Over-simplification and error in public opinion surveys on capital punishment

Public opinion polls have shown a marked increase in support for capital punishment. Results of a recent poll, which resulted from collaboration between the author and Associated Press, further clarify published findings of public opinion polls and challenge the common wisdom that support for the death penalty is increasing. It was found that only 12 percent of those polled opposed the death penalty in all cases, that 57 percent advocated its use under some circumstances and that 27 percent supported the death penalty for all murder cases. These findings differ little from those reported by Louis Harris in 1973 (Bedau 1982).     

Why public opinion changes: the implications for health and health policy

Research on stasis or change in public opinion toward health, health policy, and medical care tends to focus on short-term dynamics and to emphasize the impact of discrete messages communicated by individual speakers in particular situations. This focus on what we term "situational framing," though valuable in some respects, is poorly equipped to assess changes that may occur over the longer term. We focus, instead, on "structural framing" to understand how institutionalized public health and health care policies impact public opinion and behavior over time. Understanding the dynamics of public opinion over time is especially helpful in tracking the political effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 as it moves from the debate over its passage to its implementation and operation.     

公众舆论对公共政策的影响述评

公众舆论是公众以内心深处的政治文化价值体系为标准,并经一定渠道由公众自主表达的对当前政治事务和公共政策的意见。公众舆论关注的焦点是公共政策的制定和执行。公众关注的程度越高．表明公众参与的热情越高，对公共政策的影响也就越大。公众舆论对公共政策的影响主要体现在内容、形式、功能和实践四个方面。     

Regional variations in public opinion on the affordable care act

One year after passage, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) remains a divisive topic. Most publicly released polls on the law have focused on the views of Americans as a whole. But with much of the responsibility of implementation lying with the states, this essay explores whether opinion differs geographically. The analysis finds that views on the health reform law do differ by region, and these differences are most likely driven by the political leanings of a given area. While opinion nationally differs by age and race, this pattern does not hold when looking by region. Areas that have a larger share of uninsured and are slated to receive greater federal funding under the ACA also do not differ in their opinions. These data suggest that regional variations in attitudes about the ACA are based less on the demographic structure of a region and more on the political ideologies of residents in a given region. As implementation of the law continues, this analysis shows that national opinion data mask important regional variations in views of the ACA.     

Guess who's coming to dinner? A preliminary model for the satisfaction of public opinion as a legitimate aim in sentencing

This paper provides a preliminary outline of a possible model of how the satisfaction of public opinion could be used in a rational system of sentencing. As public opinion data concerning the criminal justice system is becoming increasingly sophisticated and readily available, and public opinion clearly plays a role in the sentencing decision, a model whereby the satisfaction of public opinion may be judiciously and effectively incorporated into the sentencing system is urgently required. Some of the pitfalls of using public opinion data are also highlighted as a caveat to the feasibility of such a model. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

理想、官方、民间——浅议舆论的三个层次

作为一个社会科学研究领域的逻辑起点,舆论概念本身的定义就有许多争议,这是由舆论学自身特点决定的.但无论差异多大,我们在理解"舆论"二字时,都应该认识到它是复杂的、多层次的,理想状态下的舆论指的是在诸多前提条件下的人们对全息信息的独立认识结果;官方控制下的舆论是政治舆论学设想的理想状态,也是现实生活中的常态舆论的主体;民间隐藏的舆论相对于官方控制舆论而言,官方控制越严,民间隐藏的舆论的存在形态和存在方式越多样.     

Battered woman and public opinion: Some realities about the myths

Expert testimony regarding the battered woman syndrome is often presented at trial on behalf of women charged with killing their batterers. Where courts have admitted such testimony into evidence, they have done so on the theory that the testimony is needed to dispel common myths regarding battered women—e.g., erroneous beliefs that battered women are masochists, who are somehow responsible for the battering they suffer and could avoid being battered by simply leaving their batterers. To date, however, there is no published empirical evidence that either jurors or members of the public at large hold such erroneous beliefs. The results of this study provide empirical support for the judicial hypothesis. These results suggest that many members of the general public eligible for jury duty do, in fact, hold erroneous, stereotyped beliefs about battered women.     

Can information change public opinion? Another test of the Marshall hypotheses

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall offered his opinion regarding the utility of public opinion polls as a tool for assessing the “evolving standards of decency” regarding capital punishment. His arguments became known as the Marshall hypotheses and spawned a considerable body of empirical testing. The three Marshall hypotheses are: (1) support for capital punishment is inversely associated with knowledge about it, (2) exposure to information about capital punishment produces sentiments in opposition to capital punishment, but (3) exposure to information about capital punishment will have no impact on those who support it for retributive reasons. The results of previous tests of these hypotheses were somewhat mixed but supportive. None of these studies, however, examined the effects of change in knowledge levels with changes, if any, in death penalty attitudes and beliefs as needed for a more complete test of the Marshall hypotheses. The present study addressed this shortcoming. The results provided mixed support for these three hypotheses. That is, death penalty supporters were somewhat less informed than death penalty opponents; exposure to death penalty information and knowledge gains tended to be associated with attitudinal change in a directions suggested by these hypotheses; but, retributivists' attitudes toward and beliefs about capital punishment were not any more resistant to change than were the attitudes and beliefs of non-retributivists.     

