Russia's Policy Towards OPEC

Russia and OPEC are major oil producers. Considering the growing energy demand for the global economy, both parties are consistently increasing their exports of hydrocarbons and developing new supply capacities. Meanwhile, both parties have a mutual interest in creating a stable market by cooperating. However, the likelihood of Russian cooperation with OPEC is largely a function of oil prices and the political relations between Russia and OPEC countries. The following article deals with the relations between Russia and OPEC since the collapse of the USSR to the economic crisis in 2008. The author examines the political, cultural and economic conflicts between the two parties and their different attitudes toward the oil market in order to assess their chance to fully cooperate in the long term.     

俄罗斯的对外政策与中国

俄罗斯对外政策的制定与中俄关系的发展是中俄两国政界、学界都非常关注的问题。目前,普京政府奉行一种积极、独立、全方位、实用的对外政策。作为一种新型的,摆脱了意识形态束缚的战略协作关系,《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》将两国世代友好,永不为敌的思想,以法律形式固定下来。目前的中俄关系处于300年来最好的历史时期。     

俄罗斯的亚太政策

2004年俄罗斯的亚太政策思维出现了新变化,为其在亚太地区的活动开辟了更加广阔的前景.俄罗斯亚太政策有五项目标:一是确保远东地缘政治安全;二是加强反恐合作,建立"稳定的弧形地带";三是开发西伯利亚和远东,融入亚太经济;四是扩大机器设备出口;五是推销军火.俄罗斯以在亚太地区的双边和多边关系为其活动支点,当前的活动重心是强化地缘经济联系,并已有所进展.但是,一些业已存在的问题仍会妨碍它与亚太国家的经济合作.     

The Evolution of Russia's Pakistan Policy

Moscow's preoccupation in Eastern Europe in the late 1940's, the distorted image it had of Pakistan and its belief that the defeat of Chiang Kai-shek would be followed by the spread of revolution through the Indian sub-continent tended to discourage the Kremlin from establishing cordial relations with Pakistan.     

俄罗斯移民政策弊端解析

俄罗斯还不是真正意义上的移民国家,其接收各类外来移民(定居移民、劳务移民和留学移民等)的历史并不长。从国民性格角度看,俄罗斯社会缺乏安全感,在制定移民政策时,总是将安全考量放在第一位。俄移民领域的管理因而具有浓重的“强力”色彩,“经济”和“融合”的成分则相对不足。当前俄移民政策领域存在诸多弊端,如融合政策缺失,腐败问题严重,统计工作不到位,移民政策缺乏系统性和连贯性等。为构建具有吸引力的移民政策,俄罗斯学界提出很多建设性主张,如必须为引进和利用外国劳动力制定简单透明的规则和程序;必须使移民政策的实施由单独的联邦非强力部门主管;必须要有保障移民融合的基础设施,维护移民的权利,反对影子就业和社会隔离;公开承认移民对于国家经济的作用,对居民解释实行移民政策的各种动机,创造出移民和社会可以有效协作的氛围。这些主张能否得以落实,还有待进一步观察。     

Russia's New Business Groups and State Power

An American political scientist investigates the redistribution of property in Russia after the 1998 financial crash. Making extensive use of Russian and Western documentary sources, as well as three research trips that included formal and informal discussions with politicians, scholars, and journalists, the article examines both the rise of new major players in the Russian political economy and the transformation of old ones. The study includes both industrial and agricultural economic groups, as well as the ambiguous role of the state in both sectors.     

俄罗斯对朝鲜半岛政策评述

本文从分析俄联邦外交政策构想入手,考察俄对朝鲜半岛政策的理论框架,通过分析俄在朝鲜半岛的外交实践,勾画出俄对朝鲜半岛政策的基本轮廓,最后探讨俄对朝鲜半岛政策的影响及其未来走向.     

俄罗斯空天政策调整:实践与创新

近年来,世界主要国家以资金和技术为支持,以空天一体、军民融合为主要逻辑,从科技实力、人才素质培养、军队组织结构以及国际合作等多维度加强国家空天实力.在此背景下,太空军事化和太空资源争夺进程加剧,各国军用与民用空天技术竞争烈度均不断提高,美俄主导的空天领域二元权力格局被打破.鉴于上述形势,乌克兰危机以来俄罗斯政府参考世界主要国家空天战略的发展趋势,结合自身实际情况,对国家空天政策进行了一系列调整.此番调整在延续政策传统的同时,优化俄罗斯国家航天集团内部的权责关系和管理结构,注重国家实战能力和创新能力培育,展示了俄罗斯以硬实力为基础维护国家安全,以软实力为补充促进国家空天实力可持续发展和跃升的战略目标与实施逻辑.     

