The Radical Group in Context: 1. An Integrated Framework for the Analysis of Group Risk for Terrorism

On the basis of a systematic expert knowledge acquisition process, a framework has been developed that takes into account critical variables--internal and external, as well as interactions between them and the group under examination--that are understood to increase risk for escalation toward political violence. The indicators identified are grouped within four conceptual categories: (1) External factors, including historical, cultural, and contextual features; (2) Key actors affecting the group, including the regime and other opponents, as well as Constituents and Supporters; (3) The Group/Organization: Characteristics, Processes, and Structures, including an examination of such factors as leadership style and decision making, group experience with violence, and group ideology and goals; and (4) Characteristics of the Immediate Situation, including Triggering Events. A total of 32 variables were identified within the 4 categories to establish the overall integrated framework. This framework provides the basis for the rigorous analysis of a radical group's risk for terrorism.     

Trends in Transnational Terrorism and Implications for U.S. National Security and U.S. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act

The unprecedented losses brought about by the attacks of 11 September 2001 have cast the issue of terrorism risk insurance into sharp relief. In particular, it has raised questions as to whether attacks on this scale are an insurable risk and the extent to which the private insurance industry is able and/or willing to price such risks independent of a Federal safety net. Although the Bush administration has committed to renew the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) to offset the human and materiel costs that might result from future cataclysmic terrorist strikes taking place on U.S. soil, it is not apparent that this legislative framework is relevant to the type of extremist contingencies that the United States is likely to face over the short-to-medium term. Any long-term solution to providing insurance in America will necessarily need to go beyond TRIA's existing framework by dropping the “foreign interest” designation for certified attacks; including some sort of supplemental program that includes mandatory coverage for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) assaults; and investigating ways to increase the take-up rates of terrorism insurance by lowering its cost to the customer. An oversight board mandated to evaluate the Act's performance and relevance to evolving terrorist trends would also be useful.     

Terrorism in Italy: Analysis of a problem

The author, after a short premise in which the phenomenon under examination is analyzed on the basis of the study of individual motivations, considers, in the context of the present Italian moral crisis, the social and interpersonal factors that violent terrorism generate.

The inquiry then moves on to attempt to identify the aims of terrorism through the observation of the subsequent phases through which it develops.

After a short survey of some sociological and psychological theories of the causes of the phenomenon, the author concludes that the problem of terrorism cannot be solved through the threat of more serious sanctions for the crimes committed but through the reorganization and restructuring of the state, and the elimination of the insecurity and tension that are among the main causes of the phenomenon.     

Unpacking the Social Origins of Terrorism: The Role of Women's Empowerment in Reducing Terrorism

The author's prior cross-national research found a negative relationship between the percent of the workforce that is female and terrorism. One explanation of this finding suggests that women are violence-averse and work to mitigate acts of political violence. Alternatively, women in the workforce may simply proxy for an economy with robust employment with fewer grievances or proxy for modernizing forces (e.g., democracy, secularism) that moderate traditionalism. The author examines the relationship between women in the workforce and terrorism and finds that while modernization factors are important, terrorism is nonetheless explained by the unique nonviolent influences of women in public society.     

Regions of Risk: Western Discourses on Terrorism and the Significance of Islam

Terrorism is a word that everyone across the globe has become familiar with in the wake of the events of 11 September 2001. The rhetoric about these events, however, is more than mere commentary seeking to understand the cause of or apportion blame for such attacks and forms part of a much wider western discourse invoked to describe unfamiliar cultures and landscapes. In fact, terrorism is only the most recent in a long line of dangerous conditions that have come to represent how certain areas of the non-western world are usually imagined and subsequently depicted as regions of risk. This article argues that "tropicality," "development," and "vulnerability" form part of one and the same essentializing and generalizing cultural discourse with "terrorism" that historically denigrate large regions of the world as disease-ridden, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone and terrorist-spawning.‐     

The Evolution of the U.S. Government's Annual Report on Terrorism: A Personal Commentary

This article examines the evolution of a key U.S. Government annual publication on terrorism. From its inception in 1977 to the present, the U.S. Government's annual terrorism report has been the primary statistical compiler of international terrorist incidents. Given the magnitude of this task and the inherent difficulty in defining the term “terrorism,” this report has been controversial and criticized. Love it or hate it, for many decades, this report was the sole source of statistics on international terrorism. The author argues that despite its flaws, this unclassified annual report does provide value and usually paints a fairly accurate picture of the international terrorism landscape. Over the last two years however, there have been claims that this report has become politicized and tailored to fit the views of the administration on the terrorist threat. The author rejects this charge and claims that this publication has been objective and that it has evolved over time into a more credible and useful report.     

Democracy,Al Qaeda,and the Causes of Terrorism: A Strategic Analysis of U.S. Policy

How will the strategy of spreading democracy affect the threat of terrorism from Al Qaeda and likeminded Islamic extremist groups? This article analyzes how spreading democracy would impact four different sets of underlying motivations that lead to this kind of terrorism. It will show that the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced because democracy will be unlikely to change perceptions of occupation, will itself threaten Islamic identity and culture, will be unlikely to mitigate economic grievances, and will be unlikely to provide a more legitimate government than one based on religious law.     

