Beyond the Target State: Foreign Military Intervention and Neighboring State Stability

Despite the abundance of research on the consequences of foreign military intervention for target countries, scant research has been devoted to the possible regional externalities of intervention. This article examines whether large-scale armed operations affect the likelihood of civil conflict onset in countries neighboring the target of intervention. We posit that interventions against the target regime reduce the government's ability to maintain full control over the entire national territory by diminishing its coercive and administrative capacity. This might, in turn, result in safe haven possibilities for neighboring rival groups in the target and facilitate the transnational spread of arms and other illicit activities that increase the risk of civil conflict onset in the contiguous countries. Armed interventions supportive or neutral toward the target state, on the other hand, bolster the government's coercive capacity and mitigate ongoing crises in the target. Such armed intrusions might therefore undermine the likelihood of internal armed conflict in neighboring countries triggered by the factors associated with “bad neighborhoods”: safe haven possibilities, transnational spread of arms, and refugee flows. To substantiate these claims, we use time-series, cross-national data for the 1951–2004 period. Results indicate that hostile interventions increase the probability of civil conflict onset in connected countries while supportive interventions have a regional pacifying effect, reducing the likelihood of domestic unrest in countries neighboring the target state. Neutral interventions, on the other hand, are unlikely to have any discernible effect on regional stability. Further, the primary motive of intervention, whether for humanitarian or other purposes, has no statistically significant impact on the stability of neighboring countries.     

The Method is the Message: The Current State of Political Communication Research

Formal journalism ethics, as laid out in codes of ethics by journalism associations and the like, is part of a wider debate on media ethics that has been triggered in the Middle East due to the advent of global media in the region. This study compares journalism codes from Europe and the Islamic world in order to revisit the widespread academic assumption of a deep divide between Western and Oriental philosophies of journalism that has played a role in many debates on political communication in the area. The analysis shows that there is a broad intercultural consensus that standards of truth and objectivity should be central values of journalism. Norms protecting the private sphere are, in fact, more pronounced in countries of the Near and Middle East, North Africa, and in the majority of Muslim states in Asia than is generally the case in Europe, although the weighing of privacy protection against the public's right to information is today a component of most journalistic codes of behavior in Islamic countries. Obvious differences between the West and many Islamic countries are to be found in the status accorded to freedom of expression. Although ideas of freedom have entered formal media ethics in the Middle East and the Islamic world, only a minority of documents limit the interference into freedom to cases where other fundamental rights (e.g., privacy) are touched, whereas the majority would have journalists accept political, national, religious, or cultural boundaries to their work. Despite existing differences between Western and Middle Eastern/Islamic journalism ethics and in contrast to the overall neoconservative (Islamist) trends in societal norms, formal journalism ethics has been a sphere of growing universalization throughout the last decades.     

Public Goods or Political Pandering: Evidence from IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe

This article uses empirical evidence from Latin American and East European International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs from 1982 to 2001 to analyze the nature and the extent of preferential lending practices by the IMF. Unlike prior work, which focused on narrow political interference from large IMF member states, the present analysis differentiates between such narrow interests and the Fund's international systemic responsibilities, which may justify the preferential treatment of systemically important countries to prevent broader regional or global crises. The empirical results suggest that systemically based deviations from technocratic impartiality predominate in situations—such as the Latin American debt crisis—where international financial stability is under serious threat. Under such circumstances, economically important countries do receive preferential IMF treatment but only when experiencing severe crises, while narrow "private goods" considerations are largely sidelined. When systemic threats are less immediate—such as in Latin America and Eastern Europe in the 1990s—IMF favoritism reflects a more volatile and region-specific mix of private and public considerations in line with the changing interests of powerful Western nations in the developing world.     

