The public opinion–foreign policy paradox in Germany: integrating domestic and international levels of analysis conditionally

Abstract

Does public opinion influence foreign policy? International relations theory is divided on whether foreign policy outputs follow public opinion in advanced democratic countries. Using the case of cold war and post-cold war Germany, I offer an integrated realist theory of the effect of public opinion on foreign policy. I test the theory and the generalizability of the hypothesis of a public opinion–foreign policy nexus using process tracing as well as a time series analysis between the years 1973 and 2002. Using new measures, results here contradict literature on expected public opinion and policy outputs in the cold war period yet are supported after. I find that the predicted effect of public opinion on foreign policy outputs to be confounded by such factors as security threats.     

Special Emphasis: Agenda‐Setting Research—20 Year Birthday

“Special Emphasis: Agenda‐Setting Research—20 Year Birthday,” Journalism Quarterly, 69, 4 (Winter 1992), 813–920.     

Legitimate Power in a Mediated Age: Revisiting Carl J. Friedrich's “Authority,Reason and Discretion”

Although scholars of political communication study legitimacy and power consistently, we often overlook older works on the topic from political theory and philosophy that might give us guidance in a mediated age. Friedrich was a contemporary of Lazarsfeld, Merton, and so many of the great 20th-century social scientists we look to as providing the foundations for our field. This essay asks that we go back to Friedrich as well, and to others who found authority to be one of our most complex and important social phenomena.     

A critical analysis of the NBC news special “six days plus twenty years: A dream is dying”

The July 1, 1987 NBC News documentary on Israel's occupation of the West Bank neglected the context of the occupation, failing to give any historical perspective on the Israeli‐Palestinian dispute. The nature of the Palestinian opposition— characterized by intransigence and violence—was virtually ignored by NBC. The unbalanced coverage of the conflict served only to confuse the viewer and distort the salient issues involved.     

On the use of play theory in analyses of online public commentary

Abstract

The concept of play mediates between deliberation as a mode of reason and resistance as a mode of culture, thus opening a way to think about hostile comment (e.g., ‘flaming’) on online news forums as normal patterns of behaviour, instead of a departure from the received view of how citizens ought to consider matters of public interest. The play concept corresponds with current thinking around the notion of cultural citizenship. To illustrate the relevance of play theory in the analysis of online political discourse, this article uses an example from recent posts concerning the Protection of Information Bill (POIB) in the online site of the South African Mail & Guardian newspaper. The cogency of play theory to the concept of citizenship is argued through a discussion of how citizenship has been understood from the 1930s to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the improved capacities of information and communications technologies (ICTs) made online deliberation a normal site for citizenship to be exercised.     

Countering Implicit Appeals: Which Strategies Work?

Some contemporary politicians try to mobilize racial attitudes by conveying implicit racial messages against their opponents—messages in which the racial reference is subtle but recognizable and which attack the opponent for alleged misdeeds. Although targeted politicians have tried a number of different strategies to respond to implicit racial appeals, little is known about the effectiveness of these strategies. Using two survey experiments, we answer the following question: Does calling the appeal “racial” work? That is, does it neutralize the negative effects on the attacked candidate? We find mixed evidence that it does. However, offering a credible justification for the attacked behavior works more consistently. We also test whether effects vary by candidate race. The results suggest that Black candidates’ rhetorical strategies are more constrained than identical White candidates’, but that White Americans are more open to credible arguments and justifications than the previous literature implies.     

Public opinion as a dependent variable: A framework for analysis

This paper outlines an approach to examining how public opinion is taken into consideration by political and governmental leaders and reviews recent studies that have followed this approach to evaluate the extent to which public opinion is subject to manipulation by political elites in diverse circumstances. The central idea of this approach is to treat public opinion as a “dependent variable” and to examine the role of the mass media in linking elite initiatives and the public. Instead of starting with polls that presume public opinion is an independent force, we start with elites and presume that they try to manipulate public opinion through the mass media and by other means. First, we look at why the emphasis on the independent nature of public opinion has become so prominent in political science. We argue here that viewing public opinion as a dependent variable is a more promising perspective. Next, we review and evaluate a number of studies that attempt to demonstrate the fruitfulness of our suggested approach. Each of the studies analyzed focuses on the initiatives of political elites and monitors the success of their efforts with targeted groups. These studies demonstrate the conditions that favor elite control as well as the opportunities for citizens to limit such control. In our conclusion, we outline a theory of the role of public opinion in modern mass democracies.     

关于优先建立“东北亚投资合作区”的理论构想

东北亚区域合作的发展,要求有更为实质性的步骤和制度安排的出现,但目前,该区域的一体化进程还受到很多外在因素的困扰。这其中,建立一体化的贸易自由区和快速、大量地引入大型跨国公司是最为迫切需要解决的问题。先行建立投资合作区,再推进自由贸易区建设的理论是可行的,目前最适宜建立区域投资合作区的地域就是大图们江流域地区。     

勃列日涅夫时期苏联对斯大林的再评价问题

经历了赫鲁晓夫的“解冻”,勃列日涅夫时期对斯大林的重新评价问题显得非常突出。从1964年到1982年,分三个阶段,勃列日涅夫时期对斯大林的态度发生了明显的转变。从最开始的维护苏共20大、22大决议到最后实质上为他恢复个人名誉,但在形式上却没有太大的变化。     

Following the Party in Time of War? The Implications of Elite Consensus

Prominent perspectives in the study of conflict point to two factors that exert substantial influence on public opinion about foreign intervention: (1) news about casualties and (2) signals from partisan elites. Past work is limited, however, in what it can say about how these two factors interact. We present an experiment designed to understand the surprisingly common scenario where elites send competing messages about whether the public should support war or oppose it—and these messages do not coincide with party divisions. We find that partisans are generally insensitive to news about casualties, but they become noticeably more sensitive when they perceive within-party disputes over support for the war. Independents, however, respond to news of casualties irrespective of what messages elites send. These findings shed light on when and how the public responds to competing and unclear cues and speak to the role of public opinion in determining conflict outcomes and democratic foreign policy-making more broadly.     

从严格管制-放松管制-加强监管:澳大利亚金融改革试析

澳大利亚的金融体制是在仿效英国金融制度的基础上逐步发展起来的,战后其金融管理体制经历了从严格管制到放松管制再到加强监管的改革,每次改革均较好地适应了当时国际金融业发展的大趋势,因而较好地推动了澳大利亚经济和金融业的发展。澳大利亚80年代的金融自由化改革由于其改革力度之大、放松管制之迅速全面均走在其他发达国家的前列而引起世人的注目,90年代的金融改革强调加强金融监管使其成功克服了亚洲金融危机的袭击,因而受到世界的赞誉。本文拟对澳大利亚的金融改革作些分析与探讨,为我国的金融改革提供某些可资借鉴的经验。