多元启发决策理论与美国总统使用武力：一种定量检验

多元启发理论将决策过程假设为两个阶段：第一阶段,决策者基于一个简化的心理认知捷径和非补偿原则排除了那些不能满足关键维度效用的方案;第二阶段则在剩下的方案中以一种理性选择方式选定效用最大的方案。本文从国际危机行为数据库（ICB3．0）选取了1946年至2006年美国总统在对外政策危机中使用武力的数据来检验多元启发理论决策两阶段和非补偿原则的假设。本文的逻辑回归分析发现：在决策的第一’阶段,作为关键维度的国内政治得失对总统应对外交政策危机时是否使用武力的行为具有显著性影响,这支持了多元启发理论关于领导人基于-~＊1-偿原则决策的假设;在第二阶段,理性因素如实力差异、对国际影响的威胁以及国内经济条件等对总统使用武力行为具有显著性影响。这些发现支持了多元启发理论的核心假设。     

Islam and Attitudes toward U.S. Policy in the Middle East: Evidence from Survey Research in Lebanon

This study examines the impact of religious orientation on attitudes toward U.S. Middle Eastern policy among Muslim Lebanese. The data came from a stratified random sample, consisting of 262 Sunni and Shi'i respondents of both genders, conducted in the Greater Beirut area during February and March of 2002. Consistent with the literature about Islamism, the present analysis reveals an empirical distinction between personal and political dimensions of religion in Lebanon. Specifically, support for political Islam is associated with unfavorable attitudes toward U.S. policy in the region, but personal religiosity is unrelated to attitudes toward foreign policy. The study findings contribute in clarifying the debate that has been raging since the September 11 attacks, pitting Islam against the West and associating Islam with political violence.     

美国少年法院模式及其借鉴

美国少年法院经历了从“国家亲权”到保障犯罪少年宪法权利的理念变迁过程。在一定条件下，美国少年法院可以将案件移交给成人刑事法院，但审理必须遵循正当法律程序，并在一些裁决中必须遵循“排除合理怀疑”的证明规则。不过，美国少年法院中的少年罪犯没有要求陪审团审判的权利。以此为鉴，我国少年法院的建设应适当引入行政处罚权、淡化少年案件的诉讼色彩，并适当配置有关的程序权利。     

The States' Role in U.S. Local Government Fiscal Crises: A Theoretical Model and Results of a National Survey

Abstract

This article hypothesizes four potential roles that states may play in dealing with local government fiscal crises: predict, avert, mitigate and prevent the recurrence of local fiscal crises. Based on a 50‐state telephone survey administered by the author to members of the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers in 2002, this article presents detailed information on states' roles in dealing with actual local government fiscal crises. The research found that ten states had formal definitions of local government fiscal crises while the remainder varied between having a working definition, having no definition, or leaving it to local authorities to define a fiscal crisis for themselves. Although the majority of states lacked a rigourous, legal definition of what constitutes a local government fiscal crisis, 36 states reported that they had had such crisis in recent history in their states. Seven overlapping categories of state approaches emerged: the directive approach, the proactive approach, the ad hoc approach, the special legislation approach, the reform approach, the takeover approach, and the responsive approach. States reported a wide range of activities under each of the hypothesized roles. In general, states tended to get involved after a crisis rather than before one occured.     

Democracy,Al Qaeda,and the Causes of Terrorism: A Strategic Analysis of U.S. Policy

How will the strategy of spreading democracy affect the threat of terrorism from Al Qaeda and likeminded Islamic extremist groups? This article analyzes how spreading democracy would impact four different sets of underlying motivations that lead to this kind of terrorism. It will show that the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced because democracy will be unlikely to change perceptions of occupation, will itself threaten Islamic identity and culture, will be unlikely to mitigate economic grievances, and will be unlikely to provide a more legitimate government than one based on religious law.     

A Comparative Study of U.S. and Iranian Counter-ISIS Strategies

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)'s activities now go beyond insurgency and conventional operations in the territories it controls in the Middle East. It poses a threat to U.S. interests and allies in Europe, and a serious threat to Iran and its borders. While Washington formed an international coalition encompassing many European and Middle Eastern states to combat ISIS, it only coordinates some tactical and operation-level efforts with a key player on the ground: Iran. For its part, Iran is leveraging similar counter-ISIS tools as those adopted by the United States, despite their strategies differing fundamentally.     

多元视野下的美国青少年法治教育：途径、策略及启示

美国青少年法治教育在美国公民教育中占有重要位置。其教育特点在于建立以学生为本的法治教育模式，注重行动与实践参与，注重法治教育内容的层次性、完整性、连续性、科学性，提高学生参与社会的能力。开展多种形式的法治教育，突出情景教学模式，培养学生的参与意识，整合教育、家庭与社会资源，构筑三位一体的法治教育模式，充分发挥网络资源在法治教育中的作用。其教育特点启示我们，法治教育不是单一的课堂灌输，而是多元互动的结果。     

Budgeting,policy and administration: patterns and dynamics in the U.S

This article examines the relationships between policy, administration, and budgeting I argue that the administration of government is directly and primarily influenced by changes in policy and budgeting. A conceptual framework of the interrelationship between these three factors is presented. This framework is applied to Schick's classic periodicization of twentieth century U.S. history. Three value orientations of budgeting—control, management, and planning—were evident at different times during these periods. The framework is then applied to the period since 1981, labeled a phase of limitation. This phase has been an unhealthy development in American government.     

The Evolution of the U.S. Government's Annual Report on Terrorism: A Personal Commentary

This article examines the evolution of a key U.S. Government annual publication on terrorism. From its inception in 1977 to the present, the U.S. Government's annual terrorism report has been the primary statistical compiler of international terrorist incidents. Given the magnitude of this task and the inherent difficulty in defining the term “terrorism,” this report has been controversial and criticized. Love it or hate it, for many decades, this report was the sole source of statistics on international terrorism. The author argues that despite its flaws, this unclassified annual report does provide value and usually paints a fairly accurate picture of the international terrorism landscape. Over the last two years however, there have been claims that this report has become politicized and tailored to fit the views of the administration on the terrorist threat. The author rejects this charge and claims that this publication has been objective and that it has evolved over time into a more credible and useful report.     

Redefining a U.S.Strategy toward China:Smart Policy and its Implications

The redefinition of the U.S.policy toward China since Barack Obama’s election has been based on a compromise between elements of hard power(military,economy) and soft power(influence,dialogue,persuasion).This new posture has been defined by several experts and policymakers as asmart policy.However,considering the rise of China and its implications both at economic and political levels,what is the real margin of Washington in its relation with Beijing,and what are the long term implications of the smart policy? If the China policy is a priority for the Obama administration,the challenges for Washington are particularly sensitive, considering the consequences of a failure in implementing comprehensive China-U.S.relations.     

Street children in North and Latin America: Preliminary data fromproyecto alternativos in Tegucigalpa and some comparisons with the U.S. case

The decade of the 1980s witnessed a dramatic transformation in the character of homelessness in the United States and elsewhere in the developed world. Whereas in previous decades the U.S. homeless were predominantly older, largely white, brokendown alcoholic men (or at least were stereotypified as such), today a sizable fraction are women and children. Indeed, women, children, and youth now comprise more than three-eighths of the total homeless population of the United States (Wright 1989). As the U.S. homeless have come to be comprised of proportionally more women and children, so have they come more and more to resemble the street populations of the Third World, where homelessness, family disorganization, exploitation, and abandonment of children have become increasingly important problems during the past decade.