Modeling the Referral Decision in Sexual Assault Cases: An Application of Random Forests

This paper examines the decision to refer a sexual assault case for prosecution using a sample of 730 reported sexual assaults in which the victim received a medical/forensic examination. The decision to refer a case for prosecution was modeled using an algorithmic modeling technique, Random Forests. The key advantages of this modeling approach include its superiority in predicting case outcomes and its ability to easily uncover nonlinear relationships. Key results indicate that the likelihood of referral increased when sperm was found and documented, when the victim could identify the suspect, and as the severity of nongenital injury increased. Neither the presence nor the severity of genital injury impacted the decision to refer a case for prosecution. On the whole, suspect and report characteristics had the largest impact on referring cases for prosecution, with victim characteristics having little influence.     

公诉案件庭前程序的异化与重构——立足于本土化的渐进之路

文章对当前公诉案件庭前程序存在的功能异化现象及其成因进行了深入的分析和探讨,提出公诉案件庭前程序应有的理念和基本原则,并具体从公诉案件庭前程序的预备制度、公诉审查、证据开示和案件分流等方面就如何走本土化的渐进改革之路提出合理化建议。     

CRIMINALITY, PROSECUTORIAL SCREENING, AND UNCERTAINTY: TOWARD A THEORY OF DISCRETIONARY DECISION MAKING IN FELONY CASE PROCESSINGS

This research contributes to a further understanding of the process of criminalization by examining case information that affects prosecuting attorneys' decision to continue felony prosecution following grand jury indictment. It is suggested that prosecuting attorneys, like other decision makers in organizations engaged in people-processing activities, are confronted with uncertainty emerging from an inability to unilaterally exercise control over all actors involved in the transformation process. By relying on a self-imposed decision criteria of prosecutorial merit defined as the likelihood of obtaining a jury trial conviction, prosecutors attempt to impose a "bounded rationality" on the exercise of discretion in screening decision making. This rationality is one that is sensitive to concerns for effective management of victims and witnesses. It is argued that information relevant to victim/witness credibility and/or cooperation in prosecution is brought to bear in deciding prosecutorial strategies of case processing. Therefore, it is hypothesized that, controlling for legal and extralegal variables, case information that decreases uncertainty concerning victim/witness management will increase the probability of continued prosecution. Support is found for this uncertainty avoidance thesis. In addition, the data indicate that prosecuting attorneys are less likely to continue prosecution of cases involving female defendants and are more likely to continue prosecution of defendants whose bail outcome includes financial conditions for release.     

A Practical Guide for the Formulation of Propositions in the Bayesian Approach to DNA Evidence Interpretation in an Adversarial Environment

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.     

核准追诉低龄未成年人刑事责任的程序定位及其重要展开

从程序上看,核准追诉低龄未成年人刑事责任的行为属于侦查程序的行为,而不是立案程序或审查起诉程序的行为。因而报请核准追诉的时间应当分为两种情况:一是在需要逮捕被追诉人的案件中,侦查机关应当在提请批准逮捕的同时报请核准追诉;二是在无需逮捕被追诉人的案件中,侦查机关在确定查明的事实与收集的证据符合核准追诉条件时,就应当立即报请核准追诉。根据这种程序定位,在核准追诉的证据方面,应当根据我国《刑法》第17条第3款规定的实体法事实确定证明对象,根据审查批捕标准确定核准追诉的证明标准;在核准追诉的当事人参与权与救济权方面,应当听取未成年犯罪嫌疑人及其辩护律师的意见,还应当听取被害人及其近亲属的意见,被害人及其近亲属不服不予核准追诉决定的,不可提起自诉,但可以申请复议一次。     

论公诉变更

公诉变更制度的设置,影响审判的公正、效率以及被告人合法权益的实现,但目前的刑事诉讼对此只有司法解释而无诉讼法规范。修改刑事诉讼法,应当设置这种规范。我国公诉变更权由检察机关享有,公诉的追加与内容的变更不得妨碍诉讼的正常进行与诉讼效率,同时应当保障被告人的辩护权,还应作出适当的审理时限规定。撤回起诉不得妨碍被告人获得公正审判的权利,并应明确撤回起诉具有不起诉的效力。     

Two Truths and a Lie: In re John Z. and Other Stories at the Juncture of Teen Sex and the Law

Laws governing adolescent sexuality are incoherent and chaotically enforced, and legal scholarship on the subject neither addresses nor remedies adolescents’ vulnerability in sexual encounters. To posit a meaningful relationship between the criminal law and adolescent sexual encounters, one must examine what we know about adolescent sexuality from both the academic literature and the adults who control the criminal justice response to such interactions. This article presents an in‐depth study of In re John Z., a 2003 rape prosecution involving two seventeen‐year‐olds. Using this case, I explore the implications of the prosecution by interviewing a variety of experts and analyzing the contemporary literature on sexual norms among youth. I also relate a series of interviews conducted with the major players in the prosecution. Examining this case from a variety of perspectives permits a deeper understanding of how the law regulates adolescent sexual encounters and why it fails.     

