韩国FTA政策与东亚区域主义的未来

本文首先阐述了韩国过去与现在的贸易政策,以及韩国FTA政策从区域内向区域外的转变,并分别从国际、地区和国内三个层面详细分析了这一转变的原因。在此基础上,探讨了韩国跨区域自由贸易协定对东亚区域主义的影响。随着更多的亚洲国家签订自由贸易协定,将对东亚区域经济一体化产生积极影响。东亚跨区域自由贸易协定面临的最大挑战是,东亚各国是否有能力来共同协调相互间的利益。     

Paramilitary motivation in Ukraine: beyond integration and abolition

Abstract

A common theme in historical and contemporary warfare is the role of militias. Militias, both pro-government and rebel, act beyond their sponsors or else they would be understood as part of the armies that go to war. We think of militias as paramilitaries, approximate but not collocated with the military. Paramilitaries are ordinarily recruited and resourced differently. They are also ordinarily tactically different, playing a role in front line warfare where the intensity may be high, but where the position is fast changing or distributed in local areas. As the conflict literature will show, militias, or paramilitaries, are a common feature of any conflict and thus it is no surprise that we see their use in Ukraine. For the conflict in Ukraine, we use the term paramilitaries to indicate those forces that are fighting at the front line for both the Kyiv government and rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk, with these being considered ‘pro-Russian’ and even include Russian citizens. Relying on the pro-government militias literature, we show how militias on both sides play an important role in the conflict but also pose the biggest threat to a sustainable peace.     

Cross-national integration in Northeast Asia: Geopolitical and economic goals in conflict

To shed light on conflicting views of the regional readjustment under way, this article views Northeast Asia from various geographical angles. It compares local strategies for regionalism, identifying the perspectives of six border cities, two each in China, Japan, and Russia. Problems of regionalism are treated in light of the poor fit among local strategies. The past five years have produced more conflict than cooperation, which can also be explained by differing national strategies. The article examines linkages among the region’s powers, suggesting how they affect regionalism, and concludes with an analysis of divergence in national strategies.     

Japan's security strategy: Meeting the needs of a new era

A new era has dawned, but the US and Japan remain in a security relationship of parent to child, says Toshiyuki Shikata, professor of inter‐cultural studies at Teikyo University and retired lieutenant general in Japan's Ground Self‐Defense Force. He draws on his familiarity with security issues to examine Japan's strategic challenges in the new era, Japan's role in the alliance, and Japan's defense modernization. He denounces avoiding international security responsibilities due to alleged constitutional constraints, and says that a seat on the UN Security Council would allow Japan to share the full risks and responsibilities in discharging international obligations.     

The integration of cooptation and coercion: China’s Taiwan strategy since 2001

In the past half-decade, China has developed a careful balance of cooptative and coercive power in its attempts to dampen the Taiwan independence movement and pursue political unification. In essence, attempts to curry favor with politically relevant constituencies on Taiwan have been paired with attempts to diplomatically isolate and militarily threaten the island's top policymakers. This balance is risky because of the possibility that it may appear too lenient to PRC nationalists, and too provocative to ROC residents. Nevertheless, the current structure of carrots and sticks has emerged for three reasons. First, the institutional coherence of Chinese decision-making and implementation has allowed for the viability of an adaptive, long-term approach. Second, the constraints on both unreinforced cooptation and coercive diplomacy have mediated toward a posture in which the former is enhanced and the latter downplayed. Third, expanded external opportunities in recent years have made it possible to exploit this middle ground.     

Problems of Russian economic reforms and prospects for economic cooperation between the Russian Far East and Northwest pacific countries

This article was originally prepared for a roundtable conference on “Perspectives on Economic Issues in the Northwest Pacific in a Dramatically Changing World,” held February 28–March 1, 1992, in Oiso, Japan. The cosponsors of the conference were Mitsui Marine Research Institute, the Japan Economic Foundation, and The American Council on Asian and Pacific Affairs.     

