Power Transitions,Status Dissatisfaction,and War: The Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895

Although power transition theory offers a powerful model of international conflict, scholars have not adequately operationalized the theory's key variable of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the status quo. We argue that status dissatisfaction is an important component of a rising state's overall dissatisfaction with the system. We apply our revised power transition framework to the 1894–1895 Sino-Japanese War. Japan's revisionist foreign policy was driven by economic and security threats posed by China's control over Korea, dissatisfaction with Japan's place in the China-dominated East Asian hierarchy, the hope for recognition as a great power by the West, status-related domestic pressures, and by belief change that was endogenous to shifting power. Despite several earlier crises, Japan made the decision for war only after it had achieved parity with China, which is consistent with power transition theory's hypothesis that under conditions of shifting power, parity is a necessary condition for war.     

The role of mercantilism, humanitarianism, and gaiatsu in Japan's ODA programme in Asia

Objective. Three competing explanations for the distributionof Japan's ODA in Asia are empirically examined in this paper.The first explanation hypothesizes that Japan reacts to US pressureand interests as it formulates its foreign aid policy. The competingexplanations argue that Japanese ODA is used to promote Japan'snational economic interests or humanitarian goals. Methods.We examine the determinants of Japanese ODA in 14 Asian countriesfor the period of 1979–1998. The effects of the independentvariables are estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) withpanel-corrected standard errors. Results. US strategic interestswere found to have no effect on aid disbursements for the periodin question. Rather, we find that Japan's national economicinterests have shaped Japanese aid decisions in Asia. The disbursementpattern of Japanese ODA is also influenced by poverty in therecipient country. Employing measures from the Political TerrorScale, Freedom House, and Polity IV, we find no effect for democracyor human rights.     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

Feminism and Constructivism: Worlds Apart or Sharing the Middle Ground?

The discipline of international relations (IR) is witnessing a "constructivist turn." In this article, we argue that the new preoccupation with constructivism provides a unique opportunity to further understanding between feminism and the IR mainstream. Feminism and constructivism share a commitment to an ontology of becoming that can serve as a common basis for conversation. Yet there are also profound differences between feminists and constructivists. First, most IR feminists approach gender and power as integral elements in processes of construction, whereas most constructivists consider power to be external to such processes. This failure to conceptualize power and gender as social and pervasive leads constructivists to miss an important part of the empirical reality of power politics. Second, constructivists tend to ignore the implications of a postpositivist epistemology, whereas for feminists the question of "Who knows?" is crucial. We argue that the constructivist failure to problematize the research process as a social (and therefore political) process of construction is logically inconsistent with an ontology of becoming. We introduce empirical materials to illustrate the advantages of feminist approaches. We hope to advance a dialogue between feminism and constructivism because the two approaches add to each other and in combination can yield better theoretical and empirical understandings of the world.     

Justice institutions in autocracies: a framework for analysis

What role do justice institutions play in autocracies? We bring together the literatures on authoritarian political institutions and on judicial politics to create a framework to answer this question. We start from the premise that autocrats use justice institutions to deal with the fundamental problems of control and power-sharing. Unpacking “justice institutions” we argue that prosecutors and ordinary courts can serve, respectively, as “top-down” and “bottom-up” monitoring and information-gathering mechanisms helping the dictator in the choice between repression and cooptation. We also argue that representation in the Supreme Court and special jurisdictions enables the dictator and his ruling coalition to solve intra-elite conflicts facilitating coordination. We provide several examples from Mexico under the hegemonic system of the PRI and of Spain under Francisco Franco, as well as punctual illustrations from other countries around the world. We conclude by reflecting on some of the potential consequences of this usage of justice institutions under autocracy for democratization.     

If Not Soft Balancing,Then What? Reconsidering Soft Balancing and U.S. Policy Toward China

Some scholars argue that soft balancing is a typical state behavior against the hegemon under unipolarity. Others contend that soft balancing against the hegemon is ineffective. We challenge both arguments and suggest that soft balancing is not only a product of specific configurations of the power distribution in the system, unipolarity, but also a rational behavior under another condition, economic dependence. We argue that the interplay between power disparity and economic dependence shapes a state's decision in choosing different balancing strategies. The higher the power disparity and economic dependence, the more likely a state chooses soft balancing to pursue its security. Using U.S. policy toward China after the Cold War as a crucial test, we suggest that the huge power gap and increasing economic interdependence between the United States and China shape U.S. soft balancing rather than hard balancing toward China. We conclude that future U.S.-China relations depend on whether the United States declines as a result of China's rise and on the degree of economic interdependence between the two countries.     

Promoting democracy in Ghana: exploring the democratic roles of donor-sponsored non-governmental organizations

This article examines the democratic roles performed by Ghanaian non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Drawing on a comparative case study approach, it explores how the organizational characteristics of five donor-sponsored NGOs relate to their ability to perform different democratic roles. Our analysis reveals that some of the democratic roles require contradicting organizational characteristics, which are therefore difficult to combine within one organization. Furthermore, it demonstrates that these NGOs do not contribute to democracy as predicted by theory. In particular, they are weak at providing channels of communication between state and society, and at directly representing, involving, and being accountable to ordinary citizens. We argue, nevertheless, that they perform these functions in a different way.     