Strategies and practical measures to strengthen the capacity of prosecution services in dealing with transnational organized crime, terrorism and corruption

This article reviews several issues and challenges affecting the capacity of prosecution services to successfully prosecute organised crime, corruption and terrorist activities. It emphasises the need for a substantially enhanced capacity of prosecution services to investigate and prosecute serious crimes and examines some promising strategies for building or strengthening that capacity. Modern prosecution services, with their emphasis on sound case management practices, strategic planning, performance based standards, effective use of modern technologies and sustained cooperation with other law enforcement agencies, both domestically and internationally, are indeed very different from their predecessors.     

遵循司法规律，构建公诉案例指导制度

案例指导制度是在近年来颇受国内学界、司法界关注的一项司法革新制度，然而研究和实践的重点多聚焦在审判领域。公诉案例指导制度是检察机关在公诉领域为充分行使检察权而提出的全新尝试。相比较审判案例指导制度，公诉案例指导制度建立在合法性、合理性、典型性原则的基础上，符合我国检察机关的法律监督职能和双重领导体制要求。在这三个原则的指导下，从案例指导主体、案例的遴选标准、案例的遴选程序及确定、体例、发布方式等五个方面进行具体构建，并明确了公诉案例指导制度的效力和具体适用过程。     

法庭科学的表述与法律证明

法庭科学评价意见在法庭上陈述的方式应当与法官所要求、陪审团实际应用的刑事证明程序相兼容。这并非一个数值性的归纳过程,而是在探求排除合理怀疑证明标准下的“最佳解释推理”。面临的问题并不是控方主张的数学概率问题,而是在全面考量了法庭上出示的所有证据后,控方主张是否为唯一可解释假说的问题。为确保陪审团仍然能专注地运用这一法律证明标准,笔者主张,控方提出的评价性法庭科学证据不应当以似然比的形式在强调若控方主张为真便更有可能认定证据,而应聚焦于本方证据对辩方有利的解释范围并在被告被定罪之前排除掉所有这些解释的合理可能性。     

Clinical case management: a strategy to coordinate detection, reporting, and prosecution of elder abuse

Despite civil and criminal sanctions, elder abuse is a prevalent, underreported, and underprosecuted event in the United States. Traditional reporting legislation and common law remedies have had minimal effect on the incidence and prevalence of elder abuse. The epidemic nature of elder abuse is projected to increase exponentially as the elderly population grows disproportionately over the next several decades. The fragmented system of detecting, reporting, and prosecuting this abuse across a wide range of medical and legal settings creates a poor structure to effectively allow a potentially abused patient to have his/her abuse circumstance communicated to the relevant parties to protect the patient, have his/her situation reported and investigated, and, if necessary, have the perpetrator brought to justice. Emergency rooms and other facilities where elders present for care should be staffed by clinically trained persons who have familiarity interacting with patients and providers across settings of care, and who are trained to detect and report abuse. Nursing case managers fill this role well because they are able to coordinate efforts among acute and long-term care facilities while also being able to supply patients with legal and clinical information about elder abuse. In addition they may support prosecution efforts through their clinical observations and expertise. Hence, clinical case managers are able to coordinate efforts lacking in the current system to effectively evaluate, report, protect, and arrange for relevant services for the patient. Through clinical and special training in elder abuse, nursing case managers can provide support to prosecution efforts against the perpetrators of this most egregious crime.     

The Public Prosecutor as Key-Player: Prosecutorial Case-Ending Decisions

This article presents the core issue of an 11 European countries study on the processes of diversion and prosecution with the public prosecutor as the key player. In consequence of a high workload large proportions of mass crimes are not brought before court, but are ended at earlier stages of criminal justice systems. Here the public prosecution service fulfils a selective function which differs from country to country according to its legal status and discretionary powers. Therefore the prosecutorial case-ending decisions in form of dismissal of proceedings, conditional disposals and penal orders can not be treated in isolation, but in dependence of its role within the whole criminal justice system and especially of the input from the police level.     

撤诉的诉讼时效后果

权利人撤诉后,因起诉而生的中断效力归于消灭,因为起诉是"独立"中断事由,它不依附于"请求"事由;起诉是"程序性"中断事由,要遵守程序法逻辑。中国式撤诉规则及其实践、起诉难现实、时效期间短、义务人不诚信等规则或现实不足以否定"不中断"立场。时效自撤诉之日起继续计算,但为防止权利人无足够时间行使权利,可规定"撤诉后6个月内时效不完成"。     

He‐said–she‐said: Contrast effects in credibility assessments and possible threats to fundamental principles of criminal law

