香格里拉对话的演进与前景

今年是香格里拉对话成立10周年,也是其面临转型的关键时期。10年来,香格里拉对话规模逐渐增大,层次不断提升,已经成为促进东亚地区政治与安全交流的重要平台,也成为国防官员、军事人员、政策分析家以及媒体人士交流信息、沟通立场的轨道和场所。今年的吞格里拉对话体现了议题选择的灵活性和针对性。以香格里拉对话为代表的东亚安全外交正在机制化,形成自己独具特色的模式与规范,在相互竞争的过程中共同推进东亚安全治理,促进地区的和平与稳定。     

香格里拉对话:缘起、特征及其对亚太安全的影响

香格里拉对话(SLD)是“9·11事件”后亚太地区新出现的多边安全合作对话机制。“9·11”后亚太地区安全形势和安全议程的新变化,第二轨道外交的新发展和防务外交的兴起及转型,是SLD产生的重要原因。近年来,SLD的规模和影响日益扩大,并呈现出包容性、灵活性、开放性、创新性和实效性等特征。SLD实际已经成为亚太地区开展防务外交和“一轨半”外交的重要平台。尽管其安全机制尚不成熟,但作为重要的信任建立措施,SLD的存在和发展仍然丰富了亚太地区多边安全合作的形式与内容,已经并将继续对亚太地区多边安全合作进程产生影响。     

香格里拉对话与中美军事互动

香格里拉对话是亚太多边安全框架下中美军事互动的新平台。自对话会启动以来,中美互动经历了从激烈交锋到坦诚交流的转变。中美互动的积极变化折射出近年来中美军事关系趋向好转,是多边框架下中美军事良性互动的起点,但要进一步改善中美军事关系还任重道远。     

英文摘要

Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean and China＇s Strategy Shi Chunlin The maritime routes of the Indian Ocean are of critical importance to China given perceived seurity threat in this region and China＇s increasing relevance of intersts. There comes to be a strategic imperative for China to step in efforts to gain a credible security reassurance in terms of substantial China＇s overseas energy shipments and its increasing sense of insecurity caused by the emerging conflict of interests with other powers. The author believes that China would have a better capacity to cope with any potential crisis or emergencies given defining its proactive countermeasures and taking calibrated but result--oriented operation.     

英文摘要

1.International Strategic Situation in the ＂Post-crisis Era＂ and Its Development Trend, by Gao Zugui, Senior Research Fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Studies, and Guest Researcher, CPDS. The Post-Cold War international setup feels a strong urge for change after the financial and economic crisis sweeping across the entire world. While the U.S. is still the sole world superpower in terms of its comprehensive strength, the gap between that of the As big powers and power groups are busy making U.S. and those of the other big powers is narrowing down. strategic alignments in prospect of a multi-polar world, relations between and among them are going to take on a new look. Competitions between and among them still carry the day, and are going to be even more intense in various fields.     

ABSTRACTS

Armed Intervention of ECOWAS of the Conflicts in West Africa： Background, Process and Trends     

ABSTRACTS

The New Situation of Re-balance in the Asian-Pacific Region and Its Prospect
The Asian-Pacific region is the center of world growth and is in the process of power ＂re-balancing＂. The return of the U. S. to East Asia is the result of power structural change within the region rather than the initial motivation. All the variables emerged from the development process in East Asia requested that the power centers within the region design a regional security framework together. China has responded positively to such request and taken it as first priority in her policy toward the Asian-Pacific region to prevent the intensification of disputes and the outbreak of large scale military conflicts. But, under the present circumstances of continuing power structure change, China is faced with tremendous challenges, the biggest of which may come from Japan, in reaching her goals.     

ABSTRACTS

Saudi Arabia： the Strategic Pivot of American Middle East Policy Feng Jihua The U.S. pursued different strategies toward the Middle East in and after the Old War. During the Old War, the major strategic goals of the U.S. included ensuring stable oil supply from the Middle East and security of Israel, and containing the Soviet expansion in the region. In the post Cold War era, in addition to ensuring stable oil supply and security of Israel, its Middle East strategy also includes actively promotion of Western style democracy in the region. As the ideologies of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are totally different and they have contrasting stances over the Palestinian-lsraeli issue, there have been some collisions between the two countries since they established diplomatic relations. Nonetheless, their relationship has been built upon the basis of practical interest, which has transcended their differences in political systems, ideology and foreign policies, and their strategic cooperation continues. In the near future, Saudi Arabia will maintain the important position as a strategic pivot for American Middle East policy.     

ABSTRACTS

New Risks in the Recovery of the World Economy： The Growth of Sovereign Debts and Crisis
Gu Yuanyang
During the financial crisis and economic recession, various economies have adopted expansionist financial and monetary policies. While anti-crisis measures have to some extend stopped the ＂free fall＂ economic decline, they have caused the public debts of both developed economies and some emerging economies to expand. The emerging economies of Asia should draw lessons and warnings from the sovereign debt crisis of Greece and make a balanced choice between economic recovery as well as growth and adoption of anti-cycle measures.     

ABSTRACTS

The Strategic Reliance of African Countries on Asia in regard of Several Major International Issues
He Wenping
In the historic transiton period of the early stage in 21st century, international setup has experiencing tremendous turbulence and readjustment. Although dissatisfied with only one representative in G20, African countries still happy to see the transition from G8 to G20 and also wish to benefit more from the cooperation with the emerging Asian countries in the field of the reform of UN Security Council and the climate change, etc.