Rootless Russia: Kaliningrad — Status and Identity

Kaliningrad, a penurious exclave on the Baltic Sea, geographically separated from Russia and the Confederation of Independent States, remains a largely ignored legacy of World War II. The imminent accession of Lithuania and Poland into the European Union underscores the anomaly of its situation. Disproportionate militarization and neglect in Soviet times left a graphic legacy of social and economic decay. Many principal questions remain to be settled: the status and role of the territory, its relationship with Russia, with the surrounding region, and with the European Union as a whole. These issues are greatly compounded by the lack among its residents of a clear historically formed self-perception. However, a new local identity appears to be germinating.

The absence of experience among Moscow bureaucrats with genuine federalism and their instinctive distrust of decentralization has so far only produced stillborn solutions of the problem of the status and role of the territory within the Russian Federation. The expansion of the European Union in the region presents an imperative for Russia to determine its future relationship with the Union. In so doing, Russia also needs to redefine itself. The eventual emergence of some unorthodox form of genuine local autonomy of the territory seems likely. Its appearance may serve as a catalyst for positive political development in Russia.     

俄罗斯人口危机与移民政策透视

地广人稀的俄罗斯在21世纪面临人口锐减和欧亚两部分人口分布失衡的压力,而强国富民战略的实施势必关涉劳动力资源配置,从西部、原苏联加盟共和国或邻国引入必要的人口是东部地区发展的先决条件。     

俄欧经贸合作的动因、特点及发展趋势

俄罗斯与欧盟开展与对方的经贸合作的目的不尽相同,然而十余年来,俄欧经贸合作全面迅速发展,成效十分显著,尤其在能源领域合作成果更是令世人瞩目。展望未来俄欧经贸合作的发展趋势,短期内仍将维持以能源合作为主的稳定发展态势,中长期有可能实现建立“统一经济空间”的战略目标。     

Between European and national role conceptions – the EU3 initiative regarding the Iranian Nuclear Programme

This paper addresses whether Germany, France and the UK (the EU3) – with the EU in the background – can shape their own approach to a common Europeanised position or even a European role conception regarding the Iranian Nuclear Programme. As the EU3 initiative appears situated between Europeanisation and national role conceptions, it seems that the EU3 members – after a coherent start – were finally inclined to readapt themselves to certain of their national role conceptions, resulting in a “mix” of national and European role patterns in the process leading up to 2016. Currently, this mix hints at still-prevailing hindrances involved in genuine European conflict management, although this outcome holds the promise of greater European coherence in the future.

Abbreviations: E3: Germany, France and UK (without formal support of the EU); EU: European Union; EU3: Germany, France, UK and the “High Representative for the Common Security and Foreign Policy of the European Union”; EU3?+?3: official designation of the contact group concerning the Iranian Nuclear Programme, consisting of the EU3, the USA, Russia and China; IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency; P5?+?1: informal designation of the contact group concerning the Iranian Nuclear Programme, consisting of the EU3, the USA, Russia and China (Permanent Security Council Members [P5] plus Germany); UK: United Kingdom; UNs: United Nations; UNSR: Security Council of the United Nations     

俄与欧盟关系中的能源因素

俄罗斯经济加入世界经济一体化的进程 ,在很大程度上取决于其与欧盟的相互关系。欧盟既是俄的贸易伙伴 ,也是俄经济的主要投资者和信贷者。目前 ,能源合作已成为俄罗斯与欧盟贸易往来的最主要方面。对于欧盟来说 ,天然气比煤、石油、电能等能源更具竞争力     

新世纪俄罗斯与中东欧国家关系探析

苏东剧变后，俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间的关系先一度紧张，后有所改善。此后，中东欧国家先后加入了北约和欧盟。在此过程中和过程结束后，俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间在一定程度上仍然相互敌视，它们之间依然存在着一些矛盾，但是，如较少考虑外部因素的影响，仅从相互关系现实的各个方面来看，双方的关系正不断地加强。这既体现出俄罗斯外交越来越务实的特点，也折射出俄罗斯对外交战略层次的考虑。     

