Terrorism and the Kenyan Public

Since 11 September 2001, terrorism has been a global security threat. One of the partners in the war on terrorism is Kenya. Considering Kenya"s recent experience with terrorist acts, their effects on its public psyche, and Kenya"s reactions to them in domestic and foreign policies, this study presents perceptions on terrorism from an exploratory survey in Kenya. Respondents feel most threatened not by terrorism but by AIDS and local criminals. Among terrorist acts, the most threatening include suicide terrorism, a plane crash, and stabbing attacks. Media reports on terrorism not only intensify feelings of anxiety and helplessness but also strengthen feelings for both peaceful and revengeful reactions. In order to prevent terrorist attacks, routine security checks, recognizing a Palestinian right to statehood, and intelligence collaboration with the CIA and Mosad are considered the most effective measures. Kenya"s commitment to the war on terrorism may be less a response to Kenyans" perceptions of terrorist threats than a policy to support the United States against terrorists in exchange for U.S. support against AIDS and for political stability, democracy, pluralism, and economic development.     

Analytic Models and Policy Prescription: Understanding Recent Innovation in U.S. Counterterrorism

The threat of terrorism, particularly terrorism involving a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), has received enormous attention in the last decade. Since the mid1990s, the federal government has embarked on a concerted national effort to prepare the country for acts of WMD terrorism. A key component of the counterterrorism agenda is the domestic preparedness program, a series of initiatives aimed at reducing America's vulnerability to a WMD terrorist attack. However, there is a heated debate over whether or not the United States needs a domestic preparedness program at all. This article argues that much of the debate originates in disparate approaches to analyzing terrorism. Terrorism studies specialists use an internal model that analyzes the root causes, motives, and historical patterns of terrorism and concludes that the threat of WMD terrorism against the United States is not sufficient to warrant the domestic preparedness budget. Policy makers and national security experts, however, rely on an external risk assessment model that considers terrorism within the context of the many risks to American security. This assessment model evaluates WMD terrorism on the basis of risk and consequences, and reaches a logical conclusion that the potential for mass destruction not only merits, but also requires a level of domestic preparedness.     

The Plots that Failed: Intelligence Lessons Learned from Unsuccessful Terrorist Attacks Against the United States

While much of the focus of terrorism research is on successful terrorist attacks, the most significant lessons for terrorism prevention may come from examination of terrorist plots and attacks that do not succeed. This article analyzes 176 terrorist plots against American targets that have been thwarted or otherwise failed during the past 25 years. It considers what kinds of intelligence and security measures are most useful in counterterrorism, and argues that the conventional wisdom about why intelligence fails—because analysts and agencies are unable to “connect the dots”—is wrong. Most plots, especially domestic terrorist plots, are not foiled through imaginative analysis, but through conventional law enforcement efforts and aggressive domestic intelligence collection that reveal to authorities just what the plotters are up to.     

Expatriate Games: Interorganizational Coordination and International Counterterrorism

In America, Britain and Australia the threat of terrorism has been used to justify radical new legislation that gives police and intelligence agencies unprecedented powers to detain and question people believed to have information connected to terrorism. In this paper I explore the nature of the threat of non-state terrorism—threat to national security and the well-being of citizens. I argue that terrorism does not pose a threat sufficient to justify the kinds of counterterrorism legislation currently being enacted. Furthermore many of the current counterterrorism practices pose a greater threat to individual physical security and well-being than non-state terrorism. We should fear counterterrorism more than we fear terrorism.     