The emergence of post-crisis regional financial institutions in Asia—with a little help from Europe

Faced with the negative impact of regional and global financial crises, Asian countries have established joint-solution mechanisms over the last two decades in order to better protect themselves from short-term outflows of capital and from currency speculation. Despite some progress being made in regional financial cooperation, especially by the countries of the ASEAN+3 grouping, the overall degree of financial integration within the region remains surprisingly low, however. This contrasts sharply with the keen interest of many Asian countries in gaining a stronger voice within the multinational finance institutions (MFIs), and especially within the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Unable to initiate major governance reforms of the MFIs, Asian countries have not only set up regional support liquidity arrangements but also their own multilateral development banks (MDBs). While the USA and to some extent Japan have tried to prevent a rebalancing of power within the global financial architecture, major European countries have actively supported these changes by becoming founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Taking a New Institutional Economics (NIE) perspective, the paper aims to explain why some regional financial institutions are more attractive for Asian countries than others and why European countries are supporting Asia’s attempt to gain more weight in global financial governance (GFG)—and, thus, contribute to the acceleration of the power shift away from the USA toward emerging Asian economies in general and China in particular.     

Tempering Optimism about Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia

This article tempers the argument of deterrence optimists, who make the case that nuclear deterrence has maintained the peace between regional nuclear rivals. In particular, it challenges the assertion by Kenneth Waltz that “nuclear deterrence has passed all of the many tests it has faced” among regional rivals in South Asia. Examining two major regional military crises, this article notes that, first, nuclear deterrence was not the key factor ending these crises. Instead, nonnuclear factors involving American diplomacy, which provided the participants with timely exit strategies, ended the crises. Second, if these crisis-ending factors had not been present, there was a strong possibility of significant military escalation, and nuclear deterrence would not have averted such an escalation. The article concludes by noting that, in regions where deterrence optimism is not well supported, Washington may continue intervening in crises between nuclear rivals, and, anticipating such a U.S. approach, regional rivals could become involved in repeated military crises over the long term.     

美国金融危机阴影下的东南亚经济

美国金融危机引发全球性经济衰退,对东南亚各国的虚拟与实体经济同样产生严重影响。由于东南亚国家在经历了1997年金融危机之后执行了较为审慎的宏观经济与金融改革,国家层面、地区和泛地区层面的危机应对举措得力,2008年大部分国家的经济基本良好,金融体制依然健康,资本和外贸市场的动荡仍在可控范围内。但随着美国金融危机“溢出”效应的加强,2009年东南亚的实体经济还会受到进一步损害,金融和经济增长仍面临更为严峻的挑战和考验。     

欧盟的中亚援助实践研究——以向欧洲输送石油和天然气国家间(INOGATE)项目为例

自1991年中亚5国独立以来,欧盟就开始向中亚国家提供政府援助,截至2006年欧盟共向中亚国家提供了13.9亿欧元的援助资金。在2007年前的欧盟中亚援助政策中,尤以独联体技术援助计划(TAC IS)的地位最为突出。通过该计划,欧盟向中亚国家投入了6.5亿的援助资金,在中亚地区启动了包括向欧洲输送石油和天然气国家间(INOGATE)项目在内的一系列地区性援助项目。通过向中亚国家提供的援助,欧盟在该地区树立起了温和友善的良好形象,从而为欧盟在2007年6月出台完整的中亚战略奠定了坚实的基础。尽管欧盟的中亚援助政策饱受来自内外部意见的各种批评,但欧盟对自身援助政策的不断反思及其援助活动的低姿态与援助范围的全面性,能为中国向发展中国家提供援助和制定中亚战略提供一些有益的启示。     

The Future of European Security

The transformation of transatlantic security relations after 9/11 remains the subject of extensive scrutiny. Academics and practitioners alike continue to seek an explanation for the stark divergences in national security policies that transpired in the period between 2001 and 2003. This paper argues that the existence of national strategic cultures in shaping states security policies and perspectives towards the use of force in particular is crucial to any comprehensive understanding of recent developments in transatlantic security. Furthermore, only when the perspectives of states from Central and Eastern Europe are brought more centrally into analysis can a clearer prognosis of the longer term consequences for both transatlantic security and Europe’s own ambitions to become a secruity actor be reached.     

Economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative

China launched an ambitious strategy known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 with an objective to promote regional economic growth and integration. The initiative was implemented primarily through massive investment in transportation infrastructure development among the Belt and Road countries to improve transportation connectivity and reduce trade costs. While such a strategy has been implemented for more than seven years, it remains unclear to what extent the investment of transportation infrastructure has affected the regional economic performance in various countries. To clarify this question, this study provides an in-depth assessment of BRI investment in transportation infrastructure using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Different from previous studies, the regional economic impact was evaluated through CGE simulations based on the actual investment data obtained from various sources. In addition, both the change of intraregional and interregional trade costs as a result of BRI transportation infrastructure investment was estimated. The results show that the transportation infrastructure investment in BRI has generated different impacts among regions. In particular, China, Central and West Asian countries have gained significant growth in GDP, employment, and economic welfare, whereas the economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment in the Central and West Europe is relatively minor. Overall, the research findings provide important policy implications for future transportation infrastructure investment in BRI countries and beyond.

     

Managing the conceptual gap on sovereignty in China–EU relations

While, historically, sovereignty is what Europeans invented and what the Chinese were forced to accept, today it is what Europeans try to bury and what the Chinese hold dear. A conceptual gap on sovereignty clearly exists between China and Europe which more often than not exerts a negative impact on their relationship. It breeds misunderstandings and disputes, makes it more difficult to reach agreements on many bilateral issues, and complicates China–Europe cooperation in third countries. But the conceptual gap on sovereignty does not prevent China and Europe from building a strategic partnership. Given that strengthening or weakening national sovereignty means totally different things to China and Europe, the two parties should jointly and proactively manage their divergence on sovereignty issues by mutual avoidance, mutual assurance, and mutual accommodation, in order to unlock sovereignty-related impasses in China–Europe relations.     

南亚地区局势及前景

南亚各国经历了各种政治变动和国际金融危机的冲击,地区合作意识在上升。但阿巴安全局势持续恶化,恐怖主义活动日益猖獗。印巴关系仍未摆脱猜疑和对立的局面。未来几年,安全阴霾仍将笼罩南亚地区,南亚各国在政治稳定、经济发展和地区安全等方面仍将面临严峻的挑战     

Annual report. Activities in 1980 and program for 1981

Promoting regional cooperation has been one of the EU priorities in South Eastern Europe since the mid-1990s. However, the EU's regional approach has often been weakened by the prevailing bilateral dimension of its policies towards SEE countries, and not adequately supported by stringent conditionality. Nevertheless, recent progress has been achieved in several specific areas of regional cooperation, such as trade, energy and parliamentary cooperation, and countries of the region are increasingly assuming responsibility on cooperation processes, as the transition from the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe to the regionally owned and led Regional Cooperation Council seems to prove.     

Europe’s Leadership Deficit

The European Project is currently experiencing the most serious crisis in its sixty year existence. Past crises have produced transformational leaders who used them to build more Europe. Today transformational leadership at the European level has been replaced with transactional and laissez faire leaders and is being challenged by charismatic populist ‘strong men’ who oppose more Europe. The structure of the EU, the rise of new media, the large flows of immigrants and refugees combined with economic stagnation and the decline of traditional ideologies have undermined the ability of leaders to shape effective policies. Emerging leaders will be grounded in the nation state and in a more Gaullist Europe.     

Private Military Services in the UK and Germany: Between Partnership and Regulation1

Abstract

Controversial cases such as the aborted coup in Equatorial Guinea and the employment of private contractors in the Abu Ghraib prison have brought the proliferation of private ‘mercenaries’ to worldwide attention. However, the privatization of military security is more diverse and complex than generally suggested. Specifically, one needs to distinguish between the use of private mercenaries in developing countries and the privatization of military services in Europe. Focussing on the latter, this article proposes that the privatization of military services in industrialized countries can be understood in terms of a shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’. As a consequence, the emergence of a private military industry in Europe is not only characterized by distinct forms of governance failure; European governments have also developed new modes of governance to control the industry. Using the United Kingdom and Germany as examples, this article examines two modes in particular: public private partnerships and governmental regulation.     

Europe Vis-À-Vis the Changing Regional Order in the MENA

Europe’s relations with the states of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are facing a critical juncture. When looking at a regional security architecture, Europe’s overarching interest is stability as it prevents conflict and state vacuums from menacing trade and energy supply routes, creating safe havens for terrorist organizations or hostile powers and fueling refugee flows toward Europe. However, compared to the past, European actors are confronted with a sharply new scenario in MENA that challenges these interests, given a progressive retrenchment of the United States, the rise of China, and MENA actors playing a more assertive role in regional politics and conflicts. The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is further accelerating these trends. Against this shifting background, MENA countries have intensified efforts to diversify their partnerships with rising global and regional players. European actors still struggle to come to grip with the multipolar scenario in the making—and to design an appropriate strategy to respond.     