Terrorism Targeting Industrial Chemical Facilities: Strategic Motivations and the Implications for U.S. Security

Policy to reduce the threat of a terrorist attack against industrial chemical facilities—critical infrastructure with potential to cause mass casualties—is being driven by incomplete and, in some cases, incorrect assumptions. This article chronicles incidents by non-state actors directed at the chemical industry and explores the strategic considerations prompting groups to target the industry. By incorporating motivations for targeting infrastructure a more robust, comprehensive risk assessment is realized. Analysis challenging the “insider” threat paradigm and recommendations to ameliorate the potential effects are also presented. These are found to differ substantially from the leading policy measures currently advocated.     

恐怖主义:威胁全球的"政治瘟疫"——"9·11"后全球恐怖主义发展趋势

恐怖主义是一个具有浓重政治色彩的概念,往往附着于某个意识形态,通常是用来描述为了特定的政治或宗教目的有计划地使用暴力或威胁使用暴力来对抗普通平民或不特定的多数人的个人或集团,因此常被人们称之为"政治瘟疫"之称.今年是"9·11"事件5周年,世界各国纷纷开展活动纪念这一人类史上空前的大灾难.     

Terrorism and security in the Caribbean: The 1976 Cubana disaster off Barbados

Abstract

This study is an attempt to examine the Cubana airline crash in the light of political terrorism in the Caribbean. With respect to the selected case, the research endeavor will analyze the activities of the terrorists. In so doing, the writer will determine the category within which the Cubana airline disaster falls within Mickolus’ typology.¹ In addition, the motivation of the terrorists as well as limited aspects of some of the legal issues that arose with regard to the Cubana crash are discussed. Finally, there is some attempt to determine the effects of the Cubana disaster on the Caribbean and on Barbados in particular.     

论现代法治建设的要素

现代法治建设需要民主化的基础 ,需要一种谨慎而能够进行自我约束的立法权 ,需要一种以分权与平衡为基本特征的政治制度结构 ,需要一种普遍的法治意识以及对法律的尊重。为此 ,需要重建法律与政治的和谐。     

Struggling with the Challenges of Right-Wing Extremism and Terrorism within Democratic Boundaries: A Comparative Analysis

Since the 1990s, jihadist terrorists have leveraged the power of the Internet in more imaginative ways than state security services charged with countering them. Terrorist groups are now harnessing the unique characteristics of the new media environment that has taken shape in the past decade, while security services struggle to conceptualize this rapidly evolving virtual landscape. But new media offers unique opportunities to these services, particularly intelligence agencies, to confront the terrorist threat. Identifying and exploiting these opportunities, both strategic and tactical, will lend critical advantage to governments in their worldwide confrontation with global jihadists.     

The Grey Threat: Presence of Jihadist Terrorism and Failings in the Portuguese National Security System

This article starts by establishing a link between the nature of the threats created by jihadist terrorism and global organized crime and the investigation model used by Portuguese intelligence and police entities to detect and eliminate them. The visible manifestations of jihad terrorism and related organized crime recorded in Portugal since 2001 are also documented. The article goes on to analyze most recent theories produced on the importance of intelligence work and criminal investigation in combating these threats. On this basis, the article raises the hypothesis that Portugal's capacity to confront these threats has been dangerously weakened by the investigation powers constraints and conflicts of jurisdiction in the national security system, the lack of effective coordination in the whole system, and delays in the necessary reforms for over a decade.     

The Drama of Media Coverage of Terrorism: Emotional and Attitudinal Impact on the Audience

The symbiotic relationship between terrorism and its media coverage is explored from the perspective of audience reactions. In an empirical study, effects of television broadcasts of terrorism on viewers’ emotional and attitudinal reactions are examined. Participants were 300 Israeli adults randomly allocated to terrorism or violent nonterrorism broadcasts. Anxiety, anger, stereotypes, and enemy perception were measured prior and subsequent to media exposure. Findings revealed higher levels of both emotional and attitudinal measures consequent to the terrorism versus nonterrorism media exposure. These findings reflect the significant emotional and attitudinal impact on the audience of terrorism's mechanism of self-empowerment via the media.     

The Internet in Indonesia: Development and Impact of Radical Websites

The Internet has become a crucial part of modern society's life due to its ability to facilitate communication and structure contemporary society. Indonesia has not been left out of this global phenomenon. The Internet came to Indonesia in 1983 and its usage has continued to expand ever since, especially within institutions of learning and in the government sector. The study of radical websites must be situated within the development of the Internet in Indonesia in general instead of being examined by itself. The impact of certain activities such as cyberterrorism must then be examined in perspective, given the vast expanse of Indonesia as an archipelago and the resulting difficulties in linking the entire country to the Internet. This article seeks to trace the development of the Internet in Indonesia and examine the resulting impact on the reach of the radical Bahasa Indonesia Islamic websites in the Indonesian Archipelago and beyond. It also highlights typical narrative and operations of the radical websites, which serves to distinguish them from radical websites from elsewhere, such as the Middle East.