我国离婚率变动趋势及离婚态人群特征分析

从概念辨识入手,利用权威数据,描述近几十年我国离婚率和离婚态的变动趋势及水平。研究发现:我国的离婚率持续增长,超过日本与韩国;因年轻人口总量减少,可结婚人的比例下降,离婚结婚比持续上升。数据分析显示,1982年以来,我国离婚态占比单调上升:就人群特征而言,35-49岁年龄组、男性、中等教育程度人群(1990年除外)、商业服务人员和办事人员(1990年除外)离婚态占比最高,女性的离婚态占比较之男性上升趋势更为明显;就地域分布而言,各省处于离婚态人群的占比呈西高东低、北高南低趋势,东北地区及西部省区城市人群离婚态占比最高。离婚率和离婚态的持续攀升是多重制度、城镇化与市场化结构、家庭与个体特质等因素综合作用的结果。离婚不仅透视出家庭的不稳定性,损害(部分)家庭成员福祉,而且可能引发更大范围的负面效应。在尊重当事人意愿的前提下,必须从源头、过程和后果上加强对离婚行为的社会治理,减少不必要的离婚现象。     

Work,fertility, and the status of women in Mexico

Among the major transformations affecting Mexican women in recent decades were their growing participation in the labor market and the fertility decline that began in the 1970s with widespread access to contraception. Data from 3 major Mexican fertility surveys, employment surveys, and censuses are used to analyze changes in female employment and their determinants during the years of economic recession in the 1980s. The main characteristics of the Mexican fertility decline are described, and the relationship between fertility and female employment before and during the economic recession is scrutinized for different social sectors. Suggestions for research on the affects of these changes on the social condition of Mexican women are then presented. The proportions of Mexican women over 12 years old who declared themselves economically active increased from 16% in 1970 to 21% in 1979 and 32% in 1987. Until the 1970s the majority of employed women were young and single or childless. But a clear increase occurred between 1976-87 in the economic participation of older women in union. Economic participation of low income and less educated women increased as they sought work or created their own in response to deteriorating living conditions during the recession. Young women with intermediate or higher educational levels did not increase their relative presence in the labor market in the same period. The marked increase in economic participation of less educated women in union with small children was accompanied by a significant increase in manual occupations. Between 1982-87, the proportion of women aged 20-49 in nonsalaried manual occupations rose from 7.6% to 18.5%. Mexico's fertility decline has been well documented. The total fertility rate declined from 6.3 in 1973 to 3.8 in 1986, while the percentage of women in union using a contraceptive method increased from 30.2 in 1976 to 52.7 in 1987. Fertility differentials have been declining but are still considerable. The inhibitory influence of children on female labor force participation in Mexico is clear, but in the years of economic recession the most notable increase in female workers was in women with 3 or more children of whom the youngest was under 3. It appears that the influence of children on women's employment depends on the socioeconomic status of the woman as well as on the dynamism or sluggishness of the labor market. Research is needed on the significance of changes in fertility and female employment for women's status in Mexico. Several recent works have presented results of microsocial analyses of the ways in which women experience changes in their lives resulting from fertility and employment decisions. A methodological strategy for studying these changes and their influence on women's status should focus on comparisons between different generations and birth cohorts, different types of employment, and different socioeconomic statuses. Both macrosocial and microsocial forms of analysis are needed to provide a full picture.     

Ghetto poverty among blacks in the 1980s

This article uses 1990 census data to analyze the changes in ghetto poverty among blacks in the 1980s. Ghetto poverty among blacks increased, both in terms of the number of blacks living in ghettos and as a percentage of the black population. The black poor became increasingly isolated in ghettos, with nearly half of the black poor in metropolitan areas living in a ghetto neighborhood. The physical size of ghettos expanded rapidly, even in some metropolitan areas where the percentage of blacks living in ghettos declined. There were striking differences between regions, with the Midwest and Southwest having the largest increases in ghetto poverty while the eastern seaboard had declines.     

Rural local government finance in Zimbabwe: The case of Gokwe District Council

In spite of the many problems inherited at independence in 1980, rural local government in Zimbabwe is, in comparison with many other countries in the region, fairly robust and well organized. This paper examines the Gokwe District Council, one of the more dynamic and potentially very prosperous rural local authorities in the country. The case study shows that the achievements of the council can be explained not only in terms of factors internal to the district, but also in terms of the overall system of local government and finance in Zimbabwe.     

International labour standards: Challenging globalization ideology?