Russia's Foreign Policy Towards North Africa in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Since coming to power in 2000, Russian president Vladimir Putin has tried to construct a narrative of regaining Russia's status as a major global power. However, in practice the Kremlin has yet to create a coherent strategy or achieve a sense of a co-ordinated foreign policy. While North Africa has not been at the forefront of this narrative, recently Moscow has intensified its diplomatic links and cooperation with the regimes in the region. The Arab Spring presented Russian policy makers with a series of challenges regarding the uncertainty of the developments in the region, but also with renewed economic opportunities. This profile analyses Moscow's relationships with the countries in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) in the wake of the Arab Spring. In each case the Kremlin aimed to take advantage of the new opportunities without really being guided by an overarching strategy for the region. However, Russia increasingly seems to be keen to position itself in the region as an alternative to the EU or the US, not least in light of the current war in Ukraine.     

The particular role of religion in Islamic State

Religion, specifically Islam, is central to the identity of Islamic State (IS). It was on the basis of religious doctrine that IS separated from Al Qaeda. It is on the basis of his belonging to the same tribe as the Prophet Muhammed that Al-Baghdadi has legitimised his claims of leadership of the Muslim ummah. Moreover each action undertaken by IS is justified on the basis of Islamic religious texts. Far from representing some sort of lunatic fringe, the ideology of IS finds resonance among mainstream Muslims. Despite international efforts at countering violent extremism, the pessimistic prediction of this paper is that such efforts will fail and the world is set for a confrontation between liberal democracies and Islamists globally.     

略论尼克松政府的越南战争政策

越南战争是美国外交史上的一次大失败。1969年1月上台的尼克松政府为了结束这场不得人心的侵略战争,采取了软硬兼施的两手政策,试图以武力为后盾,实现所谓“体面的和平”,结果却陷入了进退两难的尴尬境地,最终不得不回到谈判桌上,用和平手段来实现停战。尼克松政府的越南政策再一次证明了武力威胁的限度。     

浅析奥巴马政府的对朝政策

在应对处理朝鲜半岛危机中,美国一直扮演着一个关键的角色。奥巴马上台后,朝鲜半岛危机出现了急剧的变化,这也让人们对奥巴马政府的对朝政策更加关注。实际上,在2009年春美国国务卿希拉里访问亚洲后,奥巴马政府的对朝政策就产生了很大的变化。朝鲜半岛不断升级的紧张局势,使得美国有机会重振其世界领袖的雄风,重新确立美日韩在东亚的铁三角同盟关系,并通过不断的联合军事演习对朝鲜施加了除军事动武以外的巨大压力,同时也侧面敲击和缓解了中国力量在亚太地区伸展的势头。奥巴马的外交理念是做一个实际的理想主义者和一个有理想的现实主义者,其对朝政策的核心策略就是软的更软,硬的更硬,以硬逼软。     

马来西亚“伊斯兰国”与民族国家:争论、影响与趋势

伊斯兰党在20世纪80年代转型后,致力在马来西亚建立"伊斯兰国"。"伊斯兰国"与巫统主导下的民族国家建构是完全不同的建国方向,两者在最高权力的来源、统治阶层、意识形态三方面有着显著的差异。伊斯兰党现阶段重提伊斯兰刑法后,引起马来西亚两线制的重新分化与组合。由于政党之间的建国理念相异,马来西亚未来的建国方向大体上有三种:马来人主导下的民族国家、伊斯兰国和多族群国家。另外,伊拉克与大叙利亚伊斯兰国组织在中东的崛起,令身处伊斯兰世界的马来西亚民族国家体制也面临着来自外部的强烈冲击。     

马来西亚华人如何看待伊斯兰教国

随着伊斯兰复兴运动在马来西亚的发展,代表马来人利益的巫统和伊斯兰教党也转向伊斯兰教寻求合法性.伊斯兰教党要建立政教合一的神权伊斯兰教国,而执政党巫统则提出马来西亚已是世俗的伊斯兰教国,这引起马来西亚华人对国家政体、民主、信仰自由的忧虑,他们反对将马来西亚建成伊斯兰教国.华人社团和反对党民主行动党反对建立任何形式的伊斯兰教国,而执政党马华公会和民政党坚决反对伊斯兰教党的神权伊斯兰教国,但赞同巫统的世俗伊斯兰教国.     

普京政府的俄罗斯东北亚政策特点及影响

普京时期俄罗斯东北亚政策逐渐走向成熟,表现出谋略性、务实性、次要性、机制性、稳定性等多重特点,对东北亚地区安全格局、经济一体化等问题产生重要影响.本文试图通过对此加以分析,找出俄罗斯东北亚政策中的积极因素和制约因素,并就中国应对俄罗斯东北亚政策的策略进行思考.     

艾森豪威尔政府的对华禁运政策

艾森豪威尔政府时期,美国对华政策为全面遏制思想所主导,因此,在欧洲盟国废除“巴统”管制体系中的“中国差别”的情况下,美国依然单独坚持对华禁运政策。