Forensic identification science evidence since Daubert: Part I--A quantitative analysis of the exclusion of forensic identification science evidence

The U.S. Supreme Court decisions in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Kumho Tire Co. Ltd. v. Carmichael transformed the way scientific expert evidence was reviewed in courts across the United States. To gauge the impact of these rulings on the admission of forensic identification evidence, the authors analyzed 548 judicial opinions from cases where admission of such evidence was challenged. Eighty-one cases (15%) involved exclusion or limitation of identification evidence, with 50 (65.7%) of these failing to meet the "reliability" threshold. This was largely because of a failure to demonstrate a sufficient scientific foundation for either the technique (27 cases) or the expert's conclusions (17 cases). The incidence of exclusion/limitation because of a lack of demonstrable reliability suggests that there is a continuing need for the forensic sciences to pursue research validating their underlying theories and techniques of identification to ensure their continued acceptance by the courts.     

Palynology: its position in the field of forensic science

Here we examine the current state of palynology in the field of forensic science. Forensic palynology is discussed with reference to other forensic disciplines to help understand what is required for its progress. Emerging developments are also discussed. Palynomorphs potentially deliver excellent trace evidence, fulfilling the requirements relating to the transfer, persistence, and detection of such evidence. Palynological evidence can provide very powerful investigative and associative evidence. Despite this, the application of palynology to forensic science has had mixed success. There are many anecdotal stories where pollen evidence has had spectacular successes. But it is extremely underutilized in most countries because it is labor-intensive and requires considerable expertise and experience, there is a lack of control over sample collection and inadequate resourcing and funding, and its crime-solving power is not well known. Palynology has been applied to forensic problems in an unstructured way, resulting in a lack of formalized discussion of the underlying principles. As there is renewed questioning of the acceptability of most evidence types in the current legal environment, there is a need for the establishment of palynological evidence through validation-type studies and experimentation, and the implementation of independent proficiency testing.     

Forensic identification science evidence since Daubert: Part II--judicial reasoning in decisions to exclude forensic identification evidence on grounds of reliability

Many studies regarding the legal status of forensic science have relied on the U.S. Supreme Court's mandate in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals Inc., and its progeny in order to make subsequent recommendations or rebuttals. This paper focuses on a more pragmatic approach to analyzing forensic science's immediate deficiencies by considering a qualitative analysis of actual judicial reasoning where forensic identification evidence has been excluded on reliability grounds since the Daubert precedent. Reliance on general acceptance is becoming insufficient as proof of the admissibility of forensic evidence. The citation of unfounded statistics, error rates and certainties, a failure to document the analytical process or follow standardized procedures, and the existence of observe bias represent some of the concerns that have lead to the exclusion or limitation of forensic identification evidence. Analysis of these reasons may serve to refocus forensic practitioners' testimony, resources, and research toward rectifying shortfalls in these areas.     

Estimation and evidence in forensic anthropology: age-at-death

A great deal has previously been written about the use of skeletal morphological changes in estimating ages-at-death. This article looks in particular at the pubic symphysis, as it was historically one of the first regions to be described in the literature on age estimation. Despite the lengthy history, the value of the pubic symphysis in estimating ages and in providing evidence for putative identifications remains unclear. This lack of clarity primarily stems from the fact that rather ad hoc statistical methods have been applied in previous studies. This article presents a statistical analysis of a large data set (n = 1766) of pubic symphyseal scores from multiple contexts, including anatomical collections, war dead, and victims of genocide. The emphasis is in finding statistical methods that will have the correct "coverage."Coverage" means that if a method has a stated coverage of 50%, then approximately 50% of the individuals in a particular pubic symphyseal stage should have ages that are between the stated age limits, and that approximately 25% should be below the bottom age limit and 25% above the top age limit. In a number of applications it is shown that if an appropriate prior age-at-death distribution is used, then "transition analysis" will provide accurate "coverages," while percentile methods, range methods, and means (+/-standard deviations) will not. Even in cases where there are significant differences in the mean ages-to-transition between populations, the effects on the stated age limits for particular "coverages" are minimal. As a consequence, more emphasis needs to be placed on collecting data on age changes in large samples, rather than focusing on the possibility of inter-population variation in rates of aging.     