Purpose. Some criminal trials turn on evaluations of credibility of the complainant and the accused. When credibility is based on how a witness testifies, an evaluation of one party should not influence an evaluation of the other party. If credibility evaluations are bidirectional, fundamental principles of criminal law may be offended. Methods. Six hundred and thirty seven undergraduates read a vignette that described a sexual assault (SA) or a motor vehicle accident (MVA). Karen, the complainant in the SA case and bystander witness in the MVA case, was described as 5, 13, or 20 years old. The vignette was a summary of the police investigation and, in three conditions, the trial. Trial information was manipulated in one of three ways: no information concerning how Karen testified, Karen's testimony was described positively (pro‐prosecution), or described negatively (anti‐prosecution). Participants then rated the perceived credibility of Karen and the accused (Bob) and the probability that Bob was guilty. Results. Karen was viewed more positively in the pro‐prosecution condition and more negatively in the anti‐prosecution. When Karen was judged to be less credible, Bob was rated as more credible and less likely to be guilty. When Karen was seen as more credible, Bob was viewed as more likely to be guilty. Conclusions. This bidirectional effect that the manner in which the prosecution witness testified affected perceptions of the accused and probability of guilt, in certain circumstances, may compromise fundamental principles of criminal law and be a reversible error. We offer possible solutions for future empirical testing.     

Evaluating the case for greater use of private prosecutions in England and Wales for fraud offences

This paper considers the challenges and opportunities that exist in England and Wales for the use of private prosecutions for Fraud. It considers the need for sanctions against fraudsters: looks at the prosecution landscape as it has evolved, especially during the 21st century: considers the legal basis for private prosecution and gives a brief history of its extent. The advantages and disadvantages associated with private prosecution are considered and recommendations made on the changes needed before there could be significant developments in the use of private prosecutions.     

“四大检察”与执法司法制约监督体系之构建

完善执法司法制约监督体系已成为政法领域全面深化改革的重要内容,强化检察机关法律监督职能是其中的重要一环.检察机关对执法司法的制约监督包含了刑事检察、民事检察、行政检察、公益诉讼检察“四大检察”内容.提升检察机关对执法司法的制约监督能力主要应从加强法律监督制度供给和创新法律监督方式两个方面来进行.检察机关开展执法司法制约...     

Justins v The Queen: assisted suicide, juries and the discretion to prosecute

Juries are often a crucial protection for citizens against unjust or highly controversial laws. The decision whether to proceed with a prosecution rests on the discretionary powers of prosecutors. In cases where the community is deeply divided over right and wrong, it appears that there is, at times, a transference from the public of thwarted law reform aspirations which can create difficult tensions and expectations. This case commentary considers an appeal by Shirley Justins following her conviction for manslaughter by gross criminal negligence as a result of her involvement in the mercy killing of her partner, Mr Graeme Wylie. The morally unsettled nature of the charges brought against her, her own initial plea, the directions given to the jury by the trial judge and even the basis of her appeal resulted in a convoluted and complicated legal case. Spigelman CJ and Johnson J ordered a new trial, Spigelman CJ stating that it was open for a new jury to consider (a) if Mr Wylie lacked capacity; and (b) whether there was criminal involvement by one person in another's death. Simpson J found that further prosecution on the count of manslaughter would amount to an abuse of process and that an acquittal should be entered. This case highlights how fundamentally unsettled are the publicly much debated and persistently contentious issues of euthanasia, assisted suicide, the right of a person to die a dignified death and the way their capacity in that respect should be assessed. It perhaps asks us to reconsider the role of juries and the exercise of discretion by Directors of Public Prosecutions in areas of law where the community and law-makers are deeply and intractably divided.     

我国刑事起诉程序的不足与完善

我国刑事立法中自诉案件存在的不足主要表现为自诉案件范围过于宽泛,自诉与公诉转换条件模糊,因而自诉程序的价值难以发挥。应当限制自诉案件的范围,对由公安机关立案侦查的自诉案件,被害人有是否提起公诉的决定权。     

Credible plea bargaining

This paper demonstrates that the role of plea bargaining as a screening device depends neither on the commitment to trial nor on the commitment to some prosecutorial expenditures. In a situation where a prosecutor cannot commit to trial nor spends resources to obtain more evidence, I find a semi-separating equilibrium in which the prosecutor makes an offer that can be accepted only by the guilty defendant with some positive probability, and then, if the offer is rejected, he proceeds to trial, based on his updated belief. I also consider the prosecutor’s decision to choose the amount of (per capita) prosecutorial expenditures both in the commitment case and in the noncommitment case, and argue that an increase in the per capita expenditure may reduce the gross expenditures on prosecution by lowering the chance of trial.     

Bloodstain pattern analysis & Bayes: A case report

The findings from a bloodstain pattern analysis (BPA) may assist in formulating or falsifying scenarios that are considered in the investigative stages of a criminal investigation. When a case proceeds to trial the bloodstain pattern expert may be asked about the relevance of their findings given scenarios that are proposed by the prosecution and defense counsel. Such opinions provided by an expert are highly relevant to police investigation or legal proceedings, but the reasoning behind the opinion or implicit assumptions made by the expert may not be transparent.A proper framework for the evaluation of forensic findings has been developed since the late twentieth century, based on the hierarchy of propositions, Bayesian reasoning and a model for case assessment and interpretation. This framework, when implemented in casework, mitigates some of the risks of cognitive biases, and makes the reasoning and scientific basis for the opinion transparent. This framework is broadly used across forensic science disciplines. In this paper we describe its application to the field of BPA using a case example from the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI).