Measuring Success in Coping with Terrorism: The Israeli Case

This article examines the degree of efficacy of Israel's antiterror policies and ability to cope with terrorism using seven parameters that fall into seven parameters: reduction in civilian casualties among Israelis and Palestinians, Israel's ability to cope economically, Israeli social cohesion, the status of international and domestic support for the Israeli government and the extent of weakening of international and domestic support for the Palestinian leadership. The article concludes that based on most of these parameters, Israel has been successful in coping with terrorism, although greater security must be attained through a change in Palestinian policies.     

Pushing the frontiers of state audit: political auditing by Israel's state comptroller

Israel's State Comptroller has audited the political behaviors of elected officials and private citizens, in what are departures from its own traditions and those of other state auditors. Political auditing seems likely to appear among other auditors, sooner or later. Auditing is likely to attract more attention from political scientists, and the politics of auditing is likely to become an increasing topic of inquiry, as politics becomes more prominent on the auditor's agenda. The criticism directed at Israel's State Comptroller can be read to suggest the problems inherent in this expansion of audit activity.     

The Lebanese Hizballah and Israeli Counterterrorism

This article examines Israel's attempts to weaken and defeat the Lebanese Hizballah. It reviews Hizballah's rise after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hizballah's successful effort to force Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000, the 2006 war, and Israeli attempts to deter Hizballah. The article argues that Israel has largely failed to defeat Hizballah militarily and politically. Israel's experience offers lessons for how terrorist groups learn, the effectiveness of terrorist attrition strategies against casualty-sensitivity states, the difficulties in coercing terrorist groups, and the importance of an information strategy. Finally, Israel's clash with Hizballah indicates the importance of thinking of groups that are large and multi-faceted from a counterinsurgency paradigm.     

THE THIRD SECTOR AND IMMIGRANT ABSORPTION: LESSONS FROM THE ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

This paper deals with the role of two third sector organizations in immigrant absorption in Israel during the mid-1980s through 1993. The Jewish Agency, a non-governmental, voluntary, non-profit “public institution” funded by Diaspora Jewry had responsibility for immigrants during their first year in the country. It represented world Jewry and Israeli political parties. A second third sector institution, the quasi-public party controlled state religious school system played a significant role in the education of Ethiopian immigrant children.

The paper evaluates their impact on the absorption of immigrants. To what extent did these third sector agencies pursue their own agendas and or serve the immigrants? The paper also examines the influence of Israel's political-administrative systems on the third sector. How unique is the Israeli experience? Hopefully the findings will shed new light on the politics of collaboration with the third sector in contemporary Israel.

Evidence presented here suggests that third sector absorbing agencies often pursued their own interests at the expense of the immigrants. The paper also reveals the complexity of the political and administrative character of Israel's third sector. Finally, the analysis shows the importance of political-administrative systems for understanding third sector collaboration in Israel.     

The growing challenges of providing pensions to state and local civil servants in an aging society

Much hope has been placed in the ability of Supreme Audit Institutions (SAIs) to enhance public accountability. SAIs' independence and professionalism lend promise to the chance that they might succeed where program budgeting, program evaluation, performance measurement and strengthened legislative oversight have failed. Little attention has been paid in the literature to political and organizational constraints on the ability of SAIs to enhance public accountability. The article examines the contribution of Israel's State Comptroller to enhanced accountability across three measures: audit coverage; type of audit coverage; and use of audit reports by the Knesset (Israel's parliament). Programs connected with crisis situations, large programs and direct provision programs are found to receive significantly more audit attention. The Comptroller conducted few audits of program effectiveness. The few reports used by the Knesset were almost all connected with crisis situations. Exploration of the reasons for these patterns reveals that: organizational politics considerations limit the willingness of state auditors to conduct effectiveness audits and relate to controversial issues; logistical and political considerations of Members of Knesset limit their interest in using audit reports; and the paucity of audit resources relative to the scope of government means that much activity is not scrutinized.     

Counterterrorism research and development

An effective de-radicalization process in prisons is intended to facilitate the renouncement of violence and terrorism by those that have carried out such offenses. A key lesson that can be drawn from Israel's de-radicalization efforts is that it is possible, indeed recommended, to treat inmates—regardless of their level of radicalization—in a dignified and humane manner. However, Israel's ability to significantly de-radicalize security prisoners is limited if it is at all existent in its current form. Security prisoners with the potential for positive change should be placed in a different, perhaps foreign setting. This article provides an overview of Israel's prison system, the challenges it faces, its efforts to de-radicalize security inmates and suggests additional courses of action.     

Do Targeted Assassinations Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel's Controversial Tactic during Al-Aqsa Uprising 1

We assess the impact of Israel's targeted assassinations policy on rates of Palestinian violence from September 2000, the beginning of Al-Aqsa uprising, through June 2004. Literature concerning the relationship between repression and rebellion suggests four plausible effects of targeted assassinations on insurgents: deterrence, backlash, disruption, and incapacitation. Using differenced and lagged time-series analysis, this article utilizes multiple and logistic regression to evaluate the effect of targeted assassinations on Palestinian violence. It is concluded that targeted assassinations have no significant impact on rates of Palestinian attacks. Targeted assassinations do not decrease rates of Palestinian violence, nor do they increase them, whether in the short or long run. Targeted assassinations may be useful as a political tool to signal a state's determination to punish terrorists and placate an angry public, but there is little evidence that they actually impact the course of an insurgency.     

Demography and transfer: Israel's road to nowhere

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, which dates back to the latter part of the nineteenth century, has always been a conflict over land and population balance. At the start of the twenty-first century, with no end in sight to the conflict, the issue of demography stares both sides in the face. Israel's ability to maintain military and economic superiority over neighbouring Arab countries in general and the Palestinians in particular is matched by its inability to maintain long-term numerical superiority in the areas it holds west of the Jordan River. It is expected that within 10 to 15 years there will be parity between the Arabs and the 5.5 million Jews who currently live in historical Palestine. While discussion of Arab population transfer has been relegated to internal debates among Zionist leaders, the idea itself has always remained a key element in Zionist thinking of ways to solve the demography problem and ensure Jewish population dominance. A recent decline in Jewish immigration to Israel, the rise of the religious-political right, continuing Jewish settlement in the West Bank and Gaza and the recent Palestinian uprising have moved this debate to the public arena. Fractions among Israel's intellectuals, political figures and Sharon government ministers have raised the demography issue publicly, calling openly for the transfer of the Palestinian population to Jordan.     

The overloaded state

The conditions that produced Israel's strong state and the implications of that state are not likely to be replicated elsewhere, exactly. However, Israel's case offers some general lessons that ought to be considered by advocates of a strong bureaucratic state, as suggested by the New Public Administration of the 1968 Min-nowbrook Conference. These include: poor management of public enterprises and social services; high inflation; politicization of public sector employment; a plethora of centrally defined rules, many of which are evaded in the interests of flexible administration; lack of moderation in policy demands; and perpetuation of the state's dominance of the economy as it becomes the first resort of groups in distress.

This essay explores conditions in Israel for a movement in the academic profession of public administration whose roots and principal focus have been in the United States.

The self-proclaimed New Public Administration in the United States began with the Minnowbrook Conference in New York in September 1968. The mood of many conferees was antagonistic to the political establishment that seemed more intent on pursuing an unpopular war and maintaining law and order than in responding to demands for domestic social services. Several papers and much of the discussion stressed the need for public administrators to take upon themselves the articulation of, and response to, demands that had not found effective representation among the elective legislators and chief executive.⁽¹⁾

Here the concern is with those aspects of the Minnowbrook perspective that imply both more responsibility and more power for government bureaucrats.

Israel has what may be the most powerful bureaucracy in all of the democracies. Israel's special history and circumstances make its details unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. Nonetheless, it suggests lessons for those who would strengthen the bureaucracies of other countries.

There are positive and negative features of a powerful state. In a society that is relatively homogeneous, feels beselt by outsiders, and whose cultural and religious values shape the character of public policy, as in the Israeli case, the balance of a powerful state may be positive. Even in such a case, however, there are negative features of the strong state. Those who do not feel themselves in tune with the majority of the moment may pay a great price in the sacrifice of what they feel are their legitimate rights. In a heterogeneous country that is divided by a great plurality of world views, and where a individualistic, free-market tradition is prominent, as in the American case, the consequences of a powerful state may be severe.⁽²⁾

There may be no lessons in the Israeli case that are simple and direct. Yet the weight of the more general warnings may justify this exercise.     