The article centres on the role of differential labour standards in the restructuring of the global economy. The denial of labour rights in Asia is a significant factor in the Asian investment boom and in the employment crises in the OECD countries. The first section outlines the Clinton administration's intervention on labour standards in Asia, the strident reaction from Asian governments and from US business interests, and the administration's rapid retreat into ‘constructive engagement’. The second section considers neo‐liberal arguments advanced in favour of nonintervention in the labour sphere since the freeing up of trade and market forces generates economic growth, which in itself improves labour standards. The assumptions underlying this model are critiqued. Finally, alternatives that recognize the significant influence of labour standards on global investment flows are identified. Here it is argued that the emergence of independent unionism in Asia could have a significant effect on the structure of the the global economy in the longer term.     

Perceptions of Israel in the Armies of Syria, Egypt and Jordan

The reasons for change in state elites' perceptions of the adversary are fiercely contested by realists, constructivistis and neo-liberals in the international relations literature. A series of events – beginning with the October 1973 war and culminating in the Oslo peace process – offers a unique opportunity to assess the value of these theories in explaining change in the perceptions of Israel and Zionism in Syria, Egypt and Jordan. This study is based on articles on Israel and Zionism that appeared in the official army journals of these three states. The analysis suggests that, since the 1973 war, Egypt has perceived Israel as a formidable foe that must be restrained, Syria continues to deny Israel's legitimacy, and Jordan's perceptions of Israel changed dramatically from demonization to recognition. The realist paradigm, which focuses on changes in the regional and international balance of power, does best in explaining variations in the portrayal of Israel amongst these actors. Nevertheless, none of the theories offers a complete, timeless explanation of the issue. The limitations of any single theory to account for change in the perceptions of the adversary suggest that caution should be used in attempting to capture the complexity of social and political life in any single overarching theory.     

我国定罪思路体系性缺陷案解

我国定罪思路具有其固有的体系性缺陷:在整体结构方面,价值评价先于事实评价;在事实评价层面,重主观要素而轻客观要素;在价值评价层面,重心理要素而轻规范要素。应从以下方面考虑重构我国定罪思路:事实判断与价值判断彻底分离并先于价值判断;根据行为整体的不同意义划分思考阶段;在我国定罪体系性思路中引入规范责任论并使之与我国理论契合,构建相对开放的定罪思路。     

经济转型期的政府职能与土地市场发育

土地市场的发育和繁荣与政府所提供的制度规则与激励是分不开的。但由于经济转型期政府职能的“缺位”与“错位”等问题使土地市场的发育仍然存在许多不足。对经济转型期政府在土地市场发育中的职能缺乏规范的分析,对政府在土地市场发育中的职能认识不清是产生上述问题的原因。经济转型期政府职能定位不同于成熟的市场经济国家,对市场的培育非常重要。因此,政府应该在明晰土地权利、培育竞争主体、维护土地市场竞争秩序等方面发挥作用;同时,实施有效的公共政策供给以调控土地市场,从而维护土地市场的良性发育。     

The Imprisonment Crisis in America: Introduction

This article provides an overview of recent trends in imprisonment rates in America and introduces the articles in this issue of The Review of Policy Research. Incarceration rates have increased by more than 500 percent since the early 1970s and have now reached a rate of almost 700, higher than anywhere else in the world. The impact has been particularly hard on racial minorities, especially women (whose incarceration rate went from around 8 in 1975 to 59 in 2001). The “war on drugs” has been one of the main reasons behind the increases in imprisonment, along with the more general “get tough on crime” movement that began in the late 1970s. The articles in this issue center around how this recent trend in incarceration impacts the entire society, but especially poor communities. Several of the articles focus on race, age and gender as important variables, in addition to the tendency of the parole system to sort of “recycle” released prisoners back into the prison system.     

The Party Systems of the Australian States: Patterns of Partisan Competition, 1945-1986

There has been a longstanding interest in the relationship betweenthe party system in reflecting regional diversity and maintainingthe dispersal of power in federations. Given the relative scarcityof information on this question in the Australian federation,this article examines the extent to which the party systemsof the Australian states differ by looking at a number of indicatorssummarizing patterns of partisan support in elections and legislaturesover a period of forty years. Its findings demonstrate persistentdifferences in the structure and dynamics of the state partysystems. In particular, the study shows that, in spite of thedichotomizing tendencies of a parliamentary system, electoralcompetition in the A ustralian states is characterized by astrong tendency to dispersed multi-partyism rather than simplebipartyism, although the individual states occupy varying positionswithin this range. The charting of this partisan diversity isimportant in questioning some of the presumptions of regionaluniformity that have been applied to the study of the Australianfederal system.     