Understanding juror perceptions of forensic evidence: investigating the impact of case context on perceptions of forensic evidence strength

The most widely accepted model of juror decision making acknowledges the importance of both the case-specific information presented in the courtroom, as well as the prior general knowledge and beliefs held by each juror. The studies presented in this paper investigated whether mock jurors could differentiate between evidence of varying strengths in the absence of case information and then followed on to determine the influence that case context (and therefore the story model) has on judgments made about the strength of forensic DNA evidence. The results illustrated that mock jurors correctly identified various strengths of evidence when it was not presented with case information; however, the perceived strength of evidence was significantly inflated when presented in the context of a criminal case, particularly when the evidence was of a weak or ambiguous standard. These findings are discussed in relation to the story model, and the potential implications for real juries.     

我国法庭科学实验室认可工作现状与存在的问题

本文介绍了我国法庭科学实验室认可活动的法律环境变迁和开展现状,并对当前认可工作中存在的主要问题进行了深入分析,在此基础上提出7项政策建议。     

Single cells for forensic DNA analysis--from evidence material to test tube

Abstract: The purpose of this project was to develop a method that, while providing morphological quality control, allows single cells to be obtained from the surfaces of various evidence materials and be made available for DNA analysis in cases where only small amounts of cell material are present or where only mixed traces are found. With the SteREO Lumar.V12 stereomicroscope and UV unit from Zeiss, it was possible to detect and assess single epithelial cells on the surfaces of various objects (e.g., glass, plastic, metal). A digitally operated micromanipulator developed by aura optik was used to lift a single cell from the surface of evidence material and to transfer it to a conventional PCR tube or to an AmpliGrid^® from Advalytix. The actual lifting of the cells was performed with microglobes that acted as carriers. The microglobes were held with microtweezers and were transferred to the DNA analysis receptacles along with the adhering cells. In a next step, the PCR can be carried out in this receptacle without removing the microglobe. Our method allows a single cell to be isolated directly from evidence material and be made available for forensic DNA analysis.     

环境扫描电镜在法庭科学中的应用与展望

环境扫描电镜（ESEM）在法庭科学的研究和实践工作中,有着重要的作用,它不仅具有普通扫描电镜的各类功能,还可以调整样品室内的气压和湿度,并且可在环境条件下对二次电子成像,因此,ESEM能够直接观察非导电导热样品表面的超微结构。这些特点使得ESEM在法庭科学中有着广阔的应用前景。     

植物SSR标记的研究现状及其在法庭科学中的应用

随着SSR分子标记技术的深入研究,其在植物遗传多样性分析、种属鉴定、个体识别中得到越来越广泛的应用。本文就植物SSR分子标记技术的特性、发展、研究现状进行综述,并探讨其在法庭科学中的应用前景,旨在为法庭科学和相关学科中的应用和相关领域中的研究提供参考。     

Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence

Intelligence analysts commonly associate cases on the basis of similarities found in compared characteristics of scientific evidence. The present paper studies some of the inferential difficulties associated with such operations. An analysis is proposed that breaks down the reasoning process into inference to common source, and inference to case linkage. The former requires an approach to the difficulty associated with evaluating the similarities of items of evidence from different cases with no putative source being available. The latter requires consideration to be given to the relevance of evidence. Throughout the paper, probability theory is used to describe the nature of the proposed inferences. Graphical models are also introduced with the aim of providing further insight into the dependence and independence relationships assumed to hold among the various propositions considered. Notions from decision theory are used to discuss ways in which intelligence analysts may assist investigators in deciding whether or not cases should be considered as linked.     

Bayesian networks and the value of the evidence for the forensic two-trace transfer problem*

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.     

Handwriting evidence evaluation based on the shape of characters: application of multivariate likelihood ratios

A novel Bayesian methodology has been developed to quantitatively assess handwriting evidence by means of a likelihood ratio (LR) designed for multivariate data. This methodology is presented and its applicability is shown through a simulated case of a threatening anonymous text where a suspect is apprehended. The shape of handwritten characters a, d, o, and q of the threatening text was compared with characters of the true writer, and then with two other writers, one with similar and one with dissimilar characters shape compared to the true writer. In each of these three situations, 100 draws of characters were made and the resulting distributions of LR were established to consider the natural handwriting variation. LR values supported the correct hypothesis in every case. This original Bayesian methodology provides a coherent and rigorous tool for the assessment of handwriting evidence, contributing undoubtedly to integrate the field of handwriting examination into science.     

