割盗铁路线材案件的特点及侦查对策

割盗铁路线材案件的特点:(一)作案前有预谋踩点;(二)作案成员的复杂性;(三)现场留有相关痕迹物证;(四)作案的连续性;(五)销赃渠道的单一性。割盗铁路线材案件的侦查对策:(一)与铁路电务部门相配合,制定快速出击的预备方案;(二)认真细致地勘查现场,发现、收集现场痕迹物证;(三)科学的分析案情,准确刻画犯罪嫌疑人,为下一步侦查工作打下良好基础;(四)认真研究此类案件规律,蹲坑守侯抓获现行犯罪嫌疑人;(五)加强阵地控制,通过控制销赃查获犯罪嫌疑人。     

Managing the NATO alliance: Congress and burdensharing

The Congress has been an active partner in the transatlantic alliance from the negotiation of the North Atlantic Treaty to the present day. Congressional perpectives have been substantially influenced by the desire to limit the U.S. share of the NATO burden. In recent years, U.S.—European differences over East—West relations, Third World security requirements, and other issues have intensified the burdensharng debate. Now some members of Congress are once again using the threat of unilateral U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe—the main source of congressional influence on the alliance—to pressure the Europeans to increase their defense efforts. Whether the recent focus on burdensharing will recede or grow in the next few years will depend on how the administration and the allies respond to the congressional pressure. In any case, Congress is likely to continue to insist on its due share of management rights in the NATO relationship.     

The Context of Priming

The existence of priming (i.e. the fact that the standards people use to make political evaluations shift in response to changes in media coverage of political issues) has become generally accepted. However, most of the evidence for the priming mechanism comes from experiments or analyses of certain specific events. This article presents evidence of priming from a longitudinal study of the Danish population's evaluation of the Danish government. The study consists of 12 measurements over four years from 1999 to 2003. The analysis indicates that priming effects are often moderated by political knowledge, but that the effect changes from case to case. The article shows that both the overall priming effects and the effect of the moderator are contingent on the political context of the priming situation. Important aspects of the moderating context are message intensity, the easiness of the issue, the politicisation of the issue, the assessment of the government's issue responsibility and the timing of the evaluation.     

Split-voting in the Federal Republic of Germany: An analysis of the federal elections from 1953 to 1987

This article is about split-voting in the Federal Republic of Germany. Since 1953 each voter has had two votes. Although only the second vote is of importance for the distribution of the mandates, the voters increasingly make use of split-voting. The reasons for this increase of the split-vote are multiple: one being an expression of the rising need for participation. This split-vote' has nothing to do with the candidate of the electoral district, but very much with coalition preference. Considerable discrepancy between the first and the second vote can especially be observed among the Liberals. They profit from the fact that there is a widespread ignorance of the electoral system. The gains of the FDP are made at the expense of the current coalition partner.     

Morality,Benevolence, and Responsibility: Regime Legitimacy in China from Past to the Present

Taking an interpretive approach, this study argues that Chinese political tradition plays an important role in the maintenance of regime legitimacy in China today. Contrary to the popular view that the Chinese Communist regime relies primarily on economic performance to sustain its legitimacy, the current regime legitimacy is maintained because of the historically rooted moral bond between the state and society and the societal expectation that the state would be responsible for the wellbeing of the population. The regime legitimacy in China has three overlapping layers: The basic layer is the morality of political elite. The crucial part of the morality is the benevolent governance which specifies that the government has to be compassionate to the people. The central component of a benevolent government is the state responsibility to the welfare of the people. All together, these layers create a moral bond between the state and society. The government will enjoy legitimacy as far as the society expects it to fulfill its end of the deal. This study further argues that the morality-based regime legitimacy in China has to be calibrated within its multi-level power structure. Governments at different levels enjoy different degree of legitimacy and face different degree of challenges. In general, the central government enjoys the most legitimacy and faces the least challenges comparing to the local governments. This multi-level power structure would cushion many regime legitimacy crises.     

Signals from the Tenth Justice: The Political Role of the Solicitor General in Supreme Court Decision Making

Conventional explanations of the solicitor general's influence on the Supreme Court emphasize his expertise or experience. We articulate and test a more political account based on insights from signaling theory. We argue justices will be more receptive to signals from the solicitor general (S.G.) when either the justice and S.G. are ideologically proximate or the S.G.'s signal is contrary to his ideological predisposition. We test our account over the period from 1953 to 2002 using a newly developed interinstitutional measure of ideology that places executive and judicial actors on the same spatial scale. Our results highlight the political nature of the S.G.'s influence, challenging the received wisdom about the S.G.'s impact on the Supreme Court.     

