The Policies and Politics of Control: Countering Argentina's Uniformed and Unemployed Protesters

Like many new democracies, Argentina has struggled with contentious movements that have challenged its precarious stability. Two very different sectors have led particularly powerful opposition movements: the military—associated historically with the abuse of power—and the unemployed workers, with important support from prestigious human rights organizations. This article looks both at how the political standing of the sector (military versus civil society) influences policy choices and at how these policy choices influence whether opposition movements remain mobilized and contentious. It argues that situation‐alleviating policies—those that successfully address interests of the sector as a whole—tend to be more successful in defusing contentious movements than policies relying on coercion, concessions, or co‐optation of mobilized opposition groups. Situation alleviation depletes the contentious groups of possible recruits, while policies targeting the mobilized opposition may inadvertently motivate those actors to remain mobilized.     

The Role of Leaders in Intra-Alliance Bargaining

This article develops a theory about the role of leaders in long-term international bargaining, specifically in the context of negotiations within existing military alliances. The international relations literature suggests that domestic opposition (to cooperation on a particular issue) increases a state’s bargaining power vis-á-vis its negotiating partner. This study confirms that domestic opposition to cooperation generally increases a state’s bargaining power at the international level, but it suggests that domestic opposition to the state’s leader – which affects the leader’s vulnerability – does not have a uniform effect on the country’s bargaining power. It demonstrates the central role a state leader plays in international bargaining and explains the dynamics of alliance negotiations left unexplained in the literature. In order to examine the argument, this study uses “structured, focused comparison” of the U.S. alliances with Japan and Spain.     

军队从政坛的退出与韩国社会转型:基于自然政府的视角

文章利用诺斯等人发展起来的基于自然政府的精英主义理论框架,重点讨论了对军队的政治控制与韩国从有限准入向开放准入社会转型之间的关系。分析表明,从20世纪60年代初开始,一批围绕朴正熙和全斗焕的军事精英通过建立一个包括军队官员、政党政治家、高级政府官员和资本家阶层在内的统治联盟,从整体上控制国家和社会,从而重建了韩国的有限准入社会秩序。然而这个相对稳定的社会秩序不是一成不变的,随着经济的快速发展和相应的社会结构的变化,社会反对势力尤其是中产阶级和工人阶层不断成长,军人执政联盟最终自掘坟墓,被迫于20世纪80年代末从政坛退出并将其归还给市民社会。沿着这一主题,文章分析了韩国对军队的政治控制过程及竞争性政治和经济市场的出现,指出两种市场的建立标志着韩国社会转型的完成。     

Cocoa, Finance and the State in Ecuador, 1895–1925

Abstract— In 1895 liberal forces, dedicated to the modernisation of their country's economic, social and political structures, came to power in Ecuador. The transformation was to be brought about on the basis of income from the profitable cocoa trade. Closely linked to the agro-mercantile élite of Guayaquil, the liberals embarked upon an ambitious programme of reform. By the early 1920s, however, their hopes had been shattered by the decline of the cocoa trade and the impact of the First World War. Heavily indebted to Guayaquil banks and facing mounting domestic opposition, the liberals were overthrown by the military in July 1925.     

Presidential activism and government termination in dual-executive Ukraine

The limits on presidential authority in premier-presidential regimes permit legislatures to wield preeminent influence over government formation and termination. This article shows that even without formal powers to dismiss the prime minister, the president may play a decisive role in government replacement. The article compares three successful and one failed attempt by the president to unseat the prime minister in Ukraine under a premier-presidential system. Based on a review of the significance of 10 variables accounting for presidential activism, it finds that the president’s informal control over institutional veto players as well as the unity of his party faction and cooperation of opposition groups were necessary for the success of attempted cabinet turnover.     

Rewarding Lula: Executive Power, Social Policy, and the Brazilian Elections of 2006

This article analyzes Luiz Inácio da Silva's resounding reelection victory in the wake of corruption scandals implicating his party and government. Voters with lower levels of economic security and schooling played a critical role in returning Lula to the presidency. Least prone to punish the president for corruption, poorer Brazilians were also the most readily persuaded by the provision of material benefits. Minimum wage increases and the income transfer program Bolsa Família expanded the purchasing power of the poor. Thus, executive power and central state resources allowed Lula to consolidate a social base that had responded only weakly to his earlier, party-based strategy of grassroots mobilization for progressive macrosocietal change. Although Lula won handily, the PT's delegation to Congress shrank for the first time, and the voting bases of president and party diverged. The PT benefited far less than the president himself from government investment in social policy.     

The Collapse of Fujimorismo: Authoritarianism and its Limits

The resignation of Alberto Fujimori as president of Peru and the convening of fresh elections for 2001 invites a reassessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the Fujimorato . Fujimori's was a hybrid regime, an uneasy admixture of democratic and autocratic elements. While following prescribed election timetables and tolerating certain opposition, this was an authoritarian government. Grounded on a pact with the armed forces and involving a concentration of presidential power, its support was organised along populist lines that took advantage of the weakness of political parties. However, as the regime's demise suggests, the tension between democratic and autocratic elements could never be properly reconciled.     

