Trends in Transnational Terrorism and Implications for U.S. National Security and U.S. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act

The unprecedented losses brought about by the attacks of 11 September 2001 have cast the issue of terrorism risk insurance into sharp relief. In particular, it has raised questions as to whether attacks on this scale are an insurable risk and the extent to which the private insurance industry is able and/or willing to price such risks independent of a Federal safety net. Although the Bush administration has committed to renew the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) to offset the human and materiel costs that might result from future cataclysmic terrorist strikes taking place on U.S. soil, it is not apparent that this legislative framework is relevant to the type of extremist contingencies that the United States is likely to face over the short-to-medium term. Any long-term solution to providing insurance in America will necessarily need to go beyond TRIA's existing framework by dropping the “foreign interest” designation for certified attacks; including some sort of supplemental program that includes mandatory coverage for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) assaults; and investigating ways to increase the take-up rates of terrorism insurance by lowering its cost to the customer. An oversight board mandated to evaluate the Act's performance and relevance to evolving terrorist trends would also be useful.     

Terrorism and the U.S. energy infrastructure

James DeFronzo, Revolutions &; Revolutionary Movements (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991), 336 pp. $59.95.

David Scott Palmer, Ed., Shining Path of Peru (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1992), 271 pp. $45.00.

Stanley E. Spangler, Force and Accommodation in World Politics (Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: Air University Press, August 1991).

James J. Wirtz, The Tet Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991).

David Omissi, Air Power and Colonial Control: The Royal Air Force, 1919–1939 (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1990), 260 pp. $35.     

Democracy,Al Qaeda,and the Causes of Terrorism: A Strategic Analysis of U.S. Policy

How will the strategy of spreading democracy affect the threat of terrorism from Al Qaeda and likeminded Islamic extremist groups? This article analyzes how spreading democracy would impact four different sets of underlying motivations that lead to this kind of terrorism. It will show that the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced because democracy will be unlikely to change perceptions of occupation, will itself threaten Islamic identity and culture, will be unlikely to mitigate economic grievances, and will be unlikely to provide a more legitimate government than one based on religious law.     

U.S. Policy on Terrorism: In Search of an Answer

An analysis of three years of suicide bombing data in Israel reveals an increase in such attacks through March 2002 followed by a steep decline through the end of 2003. The authors propose a terror-stock model that treats the suicide bombing attack rate as a function of the number of terrorists available to plan and execute suicide bombings. The intent of Israeli tactics such as targeted killings and preemptive arrests is to reduce the capacity of terror organizations to commit attacks. When fit to the data, this model suggests that the targeted killing of terror suspects sparks estimated recruitment to the terror stock that increases rather than decreases the rate of suicide bombings. Surprisingly, only the deaths of suspected terrorists, and not Palestinian civilians, are associated with such estimated recruitment. Although Israeli actions have reduced the rate of suicide bombings over time, it is preventive arrests rather than targeted killings that seem more responsible for this outcome.     

The Evolution of the U.S. Government's Annual Report on Terrorism: A Personal Commentary

This article examines the evolution of a key U.S. Government annual publication on terrorism. From its inception in 1977 to the present, the U.S. Government's annual terrorism report has been the primary statistical compiler of international terrorist incidents. Given the magnitude of this task and the inherent difficulty in defining the term “terrorism,” this report has been controversial and criticized. Love it or hate it, for many decades, this report was the sole source of statistics on international terrorism. The author argues that despite its flaws, this unclassified annual report does provide value and usually paints a fairly accurate picture of the international terrorism landscape. Over the last two years however, there have been claims that this report has become politicized and tailored to fit the views of the administration on the terrorist threat. The author rejects this charge and claims that this publication has been objective and that it has evolved over time into a more credible and useful report.     