Introducing a semi-automatic method to simulate large numbers of forensic fingermarks for research on fingerprint identification

Statistical research on fingerprint identification and the testing of automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS) performances require large numbers of forensic fingermarks. These fingermarks are rarely available. This study presents a semi-automatic method to create simulated fingermarks in large quantities that model minutiae features or images of forensic fingermarks. This method takes into account several aspects contributing to the variability of forensic fingermarks such as the number of minutiae, the finger region, and the elastic deformation of the skin. To investigate the applicability of the simulated fingermarks, fingermarks have been simulated with 5-12 minutiae originating from different finger regions for six fingers. An AFIS matching algorithm was used to obtain similarity scores for comparisons between the minutiae configurations of fingerprints and the minutiae configurations of simulated and forensic fingermarks. The results showed similar scores for both types of fingermarks suggesting that the simulated fingermarks are good substitutes for forensic fingermarks.     

Child abduction murder: the impact of forensic evidence on solvability

This study examined 733 child abduction murders (CAMs) occurring from 1968 to 2002 to explore the influence of forensic evidence on case solvability in CAM investigations. It was hypothesized that the presence of forensic evidence connecting the offender to the crime would enhance case solvability in murder investigations of abducted children. This study examined the impact of CAM of different types of forensic evidence and the impact of the summed total of forensic evidence items on case solvability by controlling for victim age, victim race, victim gender, and victim-offender relationship. Time and distance theoretical predictors were also included. Binomial logistic regression models were used to determine whether forensic evidence was a critical solvability factor in murder investigations of abducted children. This research indicated that, while forensic evidence increased case solvability, the impact of forensic evidence on solvability was not as important as other solvability factors examined.     

A two-level model for evidence evaluation

A random effects model using two levels of hierarchical nesting has been applied to the calculation of a likelihood ratio as a solution to the problem of comparison between two sets of replicated multivariate continuous observations where it is unknown whether the sets of measurements shared a common origin. Replicate measurements from a population of such measurements allow the calculation of both within-group and between-group variances/covariances. The within-group distribution has been modelled assuming a Normal distribution, and the between-group distribution has been modelled using a kernel density estimation procedure. A graphical method of estimating the dependency structure among the variables has been used to reduce this highly multivariate problem to several problems of lower dimension. The approach was tested using a database comprising measurements of eight major elements from each of four fragments from each of 200 glass objects and found to perform well compared with previous approaches, achieving a 15.2% false-positive rate, and a 5.5% false-negative rate. The modelling was then applied to two examples of casework in which glass found at the scene of the criminal activity has been compared with that found in association with a suspect.     

Watch for those fragments of evidence: the use of an automatic timepiece to help correlate a helicopter crash site from the Vietnam War

This case study illustrates the use of the date function on an automatic wristwatch to help identify a Vietnam War helicopter crash site. The location of a crash incident can sometimes be uncertain because of inadequate or inaccurate wartime records and the passage of time. Artifacts recovered from a prospective crash scene are regularly used to correlate the loss incident. In this case study, a recovered automatic watch displayed a date 2 days later than the reported loss incident. Although the date conflicts with the aircraft crash incident report, it is observed that a fully wound automatic watch continues to work for c. 2 days after movement of the watch ceases. Thus, the watch's date in fact correlates with the aircraft crash incident report. It is noted that automatic watches may also be used to date scenes of crime.     

Naturalistic decision making in forensic science: toward a better understanding of decision making by forensic team leaders

This study uses the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) perspective to examine how Dutch forensic team leaders (i.e., the officers in charge of criminal forensic research from the crime scene until the use of laboratory assistance) make decisions in real-life settings and identifies the contextual factors that might influence those decisions. First, a focus group interview was conducted to identify four NDM mechanisms in day-to-day forensic decision making. Second, a serious game was conducted to examine the influence of three of these contextual mechanisms. The results uncovered that forensic team leaders (i) were attracted to obtain further information when more information was initially made available, (ii) were likely to devote more attention to emotionally charged cases, and (iii) used not only forensic evidence in the decision making but also tactical, unverified information of the police inquiry. Interestingly, the measured contextual influences did not deviate significantly from a control group of laypeople.