Competitiveness concerns in Hong Kong: business fears and government incomprehension

Much of the analysis of the anti-globalization movement that has emerged in the last five years has focused on the degree to which the Internet has played a crucial role in contemporary social movements. It is commonly argued that the Internet helps create ‘virtual communities’ that use the medium to exchange information, coordinate activities, and build and extend political support. Much of the commentary on the web as a means of political mobilization for social movements stresses the degree to which the Internet compresses both space and time, accelerating the exchange of information among whomever has access to this technology. Equally important in this view is the deterritorialized nature of on-line protest and the diminution in importance of ‘place’ in current anti-globalization campaigns. Certainly this argument features prominently in analyses of the campaign against the Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI) in 1997-98 and the protests against the World Trade Organization (WTO) meetings in Seattle in November and December 1999. Our examination of the antiglobalization movement in Australia however leads us to a different conclusion: that while the Internet does indeed compress time, it compresses space in a different, and indeed quite variable, way. We examine the way in which Australians protested against the MAI and against the WTO meetings in Seattle, and show the differences in the nature of protest in each case. In the MAI case, the protests were well-organized and national in scope, with the Internet playing an important role in organizing the movement. By contrast, in the case of the WTO, the movement was minor and relatively marginal, with the Internet playing little discernible role in galvanizing protest. We conclude that crucial to an understanding of the differences was the considerable difference in the importance of ‘place’ in each case.     

Political Cleavages in Sweden and Norway

The topic of the article is a comparison of voter reactions in Sweden and Norway towards some current political issues. The analysis is based upon nationwide election surveys in 1976 (Sweden) and in 1977 (Norway). Despite the fact that the party systems are different in several ways, the patterns of political attitudes in the two electorates are surprisingly similar. The analysis suggests that political cleavages are basically the same in these two neighbouring countries. Likewise the location of corresponding parties in the two systems is approximately the same in relation to specific cleavages.     

AUSTRALIAN TECHNOLOGY: FOLLY STEALS A MARCH?

Abstract: Australian policy on technology in the second half of the twentieth century is examined in the light of the contest between wisdom and folly in government. The cyclic nature of the relation between industrial evolution and technological development is traced back to the beginning of the industrial revolution, and the importance of leading technologies in those cycles is outlined. It is shown that the high technologies play the role of these leading technologies in modern industrial economies, and that governments play a dominant and fundamental role in their development. Australian governments have avoided this role, leading to relative decline in the high technology industries and consequent suppression of the normal cycle of industrial development in this country. By comparison with past follies of other governments in history, it is seen that this may be regarded as folly.     

The Recruitment of Women Cabinet Ministers in the Canadian Provinces

Although there have been several studies of women in legislatures in Canada, a cabinet position is a much stronger position from which to wield power in an executive-centered and party-disciplined parliamentary system. In the past decade, the increase of women's share of legislative seats, for majority parties as well as others, has led to more women being appointed to cabinet portfolios. This article utilizes data from the ten Canadian provinces over an 18-year period, from 1976 to 1994, to assess patterns of such appointments by province, party, percentage of women in the governing party, and percentage of women in the legislature. The proportion of women in the governing party far outweighs other variables in its impact on the percentage of women in the cabinet, in contrast to a previous study of West European cabinets which found that more women in the legislature was of greater importance. Although a high level of multicollinearity indicates caution in attempting to distinguish between the impact of these two variables, the differences in these studies may be due to Canadian provinces having single-party majority governments while West European cabinets are often coalitions.     

Fighting for relevance: Economic intelligence and special operations executive in Spain, 1943–1945

This article examines the work of the Special Operations Executive (SOE) in Spain during the latter part of the Second World War. Unlike SOE's broad mandate to sow dissent and disarray in occupied countries, in Spain agents were forbidden from any involvement in direct action and sabotage. Diplomatic concerns, namely the maintenance of Spanish neutrality in the war, overrode all other strategic issues in Iberia. SOE agents and leaders in Madrid, therefore, attempted to create a different role for themselves. Drawing on files released in the Public Record Office in 1998, the article highlights SOE's limited success in the effort to establish for itself a part in the Allied strategic and diplomatic campaign against German wolfram smuggling. Success proved fleeting, however, and SOE's ultimate failure, in the face of hostility from the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), to prove its usefulness beyond the wolfram campaign, would lead to its withdrawal from Spain. The story of the SOE in Spain represents, on a small scale, the failure of the organization to find a niche in the British intelligence community after the Second World War.     

Introduction: The Meaning and Employment of 'Civil Society' in Latin America

This article discusses the recent adoption of the concept of civil society by Latin American social movements and political theorists. Our argument is that civil society has been employed in two contexts in Latin America: 1) in the re-interpretation of the ambiguous reception of liberalism in the region; 2) in the analysis of the constitution of a realm of societal autonomy throughout the struggle against authoritarianism. It is our contention in this article that social movements and civil associations are playing a central role in both processes.     