Democratic control of the armed forces: Lessons from East Asia

How and why do countries democratize? Why does the military intervene in politics? The development of a country from an authoritarian regime to a system of democratic governance is a process which has fascinated scholars and politicians alike. In the following article, Fidel V.Ramos, former president of the Philippines (1992–1998) and president of the Ramos Peace and Development Foundation, Inc., provides his own perspective on the role of the military in shaping and protecting a society, delving into his own experiences as a former army general and defense secretary. He also examines the rationale behind, and current status of, East Asian countries in the process of transformation from a military regime to a democratically governed society.     

President Museveni and the politics of presidential tenure in Uganda

There are various reasons why President Museveni is so determined to hold on to power in Uganda. These are similar to the ones motivating other African presidents seeking to entrench themselves in office. Museveni believes he is indispensable for Uganda's stability and prosperity, especially in a country devastated by bad leadership in earlier post-independence decades. Moreover, Museveni and his close allies are fearful of being prosecuted under a new president for alleged wrongdoings.

Opposition to Museveni's continued stay in power has come from within the ruling party, as well as other parties and the Buganda kingdom. But, as elsewhere in Africa, the opposition is too weakly developed to challenge Museveni effectively. Also, presidential manipulations, election rigging, and coercive measures have helped to secure Museveni's grip on power. In particular, Museveni has used the military to entrench himself in office.

Moreover, as in some African countries, international pressures to force Museveni to relinquish power are limited. In fact, donors have propped up a quasi-authoritarian regime with large amounts of resources. Museveni has overseen a prolonged period of economic and political stability and donors argue he deserves their support, even when his record on democracy and good governance is tainted.

In Africa, presidential incumbents who have stepped down have done so because of the strength of domestic and international pressures. Where political opposition is organised and united or where international donors use their aid to promote greater democratisation, then leaders are more likely to abandon plans to stay in power. It is the absence of such conditions and pressures that are leading to the creation of a life presidency in Uganda.     

IRAN OBSERVED: THE RISE OF THE IRANIAN NEO-CONSERVATIVES

McDowall relates how in 2005, contrary to the predictions of many western observers, Ahmadinejad was elected as President of Iran, reflecting popular disillusion with the reformist president, Khatami, and the rise of a new generation of politicians, whose relationships had been forged during the war with Iraq. Ahmadinejad came to power at an opportune moment: he could profile himself as an opponent of America and Israel. Wholesale changes in personnel formed the other mark of his revolution. Four years on, his populist economic policies have not proved effective, which could be significant in terms of the 2009 presidential elections. The crucial question is whether there is a suitable opposition candidate who might run against him. This is the edited text of the lecture which he gave to the Society on Wednesday 7 May 2008.     

以武力取代影响力:美国软实力的削弱

自布什政府上台以来,美国在国际事务中奉行单边主义政策.阿富汗战争后,美国穷兵黩武,不顾国际社会的和平努力,发动了伊拉克战争.其放纵单边主义和军事本能的做法招致了国际社会的强烈反对和不满,国家的影响力和吸引力受到重创.伊战中的情报失真事件和虐囚丑闻更使其恶化的国际形象雪上加霜,美国的软实力在不断受到削弱.     

A democratic dictator's success: how Chad's President Deby defeated the military opposition in three years (2008–2011)

This article focuses on how President Deby re-gained power after a nearly successful coup d'état against him in February 2008. The analysis points towards one major external reason for success and a divided internal strategy. The international community's little interest in Chad and the desire for political stability among the few interested states are the main external reasons for Deby's success. Internally, Deby's use of violence and co-optation explain his success. Deby defeated the Chadian military opposition by combining co-optation of adversaries in Chad's patrimonial marketplace.     

Despite Insurgency: Reducing Military Prerogatives in Colombia and Peru

Colombia and Peru made significant progress in reducing the institutional prerogatives of their respective militaries in the 1990s and 2000s while reforming their economies in a neoliberal direction. They accomplished this despite internal armed threats to state authority and stability. The end of the Cold War, U.S. promotion of "market democracies," and the international centrality of free markets and formal democratic governance coincided with the rise to power in Peru and Colombia of "neoliberal policy coalitions." The internal insurgency mitigated the emergence of antiglobalization or antidemocratic reform factions in the military and civil society. The armed forces unified behind their counterinsurgency mission, and opposition in civil society was weakened, creating greater space for neoliberal elites to reform their economies and reduce military prerogatives.     

The Gambian 2016 Presidential Election and its Aftermath

This article explores the Gambian presidential election of December 2016, which was very surprisingly won by the leader of an opposition coalition, Adama Barrow, and its extraordinary aftermath. Barrow defeated Yahya Jammeh, who had won the four previous presidential elections, thus ending Jammeh’s 20-year rule of The Gambia, which had been marred by human rights abuses. Jammeh at first accepted the result, but changed his mind a week later, thus triggering a major political crisis. Over the next month, he made various desperate attempts to cling to power, before finally leaving the country on 21 January 2017, when faced with the prospect of being removed by force. Barrow, who had earlier been inaugurated as president, finally returned to Banjul on 26 January to assume office. The article concludes by considering the possible key features of a Barrow presidency and assesses the challenges that he will face.     