The breakdown of the EU’s strategic partnership with Russia: from strategic patience towards a strategic failure

This article investigates the evolution of the European Union (EU)–Russia relationship to understand whether Russia’s violations of Ukraine’s territorial integrity in 2014 destroyed the EU–Russia strategic partnership. It uncovers fundamental differences in three key sectors—security, trade and energy—and regarding the broader design of their contractual relationship. Despite the appearance to the contrary, their relationship was never a well-functioning ‘partnership of choice’. Structural asymmetries contradictory approaches to and fundamentally different understandings of the role and utility of their relationship affected the EU–Russia relationship from the very beginning. The widening gaps were not addressed nor were the differences of the two actors acknowledged, let alone overcome. The confrontation over Ukraine was therefore not the cause but rather a symptom of deeply rooted problems. The blame for talking past each other and engaging in a marriage of convenience, rather than a real partnership, falls on both the EU and the Russian leadership.     

The common European security and defence policy and the ‘third‐country’ issue

The Common European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP) of the European Union (EU) was launched in 1999 and has been perceived as a landmark step toward European security cooperation, particularly in the field of crisis management. Still in its early stages, some difficult issues have become apparent. Of these, the so‐called ‘third‐country’ issue may prove to be among the most significant. This problem refers to the necessity of associating states outside the EU with CESDP. In this regard, three states stand out — the United States, Turkey and Russia — and this article considers their concerns and the European response in detail. This is prefaced by a general overview of how the third‐country problem emerged and what the EU has done to address it. It concludes by suggesting that third‐country considerations could well determine where and how EU‐led missions operating under the auspices of CESDP are deployed.     

从政治层面看演变中的中俄关系

20世纪80年代末90年代初苏联解体、冷战结束后,国际形势发生了新的变化。大国关系也处于全新的构筑之中。其显著的标志是美、俄、中、日、欧盟世界五大力量的相互关系带有根本性的调整。在这种国际环境背景下．中俄两国关系在以往中苏关系的基础上继续发展。逐步确立了中俄两国的战略协作伙伴关系。冷战后的两国关系呈现出三大特点两国关系稳定迅速发展;政治关系重于经济关系;变与不变同时存在。对于中俄关系。在发展趋势上我们要在努力争取长期稳定的睦邻友好合作关系的同时．关注两国关系中的不稳定因素,做到有备无患、未雨绸缪、趋利避害。     

国内外史学界关于俄乌关系史研究综述

苏联解体后,俄乌关系史成为国内外史学界特别是俄罗斯和乌克兰史学界研究的热点。目前,国内外学者在这一领域研究多集中在《佩列亚斯拉夫协议》及其影响、俄罗斯帝国版图内的乌克兰、乌克兰分离主义运动、乌克兰大饥荒、二战中的乌克兰、乌克兰独立等方面。由于从不同视角解读俄乌关系史,加之有些历史问题被人为政治化,学者们的研究结论存在明显差别。     

The EU's security actorness: the case of EUMM in Georgia

This article addresses conceptually the European Union (EU)'s security actorness, explaining its meaning, identifying the factors that are constitutive to the concept, and analyzing whether the EU is a security actor in Georgia, through its increased presence and engagement in the country and its eventual implications for the South Caucasus. The article argues that the complementary nature of the different EU tools deployed on the ground and their comprehensive nature have contributed to the EU's consolidation as a security actor in the South Caucasus. However, and despite the successful assessments of the European Union Monitoring Mission in the context of common security and defense policy development, the mission's deployment and its contribution to regional stability are influenced to a great extent by the role and involvement of external players, in particular in this case, that of Russia.     