Descent of the nation: Kinship and citizenship in Lebanon

The mechanisms which underpin kinship are mobilized by states to organize the citizenry for state‐building, often transporting patriarchy and (reinscribing it in public arenas. While the gendering and aging of citizenship is predictable in the deployment of patriarchal kin institutions for state‐building, the focus of this paper is less on these outcomes (well theorized elsewhere) and more on a mechanism undertheorized in feminist analyses of patriarchy and state dynamics—patrilineality. Patrilineality is commonly subsumed in feminist analyses of patriarchy, particularly in the study of the Middle East. Understood as kinship descent through the father's lineage, patrilineality is often conflated with patriarchy in societies in which both are present, resulting in the essentialization of patriarchy and a glossing of critical cultural differences in the gendering and aging of citizenship. While kinship in Lebanon has been fluid and Lebanese have mobilized both patrilineal and matrilineal principles of kinship as deemed necessary, the codification of rules of patrilineal descent in citizenship laws by the state has narrowed the spaces for negotiation for women and men, children and adults. By disaggregating patrilineality from patriarchy, this paper exposes a key substructure of patriarchy, significant to the gendering and aging of citizenship in Lebanon.     

Mediated political masculinities: the commander-in-chief vs. the new man

The media play a very influential role in our perceptions of our political leaders, irrespective of where in the world they appear. Since the latter part of the twentieth century, our leaders’ personalities came to play an increasing role in their appeal, in particularly their gendered performances. As Barack Obama's presidency draws to the end of its second term, this paper will examine the representation of his persona in the context of the election in 2008 when he became the first Black US president. Much has been written of him being the first Black president of the USA, however, if we explore his campaign through a gendered lens, we can see that he is equally revolutionary. This contrasts with the gendered construction of male political leaders in other parts of the world, particularly that of Vladimir Putin in Russia. Building on work carried out in relation to the mediatisation and personalisation of politics in the last 50 years, this article shows how gendered performances can be seen to mirror changes in society.     

Democratic Deficit or the Europeanisation of Secession? Explaining the Devolution Referendums in Scotland

This article deals with the variation in the demand for self-government in Scotland – as measured by the vote in the two referendums – between 1979, when devolution was rejected, and 1997, when devolution was endorsed. The existing literature mainly deals with each of the two referendums in isolation and does not offer an explicitly comparative analysis of them. However, implicit comparisons contained in analyses of the 1997 referendum tend to identify as the main cause of the variation the 'democratic deficit' created by Conservative rule between 1979 and 1997, which was consistently rejected in Scotland. I take issue with this explanation on theoretical and empirical grounds and advances an alternative account grounded in an explicit comparison of the two referendums. Based on a rationalist approach, the analysis presented here identifies three key elements in the voting dynamics at the two points in time – a gap between support for self-government and the actual vote in the referendum; an interaction effect between attitudes to devolution and to independence; and the role of the European context in shaping perceptions of independence. I argue that significant change in these three variables (rather than a 'democratic deficit') appear to have been the most important determinants of the different results of the two referendums.     

The end of a strategic opening? The BNP's window of opportunity in the 2000s and its closure in the 2010s

ABSTRACT

Notwithstanding the endemic failure of extreme-right parties in Britain, the British National Party (BNP) observed a period of electoral growth in the 2000s. After the election of several city councillors nationwide, the BNP experienced an electoral breakthrough in the national ballot of the 2009 European Parliament elections. Yet the BNP's electoral accomplishments dissipated in the early 2010s, fuelling predictions of the party's terminal decline. Within this context, Carvalho seeks to explain the fluctuations observed in the BNP's electoral base in the twentieth-first century by exploring the structure of political opportunities alongside the strategy of the BNP's leadership. Drawing on the convergence thesis and the decline of voting along class lines, he argues that the BNP benefitted from a favourable set of political opportunities in the 2000s, reflecting the decrease in political polarization among mainstream parties, the rise in levels of public distrust, and the intense politicization of the issue of immigration. Despite a general shift to cultural xenophobia, the BNP's leadership remained attached to the ideological traits of neo-fascist parties, including the search for a ‘palingenetic rebirth’ and a national corporatist economic programme. These ideological formulae had important implications for the scope of the BNP's electoral coalition, as Carvalho demonstrates in a review of the secondary literature on the roots of the BNP's electoral support. Consequently, the BNP's electoral growth in the 2000s was the outcome of an interplay between a favourable window of opportunity in British politics and the party's electoral appeal. Carvalho goes on to link the BNP's electoral collapse in the early 2010s with the closing of the aforementioned window after the onset of the financial crisis, a temporary lack of political interest in the issue of immigration, and the formation of the coalition government in 2010.