Security of international civil aviation: The role of ICAO

Abstract

The International Civil Aviation Organization in the last twenty years has marshaled support of the overwhelming majority of its 150 member states in developing security programs and establishing a legal framework of international cooperation against terrorism in international aviation. The Tokyo Convention of 1963 establishes jurisdiction over offenses while an aircraft is in flight and grants a wide spectrum of powers to the aircraft commander to restrain a passenger. The Hague Convention of 1970 obliges states to punish the unlawful seizure of aircraft with severe penalties and to either extradite the offender or try him. The Montreal Convention of 1971 establishes a system of suppression of acts against aircraft, covering mostly acts on the ground that might endanger an aircraft in flight, and requires states to take practicable measures to prevent such offenses. In the past few years the number of countries adhering to these pacts and instituting improved security measures has increased significantly. Accompanying this trend has been a downward trend in acts of unlawful interference and seizure of aircraft to 147 in the 1978–1980 period compared to 245 in the 1969–1971 period. Nevertheless, only steadfast efforts by all nations can complete the job of eliminating unlawful interference with international civil aviation.     

Themes in official discourses on terrorism in Central Asia

This article explores the manner in which the governments of Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, have analysed and portrayed the actual and perceived threat from Islamist terrorism. It examines and critiques the core themes in this discourse, including the theoretical and legal definitions of the term terrorism, the delegitimisation and depoliticisation of the terrorist and the continuation of Soviet rhetoric on terrorism. It seeks to place this discourse in the wider political culture and objectives of the regimes and the broader security considerations of these newly independent states seeking to consolidate state- and nationhood.     

When Terrorism as Strategy Fails: Dissident Irish Republicans and the Threat to British Security

The use of terrorism as a strategy for obtaining political goals by non-state actors persists in the international system, despite attempts by states to counter the phenomenon. This article explores the resurgent threat posed to British security by dissident Irish republicans in order to illustrate the limited utility of terrorism as a strategy in the current sociopolitical context. Therefore, it has three objectives: First, it explains how strategic theory can aid in constructing a conceptual framework for explaining the persistence of terrorism, in general, and dissident republican violence, in particular. Second, it examines the dissident threat in light of the general failure of “armed struggle” to achieve republican goals in Irish politics. It is argued here that dissident republicans have confused “means” with “ends” and that this, ultimately, demonstrates the futility of their violence. Finally, the article suggests ways of tackling the dissident republican variant of terrorism.     

International cooperation in the field of international political terrorism

Political terrorism is defined. The various forms of international terrorism are enumerated. Types and manifestations of terrorism are discussed as well as their differentiation according to objectives and means. The necessity of international cooperation to deal with the problem is discussed, and five fields of possible cooperation are listed. The following existing multilateral conventions are dealt with: the Tokyo Convention of 1963, the Hague Convention of 1970, and the Montreal Convention of 1971. It is stressed that there is a need for a general convention of cooperation or, at least, border agreements, treaties of extradition, and mutual judicial assistance. The European Convention on the Suppression of Terrorism (1977) is discussed as an agreement meant to “deprivilege poltical offenses.”     

Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism

In this article, we investigate the relationship between human rights conditions and terrorist activity. We begin by outlining a theory for the genesis and growth of terrorism and argue that states which deny subsistence rights along with civil and political rights create an environment that is conducive to the development of terrorism. However, we conclude that it is the denial of security rights that is a necessary condition for the creation and growth of terrorism. We then examine the causes of terrorism in Northern Ireland in light of this theory. Specifically, we explore the extent to which human rights abuses contributed to the formation and growth of terrorists within Northern Ireland. We find that limits on the civil and political rights of the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland played a significant role in the genesis of terrorism. More importantly, British abuses of security rights increased the number of Irish citizens who supported and participated in terrorist activity.     

Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism

In this article, we investigate the relationship between human rights conditions and terrorist activity. We begin by outlining a theory for the genesis and growth of terrorism and argue that states which deny subsistence rights along with civil and political rights create an environment that is conducive to the development of terrorism. However, we conclude that it is the denial of security rights that is a necessary condition for the creation and growth of terrorism. We then examine the causes of terrorism in Northern Ireland in light of this theory. Specifically, we explore the extent to which human rights abuses contributed to the formation and growth of terrorists within Northern Ireland. We find that limits on the civil and political rights of the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland played a significant role in the genesis of terrorism. More importantly, British abuses of security rights increased the number of Irish citizens who supported and participated in terrorist activity.     