The effects of administrative linkages on implementation: Welfare policy in Israel

This article focuses on the interaction between local-national relations and the implementation of welfare policy in Israel. It studies the administrative linkages between different levels of governmental jurisdictions involved in the implementing of certain policies of the Ministry of Welfare. It seeks to understand their impact on the original goals and programs of the national government and on actual services provided at the municipal level. These linkages include the arrangements for provision, funding, employment, regulations, and inspection. Without denying the importance of other explanations, the article emphasizes the significance of administrative linkages for understanding welfare policy and practices. In effect, the present study evaluates the extent to which the administrative linkages enable the national government to implement its policies on the one hand, and local authorities to influence national policies and programs on the other.The findings and analysis of administrative linkages suggest four conclusions. First contrary to Government policy the welfare system involving the Ministry, local municipalities and their agencies, is very inegalitarian; services are neither uniform nor adjusted to need. Second, the administrative linkages maximize local output and undermine the ability of the Ministry to implement its policies. Third, it is questionable whether the Israeli government can use its present Welfare Ministry to cope with major aspects of the problem. Fourth, it appears that the operations of the Israeli Welfare Ministry system are more similar to the federal than unitary model.     

政党整合下的官僚制行政——当代中国公共行政的组织行为分析

当代中国公共行政的基本模式是在中国共产党的领导下由官僚机构实行国家管理的结构.党是国家管理的核心.因此,党的组织行为方式明显地影响了官僚制行政的方式,具体来说使得公共行政表现为三方面的特征公共行政的政治化、意识形态色彩和人格化.这些特征在一定程度上造成了公共行政的失范和无序,党必须严格规范其行为,才能够保证官僚体系程序化、理性化和公正化的实施管理.     

反腐新思维：以利益背反打破攻守同盟

现有法律同时惩罚行贿者和受贿者，为“同时惩罚方案”，往往导致双方的利益攻守同盟，不利于高效反腐。“利益背反方案”提出了反腐新思维，能够打破腐败中的攻守同盟。此方案将行贿受贿分为受贿阶段与完成阶段。在受贿阶段，只要受贿者主动坦白，则他不但无过，反而有功，而对行贿者则予以惩罚；在完成阶段则相反。若此，在任一阶段都有且只有一方获利并且有且只有一方受损，于是形成双方利益与风险的多重背反；同时，任何一方自身的利益与风险也是背反的，即利益越大风险反而越小，利益越小风险反而越大。于是，双方成为利益敌人，从而打破攻守同盟。此外，利益背反还具有中立性、操作性很强、反腐败成本很低、适用范围很广等优点。     

Preemptive and reactive spending in U.S. House races

This paper examines the spending behavior of candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives. Particular attention is paid to the timing of receipts and expenditures over the complete 2-year election cycle. Incumbents raise and spend large amounts of money very early in the race, and this preemptive spending may have a great impact on the selection of challengers and therefore on electoral outcomes. In addition, a model of reactive spending is tested for the general election period. Incumbents' expenditures are a function of the underlying partisan division in the district, the strength of the challenge, and candidates' feelings of vulnerability. Incumbents are strategic actors who attempt to maximize their chances of reelection. Early in the term, they spend preemptively in an effort to influence the selection of their challengers. Later in the term, they spend in reaction to the strength of their challengers' campaign. The role of money in congressional campaigns is neither simple nor direct. More attention needs to be given to the strategic uses of money in the period leading up to the general election campaign as well as to the dynamics of receipts and expenditures over an entire election cycle.     