Judicial independence and state-business relations: the case of Taiwan’s ordinary courts

The question of how ordinary courts in new and emerging democracies may gain judicial independence remains an understudied subject compared to its constitutional court counterpart. Through a case study of Taiwan, this article adopts and expands upon the concept of power diffusion from the extant literature, arguing that the growing power of Taiwan’s private corporate sector led the dominant political party Kuomintang (KMT) to grant independence to the ordinary courts as a means to check against this threat, because the excessive rent-seeking and corruption brought about by these empowered corporations were threatening the nation’s successful economic model and its rule of law. Also, due to the corporate sector’s growing influence on the ruling party itself, the KMT leadership had to devise strategies that can credibly commit to ordinary court independence, which would otherwise be reversed thereafter. This unique implication guides a qualitative empirical analysis that reinterprets the historical events surrounding the judicial reforms that took place in the mid-1990s. The results yield strong evidence in support of the theory.     

东亚经济发展模式的演变与重构

由于日本充当东亚经济发展领头者的“雁行模式”已经崩溃,因此,“日本在前面拉、中国在后面推”的东亚经济发展的“双头列车”模式也就失灵了。这就需要我们重新构建东亚经济的发展模式。未来中国具备了引领东亚经济发展领头者的条件,日本在对外直接投资、技术转移等方面是东亚经济强有力的推动者,而且在东亚经济一体化方面离不开中日两国的密切合作。因此,未来东亚经济的发展模式是“中国在前面拉、日本在后面推。”这种模式和传统“双头列车”模式相比,中日在东亚经济中作用的角色发生了换位,故称之为“新双头列车”模式。“新双头列车”模式对中国来说,既有机遇,又有挑战。     

Middle Powers and the Behavioural Model

The behavioural model comprises a major theoretical tradition in the field of middle powers since it identifies the distinct behavioural patterns in the diplomacy of these states. Its relevance, however, has been questioned since it continues to rely on older definitions of middle power behaviour and places emphasis on diplomatic preferences rather than influence. To strengthen the relevance of the behavioural model, this article proposes an additional distinctive category that prioritises ideational influence and entrepreneurial effectiveness as key prerequisites for identifying middle powers. The article examines the cases of Brazil and South Africa to argue that states classified as middle powers must not only pursue the diplomatic preferences and strategies that comprise middle power internationalism, but also display the capacity to advance and secure their preferred outcomes at the international level.     

The sovereign debt crisis: why Greece,but not Japan?

This paper asks why Japan has not yet suffered from a sovereign debt crisis, although its gross public debt as a percentage of GDP is much higher than in Greece. We use a simple stylized model to explain the occurrence of both a fundamental and a speculative debt crisis. We apply this model to both countries and derive some hypotheses about why investors are still ready to hold Japanese Government Bonds. In particular, we point to the significance of domestic debt holdings, to the central bank’s government debt purchases, to investors’ access to “safe havens,” and to the role of an autonomous monetary policy. We also analyze potential challenges to Japan’s long-term fiscal situation, resulting from its aging population.     

Local voices on community radio: a study of ‘Our Lumbini’ in Nepal

This article explores local involvement in community radio and the changes that it has brought to the lives of ordinary people in Nepal. We argue that since Nepal's first independent radio licence was granted in 1997, community radio has become an important vehicle for popular views. Drawing on a case study of a radio series produced by a community radio station broadcasting Radio Lumbini's Hamro Lumbini (‘Our Lumbini’), this article addresses the ways in which local community involvement is currently understood and discussed by listeners and programme producers, and the implications of this involvement.     

后冷战时代日本环境外交战略研究

冷战结束后,环境议题成为日本谋求"政治大国"地位的重要手段,其纳入日本对外战略框架有着深刻的国内社会背景和国际政治环境,以对外输出资本和环保技术为主要内容的日本环境外交战略在树立环保大国形象及提高国际声誉方面取得了一定成绩,但公益性的实施方式并没有改变其作为一国外交政策的利益性本质。     

The governance of fertility through gender equality in the EU and Japan

It is generally accepted amongst demographers that a declining fertility rate has negative economic consequences, namely in the guise of a slowdown in economic growth. Declining fertility has, therefore, been seen as a major problem in Japan and the EU for the last 20?years. Over the past two decades, demographers and social scientists have discussed intensely the causal connection between gender equality and female fertility, to the extent that during the past 10?years, gender equality has become the cornerstone of the EU and, to a degree, Japanese public policy aiming to re-optimise fertility rates. This article scrutinises the different ways in which gender equality is erected by demographic and social scientists in Japan and the EU as a technology of governance with the aim of re-exerting control over sexual reproduction. I argue that in the EU, scientists engage directly and endeavour to develop demographic theory based on European case studies, whereas Japanese gender equality policy is developed mainly by measuring the successes of European gender equality policy and considering the results it might yield in Japan. In both cases, however, gender equality is taken up as a tool for the governance of fertility.     