Neo-liberalism and Domestic Capital: The Political Outcomes of the Economic Crisis in Thailand

The 1997 economic crisis in Thailand provided an opportunity for a reinvigoration of neo-liberal economic policies. International financial institutions, together with Thailand's Democrat-led government, emphasised further market reforms, liberalisation, deregulation, decentralisation, privatisation and a reduced role for the state. The deep economic downturn saw a popular rejection of such policies, meaning that the neo-liberal interregnum was short-lived. The 2001 landslide electoral victory of the Thai Rak Thai Party symbolised the intensity of opposition to neo-liberalism. It also showed that national governments remain critical in shaping markets and that domestic economic actors continue to have significant political roles. In Thailand, far from neutering domestic capital's political capacity, the crisis and opposition to neo-liberalism saw this enhanced. One reason for this was that neo-liberal restructuring was not simply about the efficient operation of the market. Rather, it demanded a fundamental transformation of the operations of government and of the ways that business was organised and conducted. This threatened domestic capital. Its economic survival required that it seize the state so that it could control economic policy-making. This was achieved through the Thai Rak Thai electoral victory and its subsequent rule, where the protection of domestic capital's interests was achieved through a re-negotiation of its social contract with other classes.     

The OSCE as an agent of socialisation? International norm Dynamics and political change in Central Asia

This article uses both rationalist and constructivist approaches to explain the OSCE's potential to socialise Central Asia to the norms of liberal human rights and democracy. Whereas from a rational point of view socialisation consists of a process of reinforcement, and its effectiveness depends on the balance between the international and domestic costs and benefits of norm compliance, the constructivist pathway emphasises the legitimacy and domestic resonance of the international norms, and the identity and cognitive prior attitudes of the target actors. By examining the explanatory factors for successful socialisation suggested by both mechanisms it is found that the prospects for domestic change are bleak and hampered by Central Asia's autochthon culture and institutions as well as the OSCE's ineffectiveness in providing tangible material and political incentives. Recommendations concentrate on a better understanding of the cost – benefit calculations of incumbent elites and on a more responsive attitude to Central Asia's non-European political culture.     

Policy termination: uncovering the ideological dimension

deLeon and others assert that progress in policy termination research requires an emphasis on political-ideological reasons for termination. One obstacle to pursuing this line of inquiry is that cases of successful policy termination are relatively rare. As a useful alternative, one could examine cases in which ideology has apparently prevented a strongly indicated policy termination. An example is the Israeli Labor government's decision to bail out Israel's failing kibbutzim (collectives) despite severe budget pressures and the near-certainty that some kibbutzim will still not become self-supporting. Labor will not terminate its policy of support because, although the kibbutzim's direct political power is diminished, they retain substantial moral authority as past nation- builders and as embodiments of Labor's socialist/humanist ideals. Anomalous non-terminations such as this should offer rich possibilities for policy termination research.     

Israeli State Violence during the Second Intifada: Combining New Institutionalist and Rational Choice Approaches

In attempting to explain Israel's retaliatory policies toward Palestinian violence, new institutionalist and rational choice theories vie for dominance. This article argues that both approaches can contribute to understanding the severity of Israel's response if they are viewed as nested explanations appropriate to different threat levels. The article makes its case using data from 74 interviews with senior Israeli counterterrorist experts (2006–07), counts of Israeli and Palestinian fatalities due to state and collective violence (1987–2007), and a database of collective violence events during the Second Intifada (2000–05). Institutional effects are evident at low threat levels, as new institutionalists predict, but these effects are overwhelmed at high threat levels, as rational choice theorists assert.     

The Memory of Katyn in Polish Political Discourse: A Quantitative Study

This study uses quantitative methods to explore how the memory of Katyn is mobilised in political discourse. The scholarly literature on memory conflict tends to see international memory disputes as an expression of a state's interests as a whole; this study analyses when hostile rhetoric is mobilised and finds that in Poland Katyn is invoked as part of an opposition strategy that criticises the incumbent regime for undermining the national interest. Periods of accelerated debate about the significance of Katyn have occurred as political elites sought to achieve specific domestic rather than foreign political goals.     