Social security: a program and policy history

Many of the federal and state programs that provide income security to U.S. families have their roots in the Social Security Act (the Act) of 1935. This Act provided for unemployment insurance, old-age insurance, and means-tested welfare programs. The Great Depression was clearly a catalyst for the Social Security Act of 1935, and some of its provisions--notably the means-tested programs--were intended to offer immediate relief to families. However, the old-age insurance program-the precursor to today's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance, or Social Security, program-was not designed specifically to deal with the economic crisis of that era. Indeed, monthly benefit payments, under the original Act, were not scheduled to begin until 1942. In addition, from the beginning, the Social Security program has embodied social insurance principles that were widely discussed even before the onset of the Great Depression. The first four decades of the Social Security program were, in general, ones of expansion. In fact, the program was expanded even before it became truly operational. In 1939, amendments added child, spouse, and survivor benefits to the retirement benefits authorized by the 1935 Act. Those amendments also allowed for monthly benefits to begin in 1940. Although the program was not changed substantially during the war years and the initial postwar period, the 1950s were a transformational decade in the program's history: benefit amounts were increased substantially, coverage under the program became close to universal, and a new disability insurance benefit was offered. The 1960s witnessed additional growth in Social Security, but the most important development in social insurance occurred in health insurance, with the creation of the Medicare program in 1965. Legislative actions in the 1970s had profound effects on the Social Security program and, indeed, set the stage for many of today's reform debates. Large benefit increases, a new benefit formula that was erroneously generous, and other changes in the early 1970s created a situation in which annual program costs, as a share of gross domestic product, increased during a 12-year period from about 3 percent to 5 percent. In 1977, amendments to the Act corrected the flawed benefit formula and made other changes in the financing of the system to shore up the program. Thus, the 1970s represent a watershed in the program's history-program growth gave way to increasing concerns about the program's finances. Those concerns were reflected in the amendments to the Act in 1983, which were the last major changes to the program. These amendments, based largely on recommendations from a commission chaired by Alan Greenspan, adjusted benefits and taxes to address pressing near-term financing problems faced by the system. Although the Greenspan Commission focused to a large extent on short-range issues, the resulting reforms have generated large surpluses in the program and the buildup of a substantial trust fund. However, the looming retirement of the baby boomers and several other demographic factors will, according to projections, result in the exhaustion of the trust fund by 2042.     

European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model

This paper analyses the voting power of individual members of the ECB Governing Council and, in particular, that of the Executive Board in the light of recent information published by the ECB. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension of games, we modify the standard analysis in three ways. First, we include heterogeneous preferences of the Governing Council members. Second, we address the agenda-setting power of the ECB president. Third, we take into account the dynamic decision setting. We show that the rotation model is able to stabilize the position of the core countries of the euro area.     

Back in Contention? The Conservatives' Electoral Prospects

This article assesses whether the Conservatives are likely to be serious contenders for power at the next British general election. First it assesses how well the party will have to do to 'win' the election. Second, it considers whether the record of the polls since 2005 suggests the party is capable of securing the necessary support. Third, the article assesses whether the ideological mood of the electorate has moved closer to the Conservatives since 2005. Finally it considers whether the image of the party has improved.
The Conservatives are likely to have to outpoll Labour by a considerable margin to become the largest party but their record in opinion polls suggests they could achieve this. The ideological mood of the electorate has moved closer to the party, while David Cameron is a relatively popular leader. But the party has still not fully restored its reputation for economic competence.     

Federalism and the Constitutional Right to Keep and Bear Arms

Until recently, the federal courts agreed that the Second Amendmentprotects the interest of states in maintaining their own militias.In United States v. Emerson, the U.S. Court of Appeals for theFifth Circuit rejected this consensus, and held that the Constitutionprotects a right of private individuals to keep and bear arms.The fifth circuit's position is more plausible than the consensusview, and the arguments for treating the Second Amendment asa kind of federalism device are weak. A different set of federalismissues is raised by the prospect that the Supreme Court mightadopt the fifth circuit's position, and then take the next stepof applying the Second Amendment to the states through the FourteenthAmendment. Finally, Emerson shows how certain technical legaldoctrines that protect the dignity of he states can operateto strengthen the federal government's ability to undermineprotections afforded by the Second Amendment.     

The first supranational policy in the European Union: Competition policy

Abstract. Competition policy has become a salient issue in the last decade. The purpose of this article is to widen discussion amongst political scientists of an issue that has been dominated by the disciplines of economics and law. The concept of a competition policy is the foundation stone of the entire European Union. It lies at the very heart of efforts to establish a common market and within the EU competition policy arena the decision making powers have laid firmly with the supranational institutions. This article provides an overview of the issue; it traces the constitutive foundations of policy and discusses the functions of the core EU competition policy actors. It is primarily concerned with the European Commission, in particular, DGIV. The paper accounts for DGIV's metamorphosis in the 1980s and the myriad of problems now confronting its procedures and efficiency in the 1990s. Whether these defects can be resolved will ultimately determine the fate of DGIV. Arguments for institutional reform are raging through the European institutions and DGIV provides no exception. The paper concludes with a discussion on the plausibility of the creation of an independent European Competition Office, modelled on the role of the German Federal Cartel Office.     