The Social Construction of the "Impossible Trinity": The Intersubjective Bases of Monetary Cooperation

Over the postwar period, states have shifted from cooperation in support of monetary guidelines, or standards for variation in wages, prices, and exchange rates, to the use of austerity as the primary means of maintaining monetary stability. In this article I offer a constructivist theory of international monetary relations in order to explain this shift, contrasting the effects of Keynesian and Neoclassical understandings on interests in cooperation. I argue that postwar Keynesian understandings, which cast monetary power as based in the authority to stabilize expectations, led states to perceive common interests in maintaining decentralized-but-legitimate guidelines. I then argue that more recent Neoclassical views, which cast monetary power as a function of capabilities, have justified reduced mutual assistance and greater recourse to austerity. From this vantage point, Neoclassical understandings, rather than any material constraints, impede the cooperation necessary to reconcile the impossible trinity of capital mobility, full employment, and monetary stability.     

In the Spotlight: Analyzing Sequential Attention Effects in Protest Reporting

During waves of contention, international media attention can be of crucial importance for activists and protest participants. However, media attention is a scarce resource and the competition over news coverage is high. While some emphasize the agenda-setting power of news outlets and argue that receiving coverage is determined by factors outside the protest movement, others suggest a dynamic relationship between media attention and activism where social movement organizations are assumed to have some agency to make it to the news. In this article, we contribute to the latter and analyze how protest can endogenously trigger more coverage. Building on insights from communication science, we argue that widely covered protests attract media attention and temporarily lower the selection threshold for subsequent incidents. Using fine-grained data on anti-regime protest in all authoritarian countries between 2003 and 2012, we find robust empirical evidence for this hypothesis. We also show that this effect becomes weaker and eventually disappears with increasing spatial and temporal distance from a highly salient event. These findings are important for research in contentious politics, since they allow us to gauge the extent to which protest activity on the ground may under certain circumstances be overreported in the media.     

Why me? An autoethnographic account of the bizarre logic of counterterrorism

The core concern of this article is derived from my personal experience of being stopped and questioned at Heathrow Airport on 28 March 2012 for possession of “suspect materials”: academic books on terrorism. I seek to utilise this experience to reflect on how logics of counterterrorism can become manifested in bizarre and prejudicial ways, and how autoethnography provides a unique means to articulate human experiences of such logics. I further utilise my experience to reflect on the dynamics of academic privilege, which often flourish at the expense of the voices of “ordinary citizens”, and argue that autoethnography can be embraced as an empowering form of self-expression through which “ordinary citizens” might de-subjugate themselves from the margins of academia towards an emancipatory ideal wherein the lived experiences of such citizens occupy a substantial space in academic and popular understandings of (counter)terrorism.     

东亚经济一体化和TPP——中日之间的博弈

近年来,东亚地区经济发展和经济合作关系十分紧密,东亚经济一体化有了一个初步的尝试。然而,长期以来,由于各种经济因素和非经济因素的影响,这一过程并不顺利。特别是近期热烈讨论的所谓TPP问题,中日就存在博弈关系,从而影响东亚经济一体化进程。通过一个简单的博弈论模型的分析,可以得出的基本结论是:中日两国要么都加入TPP,要么都不加入,只有一方加入时对另一方不利。因此,中国应该观望东亚经贸关系,伺机而动,同时努力提高自身的竞争力。     

Critical approaches and the legacy of the agent/structure debate in international relations

This article examines the significance of the concept of agency for the project of critical theory as defined by Robert Cox. Even if numerous scholars recognize the importance of agency, very few have managed to set up an agenda that uses this notion in productive ways. I argue that this failure largely stems from the desire to present power as a structural phenomenon. If we see power as embedded in the very structure of society, it becomes difficult to see how social forces can escape the inherent tendencies imposed by structures. For this reason, the issue of social change has continued to elude critical theory making it difficult to open up space for an approach based on agency. Against structural conceptions of power, I present an agent-based conception of power which can serve to contextualize international relations in different terms. By presenting power in terms of practice, I argue, one can better overcome the reifying gaze of positivism.     

东北亚的历史变局与中国的战略调整——以中日力量转移为线索

近一个半世纪以来,东北亚经历了"数千年未有之变局"。造成这一局面的原因纷繁复杂,但有一个因素十分关键,那就是发生在中日间的力量转移。历史和东北亚地缘结构均证明:作为地区主体板块,中国的强大是东北亚地区稳定的核心要素,东北亚力量中心向中国转移有助于促进东北亚安全机制的形成。但是,随着中日力量转移进入持平期,中日安全关系也将更加敏感、更加复杂,变数加大。中国必须充分把握这一趋势,塑造强国心态,构建新的身份认同,更加主动地推动地区安全与共同发展。