The return of the empire? Russia's counteraction to transatlantic democracy promotion in its near abroad

Russia's recent actions in its neighbourhood have not only upset Western policies but have also reinvigorated arguments that Russia may be promoting autocracy to counteract democracy promotion by the European Union and the United States. They have also underlined a broader problem: that of how illiberal powers may react to democracy promotion, especially when their strategic interests are at stake. This article investigates these issues by studying Russia's interactions with the countries in its neighbourhood and democracy promoters. First, the article argues that even if Russia has contributed to the stagnation of democratization and ineffectiveness of democracy promotion in its neighbourhood, its actions do not constitute autocracy promotion and largely lack ideological underpinnings. Second, Russia's counteraction to democracy promotion stems from its ambitions of restoring its great power status, maintaining its regional influence, and perceiving Western policies as a threat to its interests. Third, when it considers its strategic interests undermined, Russia employs economic and military threats (sometimes incentives) against its neighbourhood countries to make the compliance with Western policies less preferable.     

Ukraine,Russia and the strategic partnership dynamics in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood: recalibrating the EU’s ‘self’, ‘we’ and ‘other’

The present contribution explores the changing relationship between the European Union (EU) and the two largest countries in its eastern neighbourhood, namely Ukraine and Russia, between 1991 and 2014. Taking the differential between the existence of the EU Strategic Partnership (SP) with Russia and the absence of such an arrangement in the relationship with Ukraine as a point of departure, it investigates how the EU has dealt with different aspirations and challenges stemming from its two largest eastern neighbours. Adopting the Social Identity Theory perspective, the contribution analyses the interrelationship between the evolution of the EU’s SP approach towards the eastern neighbours and the development of (particular dimensions of) the EU’s identity. It demonstrates how the process of categorization relating to the ideational ‘self’, ‘we’ and ‘other’ took place; and how only the EU’s relationship with Russia and not that with Ukraine has accumulated the discursive markers of a strategic partnership. The contribution, furthermore, analyses the challenges to the EU changing approach stemming from the 2013–2014 Ukraine crisis.     

The Road from Dayton to Brussels? The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and the Politics of War Crimes in Bosnia

Abstract

The tenth anniversary of the massacre of 7–8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys at Srebrenica in July 1995 set in stark relief the continuing salience of war crimes in the political life of Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the country now firmly on a path ‘from Dayton to Brussels’, dealing with the war crimes legacy is critical to its future development. Cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is a non-negotiable condition for further progress toward membership of the European Union and NATO's Partnership for Peace, while in the long-term, dealing with the legacy of war crimes is crucial to establishing lasting peace in Bosnia and in the region. This article examines the potential contribution of the ICTY to the restoration of peace in Bosnia in the context of debates about the role of post-conflict justice in societies in transition from war to peace and in the context of the international community's use of the war crimes issues as a political bargaining tool. It will be argued that the two are inextricably linked as short-term pragmatic advantages brought by cooperation work in tandem with longer-term goals of peace and reconciliation.     

Pushing the Boundaries of the Possible at the Margins of Peacekeeping: The Promises of ESDP–Russia Co-operation for Humanitarian Intervention1

While relatively little attention has been paid to the significance of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) as a newly emerged mechanism in the domain of international peacekeeping, even less research has been undertaken on the potential benefits of its external relations and co-operation with third countries. This article sheds light on such a potential by investigating the relations of the ESDP with the Russian Federation. The current debate on humanitarian intervention tends to reduce the analysis to a single plane of reality, namely the normative one, thus ignoring the material aspects of military intervention. The enlargement of the ontological horizon of research from normative to material factors uncovers the greatest advantage of ESDP–Russia co-operation for humanitarian intervention, namely their mutually complementary peacekeeping capacities. Whilst the European Union boasts a long-standing human rights culture, Russia could offer vast material resources both in terms of manpower and logistics. Ignoring this possible synergy between the ESDP and Russian capacities would be a considerable loss for the cause of humanitarian intervention. Joint operations conducted by the European Union, Russia, and NATO against genocidal governments, the “common enemies”, would not only enhance the cause of humanitarian intervention but also enable common actions and thus mitigate current tensions between the East and West. In many respects ESDP–Russia co-operation actually lags behind NATO–Russia relations.     