A Study of Vladimir Putin’s Rhetoric

Abstract

This article analyses the political rhetoric of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholars and journalists have devoted considerable space to discussing Putin's policies, but have paid little attention to his political speeches, often assuming that he is purely a pragmatist and that his rhetoric is therefore of little interest. This article argues that a comprehensive analysis of rhetoric helps to reveal Putin's political and ideological orientation. To do so, the article carries out a systematic examination of Putin's political speeches and interviews, and shows that Putin has demonstrated an overall consistency in the general line of his views, albeit with certain changes within that line. Therefore his rhetoric is more than an instrument to confuse political opponents and should be taken seriously as an indication of Putin's policy direction.     

Reformation of a Terrorist Group: Hezbollah as a Lebanese Political Party

Despite the classification of Hezbollah as a terrorist group by several states, Hezbollah is recognized as a legitimate political party within Lebanon. The purpose of this article is to probe at the reasons why Hezbollah was able to achieve its current status in the Lebanese government while it still maintains a powerful, well armed military branch that has used force recently to influence Lebanese politics. An examination of Hezbollah's life cycle suggests that two major factors were decisive: 1) Hezbollah's political leverage over the majority government, and 2) choices by Hezbollah's leaders to moderate their objectives to achieve domestic political goals.     

Terrorist Sanctuaries and Bosnia-Herzegovina: Challenging Conventional Assumptions

This article argues that a model of terrorism and terrorist sanctuaries rooted in post-9/11 strategic thought and the Global War on Terror is inadequate to the study of terrorism in Bosnia and the Balkans. It addresses a series of conventional assumptions regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina's status as a putative terrorist sanctuary, based on a reading of post-war ethnic politics and political architecture. This assessment turns on the basic notion that terrorism in Bosnia is a complex phenomenon linked to multiple domestic and foreign communities, defined along competing national trajectories and intersecting foreign interests, and subject to evolving political circumstances and priorities.     

Electoral breakthroughs in Croatia and Serbia: Women's organizing and international assistance

This article investigates the role of women's organizations and activists in the electoral breakthroughs in Serbia and Croatia in 2000. When, how, and to what effect, it asks, did women organize during transformational moments to promote their goals of political liberalization and gender equality? I argue that political opportunities—shaped by the domestic constellation of forces and international assistance programs—are essential to explaining political success. I identify what I call the insider/inclusionary strategy that characterizes women's organizing in Croatia and the outsider/oppositional strategy that characterizes women's organizing in Serbia. These strategies resulted in different immediate outcomes for women's political equality in the electoral breakthroughs in Croatia and Serbia.     

From domestic to international: the politics of ethnic identity in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia

This paper examines two contrasting cases of ethnic-group political activism in China – the Uighurs in Xinjiang and the Mongols in Inner Mongolia – to explain the former's political activism and the latter's lack thereof. Given similar challenges and pressures, how can we explain the divergent patterns in these two groups' political behavior? This paper forwards the argument that domestic factors alone are not sufficient to account for differences in the groups' political behavior. Instead, international factors have to be included to offer a fuller and satisfactory explanation. The paper illustrates how three types of international factors – big power support, external cultural ties, and Uighur diaspora community activism – have provided opportunities and resources to make the Uighur political activism sustainable. In Inner Mongolia, its quest for self-determination reached the highest fervor in the early half of the twentieth century, particularly with the support of imperial Japan. However, since the end of WWII, Inner Mongolia has not received any consistent international support and, as a result, has been more substantially incorporated into China's geopolitical body.     

International sanctions against Iran and Tehran's responses: political effects on the targeted regime

This article seeks to explain the combined political effects of international sanctions against Iran and Tehran's domestic responses on the power structure of the targeted regime. It contends that although sanctions have contributed to elite infighting in Iran, they have not weakened the targeted regime. The Iranian leadership's modified reading of the imposed sanctions from targeted United Nations, US and European Union (EU) nonproliferation sanctions as an opportunity to develop indigenous nuclear capabilities to the perception of comprehensive and coordinated US and EU sanctions as regime change efforts marked a critical juncture. Tehran's adjusted responses to these sanctions, shaped by the interplay between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, affected Iran's balance of power to the detriment of the outgoing president and his faction. This impact sheds a light on the workings of a targeted hybrid regime under intensive sanction pressure.