Electoral Competition and the New Party System in Mexico

Mexico's former opposition parties had specific social bases that would not, on their own, have catapulted either opposition party into power. In the 1990s, specific regional bases of support developed for the parties, reflecting their efforts to develop their organizations more locally. Nationally, this led to the emergence of two parallel two-party systems, PAN-PRI competition in the north and center-west and PRD-PRI competition in the south. In parallel, a proregime-antiregime cleavage came to dominate the Mexican party system, which, combined with local-level opposition efforts to oust the PRI, created new incentives for the opposition parties to abandon past emphases on ideological differences and to act like catch-all parties instead. The regime cleavage fostered the dealignment of the Mexican electorate, a process that promoted the development of catch-all parties. Movement within the parties to behave like catch-all parties has not come without internal tensions, but electoral dynamics prove powerful inducements to catch-all behavior.     

Lawmaking and Decree Making in the Russian Federation: Time,Space, and Rules in Russian National Policymaking

Russia's 1993 constitution created a hybrid presidential-parliamentary system in which the president has the power to initiate and veto legislation and to issue normative decrees. Using a comprehensive examination of laws and decrees promulgated in 1994-2004, three political scientists identify key influences on the use of lawmaking and decree-making powers by the president and parliament: constitutional constraints on the use of decree-making power, temporal considerations, and the effect of change in the policy distance between the president and the Duma. The interplay of these forces is illustrated in a case study of the use of law and decree in setting policy on land ownership.     

The Worst Is Not over Yet: The Lives and Deaths of the ‘Self’ and ‘Others’ in Brazil's Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper focuses on the politics of life and death in Bolsonaro's Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is argued that while this administration, and the president himself, have long supported violence against individuals and social groups they did not see as fully human, their response to the pandemic marked a public transition from valuing certain kinds of lives as opposed to others, to a general contempt for human lives. The paper explores this transition by discussing the reification of the economy to the detriment of the people who produce and consume.     

The geography of regime survival: Abacha's Nigeria

This article examines the state-creation process in Nigeriain the context of military regime survival in the 1990s. Nigeriaentered a period of protracted political crisis following theannulment of the 12 June 1993 presidential election and theentrenchment of the Abacha military government. The southwest,or Yorubaland,was the hotbed of opposition to continued militaryrule. This research shows how the Abacha government utilizedthe neo-colonial strategy of ‘divide and survive’to fragment opposition in Yorubaland, and how the governmentdivided regional opposition both socially and spatially. A localcoalition of Ekiti elites chose statehood over solidarity withtheir fellow Yorubas opposing Abacha, particularly those alignedwith Afenifere and the Oduduwa People’s Congress. Newstate movements — like that for Ekiti State — promotedmore local identities at the expense of pan-Yoruba solidarityand unified opposition to the regime. The article is based onsix months of fieldwork in Nigeria in 2002, including a casestudy of the movement for the creation of Ekiti State. Overall,it seeks to contribute to our understanding of the geographyof regime survival.     

You Win Some, You Lose Some: Constitutional Reforms in Chile's Transition to Democracy

Chile's 1989 constitutional reforms constituted a trade-off: the military gave up protected democracy provisions but acquired greater autonomy. The democratic opposition could accept or reject, but not modify, constitutional changes proposed by the outgoing dictatorship. This study addresses a very limited time period in the transition to democracy: the moment after the transition has been secured and transitional rules have been established. The dynamics of this period differ markedly from those in the larger democratic transition. The approach in this study complements alternative explanations of why the 1989 reforms benefited the outgoing dictatorship more than the incoming democratic government. Although the outgoing regime granted several opposition demands by reducing restrictions on political pluralism and eliminating barriers to political party activity, it also secured provisions that made the military more independent of civilian authorities than originally conceived in the 1980 Constitution.     

“地缘政治欧洲”:欧盟力量的地缘政治转向?

新一届欧盟委员会明确将自己定位为“地缘政治欧委会”,预示着欧盟对外政策出现地缘政治转向,“地缘政治欧洲”或将成为欧盟力量的新标签。“地缘政治欧洲”的定位,是对此前欧盟作为“民事力量”“规范力量”和“联系力量”的补充和修正。基于对自身地缘敏感性与脆弱性的新认知,加强欧盟在地缘政治世界中的力量已成为欧洲政治精英的共识。“地缘政治欧洲”包含内外双层地缘结构,不仅要加强军事力量,向陆权倾斜,还要巩固内部堡垒,强化欧洲地缘政治参与者的主体性与空间性,工具化欧盟经济力量,加大数字与技术、基础设施领域的竞争。中国应重视“地缘政治欧洲”的回归,主动调整对欧方略,推动中欧战略对接。