Presidential roles and rhetoric

Traditional literature on the public dimensions of the American presidency suggests that the office has a significant impact upon the political lives of Americans and that contemporary presidents frequently appeal for public support to pressure other government elites. This study systematically analyzes rhetorical references to the presidency by examining a president's articulation of presidential roles in public speeches and press conferences. This study finds that Johnson, Nixon, and Carter did rhetorically refer to presidential roles, especially when confronted by crisis and controversy. The implication is that when confronted by serious controversy, presidents tell Americans about the responsibilities of the presidency in an effort to mobilize public support.     

Explaining and Forecasting Leaders' Decisions: A Poliheuristic Analysis of the Iran Hostage Rescue Decision

In an increasingly dangerous world, forecasting national leaders' decisions during crises is a central concern of policy analysts. But with a wide range of specific military responses available to leaders, pinpointing a likely decision can be difficult. This essay argues that the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making is a useful tool for aiding policy analysts in forecasting the decisions of national leaders. The theory's emphasis on a noncompensatory decision dimension facilitates the elimination of many of the possible decision alternatives, reducing uncertainty. Then, surviving alternatives are weighed against additional, nontrivial dimensions, producing a likely decision. As an illustrative case, I examine Carter's decision to implement the hostage rescue mission, demonstrating that Carter ruled out alternatives that failed to satisfy criteria on the noncompensatory decision dimension—reelection. The president's final choice was selected from the remaining alternatives according to its ability to simultaneously maximize net benefits with respect to military and strategic concerns. Following a comparison of the analysis with compensatory models of decision making, I suggest a general forecasting framework rooted in the poliheuristic theory. The theory can be applied to international crises provided that policy analysts obtain information concerning (1) the leader's noncompensatory decision criteria, (2) the set of alternatives that satisfy those criteria, and (3) the expected net benefits of the remaining alternatives on other dimensions (i.e., the military and strategic dimensions).     

Mutual and unilateral cooperation in arms race settings

Accounts of numerous historical and contemporary arms races suggest that cooperation, in the form of a slowdown, freeze, or reduction, is uncommon and difficult to achieve. Analytical and empirical results from the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game which, it is argued, closely resemble the structure and decision problems facing arms race participants, demonstrate that cooperation is unlikely but possible. In this analysis, the analytical conditions under which cooperation is individually “rational” (in an expected payoff sense) are discussed in detail. Then, the stumbling blocks to cooperation, even when individually rational, are discussed. No absolute solution is offered since none appears to exist. However, institutional, structural and mediating devices which can make cooperation more likely are suggested.     

泰国危机综合征：越南重蹈泰国覆辙？

在深入分析泰国1997年货币危机的特征、发生机理的基础上，本文探讨了最近几年越南的经济形势，认为当前越南的经济困境具备泰国危机综合征的典型特征。未来越南经济形势具有不确定性，能否最终避免重蹈越南覆辙，取决于越南政府能否有效控制通胀、有序调整资产价格和改善贸易收支。     

Fifteen minutes of glory: A Burkean analysis of press coverage of Oliver north's testimony

Public esteem for Lt. Col. Oliver North prior to his testimony before the Iran‐contra Committee was low. As he testified, his popularity and support soared, and then tailed off after he left the witness stand. This analysis suggests that these dramatic shifts in audience response to the drama of Oliver North are attributable to the evocation of different audience values before, during, and after his testimony by press coverage of his story which placed differential emphasis on the elements of Kenneth Burke's dramatistical pentad. The differential impacts of print and electronic media to these audience effects are assessed through content analysis. Implications for political processes in general in our media society are discussed.