‐participatory approach to micro‐credit. Prompted by the apparent inability of group credit schemes to reign in lending costs, the article sets out the institutional requirements for cheap, ‘mass‐produced’ credit. It argues that such credit can be viable if mechanisms are in place enforcing the self‐selection of potential borrowers and self‐motivation of existing borrowers. The analysis of a ‘mass‐minimalist’ micro‐credit institution from South Africa supports the argument.     

The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis

Abstract

The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving average model. The fit of this model was tested both by statistical diagnostics and the accuracy of predictions based on this model compared to actual occurrence. However, the series of victimization rates did not reveal any predictability aside from the overall trend of an increasing level of victimization. The findings of the study are discussed by two approaches: the contagiousness of terrorism and the concept of media‐oriented terrorism. These two concepts, separately or combined, may explain some of the patterns revealed in the occurrence of terrorist events. However, they both highlight the part played by the mass media, either as a target for publicity‐seeking terrorists or as an influential factor in the process of contagion.     

Re‐examining the Team A‐Team B exercise

The great pretenders

Peter Schweizer: Victory: The Reagan Administration's Secret Strategy That Hastened the Collapse of the Soviet Union The Atlantic Monthly Press, New York, 1994, 284 pp., $22.00.

Insight into the Japanese‐German relationship

Carl Boyd: Hitler's Japanese Confidant: General Oshima Hiroshi and MAGIC Intelligence, 1941–1945 University Press of Kansas, Lawrence, Kan., 1993, 294 p., $25.00.

Old secrets revealed

Wilhelm F. Flicke: War Secrets in the Ether Aegean Park Press, Laguna Hills, CA, 1994, 234 pp., $36.30.     

The behaviour of indigenous and non‐indigenous farmers: A case study

This paper contrasts the economic performance of a group of immigrant Chinese paddy farmers in West Malaysia with their native Malay counterparts. The situation involves their differing response to the introduction of doublecropping. Productivity measures, production function estimates, and field observations indicate significant differences in performance. The reasons for these differences are attributed to the characteristics of immigrant groups, differences in perception of the innovations, and historical factors.     

Provocation at the center: A study in the history of counter‐terror

Abstract

This paper deals with the early beginnings and subsequent history of the secret, or political, police in nineteenth‐century Europe, whose task was to tame and terrify the masses, appeal to fear, and to root out revolutionary groups and secret societies, including even revolutionary attitudes. As pointed out here, the origins of such police forces, specializing in counter‐terror, go back to the French Revolution and the Ministry of Police headed by Fouche. Autocratic governments not being unusual, the history of counter‐terrorism displays many practitioners and techniques during the nineteenth century. A true heir of Fouche was Louis Andrieux, a Chief of Police of the Third Republic in France, who gave advice to Tsar Alexander III that has since been followed by many agents provocateurs and counter‐revolutionaries. The Russian Okhrana and the role played by Plehve in containing the revolutionary movement are discussed as are also the alliance between Degayev and Sudeykin, in addition to the Zubatov system and the Azef affair. Throughout, the struggle between revolution and counter‐revolution illustrates the fact that the physical blows that were the results of provocation were not always decisive; the exposure of provocation was often more harmful than anything that provocation itself could achieve. Moreover, the author concludes, the role played by the Russian secret police served to perpetuate terrorism and made all other state authorities a domain for the machinations and intrigues of the leaders of the secret police.     

Are pre‐schoolers from female‐headed households less malnourished? A comparative analysis of results from Ghana and Kenya

This article compares household income level and pre‐schooler weight‐for‐age across household groupings that are differentiated by female headship variables which are reflective of the heterogeneity of female‐headed households. Data from Kenya indicate that it is the interaction of income and female headship at low‐income levels which promotes pre‐schooler nutritional status. For Ghana, incomes have to be quite large (in the upper tercile of the distribution) before a reduction in the child's likelihood of having a low weight‐for‐age is achieved through further income increases. We argue that an absence of complementary child health inputs is more likely for households in the Ghana sample, and that in this type of environment, differences in nurturing patterns, as proxied by headship status, will have a muted impact on child nutrition.     

The role of urban‐to‐rural remittances in rural development

One of the effects of rural‐to‐urban migration is the return of money and resources by the migrants to their respective home areas. Recently, it has been argued by several authors that such remittances represent a significant means for removing supply constraints to improved productivity in agriculture. In this paper the authors examine critically the available evidence on the rural impact of remittances. Subjects covered in the paper include the extent of the urban‐to‐rural remittances, the determinants of such financial flows and the use made in the rural areas of the money received. The paper concludes there is little evidence that urban‐rural remittances have been a significant means to rural economic development.     

States and the constitutionalization of international relations: A view from the mid‐Atlantic

Michael J. Baun, An Imperfect Union: The Maastricht Treaty and the New Politics of European Integration (Westview, Boulder, CO, 1996), xvi + 182 pp., ISBN 0–8133–2710–5 (hb), 0–8133–2711–3 (pb)

Michael Calingaert, European Integration. Progress, Prospects and US Interests (Westview, Boulder, CO, 1996), xiii +223 pp., ISBN 0–8133–2953–1 (hb), 0–8133–2954‐X (pb)

Brian Hocking and Michael Smith, Beyond Foreign Economic Policy. The United States, the Single European Market and the Changing World Economy (Pinter, London, 1997), 216 pp., ISBN 185567–269–3

John Peterson, Europe and America: The Prospects for Partnership (Routledge, London, 1996, 2nd edn), xii +240 pp., ISBN 0–415–14653–4 (hb), 0–415–13864–7 (pb)