An elementary proof of the conditions for a generalized Condorcet paradox

We give an elementary proof of the relationship between the possibility of a generalized majority rule cycle and the number of voters, V, the number of alternatives, A, and the number required for a majority, M.     

An Empirical Example of the Condorcet Paradox of Voting in a Large Electorate

Social choice theory suggests that the occurrence of cyclical collective preferences should be a widespread phenomenon, especially in large groups of decision-makers. However, empirical research has so far failed to produce evidence of the existence of many real-world examples of such, and none in large electorates. This paper demonstrates the existence of a real cyclical majority in a poll of Danish voters' preferred prime minister, using pair-wise comparisons. This result is compared with those of a similar poll, but by using different voting methods, each resulting in different choices. The example demonstrates the empirical reality of cyclical collective preferences and the importance of the choice of institutions.     

民间组织的兴起和党的执政能力建设

我国民间组织的兴起是改革开放以来经济、政治和文化发展的必然。民间组织的发展对我国社会治理具有积极影响,同时,对党的执政能力也提出了新的考验,突出表现在对党的社会影响力和党的社会掌控能力的考验。健全及时了解和反映人民群众利益要求的沟通机制,积极探索增强民间组织中党组织工作渗透力的途径,转变党的管理方式,这是党必须采取的应对措施。     

Elections,the curse of competence and credence policies

Public Choice - A returning political phenomenon is the impact of “office seekers” in democracies. We examine the consequences when the public faces a new type of two-dimensional...     

Valence beyond consensus: Party competence and policy dispersion from a comparative perspective

Part of the growing literature on valence politics interprets the electoral impact of party competence perceptions as resulting from consensus over ideological positions in contemporary societies. The relationship between valence politics and consensus, however, is usually based on either disputable theoretical assumptions or on single-country analyses. In this paper I empirically test the assumptions linking valence politics and policy consensus in a comparative perspective across 21 political systems. The results show no evidence that valence is associated with consensus, and some evidence that the electoral effect of valence is correlated with certain forms of policy dispersion, such as ideological party polarisation. The implication that perceptions of party competence are significantly informed by spatial-based considerations is discussed.     

Political Influence,Economic Interests and Endogenous Tax Structure in a Computable Equilibrium Framework: With Application to the United States, 1973 and 1983

We consider the properties of a computable equilibrium model ofa competitive political economy in which the economic interestsof groups of voters and their effective influence on equilibriumpolicy outcomes can be explicitely distinguished and computed.The model incorporates an amended version of the GEMTAP taxmodel, calibrated to data for the United States for 1973 and1983. Emphasis is placed on how the aggregation of GEMTAPhouseholds into homogeneous groups affects the numericalrepresentation of interests and influence for representativemembers of each group.     

Endogenous bargaining power and the theory of small group collective choice

Contrary to some criticism (Musgrave and Musgrave, and West) the small group collective choice model may yield a determinate, Pareto optimal solution even with all or none bargaining. Such bargaining as well as the solution are implied by the basic assumptions of the theoretical model.     

Explaining Regional and Local Government: An Empirical Test of the Decentralization Theorem

Decentralization of policy provision is omnipresent yet we are not able to sufficiently account for the extent of this phenomenon. The decentralization theorem explains the decentralization of policy provision as a trade‐off between heterogenous preferences, interjurisdictional spillovers (externalities), and economies of scale. Empirical tests of the theorem have been hampered by a measurement problem on the independent as well as on the dependent variable. This article tackles these problems by using a new data set that combines a measure of externalities and scale effects of policies obtained from an expert survey with the actual provision of policies across governmental tiers in 40 countries. The analyses provide an empirical test of the decentralization theorem by showing that decentralization of policy provision is to a large extent determined by functional characteristics of policies and heterogenous preferences but other country‐specific variables, such as democracy, economic development, and European subsidies, also matter.     

From political conflict to partisan evaluations: How citizens assess party ideology and competence in polarized elections

Recent comparative electoral research shows that both ideological and competence voting are influenced by the degree of party system polarization. However, while the former association is uncontroversial, investigations on the latter have led to contradicting results. This study takes one step back, arguing that polarization rather affects how voters perceive party ideological positioning and competence. Building on literature linking elite polarization to mass partisanship, the study argues that party identification is a strong moderator of party evaluations in polarized elections. Hypotheses are tested with multilevel logit models on a pooled data set of European Election Studies from 1994 to 2009. Results show that partisans are more likely to view their preferred party as the most competent and ideologically close when the environment is polarized, while there is no such effect for non-partisans.     

Reverse mortgages and aircraft parts: The arcane referendum and the limits of citizen competence

Whether from a sincere belief in the ability of the body politic to arrive at optimal decisions, or in an instrumental attempt to generate legitimacy for policy choices, a large number of jurisdictions use the referendum to settle political questions. This practice relies on assumptions about voter interest and competence that merit empirical testing. We conduct a series of survey experiments that leverage variation in wording from a set of arcane ballot provisions from elections in Texas. We find that (1) voters are largely confused about the meaning of such ballot provisions; (2) efforts to improve the wording of such provisions and educate voters has minimal impact on their comprehension; (3) voters are easily persuaded to change their vote when given the chance; and (4) voters rely heavily on default answers (especially “yes”) in casting their votes. On the whole, the evidence suggests that narrow referendum questions that lack clear ideological or informational cues overwhelm the limits of citizen competence, and are thus likely to result in unstable and unreliable decisions.     

特定公权异化的内生性根由和现实性语义诠释

特定公权异化是在特定阶级国家中,特定公权利和特定公权力的相互异化。它具有内生性根由,在不同的社会历史发展阶段存在动态表现,主要体现为生产力水平的先决作用和生产关系的直接决定作用。特定公权异化的内在结构共分为合法异化、异化风险、隐性异化、异化入罪四个层次。从哲学范畴分析特定公权异化的成因主要有三个方面,即微环境外在性诱导、公共职能主体意识缺失、群众联系秩序链断裂,这是对特定公权异化的现实性语义诠释。     

Benefits and costs of the 55 mph speed limit: New estimates and their implications

The national 55 mile-per-hour speed limit was in effect from 1974 to 1987, and over the years many analysts have attempted to measure and compare its costs (enforcement and travel time) and benefits (safety and fuel economy). In 1984 a committee of the National Research Council completed a major study of the speed limit. The following article completes the committee's calculations; summarizes the results in units of money, lives, and travel time; and divides these effects between rural interstates and all other roads. Over a range of plausible dollar values for extra travel time, the cost of saving a life is estimated to be much higher on rural interstates than on other affected roads—and higher than the cost of saving a life by other highway safety measures as well. Hence, proponents of higher speed limits on the rural interstates have a strong case in the debate, which continues in the state legislatures.     

The effect of socioeconomic policy and competence messages on populist radical right support: Evidence from a pre-election survey experiment

Does highlighting socioeconomic policy considerations or mainstream parties’ government competence reduce support for populist radical right (PRR) parties? Such “defuse” messages may attract PRR voters without alienating mainstream parties’ core electorate and thus, have advantages over an accommodative strategy. This study tests four “defuse” messages in an original survey experiment on a sample of 1,786 likely PRR voters in the context of the 2017 German federal election. The findings show that potential PRR voters are hardly swayed by these messages. This result is in notable contrast to findings from prior experimental studies about the malleability of PRR support. Exploratory analyses suggest that some of these null findings may mask heterogeneities. Both respondents who were surveyed during the first days of fieldwork and those with less political knowledge responded to some treatments in the expected way. Overall, these findings point to a limited responsiveness of PRR voters to “defuse” messages.