The ASEAN Regional Forum in United States East Asian strategy

This paper analyses the development of the US approach to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), from 1991 onwards. It examines theories of why a superpower would participate in a multilateral security institution, and investigates the motivations for the attitudes and extent of participation of the George H. Bush, Clinton and George W. Bush administrations towards the ARF. It argues that, in the post-Cold War period and in the face of a rising China, US East Asia strategy has been geared towards retaining the American preponderance of power. Thus, the US has pursued a strategy of containment and deterrence centred upon the regional bilateral alliance structure. Multilateral institutions have been treated as a supplementary means of supporting the secondary strategy of engaging with China. However, the ARF is not viewed as one of the important institutions through which to fulfil this supplementary aim. Because it cannot deal with the key regional security issues, the ARF is seen as a low-stakes arena by Washington. But the paper concludes that US participation in the ARF may nevertheless be crucial in boosting the legitimacy of American security interests in the region, thus helping to safeguard US preponderance.     

人的抽象与人的现实——马克思视野中的"人"

马克思视野中的“人”是人的抽象和人的现实的统一。具体表现在人的抽象是人的现实的价值评判尺度和根本方法;人的现实是人的抽象的特殊表现;人的抽象在人的现实发展中生成。马克思关于人的抽象与以往传统人学中抽象的人有着根本的区别,其出发点和归宿点不同。马克思在这个问题上的根本变革在于两者在实践基础上达到了统一。马克思关于人的抽象和人的现实关系的学理层面的意义在于,人学研究要把人学的基础理论和人的现实问题结合起来;实践层面的意义在于,以人为本要实现共性和差异、整合和分解的统一。     

Iceland: Searching for Democracy along Three Dimensions of Citizen Control

This article scrutinises delegation and accountability in Iceland. In a healthy democracy, the representatives serve the wishes and interests of the main principal, the people. In an ailing democracy, the agents of the people primarily serve themselves.
The main conclusions are as follows. First, the semi-presidential constitutional framework places the voters in a central role. They vote in two systems, electing MPs in the parliamentary system and the president by a national vote. The open primary, adopted by the main political parties, gives the voters the opportunity to participate in the selection of candidates in parliamentary elections. The central role of the voters is, however, often made difficult by the fluctuation and complexity of this dual system of representation. Second, citizen control through party organisations and party membership has all but disappeared. Instead, political parties cater to the fickle electorate and produce government policy aiming at economic stability and economic growth. Third, external constraints – the political presidency, judicial activism and Iceland's membership of the European Economic Area – all weigh in and sometimes override decisions reached by the parliamentary system of government.
The final conclusion is that the Icelandic system of governance has become a rather messy and complicated political arrangement, thereby resembling the situation in other modern democracies.     

Taiwan’s political ecology after the November 1997 local election

From the late 1940’s to the late 1980’s, the political system in Taiwan can be best characterized as one-party system, with the Kuomintang (KMT) as the dominant ruling party. In the November 1997 local election, the KMT was defeated by the opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), for the first time. The DPP not only gained more county and city posts at the provincial level but also grabbed more votes than the ruling party, resulting in a new political order. At the local level, a two-party system has emerged. The general population prefers a cleaner and more efficient government. Many voters in the November 1997 election voted for the candidates—not the party—of their choice. Unless the KMT can welcome back the New Party (NP), its ruling party status at the national (as opposed to central) level may be called into serious question. Before the legislative election of December 1998 and the direct, presidential election of March 2000, it seems that the KMT will try to co-opt members of the NP. There could be tension between the central and local governments in Taiwan on many issues in the foreseeable future, such as whether or not the Republic of China (ROC) flag should be hoisted in schools and how much financial support the local governments can get from the central government. It is highly doubtful that the DPP can grab the presidency in the year 2000. Most voters are not ready for such a new order at the presidential or central (as opposed to national) level.     

The Limits of External Empowerment: EMU, Technocracy and Reform of the Greek Pension System

This paper seeks to explain an aborted attempt at reform of the Greek pension system, following a series of previous failures. It applies the framework of rational choice institutionalism in order to examine the strategy and setting of the relevant actors. The pension system had become a huge fiscal burden on the state, threatening Greece's position in the European Union. Moreover, its gross inequalities of provision and bureaucratic inefficiency were symptoms of the embedded clientelism and 'disjointed corporatism' that stood in the way of the government's self-proclaimed 'modernization' programme. In the event, though EMU entry requirements empowered the reform momentum, a combination of the strategic weakness of key actors and the entrenched opposition of sectoral interests dissipated the initiative. The failure suggests the relevance of the wider social setting to reform: in particular, the weakness of the technocratic community and the relative absence of a supportive 'advocacy coalition', beyond the dominance of the 'party state'. Faced with criticism, the political leadership sought to protect their electoral position and postponed pressing decisions. The case study raises important questions about the scope for such reform in Greece and the future stability of the 'Euro-zone'.