The Boko Haram Uprising: how should Nigeria respond?

Since the execution of Osama bin Laden and a few other al-Qaeda kingpins, the incidence of international terrorism seems to be on the decline and the ‘war on terror’ has been applauded as a huge success, with some even arguing that terrorism will fizzle out sooner rather than later. But recent experiences in Nigeria and some other African states reveal that, while global terrorism may be on the decline, the proliferation and radicalisation of local terrorist groups with possible links to al-Qaeda seem to be on the rise. The quest for effective counter-terrorism therefore continues. This article interrogates how Nigeria should respond to the Boko Haram terrorist uprising. Methodologically it relies on both primary and secondary sources of data. It provides an overview of the evolution and dynamics of the uprising in Nigeria, and explores the motivations, strategic operations and responses of Boko Haram. The article shows that the uprising, which engenders general insecurity, is a consequence of governance failure and institutional fragility. Thus, it concludes that, to effectively address the uprising, Nigeria should adopt a human security approach rather than the current emphasis on a repressive state security approach.     

Democracy,Al Qaeda,and the Causes of Terrorism: A Strategic Analysis of U.S. Policy

How will the strategy of spreading democracy affect the threat of terrorism from Al Qaeda and likeminded Islamic extremist groups? This article analyzes how spreading democracy would impact four different sets of underlying motivations that lead to this kind of terrorism. It will show that the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced because democracy will be unlikely to change perceptions of occupation, will itself threaten Islamic identity and culture, will be unlikely to mitigate economic grievances, and will be unlikely to provide a more legitimate government than one based on religious law.     

The Effect of Database and Website Inconstancy on the Terrorism Field's Delineation

The often changing range of terrorism journals selected for indexing in various databases adds to the elasticity of this field's definition. The electronic databases as well as websites change their format and content quite often and this instability hampers the formation of a clear delineation of the disciplinary boundaries of terrorism. Nevertheless, the integration of electronic databases into terrorism research has exposed researchers to a large number of journals that deal with various aspects of terrorism, and the boundaries of this subject are continually expanding to encompass new sub-areas. In addition to the known core journals covering terrorism, many peripheral journals are emerging that are concerned with the dynamics of this field. The exposure of researchers to such a massive amount of information, print and electronic, demonstrates a marked knowledge growth in this area of study. However, the field could become so broad, even before reaching disciplinary maturation, that it could defy any attempt at delineation.‐     

Australia and the Threat of Terrorism in the Decade after 9/11

In February 2010, the Australian government released its second Counter-Terrorism White Paper, claiming that terrorism continues to pose a serious security challenge to Australia. The article critically re-examines the terrorist threat to Australia and explores the threat posed by the traditional Al-Qaeda leadership, by regional organisations like Jemaah Islamiyah and by so-called ‘home-grown’ terrorists. Arguing that it is imperative to differentiate clearly between the threat to Australia and Australian interests abroad, the article identifies the sources of threat in the Australian context. It concludes that neither Al-Qaeda nor Jemaah Islamiyah nor home-grown terrorism poses any significant objective threat to Australia. At the same time it is acknowledged that the subjective perception of the terrorist necessitates the government to develop an effective counter-terrorism strategy. However, given that the terrorism threat is objectively low, policy measures addressing the threat ought to be carefully designed to meet the requirements of proportionality and (potential) effectiveness.     