Policy feedback and public opinion: the role of employer responsibility in social policy

This study extends the literature on policy feedback and explores the extent to which public attitudes reflect learning from past government initiatives. We analyze the ways in which feedback mechanisms affecting public attitudes may differ from those earlier identified in the literature. We apply this general analytic framework to help explain variation in public attitudes toward private employer involvement in health care, explore possible causal pathways, and offer some preliminary empirical tests of these hypotheses. There are different levels of public support for the notion of employer obligation involving medical care, long-term care, and the treatment of substance abuse. Our evidence suggests that lessons about the performance of institutions in each of these policy domains represent the most important effect of existing policy on public attitudes. Furthermore, these differences correspond to what one would expect based on our model of policy feedback and cannot be explained by other plausible sources of policy legitimacy.     

The age of death: Appraising public opinion of juvenile capital punishment

Despite its original purpose to protect and rehabilitate wayward children, the juvenile system has grown more punitive and has embraced the use of harsher punishments, including execution, for juvenile offenders. Relatively little is known, however, about public attitudes toward the use of capital punishment for juveniles. This research explored the determinants of death penalty opinion, identified the minimum age at which respondents were willing to allow a juvenile to be put to death and examined the willingness of respondents to support an alternative sentence of life without the possibility of parole (LWOP). The results suggested that, while one-quarter of the sample was willing to execute juveniles who were fifteen and under at the time of the crime, there was less support for the execution of juveniles than of adults. In addition, of those who supported the use of the death penalty for juveniles, almost one-half would support LWOP as an alternative to the death penalty.     

坚持正确舆论导向重视文化安全建设

随着我国综合国力在世界舞台上的提高,开放的中国已经成为世界经济的一分子.金融、战争、能源等全球性的危机也不能避免地接踵而来;从国内情况看,我国正处于社会转型期,这一时期必然面临诸多复杂的公共安全问题,食品安全、社会治安、高强度传染病爆发、环境破坏造成的各种自然灾难以及人为因素造成的安全责任事故等等……都给人们的社会生活带来极大的威胁,影响了社会的稳定.公共安全问题已经上升到一个重要高度,要求新闻媒体在我国现代化建设和国家信息文化安全方面,肩负起历史的责任,牢牢把握正确舆论导向,进一步提高舆论引导水平,为我国经济社会发展营造良好的舆论环境.     

Framing innocence: an experimental test of the effects of wrongful convictions on public opinion

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Discourse about criminal justice in the USA increasingly revolves around wrongful convictions. Research has documented the emergence of the “innocence...     

Media coverage and public opinion of the O. J. Simpson trial: Implications for the criminal justice system

This article considers some of the beneficial and detrimental influences of media coverage of celebrity criminal trials based on a survey administered during the criminal trial of O.J. Simpson. Analysis indicates those who exhibited a stronger psychological involvement with Simpson developed through repeated media exposure were more likely to believe his innocence. African American respondents also were more likely to believe in Simpson's innocence than were others. Gender had no effect on beliefs of Simpson's guilt or innocence. Those with a strong belief in the fairness of the United States justice system more strongly supported unrestricted media coverage of the trial. Anglo Americans more than African Americans believed Simpson's lawyers used the media effectively for their advantage. Learning about the justice system by following the case resulted in increased interpersonal discussions about the legal system.     

Implications of the Minority Identity Development Model for jury consultants

Jurors from racial and ethnic minority, groups are often stereotyped as favoring the “underdog.” The problem with this generalization is that it ignores minority identity development as a within-group variable. This paper describes five stages of the Minority Identity Development (MID) Model and its implications for jury consultants.     

电子治理视野下新闻舆论监督模式的选择

在电子治理的视野中,新闻舆论监督具有自己的独特形态。当前我国的新闻舆论监督存在着一些问题。完善新闻舆论监督的一个重要途径是选择建立合作监督的网络模式。     

Crime,public opinion and trial courts: An analysis of sentencing policy

Much recent research on public opinion and trial courts demonstrates a link between local attitudes and sentencing in highly visible criminal cases. However, such crimes are not typical of most trial court work. Our research examines relationships between public opinion, crime rates, and sentencing in routine cases, including armed and unarmed robbery, burglary, larceny, and possession of narcotics. The research includes over 6000 cases and measures public opinion in all twenty of Florida's trial court circuits. Except for possession of narcotics, no significant correlations were discovered between public opinion and sentencing, but high crime rates generally produced lenient sentences. The research questions the impact of public opinion on most litigation and suggests that judicial elites usually act without concern for local public opinion.