Dominant party cohesion in comparative perspective: evidence from South Africa and Namibia

Africa's proliferation of dominant-party regimes is often regarded as an obstacle to democratization. Scholars and practitioners therefore face the task of understanding how and why constitutionally legitimate challenges to dominant party rule occur. This article asks: why do some presidential succession crises act as a catalyst to dominant party fragmentation when others do not? It argues that minority factions are more likely to defect from a dominant party when they have (1) been marginalized by the majority faction and (2) confidence in their mobilizational capacity. Factional purging is in turn traced to autocratic leadership and party under-bureaucratization, whilst high levels of factional self-confidence are linked to crises of dominance and the weakness of extant opposition parties.     

Why We Need to ‘Unpack’ Regions to Compare Them More Effectively

States are finding it increasingly difficult to provide good governance in response to today's problems in a globalised world, as they are often either too small or too big to cope with current crises. One of the strategies of states to remedy this situation is to construct regional levels of governance at the supranational or national level. This has led to the creation of diverse forms of regional governance worldwide, thereby ushering in a neo-Westphalian world of states and regions. In order to advance the research agenda of comparative regionalism, scholars need to ‘unpack’ regions along several conceptual dimensions. This includes seeing regions as economic areas, public goods spaces as well as actors in the international arena. In addition, a distinction needs to be made in studying the projects, processes and products of region building. Moreover, studying regions needs to take into account the discursive context of ‘regionalism speak’. Finally, more attention needs to be dedicated to the internal complexity of regionalisms. In sum, comparing regions is not a straightforward exercise, and in some case regions should not be compared with other regions, but with states.     

Regulation and Self-Regulation: The Role of Media Commissions and Professional Bodies in the Muslim World

This article examines the state of media regulation in Arab and other Muslim countries. Whereas most countries in Europe, including the emerging democracies of Central and Eastern Europe, and some of the African societies in transition have developed media commissions of different types, most Muslim countries are so far reluctant to ease the dominating state control of the media, especially in the audiovisual sector. A majority of journalists associations in the Middle East and North Africa still need to distance themselves from governments and ruling parties. Their major task is to ensure observance of ethical standards, a task in which they have to struggle with the desires of governments and parliaments to make excessive use of the judiciary to sanction journalists. So far, Muslim countries have yet to develop their own models for restructuring the changing media sector and for creating a viable system of checks and balances that would control the media in a democratic way. Governments should aim to develop a common understanding among regulatory bodies and media practitioners and thus to provide for common concepts of ethical standards. In these efforts, much can be learned from the wide range of experiences gained by the transitional societies of Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa during the last decade.     

The Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending: Evidence from Sectoral FDI Data

Our study contributes to the search for the elusive catalytic effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending on inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Recent scholarship has found that the catalytic effect is conditional on political regime and program stringency. We contribute to this literature by developing and testing a theory which describes how the catalytic effect also varies by economic sector. This is a departure from existing studies, which have tended to focus on aggregate FDI flows after crises. Our findings corroborate previous research, which finds that in general IMF lending has a substantial and negative effect on FDI. However, we find that the negative effect is concentrated in sectors that are highly dependent on external capital and have low sunk costs in the host country. Our findings are robust to several alternative explanations common in IMF literature, namely the importance of IMF program design and the ability of governments to make credible commitments to reform. Substantively, our findings suggest that investors are more likely to use IMF lending as an escape hatch in countries where FDI is dependent on external capital and has low sunk costs.     

欧盟东扩进入深水区（英文）

Since the drastic changes in Eastern Europe more than 20 years ago, the EU has been making tireless efforts on its eastern expansion project. That said, the attempt to include Ukraine as a member state recently triggered chaos in Europe that has not been seen in decades, flaring up a serious struggle between Russia and Western countries. Currently, EU enlargement faces a more complicated situation and is in urgent need of new measures.