Post-9/11 Responses to Mass Casualty Bombings in Europe: Lessons,Trends and Implications for the United States

This report analyzes the actions taken by emergency responders in three case studies of post-9/11 terrorist attacks in Europe (Istanbul [2003], Madrid [2004] and London [2005]). It also assesses the targeting and tactical information gleaned from three European plots that either failed or were foiled by authorities. The focus of this report is on mass casualty, complex attack scenarios involving explosive or incendiary materials. Although such attacks are not limited to one particular strand of terrorism, the case studies assessed in this report are linked to or inspired by the global jihadist movement spearheaded by the al Qaeda network, since this currently constitutes the most significant threat of mass casualty bombings to the United States.     

Mass Casualty Potential of Qassam Rockets

In spite of the bombardment of southern Israel by thousands of Qassam rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, comparatively few people have been injured or killed. This has led some observers to dismiss Qassams as more of a symbolic than lethal threat. However, southern Israeli towns feature robust civil defense systems that include safe rooms, bomb shelters, early detection alarms, and missile defense. How many casualties would occur were such systems not in place? This article applies shrapnel-casualty and spatial allocation models to the population of the southern Israeli town of Sderot to estimate casualties per randomly aimed rocket fired into the unprepared town; that is, in the absence of civil defense (technical details appear in the Appendix). Assuming an injury radius of only 5 meters from impact, the modeled expected casualties per rocket are between three (best-case) and nine (worst-case) times higher than Sderot's observed casualties-to-rocket ratio, suggesting that Qassam-like terror attacks on unprotected urban locations could prove much more serious than what one would expect based solely on the observed number of casualties in Sderot.     

A Historical Analysis of Mass Casualty Bombers

Over the past two decades repeated attempts have been made to identify the next "new" form of terrorism, but all have come up short. Modern terrorism is not about the next trend, but is--and long has been--characterized by mass casualty bombers (defined as those terrorist groups that have killed 25 or more people in a bombing attack). When compared to other "new" terrorists, mass casualty bombers are more prolific than state-sponsored terrorists, more deadly than suicide terrorists, more identifiable than religious terrorists, and more plausible than CBRN terrorists. Mass casualty bombers have long presented the greatest terrorist threat to international peace and security and will likely continue to do so in the future.     

Comparing Motives and Outcomes of Mass Casualty Terrorism Involving Conventional and Unconventional Weapons

Western intelligence analysts fight an uphill battle to avoid parochial habits of thought that lump diverse Islamist identities together. The recent counterterrorism literature gives us tools for understanding a wide spectrum of Islamists, by focusing attention on what they say about themselves rather than on the intelligence labels we must ultimately assign to them. The main challenge for analysts is not the brute diversity of Islamist types, but their plasticity—the Islamist's flexible inhabitation of distinct, sometimes contradictory, identities. Contrary to generalizations about the duplicity of all Islamists, much plasticity is due to ordinary psychological- or ideological strain—the inability to resolve divided allegiances or sustain conflicted principles. Islamist preacher Yussef al-Qardawi and salafist group Hizb ut-Tahrir present prime examples of ordinary Islamist plasticity. In order to understand Islamism in all its complexity, analysts should develop methods for disaggregating and evaluating key components of the Islamist persona.     

Deconstructing the Shariatic Justification of Suicide Bombings

Deconstructing the shariatic justification of suicide bombings reveals a standard reasoning based on four arguments. Two of them relativize the shariatic prohibition against suicide whereas the other two analogize suicide bombings with the medieval combat tactic of plunging alone into the enemy. Prerequisites of a “martyrdom operation” are the suicide bomber's intention to seek martyrdom and his ability to damage the enemy. The reasoning declares the killing of oneself for the sake of Islam permissible and thereby distinguishes “martyrdom operations” from suicide. Deconstructing this and other Islamist doctrines of violence can be of operational use to intelligence and criminal investigations.     

Intelligence Methodologies Applicable to the Madrid Train Bombings, 2004

You Gotta know when to hold

Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali: "One Hell of a Gamble:” Khrushchev, Castro and Kennedy 1958–1964, W.W. Norton and Company, New York, 1997, 408 p., $27.50.

Encyclopedic hits and misses

Norman Polmar and Thomas B. Allen: Spy Book: The Encyclopedia of Espionage, Random House, New York, 1997, 633 pp., $30.00

Political arithmetic and cyberterrorism

Winn Schwartau: Information Warfare; Cyberterrorism: Protecting Your Personal Security in the Electronic Age, New York: Thunder's Mouth Press, (2nd ed., p.b.) 1996; 768 p. $16.95.

Snooping around Asia

Peter Elphick: Far Eastern File: The Intelligence War in the Far East, 1930–1945, Hodder and Stoughton, London, 1997, 510 p., S$47.95.     