Palestinian Suicide Terrorism in the Second Intifada: Motivations and Organizational Aspects

Suicide terrorism has developed into a widely used tactic, and arguably one of the major strategic threats facing some countries. This article explores various issues related to Palestinian suicide terrorism by presenting a two-phase model to explain the processes and factors underlying the development of Palestinian suicide bombers, and the execution of suicide bombing attacks. The model is applied to the case of suicide attacks that have occurred in the course of the first 21 months of the Second Intifada, from September 2000 to June 2002. The assumptions of the model are tested by taking an in-depth look into the various motives leading individual Palestinians to volunteer for suicide missions, and by discussing the activities and major functions of the organizations that have employed this modus operandi in the specified time frame. It will be concluded that while a counter-terrorism strategy aimed at targeting terrorist organizations may offer short-term gains, in the long run Israel will need to identify ways of removing or reducing the incentives that lead some Palestinians to volunteer for suicide missions.     

21世纪美日贸易谈判及其对华影响

21世纪之初,美日两国相关领域专家曾就开启双边FTA谈判的可行性进行探讨;两国政府间谈判后来也终于启动。作为第一阶段贸易谈判的成果,《美日贸易协定》和《美日数字贸易协定》已于2020年1月1日正式生效。进入21世纪以来,美日贸易谈判得以启动,表面来看是美国为了降低与日本的巨额贸易赤字,利用追加汽车关税手段对日施压,日本被迫应允。实际上,美日贸易谈判的启动和发展是两国在经济利益、双边关系、地缘政治、权力博弈等多种动因综合作用下的结果。美日贸易谈判增加了美国重返TPP/CPTPP制衡中国的可能,为美日联手打造排除中国的数字贸易规则创造了条件,建立了不对称权力谈判的样板,并增大了日本在中、美之间实施战略摇摆的可能性。美日贸易谈判短期内对中国的影响并不明显,但从中长期来看,特别是在新冠肺炎疫情加速推动世界秩序重构、美日两国政府更替、RCEP签署、中欧投资协定谈判如期完成、中国表态积极考虑加入CPTPP并正就相关事项展开研究等新的国际政治经济形势下,会在多个方面产生较大影响。深入分析进入21世纪以来美日贸易谈判有助于中国及时妥善应对相关问题。     

Redefining a U.S.Strategy toward China:Smart Policy and its Implications

The redefinition of the U.S.policy toward China since Barack Obama’s election has been based on a compromise between elements of hard power(military,economy) and soft power(influence,dialogue,persuasion).This new posture has been defined by several experts and policymakers as asmart policy.However,considering the rise of China and its implications both at economic and political levels,what is the real margin of Washington in its relation with Beijing,and what are the long term implications of the smart policy? If the China policy is a priority for the Obama administration,the challenges for Washington are particularly sensitive, considering the consequences of a failure in implementing comprehensive China-U.S.relations.     

Al Qaeda Confronts Hamas: Divisions in the Sunni Jihadist Movement and its Implications for U.S. Policy

Almost eight years after the September 2001 attacks, U.S. counterterrorism strategy would benefit from a clearer definition of its adversaries. Some have suggested that U.S. counterterrorism policy focus primarily on Sunni jihadists. This term would account for groups such as Al Qaeda and the Abu Sayyaf Group in the Philippines, but not Shi'ite militias in Iraq or Hizbullah. Although any attempt to narrow the scope of U.S. counterterrorism strategy has merit, it is worth noting that important distinctions exist between the various groups. To explore these distinctions, this article examines the different historical trajectories and current arguments between two of the most well-known Sunni jihadists: Al Qaeda and Hamas.     

后金融危机阶段美国对华关系新定位与亚太地区安全战略调整

随着中国国际作用影响的迅速上升,适应中国和平崛起的态势,成为奥巴马政府对华关系新定位与调整亚太地区安全战略的重要背景条件。奥巴马上台后,中美关系大起大落,表明金融危机阶段的中关关系正在发生深刻变化,奥巴马政府第二个《中美联合声明》提升两国关系定位,对华政策呈现出从“接触加遏制”政策向“尊重加牵滞”政策调整的取向,美国亚太地区安全战略也进一步调整。这一战略调整,不能简单解读为以中国为主要战略目标。发展“相互尊重、互利共赢的合作伙伴关系”,是中美两国共同努力的目标,但是实现这一目标依然存在战略互信基础脆弱的局限。