Islamic Terrorism and the Question of National Liberation,or Problems of Contemporary Chechen Terrorism

Scholars have analyzed various causes of contemporary Chechen terrorism in Russia and have offered multiple explanations as to why this terrorism persists. Most commonly, these scholars accuse Russia of suppressing a Muslim struggle for national liberation in Chechnya because of Russia's own interests in Chechen territory or its lucrative oil resources. This work analyzes various instances of Chechen terrorism, 1991–2002, to conclude that the dynamics of terrorism do not support the claims of various scholars, journalists, and Chechen terrorists that Chechen rebels are fighting a war of independence and that the Russian government's failure “to let Chechnya go” instigates future acts of terrorism.     

Convergence of Counterterrorism Policies: A Case Study of Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia

This article distinguishes the demand from the supply of counterterrorism following either a large-scale terrorist attack or campaign. On the demand side, terrorism shocks increase the willingness of civilians to sacrifice their liberties for security, thereby giving the government a mandate to augment defensive and proactive measures against the terrorists. The supply side differs greatly between domestic and transnational terrorism. Supply problems may plague countermeasures against transnational terrorism as at-risk nations act strategically. In particular, there is a strong proclivity for nations to overspend on defense and to underspend on proactive measures. These tendencies are explored using simple game theory. A country's sovereignty also bolsters the ability of targeted nations to address domestic terrorism with an appropriate mix of counter- terrorism measures.     

The Contagious Diffusion of Worldwide Terrorism: Is It Less Common Than We Might Think?

Studies of the contagious spread of insurgency and conflict across national boundaries has generated a good deal of empirical research over time. While the contagious spread of terrorism has also been a policy concern, few empirical studies exist on the extent to which terrorism spreads contagiously. This article uses methods developed by criminologists to study the spread of crime to examine the worldwide diffusion of terrorism from 1970 to 2013. We distinguish between contagious increases (based on shared borders) and non-contagious increases (where no borders are shared). We define the “domino effect” as a particular type of contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country but also remain high in the host country. Our analysis shows that both contagious and non-contagious diffusion has been rare over the past 43 years, non-contagious diffusion is more common than contagious, and when contagious diffusion occurs, it is very likely to occur according to the domino effect.     

Europol and EU Counterterrorism: International Security Actorness in the External Dimension

This article offers an analysis of Europol's security actorness in the external dimension of EU counterterrorism. While Europol has attracted some scholarly attention, not so much work has focused on the meaning of its international agreements in counterterrorism. This article aims to investigate the international actorness of Europol at the international level in relation to the fight against international terrorism. It offers original conceptual insights based on empirical case studies of international agreements: Europol agreements with U.S. law enforcement, as well as Europol agreements with countries in the European Neighbourhood policy.     

Instrumentalizing Counterterrorism for Regime Consolidation in Putin's Russia

Since the late 1990s, Russia has been among the countries most painfully affected by terrorism and President Putin has shown little doubt and even much enthusiasm in joining the U.S.-led "war" against terrorism. Intertwined as they are, counterterrorism and Chechnya are still significantly different matters in Russian security policy, and this article aims at examining how the struggle against terrorism shapes essential features of Russia's foreign and domestic policies during Putin's first presidency. Internally, the struggle against terrorism provides for a sufficient mobilization of the dysfunctional society around the "mutant" regime that has consolidated its control over mid-term political agenda. Internationally, high-profile counterterrorism strategy has helped Russia to secure for itself a more prominent role than the sheer size of its "assets" would justify. This war is fundamentally not about victory; it is about many "collateral" benefits for the regime that Putin is presiding over.‐     

Inspiration and the Origins of Global Waves of Terrorism

This article examines the causes of terrorism at a global level. It also reexamines the chronology of terrorism since the nineteenth century. It argues that local causes cannot explain global waves, and that while ideology is a necessary ingredient in causing terrorism, it does not explain it. The article proposes that the most important cause of global waves of terror is the inspiring example for radicals everywhere of what are, or appear to be, successful uses of terrorist strategies. This hypothesis is tested in the context of a reevaluation of David Rapoport's chronology of global waves of terrorism. The article argues for different periodization, and for labeling the waves as Italian, German, Chinese, and Afghan.