亚洲经济一体化——基于多国FTA战略角度

过去十年内,亚洲经济一体化取得了长足的发展,这一地区的主要经济体开始广泛地参与到区域经济一体化进程中。但是,由于历史纠葛、经济规模和发展水平差异,各方的区域经济一体化战略存在很大的差异。区域内外各方力量的博弈,更为亚洲经济一体化的未来发展增加了新的不确定性,也使得亚洲经济一体化开始逐渐偏离亚洲统一市场/大范围的区域FTA目标。唯有未来亚洲经济体经济实力格局发生变化,才可能从内部促成亚洲经济一体化回归其既定目标。     

Production networks,economic integration and the services sector: Implications for regional trade agreements in southern Africa

Debate on an appropriate framework for economic integration in southern Africa has hitherto focused largely on matters relating to trade in final goods, with little analysis of the potential benefits of production sharing and fragmented trade, or of challenges related to the accompanying role of the services sector. The first goal of this article is thus to explore the possible benefits for the development of specialisation and trade expansion related to the international fragmentation of production, and whether such benefits may be better harnessed by southern African countries in a context of regional integration. Secondly, the critical role of the services sector in production-sharing arrangements leads to questions about developing country services sectors and regional versus multilateral services liberalisation. The article therefore considers the importance of the services sector in the fragmentation context, and the growing debates surrounding services aspects of developing country regional trade agreements. It is argued that while there may be a case for the promotion of production-sharing arrangements in regional trade agreements in southern Africa, key constraints that continue to hinder the region's trade and development agenda remain the conflicting rules of origin in economic arrangements with overlapping membership, and non-tariff barriers to trade, particularly intra-regional transport costs.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》背景下中日韩自由贸易区建设:影响与前景

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的缔结为加速中日韩自由贸易协定谈判创造了条件.然而,日韩两国对区域经济合作走向的调整以及三国围绕RCEP+议题的博弈、中美战略竞争等因素对中日韩自由贸易协定的复杂影响依然存在,中方加速协定谈判面临挑战.在新冠肺炎疫情防控常态化背景下,中日韩自由贸易协定对三方管控供应链风险、加速经济复苏、打造地区最终消费市场、推动东亚区域经济一体化升级具有重要的战略意义.而协定的关键在于中国能否在全球主要经济体当中率先实现强劲复苏,促使日韩主要从经济收益视角审视协定的价值,管控相互竞争与制衡思维,搁置争议、加强合作.     

Regional transport challenges within the Southern African Development Community and their implications for economic integration and development

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) seeks to deepen economic integration among its members through the SADC free trade area that came into effect in January 2008. The thrust for a progressive reduction of tariff and no-tariff barriers, which the market integration model emphasises, has serious implications for the impact of transport and communication systems on economic integration and development within SADC.

Transport and communications systems have an important bearing on economic integration and development because they can be significant non-tariff barriers. The SADC Protocol on Transport, Communications and Meteorology is the instrument through which transport and communications constraints are to be addressed. Through this protocol, some institutions have been established and others proposed to ensure that projects designed to deepen economic integration and development are implemented effectively.

The neo-functional integration approach is a relevant theoretical framework for analysing transport and communications issues and for implementing joint sectoral projects in areas that impact on overcoming development-related deficiencies in production and infrastructure. Transport and communications fall in this category of projects and the SADC region has benefited from functional co-operation in this sector.

As integration proceeds, polarisation of industries could occur, raising concerns about the distributional effects of economic integration as this affects development. However, polarisation is not inevitable: it depends on transport costs. This might seriously address transport and communications constraints because, if these are greatly reduced and eventually removed, weaker SADC countries need not lose industries to the core with the SADC Free Trade Area in place.     

澳门:"东方迈阿密"--论构建一个文明对话与国际交流的平台

澳门是一个历史悠久的国际贸易枢纽,也是东西方文明交汇之地.回归祖国后的澳门,正面临着中国内地加快推进现代化和加速融入全球化的重大发展机遇.澳门最突出的比较优势,就是拥有多元文化的丰厚历史积淀和自由港的基本制度安排,这是澳门参与全球化竞争与合作的两张"王牌".充分发挥这两大优势,澳门就能够成为中国面向葡语国家和拉丁语系国家的开放门户,成为"东方迈阿密",成为一个全球化时代的文明对话与国际交流平台.     

体系、社会和国家:理解《美韩自由贸易协定》

2007年6月,美韩双方签署了《美韩自由贸易协定》。美韩之间为什么要签署该协定?该协定对两国国内分别产生了哪些影响?该协定为何至今没能获得美国国会的通过?针对上述问题,本文结合美国贸易政策理论,从体系、国家和社会三个层面对其进行了分析。《美韩自由贸易协定》的签署及其实施,在体系层面上将会为双方带来经济、政治和战略上的多重收益,而在社会层面上却产生了不同的反应。尽管由于国内经济困难和利益集团的掣制使得协定的通过还面临不小的阻力,但基于协定所蕴含的重要价值和两国政府对此认识的高度一致,协定获得通过只是时间上的问题。