Jihadi Strategic Studies: The Alleged Al Qaida Policy Study Preceding the Madrid Bombings

This article analyzes an Al Qaida strategy document about Iraq that received considerable attention after the Madrid bombings because of its references to the Spanish elections. The current article discusses the origin, content, and significance of the document and argues that it represents a hitherto unidentified genre in radical Islamist literature, namely "jihadi strategic studies." The text, which is secular in style, analytical in its approach, and pragmatic in its conclusions, displays a level of political awareness that breaks with most preconceptions about religious fundamentalist thought. Moreover, it dispels the myth of a unified and coherent "Al Qaida ideology."‐     

After the Madrid Bombings: Internal Security Reforms and Prevention of Global Terrorism in Spain

Approaching the Madrid train bombings of 11 March 2004 from a security perspective, the occurrence of these highly lethal blasts made it evident not only a major intelligence failure, but also serious problems in the coordination between law enforcement agencies and deficiencies in international cooperation to prevent such deadly manifestations of global terrorism. As a result, governmental measures adopted in Spain immediately afterwards to reform the internal security structures and thus more adequately face the persisting risks and threats associated with that phenomenon, paid particular attention to increasing intelligence capabilities, advancing antiterrorist coordination and strengthening collaboration with relevant nations, alongside other initiatives aimed at preventing and countering al-Qaeda related terrorist activities. Overall, those measures enjoyed a high degree of legitimation among citizens.     

Radicalization and Subversion: Al Qaeda and the 7 July 2005 Bombings and the 2006 Airline Bombing Plot

This article analyzes the suicide bomb attacks on four London transportation targets on 7 July 2005 and the plot to bomb simultaneously at least seven American and Canadian passenger airliners as they departed from London's Heathrow Airport. American, British, and Pakistani authorities thwarted this planned attack in August 2006. Both incidents are among the most important Al Qaeda operations in recent years. Initially, they were dismissed by the authorities, pundits, and the media alike as the work of amateur terrorists—untrained “bunches of guys” acting entirely on their own with no links to Al Qaeda. Subsequent evidence, however, has come to light, which reveals clear links to senior Al Qaeda commanders operating in Pakistan's lawless frontier border area with Afghanistan.     

Mass destruction

How international organizations influence the domestic politics and foreign policies of states is often ignored in the study of international cooperation. This article develops an approach focusing on how states may influence the international agenda, which then shapes the position‐taking opportunities and constraints politicians face as they try to maintain their domestic political positions. This article is a preliminary exploration of how agenda setting works, what kinds of agenda‐setting strategies are available, and under what conditions agenda setting matters. Aspects of past secessionist crises will be used to clarify the discussion. The interaction between domestic position taking and international agenda setting will then be applied to the current crisis in Yugoslavia to determine why Greece, in particular, has been more influential than one might have expected.     

Mass homicide and suicide deadliness and outcome

A study of 98 lone, rampage killers in the United States from 1949 to 1999 found that those who were killed by police officers killed and wounded more victims than those who completed suicide who, in turn, killed or wounded more victims than those who were captured. Those rampage killers who completed suicide were less likely to be judged schizophrenic and more likely to be killing present or former co-workers.     

“三本”的隐喻与群体性的抗争——基于HK学生罢课事件的社会心理学解读

在现实社会的演绎中,三本作为一种符号与其他因素勾连在一起,逐步隐喻化,不再单纯指称学历和学位,而是征显出一种道德评判。这种道德评判激发学生产生上正真意义大学的群体性幻象,并诉诸于行动,学校若不能准确解读这种诉求,极可能引发群体性的抗争。     

V for Vendetta: Government Mass Killing and Domestic Terrorism

Scholarship explores the impact of human rights abuse and state repression on terrorism. Heretofore, scholarship has ignored the impact of government-sponsored killings on domestic terrorism. This article proposes that mass killings create a focal point for terrorist mobilization. The vendetta agenda fuels violence by animating retributory violence. Additionally, mass atrocities create a permissive environment for violent nonstate activity. A spiral of violence ensues whereby groups resort to terrorism. Utilizing data from the Global Terrorism Database, 1971–2011, the study shows that mass killings significantly increase domestic terrorism. It contributes to emerging scholarship examining how state policies influence terrorist activity.     

Mass political interest (or apathy) in urban China

Based on our reassessment of existing studies on political interest and apathy in various societies, we argue the urgent need for a more systematic and focused examination of mass political interest—as psychological involvement in politics—in China. Utilizing data collected from a public opinion survey conducted in Beijing, China in late 1995, we intend to shed some light on the level and sources of political interest in contemporary China. Contrary to the prevalent argument that most Chinese are politically apathetic, we have found that there was a rather high level of political interest within our sample. We have also found that both conventional variables (i.e. age, gender, education, income, political efficacy, and dissatisfaction with government performance) and variables unique to the Chinese setting (i.e. being a farmer, becoming a private entrepreneur, joining the Chinese Communist Party and holding leading position in the party/government) have significant effects on the levels of political interest.     

西方国家的政党与媒体关系分析

媒体与政党都是当今时代民主政治不可或缺的因素 ,西方国家政党和媒体的互动关系错综复杂 :媒体是政党政治运行的重要参与者 ,但又相对独立于政党 ;西方国家的政党和政党政治在新形势下发生了许多变化 ,不少政党主动调整了其同媒体的关系。