The bush administration's security strategy: Implications for transatlantic relations

There are signs of growing transatlantic estrangement over multiple international issues. An important catalyst for this estrangement is the National Security Strategy (NSS) that the Bush administration promulgated in September 2002, a document that is a detailed imperial blueprint. Despite its pretensions, however, it is not a global strategy, but instead appears to apply primarily to the 'Islamic Arc'--the territory from North Africa to the border of India. The administration's security strategy has important implications for the transatlantic relationship, since the United States is encouraging NATO to become a junior partner for missions throughout the Islamic Arc. Given the growing divergence in US and European interests and policy perspectives, the role that the Bush administration envisages for NATO is probably not sustainable. The 'West' was an artificial geostrategic concept that needed an extraordinarily threatening common adversary (the Soviet Union) to give it substance. The US and its allies will continue to drift apart strategically, and the Bush administration's security strategy may actually hasten that process. It is uncertain, however, whether the European Union will achieve the cohesion necessary to counterbalance US power. The main task facing statesmen on both sides of the Atlantic is to learn how to disagree about specific policies without becoming disagreeable.     

俄罗斯与欧盟经贸合作的问题与启示

在全球化背景下 ,研究俄罗斯与欧盟的经贸关系 ,对改善转型国家与市场经济发达国家的经济往来关系具有重要的借鉴意义。冷战后 ,俄罗斯与欧盟的关系发展较快 ,尤其是双边经济合作在不断加强。欧盟是俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴 ,而俄欧关系对欧盟也具有重要的战略意义。从贸易、投资及其他经济合作方式等多方面综合分析俄罗斯与欧盟的经贸合作关系 ,并对其中存在的问题进行深入探究 ,对于我们同俄欧的经贸合作具有重要的作用。     

The EU and Russia's conflicting regime preferences in Ukraine: assessing regime promotion strategies in the scope of the Ukraine crisis

This paper evaluates the competitiveness of the European Union (EU) and Russia's regime preferences in their foreign policies towards Ukraine in the scope of the on-going Ukraine crisis. It is argued that the underpinning geopolitical environment Ukraine currently resides in, wedged between two much larger powers (the EU and Russia), renders it a vulnerable target state for regime promotion from both sides. Indeed, since the 2004 Orange revolution in Ukraine, both the EU and Russia have had discernible regime promotion strategies in their foreign policies. The EU's regime promotion has focussed on facilitating democracy in Ukraine, along with more material interests (trade and strategic aims) while Russia has reacted with increasingly zero-sum policies which pursue its preference for having a loyal and Russian-facing regime in Ukraine. Ultimately, the increasing competitiveness of the EU and Russia has been a key factor in the onset of the Ukraine crisis, which offers important insight into the relationship between large powers and the smaller third states which lie in their overlapping spheres of influence.     

试论战后日苏关系的特点

战后日苏关系是影响东亚地区国际关系格局的一对重要的双边关系,同东亚地区其他国与国之间的双边关系相比战后日苏关系具有十分明显的特点;既有战胜国与战败国之间关系的特点,又有冷战中相互对立阵营中的主、配角之间的关系的特点。从地缘政治上看,日俄虽然是东北亚的邻国,但是由于历史的、现实的、经济的、文化的原因,两国关系又更多地表现出欧亚国家关系的特点。日苏两国在意识形态、社会制度和主流政治文化上存在很大的差异,因此,战后日苏关系又呈现出社会主义国家和资本主义国家关系的特点。     

俄罗斯与东北亚天然气合作

俄罗斯是世界天然气资源最为丰富的国家,其远东和西伯利亚占全俄土地面积的3/5,地处东北亚。东北亚是21世纪天然气消费增长的主要地区,同时又是能源相对短缺的地区;东北亚国家俄罗斯、中国、日本、韩国、朝鲜在天然气资源、资金、技术、劳务方面有很强的互补性,具备合作条件。但因为还存在一些问题,所以长期以来东北亚天然气合作的进展并不顺利。